Is China’s new mediation body gaining steam as Western brokers’ influence wanes?
Global envoys and experts are doubling down on mediation as a preferred way to resolve regional conflicts amid stalled US-Iran peace talks and China’s appeal for more countries to join its new mediation body.
According to Cui Jianchun, commissioner of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hong Kong, mediation ensures “to the greatest extent” the autonomy of disputing parties and its “unique charm” is the high respect given to the will of the parties.
Willy Bett, Kenya’s ambassador to China, also urged countries to consider mediation over other resolution mechanisms such as litigation and arbitration. He cited respect for sovereignty and cost-effectiveness as major advantages for African countries.
“When [conflict] happens, we don’t have all the luxury of the money in this world to go into litigation or arbitration because it is costly,” Bett said.
The Middle East conflict has entered its third month with a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran on the brink, fuelling global concerns of a return to combat.
On Monday, US President Donald Trump described the month-long ceasefire reached after direct negotiations facilitated by Pakistan as “unbelievably weak” and on “massive life support”. Both sides have reported exchanges of fire since the truce took effect.
The war has sent oil prices to record highs as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supply chains, has faced unprecedented disruption following conflicting claims of jurisdictional control by Iran and the US.
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The composite mediation framework involving a coalition of facilitating states as seen in the Middle East conflict is becoming the way forward, according to Michael Vatikiotis, senior adviser at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, a Swiss-based organisation focusing on discreet diplomacy and mediation.
In particular, non-Western middle powers, such as Pakistan and Turkey, were increasingly stepping in to fill the mediation vacuum as the influence of traditional Western brokers in Europe and the US waned, Vatikiotis said at a panel discussion during the summit.
Islamabad and Ankara have intensified their diplomatic efforts since the Iran crisis, coordinating with Gulf neighbours to prevent a broader regional escalation.
However, Vatikiotis cautioned that such an approach faced rising challenges, particularly regarding the effective coordination and strategic signalling required between mediating parties.
“The actors are driven by non-negotiable interests,” he said. “And at the same time, the polarisation of global policies and power makes it hard to exert through conservative international influence over the parties to settle.”
Vatikiotis also stressed the need for impartial mediators, a role once filled by the United Nations, which he said was not functioning owing to its deadlocked Security Council.
While smaller groups of states might substitute for the UN in facilitating peace, these mechanisms still required an institutional framework and behind-the-scenes guidance to ensure successful mediation, he added.
Surakiart Sathirathai, a former Thai foreign minister, echoed that view, saying trust deficits between disputing parties remained the most critical issue.
“The mediator can be involved only if the conflicting parties have confidence in the mediators,” Sathirathai said in the panel discussion. “The mediators would have to show their ability to understand the issue of differences, especially sensitive issues.”
Both Vatikiotis and Sathirathai urged countries aspiring to act as mediators to invest in mediation tools, develop a deeper understanding of the process and establish relevant units within their governments.