'Army Will Collapse'– Draft Evasion, Reserve Exhaustion Deepen Israeli Military Crisis
Israeli media reports deepening manpower shortages, reserve exhaustion, and political turmoil as wars strain the army.
Key Developments
- The Israeli army is reportedly facing a shortage of around 12,000 soldiers, including 6,000 combat troops.
- Israeli media say the crisis has been worsened by prolonged fighting across multiple fronts, including Gaza and Lebanon.
- The Haredi conscription dispute has deepened political tensions inside Netanyahu’s coalition, while the army chief warned that the military could “fall apart”.
The Israeli army is facing a widening manpower crisis amid prolonged military operations across multiple fronts, according to Israeli media reports that point to severe shortages, reserve exhaustion, growing psychological strain, and political turmoil over military service.
The reports come as Israel continues military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, Syria, Yemen and other arenas, placing increasing pressure on regular combat units and reserve forces while exposing deep divisions inside Israeli society over who bears the burden of war.
Draft Evasion
According to Israeli media, approximately 38,000 Israeli youths are currently classified as draft evaders, while another 52,000 are expected to join those ranks in the near future.
Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom reported that between 75 and 80 percent of those expected to evade military service belong to ultra-Orthodox Haredi communities, which have long opposed mandatory conscription.
The issue has become more urgent because the army’s operational needs have expanded sharply since the start of Israel’s prolonged multi-front wars.
Although the Israeli army says Haredi enlistment has increased over the past two years, reaching around 3,000 recruits in 2025, military officials acknowledge that this remains far below what the army says it needs.
The same reports estimate that the army is short by around 12,000 soldiers, including approximately 6,000 combat troops.
This has increased pressure on existing units and made it more difficult to form new military units at a time when Israel is attempting to sustain operations across several fronts.
Multi-Front War Drives Attrition
The manpower shortage is not limited to the Haredi conscription dispute. Israeli media reports say the army is also facing deep exhaustion after more than two and a half years of open military confrontation on several fronts.
Israeli Channel 12 reported that the army presented the political leadership with data described as “worrying,” warning of deep attrition among both regular and reserve forces.
The report linked the crisis to the need to manage fighting across seven fronts simultaneously, as well as to thousands of injuries that have removed soldiers from the manpower pool, especially in combat units.
This pressure has increased the burden on reserve soldiers, who have become central to sustaining Israel’s ongoing operations.
According to Israel Hayom, the army views proposed measures such as extending mandatory service to 36 months and increasing reserve duty to 70 days annually as only partial solutions.
In practice, the newspaper reported, reserve soldiers are already serving between 80 and 100 days a year due to the escalation and continued operations, including on the Lebanese front.
Delayed Legislation
The army’s ability to address the shortage is also being affected by political delays.
According to Israeli reports, proposed changes to the draft law, mandatory service length, and reserve service rules are all linked, but remain stalled because of coalition disputes.
Israeli military officials warn that the delay directly affects operational readiness and the army’s ability to carry out missions.
One major concern for the occupation army is the expected discharge of soldiers who enlisted in July 2024. If mandatory service is not extended, they are expected to be released in January 2027 after only 30 months of service, creating an immediate shortage of roughly 4,000 combat troops and disrupting training cycles inside military units.
The army reportedly views selective extensions or shortened training periods as temporary fixes that do not address the structural crisis. Israeli media say military officials believe the shortage will continue unless recruitment is significantly expanded, especially among Haredi communities.
Political Crisis
The shortage has also become a major political crisis for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition.
Ultra-Orthodox parties have pushed to preserve exemptions for Haredi yeshiva students, while other political forces and military officials argue that the current system is unsustainable during prolonged war.
Last week, Likud introduced a bill to dissolve the Knesset and move toward early elections after the dispute over the Haredi draft exemption intensified. The move came amid reports that Haredi parties had decided to dismantle the coalition after Netanyahu failed to advance the exemption law.
Israeli media later reported that Haredi parties were reconsidering their push to dissolve the Knesset after receiving what they described as positive messages from Netanyahu, suggesting he was still working to secure the votes needed to pass the contested conscription legislation.
Combat Fatigue
The army’s manpower crisis is also tied to the psychological and physical toll of prolonged war.
Israeli media have reported rising psychological trauma among soldiers returning from the Gaza genocide, where the army has carried out a war described by international organizations as involving war crimes and genocide.
Recent Israeli reports have also highlighted growing fatigue among troops, particularly those repeatedly deployed to combat zones. Channel 12 said the army is facing “deep attrition” because of operational demands, battlefield injuries, and the strain of fighting on multiple fronts.
The number of women in combat roles has also increased. According to Channel 12, the number of female combat recruits has risen to 5,200, now making up 21 percent of the combat system.
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Army Chief Warns of Collapse
The warnings have now reached the highest levels of the military.
On May 10, Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee that the reserve system could collapse if mandatory service is not extended.
Zamir said the army had reached the minimum level of manpower and urgently needed more soldiers. He also opposed efforts to shorten women’s military service.
“If everyone serves only according to their own conditions, the army will fall apart,” Zamir said, according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
(Israeli Media, PC)