Xi-Trump summit: can ‘aspirational’ new vision for stability survive strategic rivalry?
True challenge will be finding ways to ‘cooperate constructively within an inherently competitive relationship’, Chinese analyst cautions
SCMP
President Xi Jinping’s new formula for China-US relations is “aspirational”, but the “real test” will be ensuring the two powers can work together despite their deepening rivalry, a leading Chinese political observer has cautioned.
Building this stability was the overriding priority and their competition must remain controlled, Xi emphasised.
Zhao Minghao, deputy director of the Centre for American Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University, cautioned about the structural tensions still shaping the relationship beneath the surface.
“This new concept is aspirational, but it is not where the relationship actually is right now,” Zhao said. “The real test is how the two powers find ways to cooperate constructively within an inherently competitive relationship.”
“Major disagreements – such as US military deployment in the Asia-Pacific – will persist. But Beijing and Washington could pursue practical cooperation in areas like non-sensitive trade and AI safety,” he added.
Zhao predicted more coordination in areas such as artificial intelligence (AI) governance, as well as the board of trade and board of investment initiatives currently under discussion.
US-China relations have remained volatile over the past year, defined by a pendulum swing between escalation and tactical detente.
But tentative de-escalation was reached late last year following a Xi-Trump summit in South Korea, on the margins of an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation event.
The extraordinarily high US duties have since been rolled back drastically, with a 10 per cent reciprocal tariff on Chinese products in place until November and some previous fentanyl-related tariffs lowered to 10 per cent.
However, high tariffs remain for specific sectors, such as a 50 per cent levy on steel and aluminium.
Trump’s state visit to China – the first by a US president in nine years – came as both sides signalled interest in sustaining dialogue, even though official accounts of the Xi-Trump meeting diverged sharply.
The White House highlighted increased Chinese investment in the US, cooperation on preventing fentanyl precursors entering the US, shared concerns over the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, joint opposition to Iranian nuclear weapons, and Beijing’s interest in buying American oil.
Beijing’s readout unveiled the new “constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability” and highlighted military-to-military communication channels.
The US account, however, made no mention of Taiwan.
Zhao described Xi’s remarks on Taiwan as “much more straightforward and clear” than in the past, and said Beijing viewed the meeting as a critical chance to deepen Trump and senior US officials’ understanding of the issue.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China and has never renounced the use of force to reunite it with the mainland. The United States, in common with most countries, does not recognise self-governed Taiwan as an independent state, but is opposed to any attempt to take the island by force and is legally committed to supplying it with weapons.
Trump was publicly silent on Taiwan during his two-day visit to Beijing, though Zhao suggested that more discussions or even a tacit understanding could have emerged behind closed doors.
“[The] key indicators to watch include US arms sales to Taiwan and future political interactions between Washington and Taipei,” he said.
The divergent readouts may highlight different priorities, but neither side has contradicted the other’s account.
Zhao said: “There’s an unspoken understanding here, and it shows that the content from both readouts is credible.”
On Iran, Zhao said more US-China communication was expected but warned that Beijing’s influence remained “limited”, as neither Washington nor Tehran appeared ready to back down and thought they still had cards left to play.