US diplomat Alan Eyre: Trump wants to declare victory and draw attention away
The claims that the US administration and Iran were on the verge of a one-page framework agreement reopened the balance of power in the region.
In an interview with broadcaster Mario Nawfal, former diplomat and Iranian Expert Alan Eyre, discussed the critical military developments in the last 24 hours, the diplomatic pressure of the Gulf countries on Washington and the disputes in Israel and US domestic politics.
The tension that started with the flight of Israeli warplanes in the skies of Syria and Iraq in the region yesterday, the take-off of refueling tankers in the air and the dimming of GPS signals gave the impression that the Tehran administration reached the brink of war when it closed the western airspace and put its army to the highest level of alert.
However, diplomatic traffic carried out under the mediation of Pakistan Land Forces Commander Asim Munir and Qatari delegation brought the parties closer to a draft of agreement instead of a military operation.
“Trump wants to declare victory and draw attention away”
Former diplomat and Iran Expert Alan Eyre made striking determinations while evaluating US President Donald Trump's foreign policy approach and the background of negotiations with Iran. Eyre used the following statements in the interview:
“President Trump wants to declare victory and immediately draw attention away. His mind is already focused on the Cuban issue. As I mentioned a month ago, Trump only intends to declare his victory, limit his losses and close this issue and move on to another agenda. If a simple one-page agreement is required for this, it will do so.”
Eyre noted that while evaluating the leaked information about the content of the draft, the parties are trying to save time rather than compromise.
Stating that the US wants the nuclear issue to be addressed immediately, while Iran first demands a 30-day trust building process, Eyre stated that Trump can make concessions on this issue. Eyre stated that the parties will meet somewhere, but Trump may eventually come close to Iran's demands.
Referring to the Iran-proposed toll system for the Strait of Hormuz, the expert said that the Gulf countries' approval of this situation points to a formula that the transit control will remain in Iran for a temporary period and the permanent structure will be shared with the Gulf countries.
Emphasizing that this document is far from a final solution, Eyre said, "President Trump's goal is to sign a very short text where uncertainty is not a flaw, but a structural feature."
“For a nuclear agreement, the atomic energy agency must return to the highest level”
Drawing attention to the deficiencies in the control of the nuclear program, Alan Eyre said that the lack of any attriction to the International Atomic Energy Agency in the leaked drafts was a great contrast.
Eyre explained the importance of control mechanisms with these words:
“If a truly nuclear agreement is to be reached between the two sides one day, it should be clearly stated in the text that the International Atomic Energy Agency will re-exist at the highest level in the field. Without the agency's inspectors, installed cameras, unannounced inspections and authority to take land samples, it would be impossible to determine that Iran did not comply with the agreement. Relying only on reports of intelligence organizations such as the CIA or Mossad will provide Iran with more room for action. A verbal agreement to be made without these controls is meaningless.”
Eyre reminded that the commitments between the US and Iran are built on mutual distrust. He noted that the US's promise not to attack again has no counterpart in Tehran, and that Iran's promises not to produce nuclear weapons are not convincing in Washington.
Eyre emphasized that the parties will break these promises when they see it in their own interests in any case, so inspections are critical.
Referring to the difficulty of nuclear negotiations, the expert added that the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan negotiations, which were carried out with a highly competent team during the Obama era, lasted exactly 18 months, and that it did not seem possible for the Trump administration to reach a detailed and protective agreement at this level on a few pages.
“This capacity is essentially in the common mind of thousands of nuclear scientists”
Stating that Iran's motivation to acquire nuclear weapons has increased even more after this military process, Eyre stated that military operations cannot completely destroy nuclear capacity.
Eyre made the following assessment on the subject:
“Iran's desire to acquire nuclear weapons has certainly increased. But they won't rush because they don't need it. Their actual controls in the Strait of Hormuz and their attack capacity against the Gulf energy infrastructure have already proven their deterrence. Moreover, nuclear infrastructure is not just about physical facilities. The three targeted facilities may now be under the rubble, but this capacity is essentially in the common minds of thousands of Iranian nuclear scientists. You cannot destroy the information. Therefore, all we can do is influence their intentions and monitor their abilities.”
Eyre also referred to the talks with former US State Department official Robert Malley in the interview, confirming that Iran's old decision not to produce nuclear weapons may have changed after this war.
Noting that Iran will focus on rapidly rebuilding its defense industry infrastructure, Eyre said that the authorities in Tehran have clearly stated that they will "maintain the state of war readiness even if the conflict stops".
Stating that Iran will continue to act with the logic of "war government", Eyre said that he knows that the USA can re-enact the sanctions it has lifted today tomorrow, and that Israel will continue its efforts to collapse the regime with non-military methods. Therefore, he warned that a one-page document is far from finally ending regional tension.
"As long as Netanyahu is prime minister, he will do his best to undermine any agreements that will be reached"
Evaluating the role of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Israeli domestic politics in this process, Eyre argued that the biggest obstacle to the agreement is the Jerusalem administration.
Eyre shared the following predictions about the possibilities of military and political sabotage:
“As long as Binyamin Netanyahu is prime minister, he will do his best to undermine any agreement to be reached between the USA and Iran. Israel wants the complete disappearance of the current Iranian regime, and for this it sees the time of the Trump administration as a limited window of opportunity. They know that the next president may not be so convenient for Israel, so time is running out. Even if an agreement is reached, Israel's military actions in Lebanon or Syria can blow up the whole process.”
Eyre also evaluated Senator Lindsey Graham's criticism of the agreement. Admitting that Graham's determinations that the agreement would make Iran a dominant power in the region and further strengthen the militia forces in Lebanon and Iraq are correct, Eyre noted that a military alternative would have much more devastating consequences.
Referring to Trump's gathering of national security cabinet, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and General Keith Kellogg in the White House crisis room, Eyre stated that this move was "for show-off" rather than a military decision.
Stating that Trump did not take advice from anyone, the expert said that the cabinet meetings were just a theater.
At the end of the interview, the global military inventory crisis was also mentioned. It was reported that the USA had to postpone the delivery of 400 Tomahawk missiles to Japan for two years due to the consumption of its own stocks during the Iran war, and similarly, military aid to Taiwan and Ukraine was suspended.
Nawfal argued that the USA no longer had the strength to continue the war due to the lack of ammunition and the pressure of the Gulf countries, and therefore the agreement was inevitable. Eyre, on the other hand, confirmed this situation and stated that the agreement under the current conditions for both sides is the "least bad option".