James discusses the US Iran memorandum of understanding on Radio Islam. Transcript [Anchor] Middle East report with James M. Dorsey on Sabah al-Muslim. James, a very good morning to you, welcome. [James M. Dorsey] Good morning, a pleasure to be with you. [Anchor] So, out of character Iran gave President Trump an unexpected birthday present, a memorandum of understanding, but with a price tag. [James M. Dorsey] Indeed, the memorandum boils down to this. Iran gets what it wanted, while Trump got what he already had. An Iranian pledge not to develop or acquire a nuclear weapon, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian pledge is a copy and paste formulation, borrowed from Article 3 of the 2015 International Agreement that curved Iran’s nuclear programme. Trump walked away from that agreement in 2018. The Strait of Hormuz was open before the war. It was closed because of the war. On the other hand, Iran retained some degree of control of the Strait of Hormuz, significant sanctions and financial relief, and the principle of support for its reconstruction. As always, the devil is in the details. The memorandum is a set of principles. The United States and Iran have widely differing interpretations of what those principles mean and how they will be interpreted. That will be the battle over the next 60 days of negotiations with multiple pitfalls. [Anchor] So, talking about pitfalls, despite the price tag, there’s a lot of things that can go wrong in the next two months. Right on the top of that list is Lebanon. [James M. Dorsey] The question is not whether something can go wrong, but what will go wrong. Lebanon is likely to be the memorandum of understanding’s first litmus test. It could also put Iranian credibility on the line. Iran has insisted that Lebanon is part of the ceasefire, and Trump has largely conceded that. It has also said that it would retaliate against Israel for any major Israeli military move in Lebanon, particularly against Beirut. And it has said that an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon is part of the deal. Both Hezbollah and Israel may want to test those assertions for their own reasons. Potentially, that could spark renewed tit-for-tat attacks that could suck the United States into renewed hostilities. [Anchor] So, this time bomb represented by Lebanon may be ticking because Israel is the Iran war’s biggest loser. [James M. Dorsey] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel, or Netanyahu in an election year, with usually reliable opinion polls suggesting that he has little, if any, chance of being re-elected, is the memorandum of understanding’s biggest loser. Beyond being accountable for the intelligence and other failures that led to Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack against Israel, Netanyahu has little to show for three years of war in Gaza and Lebanon and the wars with Iran. Iran’s nuclear programme has been set back, but not obliterated, to use Trump’s language. The regime remains intact, and Israel retains a diminished... Iran retains a diminished but replenishable ballistic missiles capability. Worse even, Israel’s relations with its main benefactor and supporter, the United States, are strained. One need only to listen to Trump and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance in the last 24 to 48 hours. [Anchor] They have made clear that Israel depends on the United States and should be careful not to jeopardise its relations with the U.S. Now, the U.S. Congress, right, despite widespread bipartisan and Israeli criticism of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding and doubts about Trump’s mastery of the art of the deal, is giving him a second chance to prove his critics wrong. [James M. Dorsey] What emerges from reading between the lines of criticism of the memorandum by Republican and Democratic members of Congress is an informal consensus to give Trump the space to negotiate a final agreement before Congress passes judgement. Trump is obliged to submit any nuclear agreement with Iran to Congress under an 11-year-old law, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, INARA, adopted in 2015. The act blocks the president from implementing any deal for up to two months while Congress considers whether to accept or block it. Members of Congress likely want to avoid being blamed for derailing the memorandum deal if they would insist on delaying its implementation. As a result, Republicans and Democrats, while asserting that the memorandum amounted to appeasement, a foreign policy blunder, an enhancement of Iranian leverage, and the freeing of billions of frozen Iranian dollars with little return, have seemingly opted to avoid a formal review until a final agreement has been negotiated. [Anchor] Coming back to the point, James, about Israel being the biggest loser yet, how is all of this being received in the broader Israeli public? [James M. Dorsey] Israel and the Israeli public is in shock. Trump was their best friend. He was the president who moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s eternal capital, recognised Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights, conquered from Syria during the 1967 Middle East war. Israelis feel betrayed. And what you’re seeing is Netanyahu being blamed for that, for having mishandled and misunderstood Trump, and at the same time of having dragged the country into wars that have produced very little result for Israel. [Anchor] Thank you so much for your time as always, James. Lovely speaking to you. We talk to you next week. [James M. Dorsey] It’s always good to be with you. I look forward to that. The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Thank you for joining The Turbulent World. I’m honoured that you spend time with my work, given that we live in a world of information overload in which time and attention come at a premium. The Turbulent World offers in-depth, independent, evidence-based, and original geopolitical analysis of the Middle East, the Muslim world, and the rise of civilisational leaders that goes beyond what mainstream media offer. 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