08
JUNE
2026
As stated in the analysis in Foreign Affairs, the beheading strikes that Israel led, especially at the beginning of the war, against Iran's then head of state, not only missed the goal of bringing about the overthrow of the government in Tehran. Rather, they have helped to force a generational change in the upper ranks of the Iranian state. Now there are no longer people in power whose worldview was shaped in the fight against the Shah regime and in the planning of the overthrow, but a generation that had to defend their country in the 1980s in the war against Iraq and developed considerable creativity because of its overrought situation. In addition, the next generation, which grew up after the war against Iraq, pushes upwards on the following levels of the hierarchies; for them, the focus is no longer on the "revolutionary ideology" but on "national defense", judge the author and the author of the Foreign Affairs contribution, who both teach at the renowned School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. 1] They are no longer religious hardliners, but very "pragmatic, hard-hard nationalists" who have "a clear picture of Iran's abilities and weaknesses": "They do not defend a revolution. They manage a state.”
The new generation at the head of the Iranian state has already succeeded after the Twelve-Day War in June 2025 - then still under the supreme religious leader Ali Khamenei - in preparing the country for a new attack by the USA and Israel. For example, decision-making powers in terms of trade, agriculture and social systems were shifted from state capitals to provincial capitals, i.e. decentralized. 2] Foreign Affairs says that the armed forces have been systematically "converted into a network of operations commandos" that "strongly resembles a guerrilla army" "than a conventional force". Ultimately, the state apparatus - the military included - was transformed "into a coherent decision-making structure" "that could survive the loss of every single leader". This made it possible to survive Israel's brutal decapitation blows without losing one's ability to act. For its future, Iran is no longer counting on achieving the lifting of US sanctions; since Washington can re-enforce them at any time, reintegration into the Western financial system is not relying on, summarizes Iran's contribution to Foreign Affairs's new stance. Rather, one had to take advantage of the actual control of the Strait of Hormuz (german-foreign-policy.com reported [3]).
It is central to the new leadership of the state to get the economy going: a conclusion from previous protests by the Iranian population, which in many cases were triggered by economic hardship. So far, Tehran has succeeded in preventing extensive deficiencies in the supply of the population, despite all the difficulties. At the time of the US-American-Israeli attacks, Iran's leadership was able to not only prevent open protests, such as those in January of this year, but even to rally the population to a certain extent behind them. Although the criticism of the government persists in principle, according to Foreign Affairs. But Iran's population had allowed themselves to be mobilized more and more against the bombings, formed human chains around power plants and gathered on bridges that US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy. At the same time, the government had, for example, de facto relaxed the headscarf obligation and thus granted new freedoms. The war and the new policy of the government would give rise to a "new identity" in the population, a university professor from Iran is quoted as saying. 4] If Tehran succeeds in getting the economy in motion as efficiently as it has organized the survival in the war, then the government could possibly even emerge stronger from the arms movement.
With a view to its strengthened position and the previous material losses of the USA in the war in Iran or its decimated missile stocks (german-foreign-policy.com reported [5]), the government in Tehran has in recent days not only responded to selective US attacks with counterattacks – most recently they were directed against two US air bases in Kuwait and against the US naval base in Bahrain – but also responded to renewed attacks by Israel on Beirut yesterday, which break the agreements between Iran and the United States, with the shelling of targets in northern Israel, this for the first time since the beginning of the ceasefire. The shelling comes at a time when tensions between Israel and the United States have increased significantly. Last week it became known that US President Donald Trump had insulted Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a telephone call because Israel was torpedoing the agreement Trump was seeking with Iran with its attacks on Lebanon.[ 6] With the current attack on northern Israel, which will probably be followed by a new attack by Israel on Iran, Tehran seeks to increase the pressure: If Washington actually wants to bring the war to an end, it must induce its Middle East allies to stop its bombings.
While the war threatens to escalate again, Germany and other European states continue to prepare a naval operation in the Strait of Hormuz, which, however, is less and less clear whether it will take place. As it became known last week, the EU Foreign Service proposed at the end of May to legitimize the operation, in which the German Navy wants to participate with the mine-sweeper Fulda and the Tender Mosel [7], using the EU Aspides operation. This mission has so far served to guide merchant ships through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden to protect them from possible shelling by the Yemeni Houthis. 8] The mandate of the operation in principle also includes the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf and could therefore be used as a basis for the planned new naval operation.[ 9] As the EU Foreign Service writes, Aspides can now demonstrate "EU-wide personal responsibility": in its response "to a situation that affects all Member States". 10] However, the deployment depends firstly on a permanent ceasefire in the Iran war, and secondly on Iran's willingness to cooperate. Both are currently completely uncertain. The Federal Republic and the EU have no influence on this.
[1], [2] Narges Bajoghli, Vali Nasr: Iran's New Grand Strategy. How a Remade Islamic Republic Will Reshape the Middle East. foreignaffairs.com 03.06.2026.
[3] S. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz (II).
Narges Bajoghli, Vali Nasr: Iran's New Grand Strategy. How a Remade Islamic Republic Will Reshape the Middle East. foreignaffairs.com 03.06.2026.
[5] S. The interim balance of the Iran war.
[6] A dispute between close allies. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 03.06.2026.
[7] S. the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
[8] S. to gain war experience.
[9] About the Operation EUNAVFOR ASPIDES. eeas.europa.eu 20.02.2024.
[10] Lily Bayer: EU diplomatic arm proposes naval mission take 'primary role' in clearing Strait of Hormuz mines.