The new Trump administration narrative on the Iran war has two parts:
1) Project Freedom, which Trump announced the other day as plan to open the Gulf in response to appeals to him from around the world, has succeeded but has been suspended in response to requests from Pakistan, the mediator between the US and Iran to allow space for a settlement;
2) The larger war against Iran, Epic Fury, begun on Feb 28, has achieved its aims. The US has therefore won.
On the first claim: Why would a plan, supposedly launched in response to a worldwide appeal (from which countries, incidentally?), be suspended after barely one day if it was working as planned—especially given that its success would have deprived Iran of its most important source of leverage?
On the second claim: The Islamic Republic absorbed substantial punishment from a superpower joined by the most powerful military force in the Middle East, yet there has been no “regime change,” splits within Iran’s government, or a grass-roots uprising; Iran has not wavered from any of its demands or blinked in response to American threats; some 1,000 lb of 60% enriched uranium remains within Iran; American bases, US Persian Gulf allies, and Israel all sustained substantial damage from Iranian drone and missiles; Iran’s stockpile of drones and missiles is far from depleted; the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before Feb 28, remains closed; the price of oil and other critical commodities (eg: fertilizer and helium, the latter essential for making advanced semiconductors), has skyrocketed, and there’s even speculations about a global recession (that seems unlikely); not even longstanding US allies support the war, and the majority of Americans now oppose it.
How does this add up to victory or even success in any reasonable sense of either term?