Moscow Threatens Mass Strikes on Kiev Center Should Zelensky Disturb Sacred V-Day Ceremonies
Starting at 00:00 on May 8th in SMO time, Russia has begun a theater-wide ceasefire in accordance with Putin’s yearly routine in honor of Victory Day celebrations.
Contrary to what many have assumed, Russia has never directly officially invited Ukraine to participate in the ceasefire, but rather announced that Russia itself would be implementing it, and that Ukraine was free to join. If it does not join and instead attempts to cause a provocation, Russia threatened to strike the center of Kiev, for which Maria Zakharova earlier warned foreign diplomatic missions to leave the city as a precaution:
The Russian Foreign Ministry called on countries to evacuate their embassies from Kyiv in connection with the inevitability of a strike by the Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv and decision-making centers, if Ukraine launches an attack on Moscow on May 9th.
“The Russian Foreign Ministry urgently calls on the authorities of your country/the leadership of your organization to approach this statement with the utmost responsibility and ensure the early evacuation from the city of Kyiv of personnel of diplomatic and other representative offices, as well as citizens in connection with the inevitability of a retaliatory strike by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on Kyiv, including on decision-making centers, in the event of the Kiev regime implementing its criminal terrorist plans on the days of celebrating the Great Victory,” said Maria Zakharova.
Russia-1 media outlet released a list of potential strikes:
In haughty defiance, the EU responded that they would not be evacuating:
EU will not evacuate its diplomats from Kiev after Russia warned them to leave amid possible escalation on May 9
“We will not change our position or our presence in Kiev. Russian attacks are unfortunately a daily reality in Kiev and elsewhere in Ukraine” — EU Commission spokesman Anouar El-Announi
On this note, Ukraine has been ramping up attacks on Russia via other neighboring countries, which is bringing Europe closer and closer to war with Russia.
The Russian Aerospace Forces detected a group of UAVs flying over Latvia to attack Russia, - Defense Ministry
▪️The Armed Forces of Ukraine attempted a terrorist attack on civilian infrastructure facilities in the St. Petersburg region.
▪️The Russian Aerospace Forces detected a group of six UAVs in Latvia’s airspace.
▪️At the same time, two French Rafale fighter jets and two F-16 fighter jets were detected in the air.
➖”Around four o’clock in the morning, the tracks of five out of six detected UAVs disappeared in the area of the city of Rezekne in eastern Latvia. The sixth UAV, after entering Russian airspace, was shot down by Russian air defense systems in the area of the settlement of Likhachevo (78 km southeast of Pskov)”, - the message said.
▪️As a result of the examination of the fallen debris, the aerial target attacking from Latvia’s airspace was identified as an An-196 ‘Lutiy’ UAV of Ukrainian production.
The drones were reportedly filmed via multiple angles in the Latvian skies, and were identified clearly as Ukrainian drones of the Lyuti variety, the same drone used to hit Perm, Russia just days ago.
In Latvia:
In Perm:
The Lyuti design and even sound are unmistakable.
“Friendly Fire” 😎
❗️Two Ukrainian drones got lost in Latvia.
One fell on an oil depot in Rezekne, and the other on a Riga-Daugavpils train.
But what was most interesting about this was that the Latvian authorities—via Brigadier General Egils Lescinskis—stated they refused to shoot down the drones due to the dangers it may pose to civilians:
Drones that flew into Latvia were not shot down due to a lack of certainty that this would not harm the civilian population or infrastructure, said the deputy head of the country’s Joint Staff for Operational Matters, Egils Lesčinskis.
However, they ultimately caused damage.
In other words, Latvia does not shoot down drones, but waves them right through to Russia territory.
This happens to be a very convenient excuse for letting Ukrainian drones transit their territory en route to Russia. The problem is, the drone appeared to target and successfully hit a Latvian oil storage tank, for reasons no one can explain.
Theories likewise point to Ukrainian drones transiting Kazakhstan, or something similar, during attacks on Perm in Russia. One novel theory by RWA—based on some insider info—very plausibly suggests that Ukraine is actually launching drones from civilian tankers in the Caspian Sea, as aided by Azerbaijan:
I have to revise my opinion on drone launches from the territory of Kazakhstan. I don't think that they are occurring. If Ukrainian drones could be freely launched from sparsely populated, "empty" areas of Kazakhstan - as I suspected -, they would be hitting key military-industrial/economic targets: Tyumen, Omsk, Novosibirsk, Barnaul, Tomsk, Novokuznetsk, Chelyabinsk, Yekaterinburg (circled in blue).
These cities are located quite close to the Kazakh border and would become immediate priority targets if Ukrainian agents could move through Kazakh territory and reliably launch drones (red dotted arrows). There have been repeated attempts at striking Chelyabinsk and Yekaterinburg, but so far unsuccessful, except for one case with the latter (blue dotted arrows). A Ukrainian drone recently crashed on Kazakh territory near Orsk (blue X). Earlier, Ukrainian drones crashed on what would be a reasonable drone approach towards Samara and Volgograd (also blue X).
Ukrainian drones are clearly flying through Kazakhstan, but I don't believe they are launched from there anymore. Instead, and I have received some credible information on this matter, I believe many long-range Ukrainian drones are launched from civilian vessels converted into drone carriers off the Caspian Sea port of Baku, Azerbaijan.
These drones then fly through the Caspian, maneuver through Kazakh territory for as long as possible, and enter Russian territory relatively close to their targets, flying through the steppe and other territories that are much less populated and much less defended (blue arrows).
This makes much more sense from a technical, political and military perspective than assuming these drones are freely flying through thousands of kilometers of very dense air defence networks, including the line of contact. It would be quite wasteful to send every drone swarm through the the densest expected Russian defensive belts every time (orange arrows).
Particularly Samara and Volgograd (1 and 4) have been hit repeatedly in the last months, with Kazan and Cheboksary (2 and 3) joining the "club" more recently.
As for the (geo)political implications of this -- that's another question altogether...
As such, we can see the recent attempts to stir up some kind of drone panic in Russia in a new light: Ukraine is forced to use other countries in order to evade Russian air defense in order to obtain these big PR-boosting hits that are used to manufacture a narrative groundswell around Russia’s war effort somehow “collapsing” because Ukraine is penetrating “deeper and deeper” into “failing Russian defenses”.
In light of this, several Russian figures have begun talking even more brazenly about targeting Europe, in line with recent threats emanating from the highest halls of Russian power which we covered in previous weeks.
Russian political scientist and Kremlin insider Sergei Karaganov was the first, writing an oped that calls for Russia to greatly militarize its nuclear posture against Europe, changing it for strikes against Europe with limited nuclear attacks that he believes would be winnable and would not incite a response from the US.
Excerpt:
At the same time, in order to rein in a Washington that has spiraled out of control, we should incorporate into the doctrine governing the use of nuclear and other types of weapons—in the event that the U.S. and the West continue on their current course toward unleashing a world war—a provision regarding a genuine readiness to take action against American and European assets overseas. Even in friendly countries. They should divest themselves of these assets. To this end, it is necessary to further develop the flexibility of our military capabilities. The U.S. and the West are far more dependent on their foreign assets, bases, and logistical and communication bottlenecks than we are. The adversary must feel its vulnerability and know that we are aware of it.
Medvedev followed suit with his own Victory Day-inspired piece, which specifically focuses on Germany and its resurgence toward a path to war with Russia:
Compellingly, he accuses Germany of never having achieved its full deNazification after WWII:
In fact, the Federal Republic of Germany has seen no real denazification. Archival materials of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, including a reference on the political situation in West Germany from 1952, convincingly show that instead of its implementation, “the Western powers followed the path of justifying Nazi war criminals”.¹ The entire process, carried out with much ado, turned into an empty farce, with the exception of the liquidation of notorious pro-fascist organizations and the purification of public spaces. The Anglo-Saxons, trying to preserve the former leaders of Hitler’s military economy and the major Nazis they needed, campaigned under the slogan ‘hang the small ones – acquit the big ones’.
He aptly states that Germany has now doctrinally embarked on a full-scale strategic defeat of Russia:
Today, the senior political leadership of the Federal Republic of Germany has declared Russia to be ‘the main threat to security and peace’. In Berlin, the authorities have officially proclaimed a course aimed at inflicting a ‘strategic defeat’ on Russia.¹⁹ The most aggressive Russophobes, whose ancestors fought with bestial ferocity on the Eastern Front in World War II, rapturously urge ‘to show the Russians what it is like to lose a war’.²⁰ There is large-scale propaganda brainwashing of public opinion, with theses constantly being injected about the virtual inevitability of a military clash with Russia by 2029. In the first military strategy in Germany’s history, titled ‘Responsibility for Europe’, which was submitted to parliament on April 22, 2026, by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, the Russian Federation is identified as a fundamental threat to the ‘rules-based world order’. It is alleged that Moscow aims to weaken the unity of the Alliance and to undermine the resilience of transatlantic links for the purpose of expanding its influence. In this regard, attempts to establish dialogue should be suppressed, while military pressure on Russia should only be increased. In other words, the strategy of pursuing a large-scale revanche has now been officially adopted.
He mentions the news that Germany, along with the UK and France, are discussing the creation of a kind of ‘nuclear umbrella’ over Europe.
It has been reported that the initiative might receive funding, and proposals on how to divide the roles have emerged: partners are expected to provide warheads, while Germany will provide missile carriers and personnel.
Medvedev takes it seriously enough as to propose immediate international intervention in any nascent German nuclear program, as well as calls for Russia to bolster its own nuclear vigilance vis-a-vis Germany.
He ends the piece with a virtuosic threat of total destruction to both Germany and Europe as a whole, should the ‘predatory eastward gaze’ continue to develop into a more serious revanchist strain:
However, rationality can be shattered by militaristic bipolar mania and Teutonic greed. For the German political establishment that has lost itself in its tin-soldier games is no longer willing to be constrained by limitations of the pragmatic diplomacy of Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt, Helmut Kohl and Gerhard Schröder. Just as it did 85 years ago, Berlin is once again casting a predatory gaze eastward.
The main task for our country is to prevent the repetition of the tragedy of 1941, which means ensuring that our armed forces are kept in a state of permanent combat readiness, especially on the western borders. It is important to understand that, exactly as before June 22, 1941, the Germans are deliberately laying down a network of forward staging areas along the key operational directions. No trust should be placed in Berlin’s good sense, nor any faith that it will forever refrain from risking war. Nobody should delude themselves that the German establishment will regard itself as finally shackled by a mere slip of paper, even if a treaty outlining new principles of European security is signed.
It is no secret that an attempt is being made to impose on us the doctrine of ‘peace through strength’. Our response, then, can only be ‘the security of Russia through the animal fear of Europe’. Talks, good intentions, goodwill, and unilateral steps to build trust must not be our tools to prevent a massacre. The sole guarantee lies in forcing Germany and the ‘united Europe’ backing it to grasp the inescapable certainty of incurring unacceptable losses if they ever set in motion ‘Operation Barbarossa 2.0’.
Our clear signal to the German elites is as follows: should the most dreadful scenario come to pass, the probability is high of at least mutual destruction, and, in reality, the end of European civilization while our own existence continues. Germany’s much-vaunted industry will not only suffer serious damage. It will face total destruction. Its economy will collapse alongside it, and no one will ever restore it. Simply because the remaining sane and skilled professionals will flee – some to Russia, some to the United States, some to China and to other Asian countries. It appears that only by spelling out such grave consequences will the insolent heirs of the Nazis and their German partners be brought to their senses, and millions of lives be saved on both sides of the front line.
A militaristic Germany is of no use to a shrivelled and feeble-minded Europe, which would like to preserve at least some political subjectivity in a new multipolar world. Such a Germany holds no value for us in the future either; it is both dangerous and unpredictable. For Berlin, only two options remain. Option one is war and the ignominious burial of its own statehood, devoid of any prospect of a new ‘Miracle of the House of Brandenburg’. The second is a return to sobriety and subsequent geopolitical recuperation, accompanied by a fundamental reorientation of its foreign policy through a difficult but indispensable dialogue. We can accept both outcomes. The next move is up to Germany. And I hope we shall not hear those all-too-familiar lines: “If I am destined to perish, let the German people perish as well, for they have proved themselves unworthy of me.”³⁷
In further light of the continued escalations and provocations, Putin’s aide Ushakov has apparently announced that the trilateral format of negotiations between Russia, the US, and Ukraine is pointless and now effectively dead until such time that Kiev withdraws its troops from Donbass:
Moscow considers it pointless to continue trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the USA until Kyiv withdraws its troops from Donbass.
➖"Everyone understands, including Ukrainian negotiators, that now Kyiv needs to take just one serious step, after which, firstly, military actions will be suspended, and, secondly, prospects for serious discussions on the prospects for further long-term settlement will open up”, - said Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov, answering a question about the prospects for resuming negotiations.
▪️"Everyone understands this, so honestly speaking, convincing each other is largely a waste of time, because now this step is expected from Kyiv, in particular from Zelensky”, - added Ushakov.
▪️Apparently, he is talking about the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the DPR, which is a key condition of Moscow for a long-term ceasefire.
▪️ Zelensky previously complained that this requirement is also supported by the USA.
Despite all the above, however, Trump is now pushing for more and more US troops to be removed from Germany, which runs counter to German hopes of becoming some kind of military powerhouse.
At the same time, the Europeans continue warming toward some measure of normalization with Russia because of the hopelessness of their Ukrainian quagmire.
Russia’s skyrocketing oil exports continue to dwarf any effect Ukraine’s strikes have been causing:
Bloomberg even reports that Russia has now begun adding to its “rainy day” national wellbeing fund for the first time since last year:
Russia resumed purchases of foreign currency and gold for its National Wellbeing Fund for the first time since June last year, as a surge in oil prices driven by the war in the Middle East boosts export revenue.
In May, the Finance Ministry will buy foreign currency and gold worth 110 billion rubles ($1.5 billion), the ministry in Moscow said Wednesday. The figure includes deferred operations from March and April, it said.
The move highlights the potential windfall for President Vladimir Putin from the conflict ignited by the US and Israel attacking Iran. It gives Moscow a chance to top up state coffers after spending more than half of its rainy-day reserves financing the invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine on the other hand has not fared as well:
As of this writing, large-scale Ukrainian drone strikes have been reported across Russia, particularly in Rostov and elsewhere. Moscow region has allegedly shot down several dozen drones as well, with Zelensky seemingly testing Russia’s red-line response, though the parade itself is still a day away, on Saturday, May 9th.
Moscow is said to have stationed vast amounts of air defenses in a ring around the city—we will have to wait and see if Zelensky dares, or wimps out again as he’s done every year, which will most likely be the case.