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WILL TRUMP CUT A DEAL WITH IRAN?
Despite reports to the contrary, some in the Israeli leadership believe the president is considering paying off the Iranian government to open the Strait of Hormuz
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America’s love affair with Israel has hit an astonishing bump because President Donald Trump, in a political panic over the economic fallout from the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is now “talking to Iran,” as an Israeli insider put it, about ending the current impasse in return for a payment from the United States of at least $25 billion, and possibly much more, to the government in Tehran. In return, Iran would end its blockade and open the strait to all traffic, ending a crisis for Trump, the US, and much of the world.
One motive for Trump’s extraordinary step—I was not told how or by whom Trump’s offer was communicated—may be personal. The president, I was told, “no longer trusts Israel. He now believes he was misled” by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the potential for success of the recent joint US-Israeli bombing attack, a goal of which was to trigger an overthrow of the religious leadership in Iran. The president is said not to share Israel’s existential concern about the need to destroy or neutralize the large depot of partially enriched uranium that is allegedly stored in at least three deep tunnels in Iran. Iran as a member of the world’s nuclear club may be an existential threat for the Israeli leadership, but not for the president of the United States.
“He wants out,” the Israeli insider told me, and the Israeli leadership “is very upset because Trump”—in his fear of the political cost to him of a continuing blockade of the strait “has shown a willingness to ignore Israeli interests and desires.” People in the Israeli leadership “say he’s lost it. He doesn’t think of the consequences. You cannot do negotiations with Iran because every step we make he immediately broadcasts it on his social media posts. He is so obtuse.”
One clear sign of Trump’s indecision came this morning when the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg published similar stories quoting Trump telling “his aides” to prepare for a lengthy US Navy blockade of the strait in an effort to compel cash-strapped Iraq to agree to giving up the nation’s stockpile of partially enriched uranium. The Journal depicted the offer as demonstrating that Trump, “who always seeks a quick and salable victory, is devoid of a silver bullet.”
The Israeli insider told me that the reports accurately reflected the conflicting opinions inside the administration about how to resolve the crisis, given the widespread belief that the Iranian leadership, facing steep losses of income, will eventually have to give in to economic pressure.
It was not known if the White House aides providing the news media briefing were aware of the President’s interest in opening the strait via a payoff to the Iranian government.
The Israeli leadership “had high hopes” for the most recent air war. It was met by a vigorous and region-wide Iranian missile and drone counterattack, the insider said, but Trump “is so impatient.” Another sore point, I was told, is the White House’s easy acceptance of the notion that “Iran had more of a claim to the strait than Oman and the United Arab Emirates, both of whom border on the waterway. Why does Iran have a special claim? Because Trump accepted it? We”—the Israelis—“were left with no cards to play.”
It is understood in Israel, I was told, that Trump was prepared to sweeten the deal for the Iranian government, if needed, to open the strait in the hopes of giving the Republican Party better chances in the fall congressional elections. Long-standing sanctions could be dropped and more billions found.
The concern about Trump’s eagerness to make a deal to open the strait, even if it involves a huge payment to Iran’s government, is known to a few present and retired Israeli military leaders. One retired senior officer, asked for his view of what is widely seen as a crisis, told me, “Yes. Trump is more than happy to fuck Bibi and us all the way. Our ingenious PM wants the war again, evaporating their [Iran’s] oil industry and electricity. Not a good idea. I am against starving the Iranian people. And the Gulf Arabs and the world too will pay the price. My solution: the blockade [now under way in the strait]. But this needed American/world long term perseverance. Trump is not built for that.”
I was subsequently told about a recent White House meeting on the ongoing Iranian war that abruptly ended on a bizarre note. The senior leaders of the administration’s foreign policy team—Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Cain, among others—were there, along with the usual aides and notetakers, and as the meeting went on Trump clearly was losing interest. He suddenly brightened after about twenty minutes and excitedly began talking about his planned ballroom, then under construction despite a disputed court order to desist. He showed his national security leaders a slide show of the ballroom-to-be, as put together by the contractor.
At that point Iran and Israel, and life and death, no longer seemed to matter.