Yesterday evening, several media outlets reported that in a recent post on Truth Social President Trump announced that, starting today, the United States would begin escorting ships trapped in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. It wasn’t clear whether Trump plans a naval escort operation that also extends—if not immediately, then at some point soon—to ships that wish to enter the Gulf via the Strait to load up on Persian Gulf oil. Whatever its scope, the president said he would be moving forward with “Project Freedom.”
Before getting into the implications of what Trump appears to have in mind, it’s important to be clear about what he said. Here, with his trademark random capitalization, is a segment of his Truth Social post:
“Countries from all over the World, almost all of which are not involved in the Middle Eastern dispute going on so visibly, and violently, for all to see, have asked the United States if we could help free up their Ships, which are locked up in the Strait of Hormuz, on something which they have absolutely nothing to do with — They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders! For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business. Again, these are Ships from areas of the World that are not in any way involved with that which is currently taking place in the Middle East. I have told my Representatives to inform them that we will use best efforts to get their Ships and Crews safely out of the Strait. In all cases, they said they will not be returning until the area becomes safe for navigation, and everything else. This process, Project Freedom, will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all. The Ship movement is merely meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong — They are victims of circumstance. This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran. Many of these Ships are running low on food, and everything else necessary for large-scale crews to stay on board in a healthy and sanitary manner. I think it would go a long way in showing Goodwill on behalf of all of those who have been fighting so strenuously over the last number of months. If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully. “
Let’s just accept something that, on the face of it, seems highly improbable, namely that the White House switchboard has been besieged by calls from leaders around the world pleading with Trump to escort their ships that are stuck in the Persian Gulf safely through the Strait and out to open sea. Why is this unlikely? Because, as I’ll discuss in a moment, if Trump does follow through on his announcement, the war could escalate. And barring Israel—and perhaps its ally the United Arab Emirates—no country that I know of wants that to happen. It’s well understood that a resumption of full-on war will drive the price of oil and many other commodities—liquefied natural gas, fertilizer, diesel, aluminum, and helium, for example—even higher, and could possibly precipitate a global recession that will drag all countries down. Beyond that, once active fighting resumes, it could spread beyond the Persian Gulf in ways that may now be hard to anticipate.
Even if one grants for the sake of argument that Trump is responding to a worldwide request for “humanitarian” assistance, there are some serious problems with what the president seems to have in mind.
The Iranians are not about to let a US Navy escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz go unchallenged and will in fact do their best to make sure that it proves short-lived and unsuccessful. Their success in closing the Strait—and thereby bottling up about one-third of global crude oil exports—has given them a critical source of leverage that they plan to use whenever negotiations with the United States begin in earnest. Iran’s leaders are not going to give up this advantage. In particular, they want the economic pain Americans feel to increase so that Trump is forced to end the war on terms that Iran deems acceptable, including a permanent end of the war with provisions to ensure that Israel and the US will not attack again, the lifting of US economic sanctions on Iran, and an arrangement that allows Iran to charge a fee on countries who want guaranteed safe passage for oil tankers and cargo ships flying their flags.
It’s not obvious that the US Navy can do what Trump apparently wants it to do: escort a steady stream of commercial ships through the Strait. How can it do so when it doesn’t have the number of destroyers on site needed to fulfill this ambitious mission? The information on the precise number of Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers presently deployed in CENTCOM’s area of responsibility varies, but the figure most frequently reported is 12. Typically, two to three destroyers are part of an aircraft carrier strike group; carriers are gigantic and thus tempting targets for Iranian drones and missiles. Even if only two are assigned to defend each of the three carriers now deployed to the region, that would leave six available for escorting oil tankers through the Strait and for enforcing the American naval blockade against Iran. According to at least one source, as many as 18 destroyers are on site. If three of the 18 were tasked with defending each of the three aircraft carriers, nine would be available for blockade and escort missions, and a dozen if each carrier were defended by only two destroyers. But all of this assumes that, whatever the true number of destroyers, all of them would always be available, rather than some being in port for repair or maintenance. Also, keep in mind that some 1,000 tankers are trapped in the Gulf. Not every one of them will have to be escorted through the Straits; but even if, say, a third ask for protection to cross the Strait, that will place an unsustainable burden on nine destroyers, even if the tankers make their way to open sea in very small batches.
The number of tankers needing protection won’t be the biggest problem facing the destroyers doing escort duty. Iran will try to make the escort operation as hazardous as possible for US destroyers, and it has many means at its disposal for that purpose. They include thousands of armed speedboats (the so-called mosquito fleet), short-range onshore mobile anti-ship missiles—such as the Nasr-1, Zafar, and Noor—and an estimated 24 mini subs. Iran could use all of these assets to contest the escort operation.
Once a tanker gets hit by a missile or a mine or has a close call, how many others will sign up to be escorted? Quite apart from the fear that the owners of tankers will have about the safety of their vessels and crew, insurers will almost certainly exercise their contractual option to refuse coverage to vessels that insist on traversing a war zone.
There’s currently no ceasefire in place between Iran and the US—the US blockade constitutes an act of war under international law, like all blockades do. But a blockade is one thing; a resumption of full-scale war is quite another, meaning a return to the destruction and death that characterized the fighting between February 28 and April 8. Trump’s apparent plan to escort shipping through the Gulf will therefore almost certainly lead to a major escalation, and this time around the war may be even harder to contain, let alone stop.
It’s entirely possible that Trump’s Truth Social post announcing his intention to order the US Navy to escort ships through the Strait won’t amount to anything. The president is a prolific user of social media and doesn’t act on every threat he makes or plan he floats. Already senior administration officials seem to be backpedaling. What the president has in mind, they say, won’t involve American warships escorting tankers through the Strait: the US, joined by other (unnamed) countries, will limit itself to locating mines as well as providing ships information on the safest routes to take as they try and make their way from the Strait.
This wouldn’t be much of a service, since the tankers would be left to fend for themselves if they come under attack from Iran. Imagine that you are the company that owns a large tanker fleet. Is this a risk you’d take? Besides, no matter what these officials may say, the president’s Truth Social post stated specifically that “we have told these Countries [the ones who have asked the US to ensure that their ships can cross the Straits safely] that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways.”
There’s another possibility we must consider. At the end of his post, Trump warned that “If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully.” There have already been reports that the president is considering a new round of attacks on Iran in order to force it to make bigger concessions during negotiations. But Trump knows that the war is deeply unpopular, including among GOP voters, and that Republicans in Congress worry that the Democrats could tap into anti-war sentiment and voters’ anger over the price increases to win the House and even the Senate in the November midterm elections. If Iran were to fire on a US warship escorting tankers through the Strait, however, the president could resume the war on self-defense grounds—and add, for good measure, that since he acted in response to an Iranian attack, the limitations stipulated in the War Powers Act don’t apply any longer. This may not reflect Trump’s thinking, but we’d be foolish to rule out the possibility that it could.