Trump Put His Iran Deal First. Netanyahu Doesn't Have Many Choices Left
Even as the United States and Iran were on the verge of signing an agreement, renewed tensions between Israel and Lebanon erupted on Sunday.
This escalation had even threatened to draw the entire Middle East into another round of fighting. The tail once again tried to wag the dog. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's fairly transparent attempt to delay the signing of the agreement to end the war across the Gulf did not meet any material success.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu's decisions once again seem to be worsening relations with the American administration. U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Israel's strike in Beirut and urged Iran not to respond. Trump sounded focused on his main goal – signing an agreement, which he hopes will lead to a stable cease-fire and let him withdraw most of the American forces from the region.
The escalation du jour began Sunday morning, when Hezbollah launched three explosive drones that penetrated into Israel but caused no casualties. In response, Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that they had ordered the Israel Defense Forces to attack Beirut.
That airstrike, which took place Sunday afternoon, targeted a building in Dahiyeh, a Shi'ite neighborhood in southern Beirut. According to Lebanese media reports, the target was a mid-level Hezbollah command post. No official statement has been released regarding what shape it is in now.
Immediately after the Israeli attack, senior Iranian officials threatened to respond by shooting missiles at Israel. The Israel Defense Forces issued a statement saying it was prepared for this eventuality, and soon afterward announced changes to wartime restrictions.
The new instructions limited mass gatherings, including in central Israel. This led to the last-minute cancellation of two shows in the greater Tel Aviv area that had been expected to attract massive audiences.
Trump, in his statement, said that "This morning's attack on Beirut should not have happened," and forbade Israel from hitting Beirut again. He also urged the Iranians to show restraint, and claimed that he would soon lead the region to "a long and beautiful peace" that would also include Lebanon.
The new reality that has been created in recent weeks has almost become normalized, but there's nothing normal about it. For the second time in a week, Israel put itself on an emergency footing in expectation of an Iranian attack in response to an escalation in Lebanon.
Netanyahu doesn't have a lot of choices. Not only does it appear that the American-Iranian agreement won't satisfy even one of the goals he outlined with great self-confidence when he began the current war in late February (the regime won't fall, Iran's nuclear program won't be destroyed and both its missile program and aid given to regional proxies won't end)
Not only is the fire from Lebanon continuing. But Iran is now, once again, establishing a new equation in which any Israeli attack on Beirut will bring an Iranian attack on Israel.
In practice, we are sliding into a reality of repeated rounds of fighting in which Iranian missiles launched at Israel in between lulls are being depicted as a reasonable situation. Moreover, it's not at all clear that Trump's agreement, assuming it is signed, will bring real quiet in Lebanon. Consequently, there's a possibility of repeated flare-ups with Hezbollah, and perhaps also with Iran, after it is signed.
Just as was true a week ago, Netanyahu had to demonstrate some independence from Trump to avoid losing the trust of the many right-wing voters who still support him despite the October 7 massacre and what looks like a resounding failure in the current campaign. On Sunday, it seems he preferred to attack Beirut even if he knew he would earn a reprimand from Trump.
Nevertheless, the overall picture is wretched. Iran, like Hezbollah, is refusing to bow to the military pressure and the heavy losses it has suffered. And not only has Israel lost some of what had seemed to be guaranteed support from the White House, but Trump is now acting like he has seized control of its foreign and defense policy and transferred it to American hands.
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Thus, it seems Netanyahu will have trouble marketing the idea that his leadership is in a "different league" on the global stage, even to his most diehard voters.
The details of the American-Iranian agreement aren't yet fully clear, but the picture is far from optimistic. The restrictions on Iran's nuclear program appear to be partial, while the regime will now likely be able to recover thanks to the money that will flow to it with the gradual removal of international sanctions.
Moreover, after the failure of the current war, it's hard to imagine any future American president – who is also likely to be less friendly toward Israel – backing an Israeli prime minister in any future war with Iran in the fairly plausible scenario of the regime someday deciding that it does want to make a nuclear bomb.