As if the Philippines didn’t already have enough to worry about, add a worsening political crisis to the Southeast Asian nation’s growing list of woes.
Grappling with a slowing economy weighed down by accelerating inflation and higher energy costs, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is locked in a bitter feud with Vice President Sara Duterte that threatens to paralyze parts of the government well before the next elections in 2028.
One senator is in jail on corruption charges, another is in hiding as he seeks to avoid the International Criminal Court, where former President Rodrigo Duterte — Sara’s father — is awaiting trial on charges of crimes against humanity.
Meanwhile, the Senate, tasked with holding the vice president’s upcoming impeachment trial for alleged graft and betrayal of public trust, has been effectively paralyzed. The sudden absence of those two senators this week left the chamber in a precarious 11–11 split between rival factions.
Against that fractious domestic backdrop, Marcos is trying to navigate an increasingly fraught security environment.
Chinese and Philippine vessels continue to square off in the South China Sea, while Beijing’s growing pressure on Taiwan places Manila on the front line of the broader strategic rivalry between China and the US.
A fair question is whether the mounting problems will undermine the Philippines’ ability to push back. So far, the answer appears to be no.
If anything, Marcos has doubled down. His administration has strengthened defense ties with the US, expanded security cooperation with Japan and Australia, and moved ever closer to a growing network of countries wary of China’s ambitions in the region.
But the risks are accumulating. Higher energy costs are here for the foreseeable future, while artificial intelligence presents a longer-term challenge to Filipino jobs and growth.
The Philippines may have managed to separate its domestic turmoil from its foreign policy up to now. The question is, for how long? — Philip J. Heijmans