He’s become quicker to lecture European leaders. He’s noticeably adopted a more strident and imperious tone with allies this year. Fueled by a renewed confidence in Ukraine’s resilience, having survived another yet diabolical winter and impatient with what he sees as the timidity of his country’s allies, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been throwing caution to the wind when it comes to how he engages with Europe. And it's raising hackles. Last month,German Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly remonstrated with Zelenskyy over his insistence Ukraine be admitted quickly as an EU member, dubbing the Ukrainian leader’s proposed swift timeline for accession as unrealistic. “Zelenskyy had the idea of joining the EU on January 1, 2027. That will not work. Even January 1, 2028, is not realistic,” the German leader said. Merz also conditioned membership on the war having finished, saying membership wouldn’t be possible while the conflict is raging. And he indicated, to Kyiv’s annoyance, that the path to EU membership would likely involve ceding territory to Russia — a break from the general European consensus that allies shouldn’t dictate peace terms to Ukraine. “Relations are tense at the moment and probably at their lowest wartime point between Kyiv and Brussels,” a former senior Ukrainian official told Forecast. He spoke on the condition of anonymity to be able to speak candidly, fearful of incurring Zelenskyy’s ire. At an informal EU summit in Cyprus in April, Zelenskyy was reportedly upbraided by other European leaders over his EU membership expectations and his rejection of incremental membership spread over many years as Ukraine gets set to implement demanded reforms and truly address corruption concerns. According to Zelenskyy, a staged, symbolic membership isn’t sufficient. Ukraine “deserves full membership in the European Union” – and quickly, he told reporters in Kyiv recently. Importunate demands by Zelenskyy have gotten him into trouble before —not only with U.S. President Donald Trump, but with highly sympathetic leaders. In 2022, Trump’s predecessor,Joe Biden, reportedly lost his temper with the Ukrainian leader when Zelenskyy demanded even more assistance after the U.S. leader had just finished telling him he’d approved an additional $1 billion in military aid. “Zelenskyy in particular, not just Zelenskyy, but many other Ukrainians, really believe they're fighting not only for Ukraine but all of Europe and the West. And therefore there’s no need to be grateful to anyone, or to have to say thank you to anyone, or temper their asks,” said a Republican foreign policy expert who’s counseled Kyiv in the past and asked not to be named in this article to be able to talk frankly. “He very much believes that Europe owes Ukraine. It colors his thinking and his rhetoric. But it doesn’t take into account that not all Europeans see it the same way.” That mindset, some believe, is luring Zelenskyy into overplaying his hand and giving misplaced confidence in his abrasive manner in handling his European allies. His rhetoric risks alienating the very partners Ukraine relies on for money — the EU last month gave the go-ahead for a 90 billion euro loan — weapons and diplomatic backing. At the World Economic Forum in Davos in February,Zelenskyy surprised European leaders by rebuking them in harsh terms for not doing enough to help Ukraine — nor, for that matter, enough for their own defense. “Too often in Europe, something is more urgent,” he said. “Europe loves to discuss the future but avoids taking action today.” Coming on the heels of another sharp critique of European leaders from Trump, Zelenskyy’s scolding left many in his audience stunned -- and irritated. “It was quite surprising,” agreed Natia Seskuria, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank. “Zelenskyy is unhappy with the way in which the support has been mobilized by the Europeans.” Maybe so, but having weathered yet another harsh winter, possibly the worst of the war so far, Zelenskyy’s confidence in Ukraine’s ability to persevere in the conflict is growing by leaps and bounds, making him even more determined to get his way with allies and shaping his rhetoric. That confidence is also being boosted by Ukraine’s moves toward becoming a self-sufficient defense hub. It already manufactures almost half of its weaponry needs — that includes drones, ammunition and armored vehicles. And Ukraine is set to export drones, having signed defense export agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, potentially giving it more wherewithal to fund high-speed production and to build out its defense-industrial capacity. Ukraine’s resilience means it doesn’t have to depend on others as much as it did. “With the Americans, Zelenskyy is almost ready to wash his hands of them and pretty close to saying ‘we're done with the Trump administration,’” a former Zelenskyy adviser said. “As long as they sell Patriot missiles to the Germans to give to us, that’s okay. But with the Europeans, there's mounting frustration because we're fighting for Europe, we're doing this for the Europeans and to be part of Europe, and the Europeans still don't have their act together.” “The US-EU rift has pretty much emboldened Zelenskyy to ratchet up his rhetoric,” he added. In Zelenskyy’s reading, Europe needs Ukraine. Meanwhile the drone agreements he’s signed with Gulf states is giving him the idea that he can leverage those exports to get more support from Gulf leaders, and that’s only feeding his abrasiveness with the Europeans, the adviser said. Welcome to POLITICO Forecast. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at forecast@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at jdettmer@politico.eu or on X (formerly known as Twitter) @jamiewrit. |