Current negotiations reportedly center on a short-term proposal to end the war, whereby Tehran would allow the resumption of maritime traffic through the strait and the U.S. would end its blockade of Iranian ports, with other major points of contention to be hashed out in subsequent rounds of talks. But according to The New York Times, Iran is balking at the Trump administration’s demands for commitments up front on its nuclear program.
Thus, the dynamic remains essentially unchanged from before the war: a White House that thinks it can impose maximalist demands on a militarily and economic vulnerable foe, and an Iranian regime that is prepared to endure any amount of pressure in order to avoid capitulation.
Trump, as ever, has no good options. He could order a fresh round of airstrikes against Iran, but that would result in further Iranian retaliation against U.S. allies and partners in the region, and would likely only harden the Islamic Republic’s resolve. As for his vaunted blockade, it is not proving as effective as Trump would like. Some ships are being intercepted, but others are sneaking through. Satellite images from last week showed Iran was still pumping oil and loading it on to tankers. Analysts estimate Iran can hold out for months under current conditions without incurring significant economic costs.
The result is a situation that has all the hallmarks of a frozen conflict: Neither side can impose its will on the other, but nor is there appetite for compromise.
At the same time, the status quo is untenable in the long run. “Iran cannot afford to have its ports blocked indefinitely and neither can the U.S. maintain an indefinite blockade of Iran,” Mehran Kamrava, an expert on Iran at Georgetown University’s campus in Qatar, told Al Jazeera. “For the time being, we might see a short-term frozen conflict, but this cannot continue for several months or years.”
The quicker the two sides come to terms, the sooner the global economy can begin to heal. When that happens, it is unlikely to be under terms that are more favorable than what Trump can secure now. In the meantime, those in the Global South who have nothing to do with the war will continue to bear the heaviest economic burden.
Elliot Waldman is World Politics Review’s editor-in-chief.