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Subject: [Salon] =?utf-8?q?Trump=E2=80=99s_Most_Sinister_Legacy=3A_He?=
 =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=99s_Brought_Out_the_Worst_in_America?=
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[image: Former President Trump Holds Campaign Rally In Pennsylvania To
Support Local Candidates]

A man gestures in anger at the media during a rally to support local
candidates on September 03, 2022 in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania.
(Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Trump=E2=80=99s Most Sinister Legacy: He=E2=80=99s Brought Out the Worst in=
 America
Long after Trump is impeached and removed from office, his hateful,
vengeful drive to bring out the worst from our country will linger and
fester.
Ralph Nader <https://www.commondreams.org/author/ralph-nader>
Jun 27, 2026Common Dreams <https://www.commondreams.org/>

Jimmy Carter=E2=80=99s campaign motto in 1976 was =E2=80=9CWhy Not the Best=
!=E2=80=9D declaring
everywhere he went: =E2=80=9CI want to see us once again have a nation that=
=E2=80=99s as
good and honest and decent and truthful and competent and compassionate and
filled with love as are the American people.=E2=80=9D

Dictator Donald Trump <https://www.commondreams.org/tag/donald-trump> wants
the opposite and is bringing the worst out of America. Here are a few of
his metastasizing initiatives:

1. Championed the worst forms of energy =E2=80=93 coal
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/coal>, oil
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/oil>, and gas =E2=80=93 and depressing so=
lar
energy and wind power with restrictive policies, and even paying ongoing
wind project companies nearly a billion dollars in your tax dollars to stop
construction! Also, he is using many billions of your tax dollars to
subsidize the failing nuclear power
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/nuclear-power> companies to build more
expensive, unneeded, uninsurable, un-investable (by Wall Street
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/wall-street>), unsafe, boondoggles while
his GOP <https://www.commondreams.org/tag/gop> takes large campaign
contributions from fossil fuel and nuclear power corporate welfarists.

2. Encouraged the worst corruption
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/corruption> of the Pentagon=E2=80=94more =
waste,
contractor fraud and abuse=E2=80=94led by a foul-mouthed buffoon pushing il=
legal
wars, mass deaths, and racism <https://www.commondreams.org/tag/racism>.
Hegseth is despised by many high-ranking officers for his misogynistic
firings and incompetence.

3. Brought out the worst from his toady Attorney Generals at the Justice
Department=E2=80=94firing prosecutors and other lawyers for perceived venge=
ance.
Trump gives orders directly to DOJ officials, thus ending any traditional
arms-length independence at that Department. Trump has gotten his Attorney
Generals to dismiss over 100 corporate crime cases, to decline enforcement
of laws holding polluters and corporate criminals accountable, and made DOJ
his personal law firm.

4. Encouraged the worst from the Environmental Protection Agency
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/environmental-protection-agency>, whose
puppet director believes that more methane
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/methane>, other greenhouse gases, motor
vehicle gases, auto factories, and coal pollution
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/pollution> are permissible for America=E2=
=80=99s
children <https://www.commondreams.org/tag/children> to breathe. EPA
Director Lee Zeldin should rename his shattered agency and fired scientists
=E2=80=9CThe Trump Anti-Environment Protection Agency.=E2=80=9D

5. Suppressed or cancelled programs of scientific truth-seeking while
publicizing pseudo-scientists who go far beyond healthy skepticism to
peddle quackery about climate violence, pandemics, and vaccines
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/vaccines> that lead to distrust and
disarray among vulnerable people wanting to protect their families. For
Trump, climate catastrophes are =E2=80=9Ca hoax, a scam=E2=80=9D and he is =
giving
corporations the green light on dangerous pesticides
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/pesticides> (especially deadly to little
children) which increase the risk of cancer and other lethal diseases. When
you lie every talking hour of the day, as Trump does, the truth and facts
have no relevance.

6. Trump is self-servingly wrecking the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).
Further cutting its tight budget <https://www.commondreams.org/tag/budget> =
via
the GOP in Congress, the IRS has a grossly inadequate number of experts
skilled in detecting complex corporate tax schemes and evasions totaling
hundreds of billions of dollars in TAX ESCAPES per year.

One of those Escapes is the coerced deal Trump imposed on the IRS to give
him and his avaricious family immunity from past and contemporary audits
and enforcement, worth a gold mine to the bragging tax dodger-in-chief. He
has wrecked public trust in his politicized IRS, on which voluntary
compliance by American taxpayers is based.

7. Trump has grievously brought out the worst from the Congress, finishing
off what is left of the separation of powers, turning Speaker Mike Johnson
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/mike-johnson> into a panting lap dog and
Senate Majority Leader John Thune into a more staid but ready heel-clicker.
Trump has opposed any public hearings and investigative oversight of the
Executive Branch, including an inquiry into his illegal firing of 17
inspector generals required to root out waste and fraud from their
departments.

In his first term, Trump defied over 125 Congressional subpoenas =E2=80=93 =
an
impeachable offense if ever there was one.

8. Trump brings out the worst from major corporations. His
dictates=E2=80=94allowing corporations to cheat, steal, harm, pollute, and =
violate
with impunity almost any federal laws, most of which Trump has shelved by
taking the federal cops off the corporate crime beat=E2=80=94could fill a l=
arge
book.. This is especially the case in lifting controls over poisonous
corporate pollution and letting large companies decide for themselves how
little or no tax they pay to Uncle Sam from their massive profits. Why not?
He preaches what he practices as he amasses an ever-greater personal wealth
using the White House <https://www.commondreams.org/tag/white-house> as a
profiteering office for profiteering.

9. Worsening the architecture of the White House and nearby Washington
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/washington>, D.C., are major
preoccupations of this egomaniacal dilettante. He illegally tore down the
East Wing and is building, without Congressional permission, a huge, garish
ballroom to go along with other planned desecrations, such as the
250-foot-high arch. As architect critic Philip Kennicott of the *Washington
Post <https://www.commondreams.org/tag/washington-post>* writes, he has
turned =E2=80=9Cthe reflecting pool from a serene oasis to a police zone,=
=E2=80=9D bungling
millions of dollars.

Day after day, thousands of National Guard soldiers are wondering what
they=E2=80=99re doing aimlessly patrolling downtown Washington to fill the =
whims of
Trump=E2=80=99s false claims about their ending street crimes in the nation=
al
capital.

10. The Trumpeteer has brought out the worst in the mainstream media,
giving preferential access to uncritical reporters, and restricting or
prohibiting access to reporters who are steadfast and straightforward.
Trump maliciously sues to extort money from networks like CBS and ABC,
while approving mergers and acquisitions of media properties by Trump
funders and flatterers expected to censor in his favor.

11. From the people, he has celebrated vice over virtue, greed over
charity, obscenity over decency, violence over peace, police and ICE
brutality over more effective standards of prudence and restraint by law
enforcers. As an open, brazen liar, a delusionary braggart, and peddler of
empty promises, Trump has troubled parents who see their youngsters mimic
his abuses and foul talk.

12. He pardons hundreds of convicted violent criminals and other fraudsters
and says he will pardon more crooks, even urging them to continue their
lawless ways because he will pardon them if they are caught. As a convicted
felon himself, he knows a criminal when he sees one. .

13. Trump has violated seven of the Ten Commandments and is almost never
seen in Church, yet Trump manages to bring out the most extreme hypocrites
from the leadership of organized religion
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/religion>, who support his violent,
aggressive wars and alliances of mass murder, larger military budgets, and
his waiver of prosecuting corporate crooks, because they like his
anti-abortion stance.

Twice, he has assailed Pope Leo, who is insisting that Christianity be a
religion of love, compassion, and peace.

14. His most fervent mission is to provoke biases and bigotry against
recent immigrants and asylum seekers among millions of his voters who
believed his lies about these desperate people, fleeing with their children
from oppressive regimes and oligarchies long supported by the U.S.
government in Central and South America.

Using words like =E2=80=9Cinvasion,=E2=80=9D =E2=80=9Crapists,=E2=80=9D =E2=
=80=9Ccriminals,=E2=80=9D he succeeded in
defaming the overwhelming law-abiding and hard-working people harvesting
our crops, caring for our little children and elderly, and cleaning up
after us every day to feed their families.

Largely unrebutted by a cowardly Democratic Party
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/democratic-party>, Trump=E2=80=99s fabric=
ations
threw his MAGA supporters into a frenzy, which he fed daily, obscuring his
own employment of hundreds of low-paid, undocumented construction workers
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/workers> in New York and his servants in
New Jersey.

Every society has its cruel, greedy, and bigoted inhabitants. Trump grossly
exaggerated troubled conditions in the US to embolden these miscreants,
then heralded them, gave them access to the White House and Mar-a-Lago,
helped them get media coverage, and sell their books. Trump then
intimidated or prosecuted those who exercised their freedom of speech
rights to criticize or counter Trump=E2=80=99s depraved and baleful lackeys=
.

He has regaled Silicon Valley=E2=80=99s corporate digital child molesters, =
taken
their campaign donations, flattery, and investments at the expense of
curtailing the daily harm they are directly marketing to tens of millions
of vulnerable children.

Presidents of our country, with their =E2=80=9Cbully pulpit=E2=80=9D and va=
st media
coverage, set examples in many ways for families. They can bring out the
kindness and idealism of many Americans, as did President John F. Kennedy
in 1961 when he and Congress launched the Peace Corps. Or they can exhibit
to the world the cruelty and viciousness of the Trump/Musk illegal rampage
that started with closing the U.S. Agency for International Development (
USAID <https://www.commondreams.org/tag/usaid>). With the rupture of the
flow of critical medicines, food, medical supplies, and clean water
<https://www.commondreams.org/tag/water> to those in need, the Trump/Musk
Axis sealed the fate abroad of millions, mostly infants, children, and
mothers, over the next several years, according to expert estimates. (See U=
SAID
shutdown has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths
<https://us.list-manage.com/9sVNHew6FNa?e=3D8e411e9705&c2id=3D8e3459eb78ddc=
0e9b4695a09351ef532>
.)

Long after Trump is impeached and removed from office, his hateful,
vengeful drive to bring out the worst from our country will linger and
fester. Until, that is, the forces behind expanded goodwill and fair play,
peace and justice manifest themselves at the polls, the civic and political
arenas, and the civic education and experiences within our repurposed
elementary and secondary schools.

History repeatedly teaches us that principles of peace, justice, and
opportunity always enjoy overwhelming public support when polled compared
to ideologies of corruption, violence, and greed.

So, it is entirely in our hands to bring these preferences into the daily
reality of the people, their children and grandchildren, and future
generations who deserve better.

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail-mb-2 gmail-lead_post_lead_media" id=3D=
"gmail-sPost_Layout_Default_0_0_9_0_0_19_0_0" style=3D"color:rgb(51,51,51);=
font-family:&quot;Open Sans&quot;,sans-serif;font-size:16px"><div class=3D"=
gmail-posts-custom gmail-posts-custom-section gmail-section-holder gmail-cl=
earfix" style=3D"zoom:1;margin-bottom:0px"><div class=3D"gmail-posts-wrappe=
r gmail-clearfix" style=3D"zoom:1;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;font-siz=
e:0px;line-height:0"><div class=3D"gmail-widget gmail-post-partial gmail-ta=
g-donald-trump gmail-post-section--opinion" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;=
margin-bottom:10px;width:1252px;display:inline-block;vertical-align:top;ove=
rflow:visible"><div class=3D"gmail-row gmail-px10" style=3D"overflow:hidden=
"><div class=3D"gmail-rm-col-center gmail-col gmail-sm-mb-1" style=3D"font-=
size:1.6rem;line-height:1;margin-bottom:40px;float:left;box-sizing:border-b=
ox;padding-left:10px;padding-right:10px;width:1272px"><div class=3D"gmail-w=
idget__head" style=3D"margin-bottom:12px"><img role=3D"img" alt=3D"Former P=
resident Trump Holds Campaign Rally In Pennsylvania To Support Local Candid=
ates" aria-label=3D"Former President Trump Holds Campaign Rally In Pennsylv=
ania To Support Local Candidates" src=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/media=
-library/former-president-trump-holds-campaign-rally-in-pennsylvania-to-sup=
port-local-candidates.jpg?id=3D56529001&amp;width=3D1200&amp;height=3D400&a=
mp;quality=3D70&amp;coordinates=3D0%2C937%2C0%2C1301" class=3D"gmail-rm-laz=
yloadable-image gmail-rm-hero-media" width=3D"1200" height=3D"400" style=3D=
"border: 0px; vertical-align: middle; max-width: 1293px; width: 1252px; mar=
gin-top: 10px; object-fit: cover; height: unset;"></div><div class=3D"gmail=
-widget__body gmail-clearfix gmail-sm-mt-1" style=3D"zoom:1;margin-bottom:1=
0px"><div class=3D"gmail-photo-caption" style=3D"display:inline;margin-righ=
t:8px;font-size:12px;line-height:16px;color:rgb(107,107,107)"><p style=3D"d=
isplay:inherit">A man gestures in anger at the media during a rally to supp=
ort local candidates on September 03, 2022 in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania.=
=C2=A0</p></div><div class=3D"gmail-photo-credit" style=3D"display:inline;f=
ont-size:12px;line-height:16px;color:rgb(107,107,107)">(Photo by Spencer Pl=
att/Getty Images)</div><h1 class=3D"gmail-widget__headline gmail-h1" style=
=3D"margin:20px auto 0px;padding:0px;font-size:50px;font-weight:500;font-fa=
mily:Oswald,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);width:904px;max-width:904px;line-he=
ight:60px"><span class=3D"gmail-widget__headline-text gmail-custom-post-hea=
dline" style=3D"font-family:inherit;color:inherit;word-break:break-word">Tr=
ump=E2=80=99s Most Sinister Legacy: He=E2=80=99s Brought Out the Worst in A=
merica</span></h1><div class=3D"gmail-widget__subheadline" style=3D"margin:=
0px auto;font-family:Lora,sans-serif;padding-top:20px;font-weight:600;font-=
size:25px;line-height:35px;color:rgb(34,34,34);max-width:904px"><h2 class=
=3D"gmail-widget__subheadline-text gmail-h2" style=3D"margin:0px;padding:0p=
x;font-size:1em;display:inline">Long after Trump is impeached and removed f=
rom office, his hateful, vengeful drive to bring out the worst from our cou=
ntry will linger and fester.</h2></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>=
</div><div class=3D"gmail-wrap" id=3D"gmail-sPost_Layout_Default_0_0_9_0_0_=
19_0_1" style=3D"width:1226.95px;max-width:1252px;margin:0px auto;color:rgb=
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hor__name gmail-rm-stats-tracked" href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/auth=
or/ralph-nader" style=3D"color:rgb(34,34,34);text-decoration:none;font-size=
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ase;width:fit-content;border:0px;margin:0px auto;padding-top:8px;padding-bo=
ttom:8px">Ralph Nader</a><div class=3D"gmail-social-date" style=3D"color:rg=
b(34,34,34);font-size:12px;width:165px;border:0px;margin:0px;padding-top:0p=
x;padding-bottom:8px;line-height:12px;text-transform:capitalize;font-family=
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b(107,107,107)">Jun 27, 2026</span><a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/=
" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,93,199);text-decora=
tion:none;margin-left:5px;width:160px;display:block;margin-top:5px">Common =
Dreams</a></div></div></div></div><div class=3D"gmail-widget__shares gmail-=
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rgin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;font-size:0px;line-height:0"><div class=3D"g=
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pinion" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-bottom:10px;width:680px;displ=
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=3D"overflow:hidden"><div class=3D"gmail-rm-col-center gmail-col gmail-sm-m=
b-1" style=3D"font-size:1.6rem;line-height:1;margin-bottom:40px;float:left;=
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v class=3D"gmail-widget__head" style=3D"margin-bottom:10px"></div><div clas=
s=3D"gmail-widget__body gmail-clearfix gmail-sm-mt-1" style=3D"zoom:1;margi=
n-bottom:10px"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class=3D"gmai=
l-mb-2 gmail-lead_post_post_body gmail-lead_post_body" id=3D"gmail-sPost_La=
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<div class=3D"gmail-posts-custom gmail-posts-custom-section gmail-section-h=
older gmail-clearfix" style=3D"zoom:1;margin-bottom:0px"><div class=3D"gmai=
l-posts-wrapper gmail-clearfix" style=3D"zoom:1;margin-left:0px;margin-righ=
t:0px;font-size:0px;line-height:0"><div class=3D"gmail-widget gmail-post-pa=
rtial gmail-tag-donald-trump gmail-post-section--opinion" style=3D"box-sizi=
ng:border-box;margin-bottom:10px;width:680px;display:inline-block;overflow:=
visible"><div class=3D"gmail-row gmail-px10" style=3D"overflow:hidden"><div=
 class=3D"gmail-rm-col-center gmail-col gmail-sm-mb-1" style=3D"font-size:1=
.6rem;line-height:1;margin-bottom:40px;float:left;box-sizing:border-box;pad=
ding-left:10px;padding-right:10px;width:700px"><div class=3D"gmail-widget__=
head" style=3D"margin-bottom:10px"></div><div class=3D"gmail-widget__body g=
mail-clearfix gmail-sm-mt-1" style=3D"zoom:1;margin-bottom:10px"><div class=
=3D"gmail-body gmail-js-expandable gmail-clearfix gmail-js-listicle-body gm=
ail-css-listicle-body-2677120557" style=3D"zoom:1;margin-top:0px;max-width:=
680px"><div class=3D"gmail-body-description" style=3D"font-size:20px;line-h=
eight:30px;color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:Lora,sans-serif"><div class=3D"g=
mail-trinity-player-iframe-wrapper" style=3D"min-height:80px;width:680px;pa=
dding:0px;clear:both"></div><p>Jimmy Carter=E2=80=99s campaign motto in 197=
6 was =E2=80=9CWhy Not the Best!=E2=80=9D declaring everywhere he went: =E2=
=80=9CI want to see us once again have a nation that=E2=80=99s as good and =
honest and decent and truthful and competent and compassionate and filled w=
ith love as are the American people.=E2=80=9D</p><p>Dictator=C2=A0<a href=
=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/donald-trump" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-=
tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">Donald Trump</a>=C2=A0wants the opposit=
e and is bringing the worst out of America. Here are a few of his metastasi=
zing initiatives:</p><p>1. Championed the worst forms of energy =E2=80=93=
=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/coal" class=3D"gmail-rm-s=
tats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">coal</a>,=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://=
www.commondreams.org/tag/oil" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"col=
or:rgb(0,0,0)">oil</a>, and gas =E2=80=93 and depressing solar energy and w=
ind power with restrictive policies, and even paying ongoing wind project c=
ompanies nearly a billion dollars in your tax dollars to stop construction!=
 Also, he is using many billions of your tax dollars to subsidize the faili=
ng=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/nuclear-power" class=3D=
"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">nuclear power</a>=C2=A0=
companies to build more expensive, unneeded, uninsurable, un-investable (by=
=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/wall-street" class=3D"gma=
il-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">Wall Street</a>), unsafe, b=
oondoggles while his=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/gop" =
class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">GOP</a>=C2=A0ta=
kes large campaign contributions from fossil fuel and nuclear power corpora=
te welfarists.</p><p>2. Encouraged the worst=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.co=
mmondreams.org/tag/corruption" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"co=
lor:rgb(0,0,0)">corruption</a>=C2=A0of the Pentagon=E2=80=94more waste, con=
tractor fraud and abuse=E2=80=94led by a foul-mouthed buffoon pushing illeg=
al wars, mass deaths, and=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/=
racism" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">racism<=
/a>. Hegseth is despised by many high-ranking officers for his misogynistic=
 firings and incompetence.</p><p>3. Brought out the worst from his toady At=
torney Generals at the Justice Department=E2=80=94firing prosecutors and ot=
her lawyers for perceived vengeance. Trump gives orders directly to DOJ off=
icials, thus ending any traditional arms-length independence at that Depart=
ment. Trump has gotten his Attorney Generals to dismiss over 100 corporate =
crime cases, to decline enforcement of laws holding polluters and corporate=
 criminals accountable, and made DOJ his personal law firm.</p><p>4. Encour=
aged the worst from the=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/en=
vironmental-protection-agency" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"co=
lor:rgb(0,0,0)">Environmental Protection Agency</a>, whose puppet director =
believes that more=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/methane=
" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">methane</a>, =
other greenhouse gases, motor vehicle gases, auto factories, and coal=C2=A0=
<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/pollution" class=3D"gmail-rm-st=
ats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">pollution</a>=C2=A0are permissible =
for America=E2=80=99s=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/chil=
dren" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">children<=
/a>=C2=A0to breathe. EPA Director Lee Zeldin should rename his shattered ag=
ency and fired scientists =E2=80=9CThe Trump Anti-Environment Protection Ag=
ency.=E2=80=9D</p><p>5. Suppressed or cancelled programs of scientific trut=
h-seeking while publicizing pseudo-scientists who go far beyond healthy ske=
pticism to peddle quackery about climate violence, pandemics, and=C2=A0<a h=
ref=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/vaccines" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-t=
racked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">vaccines</a>=C2=A0that lead to distrust =
and disarray among vulnerable people wanting to protect their families. For=
 Trump, climate catastrophes are =E2=80=9Ca hoax, a scam=E2=80=9D and he is=
 giving corporations the green light on dangerous=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://w=
ww.commondreams.org/tag/pesticides" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=
=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">pesticides</a>=C2=A0(especially deadly to little chil=
dren) which increase the risk of cancer and other lethal diseases. When you=
 lie every talking hour of the day, as Trump does, the truth and facts have=
 no relevance.</p><p>6. Trump is self-servingly wrecking the Internal Reven=
ue Service (IRS). Further cutting its tight=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.com=
mondreams.org/tag/budget" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"color:r=
gb(0,0,0)">budget</a>=C2=A0via the GOP in Congress, the IRS has a grossly i=
nadequate number of experts skilled in detecting complex corporate tax sche=
mes and evasions totaling hundreds of billions of dollars in TAX ESCAPES pe=
r year.</p><p>One of those Escapes is the coerced deal Trump imposed on the=
 IRS to give him and his avaricious family immunity from past and contempor=
ary audits and enforcement, worth a gold mine to the bragging tax dodger-in=
-chief. He has wrecked public trust in his politicized IRS, on which volunt=
ary compliance by American taxpayers is based.</p><p>7. Trump has grievousl=
y brought out the worst from the Congress, finishing off what is left of th=
e separation of powers, turning Speaker=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.commond=
reams.org/tag/mike-johnson" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"color=
:rgb(0,0,0)">Mike Johnson</a>=C2=A0into a panting lap dog and Senate Majori=
ty Leader John Thune into a more staid but ready heel-clicker. Trump has op=
posed any public hearings and investigative oversight of the Executive Bran=
ch, including an inquiry into his illegal firing of 17 inspector generals r=
equired to root out waste and fraud from their departments.</p><p>In his fi=
rst term, Trump defied over 125 Congressional subpoenas =E2=80=93 an impeac=
hable offense if ever there was one.</p><p>8. Trump brings out the worst fr=
om major corporations. His dictates=E2=80=94allowing corporations to cheat,=
 steal, harm, pollute, and violate with impunity almost any federal laws, m=
ost of which Trump has shelved by taking the federal cops off the corporate=
 crime beat=E2=80=94could fill a large book.. This is especially the case i=
n lifting controls over poisonous corporate pollution and letting large com=
panies decide for themselves how little or no tax they pay to Uncle Sam fro=
m their massive profits. Why not? He preaches what he practices as he amass=
es an ever-greater personal wealth using the=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.co=
mmondreams.org/tag/white-house" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"c=
olor:rgb(0,0,0)">White House</a>=C2=A0as a profiteering office for profitee=
ring.</p><p>9. Worsening the architecture of the White House and nearby=C2=
=A0<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/washington" class=3D"gmail-r=
m-stats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">Washington</a>, D.C., are major=
 preoccupations of this egomaniacal dilettante. He illegally tore down the =
East Wing and is building, without Congressional permission, a huge, garish=
 ballroom to go along with other planned desecrations, such as the 250-foot=
-high arch. As architect critic Philip Kennicott of the=C2=A0<em><a href=3D=
"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/washington-post" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-=
tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">Washington Post</a></em><em>=C2=A0</em>=
writes, he has turned =E2=80=9Cthe reflecting pool from a serene oasis to a=
 police zone,=E2=80=9D bungling millions of dollars.</p><p>Day after day, t=
housands of National Guard soldiers are wondering what they=E2=80=99re doin=
g aimlessly patrolling downtown Washington to fill the whims of Trump=E2=80=
=99s false claims about their ending street crimes in the national capital.=
</p><p>10. The Trumpeteer has brought out the worst in the mainstream media=
, giving preferential access to uncritical reporters, and restricting or pr=
ohibiting access to reporters who are steadfast and straightforward. Trump =
maliciously sues to extort money from networks like CBS and ABC, while appr=
oving mergers and acquisitions of media properties by Trump funders and fla=
tterers expected to censor in his favor.</p><p>11. From the people, he has =
celebrated vice over virtue, greed over charity, obscenity over decency, vi=
olence over peace, police and ICE brutality over more effective standards o=
f prudence and restraint by law enforcers. As an open, brazen liar, a delus=
ionary braggart, and peddler of empty promises, Trump has troubled parents =
who see their youngsters mimic his abuses and foul talk.</p><p>12. He pardo=
ns hundreds of convicted violent criminals and other fraudsters and says he=
 will pardon more crooks, even urging them to continue their lawless ways b=
ecause he will pardon them if they are caught. As a convicted felon himself=
, he knows a criminal when he sees one. .</p><p>13. Trump has violated seve=
n of the Ten Commandments and is almost never seen in Church, yet Trump man=
ages to bring out the most extreme hypocrites from the leadership of organi=
zed=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/religion" class=3D"gma=
il-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">religion</a>, who support h=
is violent, aggressive wars and alliances of mass murder, larger military b=
udgets, and his waiver of prosecuting corporate crooks, because they like h=
is anti-abortion stance.</p><p>Twice, he has assailed Pope Leo, who is insi=
sting that Christianity be a religion of love, compassion, and peace.</p><p=
>14. His most fervent mission is to provoke biases and bigotry against rece=
nt immigrants and asylum seekers among millions of his voters who believed =
his lies about these desperate people, fleeing with their children from opp=
ressive regimes and oligarchies long supported by the U.S. government in Ce=
ntral and South America.</p><p>Using words like =E2=80=9Cinvasion,=E2=80=9D=
 =E2=80=9Crapists,=E2=80=9D =E2=80=9Ccriminals,=E2=80=9D he succeeded in de=
faming the overwhelming law-abiding and hard-working people harvesting our =
crops, caring for our little children and elderly, and cleaning up after us=
 every day to feed their families.</p><p>Largely unrebutted by a cowardly=
=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/democratic-party" class=
=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">Democratic Party</a>=
, Trump=E2=80=99s fabrications threw his MAGA supporters into a frenzy, whi=
ch he fed daily, obscuring his own employment of hundreds of low-paid, undo=
cumented construction=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/work=
ers" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">workers</a=
>=C2=A0in New York and his servants in New Jersey.</p><p>Every society has =
its cruel, greedy, and bigoted inhabitants. Trump grossly exaggerated troub=
led conditions in the US to embolden these miscreants, then heralded them, =
gave them access to the White House and Mar-a-Lago, helped them get media c=
overage, and sell their books. Trump then intimidated or prosecuted those w=
ho exercised their freedom of speech rights to criticize or counter Trump=
=E2=80=99s depraved and baleful lackeys.</p><p>He has regaled Silicon Valle=
y=E2=80=99s corporate digital child molesters, taken their campaign donatio=
ns, flattery, and investments at the expense of curtailing the daily harm t=
hey are directly marketing to tens of millions of vulnerable children.</p><=
p>Presidents of our country, with their =E2=80=9Cbully pulpit=E2=80=9D and =
vast media coverage, set examples in many ways for families. They can bring=
 out the kindness and idealism of many Americans, as did President John F. =
Kennedy in 1961 when he and Congress launched the Peace Corps. Or they can =
exhibit to the world the cruelty and viciousness of the Trump/Musk illegal =
rampage that started with closing the U.S. Agency for International Develop=
ment (<a href=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/usaid" class=3D"gmail-rm-=
stats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">USAID</a>). With the rupture of t=
he flow of critical medicines, food, medical supplies, and clean=C2=A0<a hr=
ef=3D"https://www.commondreams.org/tag/water" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-track=
ed" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">water</a>=C2=A0to those in need, the Trump/M=
usk Axis sealed the fate abroad of millions, mostly infants, children, and =
mothers, over the next several years, according to expert estimates. (See=
=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://us.list-manage.com/9sVNHew6FNa?e=3D8e411e9705&amp;=
c2id=3D8e3459eb78ddc0e9b4695a09351ef532" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" target=
=3D"_blank" class=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)">USA=
ID shutdown has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths</a>.)</p><p>Long aft=
er Trump is impeached and removed from office, his hateful, vengeful drive =
to bring out the worst from our country will linger and fester. Until, that=
 is, the forces behind expanded goodwill and fair play, peace and justice m=
anifest themselves at the polls, the civic and political arenas, and the ci=
vic education and experiences within our repurposed elementary and secondar=
y schools.</p><p>History repeatedly teaches us that principles of peace, ju=
stice, and opportunity always enjoy overwhelming public support when polled=
 compared to ideologies of corruption, violence, and greed.</p><p>So, it is=
 entirely in our hands to bring these preferences into the daily reality of=
 the people, their children and grandchildren, and future generations who d=
eserve better.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></d=
iv></div>

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Subject: [Salon] Trump is replacing capitalism with cronyism
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https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/06/trump-is-replacing-capitalism-with-cro=
nyism/

Pearls and Irritations <https://johnmenadue.com/>
[image: Trump is replacing capitalism with cronyism]
Joseph E. Stiglitz <https://johnmenadue.com/authors/joseph-e-stiglitz/>Trum=
p
is replacing capitalism with cronyism

June 26, 2026



*Donald Trump=E2=80=99s use of state power to extract concessions from AI a=
nd
technology firms is not industrial policy, but a corrupt form of crony
capitalism that threatens US democracy, prosperity and the rule of law.*

President Donald Trump claims that electing =E2=80=9Csocialist=E2=80=9D Dem=
ocrats would put
the United States on the path to becoming Venezuela or Cuba. But Trump=E2=
=80=99s
own actions, as is often the case, fly in the face of what he says and what
his Republican Party supposedly stands for. Far from continuing to champion
capitalism and free enterprise, Trump=E2=80=99s GOP no longer supports eith=
er.

What has distinguished American-style capitalism is strict private
ownership of firms. Under Chinese- and Russian-style capitalism, the
government owns seemingly ordinary firms through corrupt arrangements that
ultimately serve political leaders and their cronies =E2=80=93 a system bea=
ring
little relation to the kind of economy that one studies in an introductory
economics course. But now, the US is on the same path as Russia and China.

I have long argued that there is more scope for government intervention in
the US economy through industrial policy, and that regulation is needed in
many areas to align private interests and the public good. But I have
always argued that such interventions must be institutionalised, following
impersonal, transparent processes that avoid even the appearance of
political favouritism.

The Republican Party, by contrast, has tacitly endorsed Trump=E2=80=99s thu=
ggish
capitalism, a model nothing like the rules-based market economy that
conservatives used to endorse. It is thus no surprise =E2=80=93 but very wo=
rrying =E2=80=93
that the Trump administration is reportedly in discussions
<https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/us-officials-eye-government-st=
akes-ai-companies-notus-reports-2026-06-05/>
that
could lead Anthropic, OpenAI, and other AI firms =E2=80=9Cvoluntarily=E2=80=
=9D to cede
=E2=80=9Cshares to the government,=E2=80=9D just as Putin has =E2=80=9Cvolu=
ntarily=E2=80=9D received
support from Russia=E2=80=99s oligarchs.

>From Russia and China to Saudi Arabia (where wealthy elites were detained
in the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton for three months in 2017-18, until they handed
over sufficient shares in their holdings), businesspeople have learned not
to challenge the government. Alibaba founder Jack Ma and former Russian
oligarchs like Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Boris Berezovsky can attest to that=
.

Trump may not go to the same extremes as Putin or Xi, but his basic
approach is the same. His administration=E2=80=99s treatment of Anthropic i=
s
reminiscent of how the Chinese government dealt with Ma when he dared to
criticise regulators. After suddenly slapping an export ban on Anthropic=E2=
=80=99s
most advanced tools earlier this month, the administration is holding new
=E2=80=9Cdiscussions,=E2=80=9D presumably to extract additional concessions=
 from the
country=E2=80=99s fastest-growing AI lab.

The administration already took decisive steps in this direction last
August, when it demanded that Nvidia and AMD give the US government a 15
per cent cut of their sales to China in return for lifting export bans. In
this case, Trump openly traded national security (the purported
justification for the bans) for a few billion dollars of extorted revenue.
Less than two weeks later, Intel =E2=80=9Cvoluntarily=E2=80=9D gave the gov=
ernment a 10 per
cent stake in exchange for financial support that it was already supposed
to receive under the CHIPS and Science Act, enacted in 2022.

Meanwhile, in response to the growing public demand for AI regulation of
some kind, Trump recently signed an executive order
<https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/promoting-advanced=
-artificial-intelligence-innovation-and-security/>
calling
for AI developers to subject themselves to regulation in limited contexts.
But the text of the document clearly reflects the influence of tech
oligarchs like Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk. For example, it states
explicitly that: =E2=80=9CNothing in this section shall be construed to aut=
horise
the creation of a mandatory governmental licensing, preclearance, or
permitting requirement for the development, publication, release, or
distribution of new AI models, including frontier models.=E2=80=9D

Administration officials claim that these moves toward state capitalism
will ensure that everyone benefits from AI. But if that was really the
goal, they would support taxes on corporate profits, which exist to ensure
that the benefits of economic activity are shared, in recognition of the
fact that corporations themselves have benefited from public goods.
Instead, this administration has undermined corporate taxation. In the
1970s, taxes on corporate profits generated
<https://www.brookings.edu/articles/taking-on-tax-toward-progressive-revenu=
e-raising-business-tax-reform/>
revenues
equal to 2.6 per cent of GDP, whereas today they raise only half that, even
though corporate profits as a share of GDP have almost doubled.

In any case, for anyone who thinks Trump and his cronies are acting out of
concern for the average American, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.
This is the most corrupt administration in US history =E2=80=93 by orders o=
f
magnitude. Nothing this government does is above board. Every stake it
takes in the private sector is driven by favouritism or senior
officials=E2=80=99 personal
investments
<https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/us/politics/inside-trumps-stock-trading=
-surge.html>,
and the resulting economic distortions will only continue to mount.

The GOP=E2=80=99s brand of capitalism has far-reaching implications. First,=
 and
most importantly, it undermines democracy, moving us ever closer to
oligarchy, where politically connected elites determine policy. Second, it
also undermines American prosperity. A core insight from modern economics
and economic history is that strong institutions, including the rule of
law, are essential to achieve sustained improvements in living standards.

Trump=E2=80=99s thuggery is the antithesis of the institutional foundation =
on which
the US economy was built. The winners in the new oligarchic competition are
not those who make the best products or are the most innovative (in terms
of AI, that title would seem to belong to Anthropic at the moment). Rather,
it is those who are the least principled, and the best at flattering the
mad king. Is anyone surprised that Sam Altman, the CEO of Anthropic=E2=80=
=99s
flailing competitor, OpenAI, first pitched
<https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/inside-altman-pitch-gove=
rnment-ai-085622954.html>
the
idea of government shares to the Trump administration?

The government has legitimate reasons both to promote nascent industries
and to regulate those where private profits could be misaligned with the
public interest =E2=80=93 as is manifestly the case with AI. But these mark=
et
interventions must adhere to the rule of law and submit to oversight from
independent institutions, rather than being conducted through opaque, ad
hoc self-dealing.

With Trump at the helm, America is doomed to join all the other countries
suffering under crony capitalism, rather than those that have demonstrated
what a successful industrial strategy looks like. Its economy, democracy,
and national security are all being sacrificed to satisfy the bottomless
cupidity of Trump and his flatterers.



Copyright Project Syndicate
<https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/joseph-e-stiglitz> 2026

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><a href=3D"https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/06/trump-is-r=
eplacing-capitalism-with-cronyism/">https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/06/tr=
ump-is-replacing-capitalism-with-cronyism/</a><div><br></div><div><div clas=
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ckground-position:50% center;text-align:center"><a href=3D"https://johnmena=
due.com/" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(13,110,253);text-decorat=
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eight:1.5;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:NextSoutherlandSerifDEMO;letter-spac=
ing:-0.1px;white-space:nowrap">Pearls and Irritations</h1></a></div></div><=
div class=3D"gmail-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;width:1320px;p=
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ms-md-3" src=3D"https://publish.pearlsandirritations.com/wp-content/uploads=
/2026/06/us-tech-billionaires.jpg" alt=3D"Trump is replacing capitalism wit=
h cronyism" title=3D"Washington, United States. 20th Jan, 2025. Guests incl=
uding Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Sundar Pichai and Elon Musk, arrive befo=
re the 60th Presidential Inauguration in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol in=
 Washington, Monday, Jan. 20, 2025. Pool Photo by Julia Demaree Nikhinson U=
PI Credit UPI Alamy Live News Image ID2S80BAR" style=3D"box-sizing: border-=
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rem; float: right; margin-left: 1rem;"></div><span class=3D"gmail-card-text=
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:1.25"><a href=3D"https://johnmenadue.com/authors/joseph-e-stiglitz/" class=
=3D"gmail-text-decoration-none gmail-fs-5" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;c=
olor:rgb(13,110,253);text-decoration:none;font-size:1.25rem"><span class=3D=
"gmail-text-danger" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(160,116,10)">J=
oseph E. Stiglitz</span></a></span><h1 style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margi=
n-top:0px;margin-bottom:0.5rem;font-weight:500;line-height:1.2;color:rgb(0,=
0,0);font-size:3em;font-family:GTSuperDisplayBold">Trump is replacing capit=
alism with cronyism</h1><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:0px;ma=
rgin-bottom:1rem">June 26, 2026</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin=
-top:0px;margin-bottom:1rem"><span id=3D"gmail-sharing" style=3D"box-sizing=
:border-box">=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0</span></p><div class=3D"gmail-fs-5 gm=
ail-pi_article_content" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.25rem"><=
p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:1rem"><em sty=
le=3D"box-sizing:border-box">Donald Trump=E2=80=99s use of state power to e=
xtract concessions from AI and technology firms is not industrial policy, b=
ut a corrupt form of crony capitalism that threatens US democracy, prosperi=
ty and the rule of law.</em></p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-to=
p:0px;margin-bottom:1rem">President Donald Trump claims that electing =E2=
=80=9Csocialist=E2=80=9D Democrats would put the United States on the path =
to becoming Venezuela or Cuba. But Trump=E2=80=99s own actions, as is often=
 the case, fly in the face of what he says and what his Republican Party su=
pposedly stands for. Far from continuing to champion capitalism and free en=
terprise, Trump=E2=80=99s GOP no longer supports either.</p><p style=3D"box=
-sizing:border-box;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:1rem">What has distinguishe=
d American-style capitalism is strict private ownership of firms. Under Chi=
nese- and Russian-style capitalism, the government owns seemingly ordinary =
firms through corrupt arrangements that ultimately serve political leaders =
and their cronies =E2=80=93 a system bearing little relation to the kind of=
 economy that one studies in an introductory economics course. But now, the=
 US is on the same path as Russia and China.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:bord=
er-box;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:1rem">I have long argued that there is =
more scope for government intervention in the US economy through industrial=
 policy, and that regulation is needed in many areas to align private inter=
ests and the public good. But I have always argued that such interventions =
must be institutionalised, following impersonal, transparent processes that=
 avoid even the appearance of political favouritism.</p><p style=3D"box-siz=
ing:border-box;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:1rem">The Republican Party, by =
contrast, has tacitly endorsed Trump=E2=80=99s thuggish capitalism, a model=
 nothing like the rules-based market economy that conservatives used to end=
orse. It is thus no surprise =E2=80=93 but very worrying =E2=80=93 that the=
 Trump administration is reportedly in=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.reuters.=
com/legal/transactional/us-officials-eye-government-stakes-ai-companies-not=
us-reports-2026-06-05/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(0,0,0);text-decoration:underline rgb(18=
4,134,11)">discussions</a>=C2=A0that could lead Anthropic, OpenAI, and othe=
r AI firms =E2=80=9Cvoluntarily=E2=80=9D to cede =E2=80=9Cshares to the gov=
ernment,=E2=80=9D just as Putin has =E2=80=9Cvoluntarily=E2=80=9D received =
support from Russia=E2=80=99s oligarchs.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-b=
ox;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:1rem">From Russia and China to Saudi Arabia=
 (where wealthy elites were detained in the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton for three m=
onths in 2017-18, until they handed over sufficient shares in their holding=
s), businesspeople have learned not to challenge the government. Alibaba fo=
under Jack Ma and former Russian oligarchs like Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Bo=
ris Berezovsky can attest to that.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;mar=
gin-top:0px;margin-bottom:1rem">Trump may not go to the same extremes as Pu=
tin or Xi, but his basic approach is the same. His administration=E2=80=99s=
 treatment of Anthropic is reminiscent of how the Chinese government dealt =
with Ma when he dared to criticise regulators. After suddenly slapping an e=
xport ban on Anthropic=E2=80=99s most advanced tools earlier this month, th=
e administration is holding new =E2=80=9Cdiscussions,=E2=80=9D presumably t=
o extract additional concessions from the country=E2=80=99s fastest-growing=
 AI lab.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:=
1rem">The administration already took decisive steps in this direction last=
 August, when it demanded that Nvidia and AMD give the US government a 15 p=
er cent cut of their sales to China in return for lifting export bans. In t=
his case, Trump openly traded national security (the purported justificatio=
n for the bans) for a few billion dollars of extorted revenue. Less than tw=
o weeks later, Intel =E2=80=9Cvoluntarily=E2=80=9D gave the government a 10=
 per cent stake in exchange for financial support that it was already suppo=
sed to receive under the CHIPS and Science Act, enacted in 2022.</p><p styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:1rem">Meanwhile, in=
 response to the growing public demand for AI regulation of some kind, Trum=
p recently signed an=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidentia=
l-actions/2026/06/promoting-advanced-artificial-intelligence-innovation-and=
-security/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizi=
ng:border-box;color:rgb(0,0,0);text-decoration:underline rgb(184,134,11)">e=
xecutive order</a>=C2=A0calling for AI developers to subject themselves to =
regulation in limited contexts. But the text of the document clearly reflec=
ts the influence of tech oligarchs like Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk. For =
example, it states explicitly that: =E2=80=9CNothing in this section shall =
be construed to authorise the creation of a mandatory governmental licensin=
g, preclearance, or permitting requirement for the development, publication=
, release, or distribution of new AI models, including frontier models.=E2=
=80=9D</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:1r=
em">Administration officials claim that these moves toward state capitalism=
 will ensure that everyone benefits from AI. But if that was really the goa=
l, they would support taxes on corporate profits, which exist to ensure tha=
t the benefits of economic activity are shared, in recognition of the fact =
that corporations themselves have benefited from public goods. Instead, thi=
s administration has undermined corporate taxation. In the 1970s, taxes on =
corporate profits=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.brookings.edu/articles/taking=
-on-tax-toward-progressive-revenue-raising-business-tax-reform/" target=3D"=
_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rg=
b(0,0,0);text-decoration:underline rgb(184,134,11)">generated</a>=C2=A0reve=
nues equal to 2.6 per cent of GDP, whereas today they raise only half that,=
 even though corporate profits as a share of GDP have almost doubled.</p><p=
 style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:1rem">In any c=
ase, for anyone who thinks Trump and his cronies are acting out of concern =
for the average American, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. This is =
the most corrupt administration in US history =E2=80=93 by orders of magnit=
ude. Nothing this government does is above board. Every stake it takes in t=
he private sector is driven by favouritism or senior officials=E2=80=99=C2=
=A0<a href=3D"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/us/politics/inside-trumps-=
stock-trading-surge.html" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" sty=
le=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(0,0,0);text-decoration:underline rgb(=
184,134,11)">personal investments</a>, and the resulting economic distortio=
ns will only continue to mount.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin=
-top:0px;margin-bottom:1rem">The GOP=E2=80=99s brand of capitalism has far-=
reaching implications. First, and most importantly, it undermines democracy=
, moving us ever closer to oligarchy, where politically connected elites de=
termine policy. Second, it also undermines American prosperity. A core insi=
ght from modern economics and economic history is that strong institutions,=
 including the rule of law, are essential to achieve sustained improvements=
 in living standards.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:0px;m=
argin-bottom:1rem">Trump=E2=80=99s thuggery is the antithesis of the instit=
utional foundation on which the US economy was built. The winners in the ne=
w oligarchic competition are not those who make the best products or are th=
e most innovative (in terms of AI, that title would seem to belong to Anthr=
opic at the moment). Rather, it is those who are the least principled, and =
the best at flattering the mad king. Is anyone surprised that Sam Altman, t=
he CEO of Anthropic=E2=80=99s flailing competitor, OpenAI, first=C2=A0<a hr=
ef=3D"https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/inside-altman-pitch=
-government-ai-085622954.html" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer=
" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(0,0,0);text-decoration:underline=
 rgb(184,134,11)">pitched</a>=C2=A0the idea of government shares to the Tru=
mp administration?</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:0px;marg=
in-bottom:1rem">The government has legitimate reasons both to promote nasce=
nt industries and to regulate those where private profits could be misalign=
ed with the public interest =E2=80=93 as is manifestly the case with AI. Bu=
t these market interventions must adhere to the rule of law and submit to o=
versight from independent institutions, rather than being conducted through=
 opaque, ad hoc self-dealing.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-t=
op:0px;margin-bottom:1rem">With Trump at the helm, America is doomed to joi=
n all the other countries suffering under crony capitalism, rather than tho=
se that have demonstrated what a successful industrial strategy looks like.=
 Its economy, democracy, and national security are all being sacrificed to =
satisfy the bottomless cupidity of Trump and his flatterers.</p><p style=3D=
"box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:1rem">=C2=A0</p><p styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:1rem">Copyright=C2=
=A0<a href=3D"https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/joseph-e-stiglitz=
" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-=
box;color:rgb(0,0,0);text-decoration:underline rgb(184,134,11)">Project Syn=
dicate</a>=C2=A02026</p></div></div></div></div></div><div><br></div><div><=
br></div></div></div>

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Subject: [Salon] Neither Victory nor Liberation: After Three Years of War,
 We Need a Palestinian State Side by Side With Israel
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*https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2026-06-28/ty-article-opinion/.premium/nei=
ther-victory-nor-liberation-we-need-a-palestinian-and-israeli-state/0000019=
f-0ab9-db84-a1df-9bbfc11d0000
<https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2026-06-28/ty-article-opinion/.premium/nei=
ther-victory-nor-liberation-we-need-a-palestinian-and-israeli-state/0000019=
f-0ab9-db84-a1df-9bbfc11d0000>*

*Neither Victory nor Liberation: After Three Years of War, We Need a
Palestinian State Side by Side With Israel*
*Ayman Odeh =E2=80=A2 June 28 2026*
[image: =D7=94=D7=A4=D7=92=D7=A0=D7=94 =D7=91=D7=92=D7=91=D7=95=D7=9C =D7=
=A8=D7=A6=D7=95=D7=A2=D7=AA =D7=A2=D7=96=D7=94]
*Israeli and Palestinian Standing Together activists in 2018 hold up signs
that say 'Two nations, one hope.' Credit: Eliyahu Hershkovitz*

*Beyond all the narratives and all the historic score-settling, human life
is the most precious thing of all: people are more important than land, and
this land is already saturated with too much blood*

*After three years of continuous bloodshed, the overall picture of the
whirlwind that has visited the Middle East is beginning to come clear. What
began at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict turned into a
regional war with direct involvement of the United States and indirect
involvement of China and Russia. It culminated in a crisis with global
ramifications that, based on various estimates, cost the world economy
around $2.2 trillion.*

*All this makes clear just how important the Palestinian issue continues to
be to Israel's main story. And its influence also extends far beyond
Israel's borders.*

*The following are 10 insights from the war. All of them lead to the
conclusion that there will be no peace, stability or security for the
Middle East without a just solution to the Palestinian issue.*
[image: =D7=A4=D7=A0=D7=93=D7=A7=D7=95=D7=9E=D7=99=D7=94 =D7=AA=D7=A7=D7=99=
=D7=A4=D7=AA =D7=9E=D7=AA=D7=A0=D7=97=D7=9C=D7=99=D7=9D]
*The aftermath of a settler arson in the West Bank. Credit: AFP/ZAIN JAAFAR=
*

*1. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's life's work has been the attempt to
bypass the Palestinian issue, as is clear from his book "A Place Among the
Nations." He therefore worked to destroy the Oslo Accords, signed the
Abraham Accords, and stood at the UN podium two weeks before Hamas' attack
on October 7, 2023 and showed a map of the Middle East that contained no
mention of the Palestinians.*
*But in an irony of history, the most prominent mark left by his time in
office is actually the constant presence of the Palestinian issue. The man
who tried to bypass it discovered that it may be possible to postpone
addressing historical questions, but it's impossible to make them
disappear.*

*2. Netanyahu and the right spent years pushing the doctrine of "managing
the conflict," which also won support from the leaders of our weak
opposition, on the assumption that it was possible to suffice with doing
constant maintenance of the existing situation. But in the end, reality
proved that the doctrine of managing the conflict has collapsed.*

*3. The war also put an end to theories that advocated winning the
conflict, whether through "total victory" by the Israelis or "total
liberation" (of Israel as well as the West Bank and Gaza Strip) by the
Palestinians. The October 7 massacre and the ensuing war of annihilation in
the Gaza Strip, despite the lack of symmetry between an occupied people and
the occupying power, were both unprecedented peaks of violence and
destruction. For that very reason, it is now time to recognize the limits
of force and the existential need to find a political solution.*
[image: IDF soldiers in Gaza.]
*IDF soldiers in Gaza. Credit: IDF Spokesperson*

*4. The outcome of this war was totally different from the outcome of
previous wars. During the 1948 War of Independence, the Palestinian people
experienced a Nakba, whereas the vast majority of Israeli Jews felt great
joy. During the Six-Day War of 1967, the Palestinians and other Arab
nations suffered a severe humiliation, whereas the vast majority of Israeli
Jews felt pride.*

*But this war was completely different. It ended with both peoples
bleeding, exhausted and fearful. And both are looking toward the future =E2=
=80=93
the near future and the distant future =E2=80=93 with deep uncertainty.*

*5. For the Zionist left, the foundational event of the last 30 years was
the Oslo Accords. But for the Israeli right, the foundational event was the
October 7 attack and the war that followed it. This was an extremely long,
expensive and destructive war in which an unprecedented amount of force was
used. Yet even this war didn't bring Israel security.*
[image: Anti-government protest in Caesarea, March.]
*Anti-government protest in Caesarea, March. Credit: Fadi Amun *

*For years, the right's accusation against the left has been that
negotiating with the Palestinians didn't bring security. Even if the right
refuses to admit this, it is now clear that the right's ideology, which
offered nothing but occupation and perpetual war, also didn't bring
security =E2=80=93 not even after an extremely long, expensive and painful =
war. *

*6. Following Israel's unilateral pullout in 2005, Gaza was largely erased
from Israelis' consciousness. But the October 7 massacre and the ensuing
war of annihilation returned it to center stage and reminded us that some
7.5 million Palestinians live between the Jordan River and the
Mediterranean Sea =E2=80=93 roughly similar to the number of Jews living th=
ere.
Now, after all the plans for population transfer have collapsed, Israel is
facing a difficult choice =E2=80=93 either full apartheid, a single state o=
f all
its citizens or a two-state solution. *

*7. Three key countries in the Middle East are vying for regional influence
=E2=80=93 Israel, Turkey and Iran. The Palestinian issue is at the heart of=
 this
competition. Israel's connection to it is inherent. Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan has turned support for the Palestinians into one of the
sources of Turkey's legitimacy and influence in region. And Iran and its
allies have placed the conflict with Israel at the heart of their regional
worldview.*
[image: Netanyahu meeting with Erdogan at the UN in New York in 2023.]
*Netanyahu meeting with Erdogan at the UN in New York in 2023. Credit:
Turkish Presidency Press Office/AFP*

*The Arab world still lacks a common diplomatic goal. But in recent years,
Saudi Arabia has been leading a clear policy of conditioning normalization
with Israel on the establishment of a Palestinian state in the framework of
a two-state solution. This policy has won widespread international support,
as reflected at the Saudi-French conference on a two-state solution that
took place in July 2025.*

*8. The war of annihilation in Gaza wrought a major change in international
public opinion. After most of the world expressed solidarity with Israel
following Hamas' attack on October 7, a gradual change began and
intensified as the war continued. According to various polls, roughly 75
percent of Americans and 85 percent of Europeans now identify with the
Palestinians, their right to live in dignity and their demand for an end to
the occupation. *

*This is an unprecedented change. Even U.S. Vice President JD Vance said
last week that "You're a country of nine million people. You can't just
kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that
you have." He added that Israel continues to exist thanks to American arms
that are funded by the American taxpayer =E2=80=93 an unusual comment that =
attests
to the growing disgust with the perpetual war even in key circles of the
Republican Party. This, too, is unprecedented.*

*9. Israel's security doctrine rests to a large extent on the concept of
deterrence. But Israel's deterrence was significantly eroded on October 7
and continued to be eroded during the first months of the war. Israel
managed to rehabilitate its status to some extent starting in the second
half of 2024, but the recent war with Iran has eroded its deterrence once
again.*

*As of June 2026, Israel's deterrence is the weakest it has been since
1967. That is evidence of the magnitude of the shock Israel's security
doctrine has suffered.*

*10. Logic dictates that the more convenient the occupation becomes, the
less of an incentive Israel has to end it. But in recent years, the
occupation has become very painful and expensive for Israel. Its direct
toll numbers in the tens of thousands =E2=80=93 including the dead, the wou=
nded,
the bereaved families and the orphans. And that's on top of the economic
crisis, the government's judicial overhaul and the rise of religious
Zionism and Kahanism which flourish in the world of the occupation and the
settlements.*
[image: An Israeli settler stands between Israeli security forces, west of
Hebron in the occupied West Bank, last week.]
*An Israeli settler stands between Israeli security forces, west of Hebron
in the occupied West Bank, last week.Credit: AFP/HAZEM BADER*

*The occupation was always costly for the Palestinians. But it has now
become a heavy burden on Israelis, Israel and the entire region as well.*

*In 1938, Shaul Tchernichovsky wrote, "See oh land how wasteful we have
been." In 1981, Emile Habibi said at a meeting hosted by the magazine
Al-Carmel with two other giants of Palestinian literature and poetry =E2=80=
=93
Mahmoud Darwish and Elias Khoury =E2=80=93 that the thing that pained him m=
ost was
the price the Palestinians were paying in human life at a time when the
Palestinian people still hadn't been able to exercise its right to
self-determination.*

*The blood of all the victims, Palestinian and Israeli, cries out from the
ground. Beyond all the disputes, all the narratives and all the historic
score-settling, human life is the most precious thing of all, and both
peoples have continued to waste it for more than 100 years. People are more
important than land, and this land is already saturated with too much
blood.*

*Consequently, we need to strive for a diplomatic solution, put an end to
the occupation and respect the national rights of both of the nations
living here. And the only possible solution that can ensure justice and
security for both peoples is the establishment of a Palestinian state
alongside the state of Israel. Nothing less, and nothing more.*

*Ayman Odeh is a member of Knesset and chairman of the Hadash-Ta'al party.*

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir=
=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><b style=3D"background-color:transparent"><fo=
nt face=3D"georgia, serif"><a href=3D"https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2026-=
06-28/ty-article-opinion/.premium/neither-victory-nor-liberation-we-need-a-=
palestinian-and-israeli-state/0000019f-0ab9-db84-a1df-9bbfc11d0000" target=
=3D"_blank">https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2026-06-28/ty-article-opinion/.=
premium/neither-victory-nor-liberation-we-need-a-palestinian-and-israeli-st=
ate/0000019f-0ab9-db84-a1df-9bbfc11d0000</a></font></b></div><div dir=3D"lt=
r"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><br></font></b></=
div><div><h1 style=3D"line-height:1.2141em;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0.5=
em;max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif" size=
=3D"4"><i>Neither Victory nor Liberation: After Three Years of War, We Need=
 a Palestinian State Side by Side With Israel</i></font></h1><div style=3D"=
margin-bottom:1.45em;max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"g=
eorgia, serif"><a rel=3D"author" style=3D"margin:0px;max-width:100%;display=
:inline">Ayman Odeh</a>=C2=A0=E2=80=A2 June 28 2026</font></b></div><div st=
yle=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><div style=3D"max-width:100%"><d=
iv style=3D"max-width:100%"><img title=3D"Israeli and Palestinian Standing =
Together activists in 2018 hold up signs that say &#39;Two nations, one hop=
e.&#39;. Credit: Eliyahu Hershkovitz" alt=3D"=D7=94=D7=A4=D7=92=D7=A0=D7=94=
 =D7=91=D7=92=D7=91=D7=95=D7=9C =D7=A8=D7=A6=D7=95=D7=A2=D7=AA =D7=A2=D7=96=
=D7=94" width=3D"412" height=3D"239" src=3D"https://img.haarets.co.il/bs/00=
00019f-0ab9-db84-a1df-9bbfbe500000/d8/7f/ebe7b34e4b08abf81a21f8f9915a/66124=
059.JPG?&amp;width=3D420&amp;height=3D244&amp;cmsprod" style=3D"margin:0.5e=
m 0px 0.5em auto;display:block"></div></div><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif=
"><span style=3D"max-width:100%;margin-top:0.25em;margin-bottom:0.25em">Isr=
aeli and Palestinian Standing Together activists in 2018 hold up signs that=
 say &#39;Two nations, one hope.&#39;</span><span>=C2=A0</span><span style=
=3D"max-width:100%;margin-top:0.25em;margin-bottom:0.25em">Credit: Eliyahu =
Hershkovitz</span></font></b></div><div style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(2=
7,27,27)"><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">Beyo=
nd all the narratives and all the historic score-settling, human life is th=
e most precious thing of all: people are more important than land, and this=
 land is already saturated with too much blood</font></b></p><p style=3D"ma=
x-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">After three years of continu=
ous bloodshed, the overall picture of the whirlwind that has visited the Mi=
ddle East is beginning to come clear. What began at the heart of the Israel=
i-Palestinian conflict turned into a regional war with direct involvement o=
f the United States and indirect involvement of China and Russia. It culmin=
ated in a crisis with global ramifications that, based on various estimates=
, cost the world economy around $2.2 trillion.</font></b></p><p style=3D"ma=
x-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">All this makes clear just ho=
w important the Palestinian issue continues to be to Israel&#39;s main stor=
y. And its influence also extends far beyond Israel&#39;s borders.</font></=
b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">The foll=
owing are 10 insights from the war. All of them lead to the conclusion that=
 there will be no peace, stability or security for the Middle East without =
a just solution to the Palestinian issue.</font></b></p><div style=3D"max-w=
idth:100%"><div style=3D"max-width:100%"><img title=3D"The aftermath of a s=
ettler arson in the West Bank. Credit: AFP/ZAIN JAAFAR" alt=3D"=D7=A4=D7=A0=
=D7=93=D7=A7=D7=95=D7=9E=D7=99=D7=94 =D7=AA=D7=A7=D7=99=D7=A4=D7=AA =D7=9E=
=D7=AA=D7=A0=D7=97=D7=9C=D7=99=D7=9D" width=3D"412" height=3D"275" src=3D"h=
ttps://img.haarets.co.il/bs/0000019f-0ab9-db84-a1df-9bbfb7a90000/02/88/182b=
6009432899f309a9053bbc8b/66125150.JPG?&amp;width=3D420&amp;height=3D280&amp=
;cmsprod" style=3D"margin:0.5em 0px 0.5em auto;display:block"></div></div><=
b><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><span style=3D"max-width:100%;margin-top:0.=
25em;margin-bottom:0.25em">The aftermath of a settler arson in the West Ban=
k.</span><span>=C2=A0</span><span style=3D"max-width:100%;margin-top:0.25em=
;margin-bottom:0.25em">Credit: AFP/ZAIN JAAFAR</span></font></b><p style=3D=
"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">1. Prime Minister Benjami=
n Netanyahu&#39;s life&#39;s work has been the attempt to bypass the Palest=
inian issue, as is clear from his book &quot;A Place Among the Nations.&quo=
t; He therefore worked to destroy the<span>=C2=A0</span><a style=3D"color:r=
gb(65,110,210);max-width:100%">Oslo Accords</a>, signed the Abraham Accords=
, and stood at the UN podium two weeks before Hamas&#39; attack on October =
7, 2023 and showed a map of the Middle East that contained no mention of th=
e Palestinians.</font></b></p><div style=3D"max-width:100%"><div style=3D"m=
ax-width:100%"><h3 style=3D"max-width:100%"><b style=3D"font-size:small;bac=
kground-color:transparent"><font face=3D"georgia, serif">But in an irony of=
 history, the most prominent mark left by his time in office is actually th=
e constant presence of the Palestinian issue. The man who tried to bypass i=
t discovered that it may be possible to postpone addressing historical ques=
tions, but it&#39;s impossible to make them disappear.</font></b></h3></div=
></div><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">2.<span=
>=C2=A0</span><a style=3D"color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%">Netanyahu<s=
pan>=C2=A0</span></a>and the right spent years pushing the doctrine of &quo=
t;managing the conflict,&quot; which also won support from the leaders of o=
ur weak opposition, on the assumption that it was possible to suffice with =
doing constant maintenance of the existing situation. But in the end, reali=
ty proved that the doctrine of managing the conflict has collapsed.</font><=
/b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">3. The =
war also put an end to theories that advocated winning the conflict, whethe=
r through &quot;total victory&quot; by the Israelis or &quot;total liberati=
on&quot; (of Israel as well as the<span>=C2=A0</span><a style=3D"color:rgb(=
65,110,210);max-width:100%">West Bank</a><span>=C2=A0</span>and Gaza Strip)=
 by the Palestinians. The October 7 massacre and the ensuing war of annihil=
ation in the Gaza Strip, despite the lack of symmetry between an occupied p=
eople and the occupying power, were both unprecedented peaks of violence an=
d destruction. For that very reason, it is now time to recognize the limits=
 of force and the existential need to find a political solution.</font></b>=
</p><div style=3D"max-width:100%"><div style=3D"max-width:100%"><img title=
=3D"IDF soldiers in Gaza. Credit: IDF Spokesperson" alt=3D"IDF soldiers in =
Gaza." width=3D"412" height=3D"275" src=3D"https://img.haarets.co.il/bs/000=
0018c-fc9e-dd94-a9cc-fefec8350000/c1/94/5bcffa5e4c1b8eb360511da48efb/doz1.j=
peg?&amp;width=3D420&amp;height=3D280&amp;cmsprod" style=3D"margin:0.5em 0p=
x 0.5em auto;display:block"></div></div><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><s=
pan style=3D"max-width:100%;margin-top:0.25em;margin-bottom:0.25em">IDF sol=
diers in Gaza.</span><span>=C2=A0</span><span style=3D"max-width:100%;margi=
n-top:0.25em;margin-bottom:0.25em">Credit: IDF Spokesperson</span></font></=
b><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">4. The outco=
me of this war was totally different from the outcome of previous wars. Dur=
ing the 1948 War of Independence, the Palestinian people experienced a Nakb=
a, whereas the vast majority of Israeli Jews felt great joy. During the Six=
-Day War of 1967, the Palestinians and other Arab nations suffered a severe=
 humiliation, whereas the vast majority of Israeli Jews felt pride.</font><=
/b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">But thi=
s war was completely different. It ended with both peoples bleeding, exhaus=
ted and fearful. And both are looking toward the future =E2=80=93 the near =
future and the distant future =E2=80=93 with deep uncertainty.</font></b></=
p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">5. For the Z=
ionist left, the foundational event of the last 30 years was the Oslo Accor=
ds. But for the Israeli right, the foundational event was the October 7 att=
ack and the war that followed it. This was an extremely long, expensive and=
 destructive war in which an unprecedented amount of force was used. Yet ev=
en this<span>=C2=A0</span><a style=3D"color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%"=
>war didn&#39;t bring Israel security</a>.</font></b></p><div style=3D"max-=
width:100%"><div style=3D"max-width:100%"><img title=3D"Anti-government pro=
test in Caesarea, March. Credit: Fadi Amun" alt=3D"Anti-government protest =
in Caesarea, March." width=3D"412" height=3D"276" src=3D"https://img.haaret=
s.co.il/bs/0000018e-6c67-d477-abbf-ef67107b0000/8b/ad/679aac4f4ad7a7777b427=
24bff27/93833.jpg?&amp;width=3D420&amp;height=3D281&amp;cmsprod" style=3D"m=
argin:0.5em 0px 0.5em auto;display:block"></div></div><b><font face=3D"geor=
gia, serif"><span style=3D"max-width:100%;margin-top:0.25em;margin-bottom:0=
.25em">Anti-government protest in Caesarea, March.</span><span>=C2=A0</span=
><span style=3D"max-width:100%;margin-top:0.25em;margin-bottom:0.25em">Cred=
it: Fadi Amun<span>=C2=A0</span></span></font></b><p style=3D"max-width:100=
%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">For years, the right&#39;s accusation a=
gainst the left has been that negotiating with the Palestinians didn&#39;t =
bring security. Even if the right refuses to admit this, it is now clear th=
at the right&#39;s ideology, which offered nothing but occupation and perpe=
tual war, also didn&#39;t bring security =E2=80=93 not even after an extrem=
ely long, expensive and painful war.<span>=C2=A0</span></font></b></p><p st=
yle=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">6. Following Israel=
&#39;s unilateral pullout in 2005, Gaza was largely erased from Israelis&#3=
9; consciousness. But the October 7 massacre and the ensuing war of annihil=
ation returned it to center stage and reminded us that some 7.5 million Pal=
estinians live between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea =E2=80=93=
 roughly similar to the number of Jews living there. Now, after all the pla=
ns for population transfer have collapsed, Israel is facing a difficult cho=
ice =E2=80=93 either full apartheid, a single state of all its citizens or =
a two-state solution.<span>=C2=A0</span></font></b></p><p style=3D"max-widt=
h:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">7. Three key countries in the Midd=
le East are vying for regional influence =E2=80=93 Israel,<span>=C2=A0</spa=
n><a style=3D"color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%">Turkey<span>=C2=A0</spa=
n></a>and Iran. The Palestinian issue is at the heart of this competition. =
Israel&#39;s connection to it is inherent. Turkish President Recep Tayyip E=
rdogan has turned support for the Palestinians into one of the sources of T=
urkey&#39;s legitimacy and influence in region. And Iran and its allies hav=
e placed the conflict with Israel at the heart of their regional worldview.=
</font></b></p><div style=3D"max-width:100%"><div style=3D"max-width:100%">=
<img title=3D"Netanyahu meeting with Erdogan at the UN in New York in 2023.=
 Credit: Turkish Presidency Press Office/AFP" alt=3D"Netanyahu meeting with=
 Erdogan at the UN in New York in 2023." width=3D"412" height=3D"290" src=
=3D"https://img.haarets.co.il/bs/0000019f-02c5-d4c5-a9ff-9fc77de10001/2f/4d=
/419016344e73a371c5375e9ceec2/588886.jpg?&amp;width=3D420&amp;height=3D296&=
amp;cmsprod" style=3D"margin:0.5em 0px 0.5em auto;display:block"></div></di=
v><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><span style=3D"max-width:100%;margin-top=
:0.25em;margin-bottom:0.25em">Netanyahu meeting with Erdogan at the UN in N=
ew York in 2023.</span><span>=C2=A0</span><span style=3D"max-width:100%;mar=
gin-top:0.25em;margin-bottom:0.25em">Credit: Turkish Presidency Press Offic=
e/AFP</span></font></b><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia=
, serif">The Arab world still lacks a common diplomatic goal. But in recent=
 years, Saudi Arabia has been leading a clear policy of conditioning normal=
ization with Israel on the establishment of a Palestinian state in the fram=
ework of a two-state solution. This policy has won widespread international=
 support, as reflected at the Saudi-French conference on a two-state soluti=
on that took place in July 2025.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%">=
<b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">8. The war of annihilation in Gaza wrought=
 a major change in international public opinion. After most of the world ex=
pressed solidarity with Israel following Hamas&#39; attack on October 7, a =
gradual change began and intensified as the war continued. According to var=
ious polls, roughly 75 percent of Americans and 85 percent of Europeans now=
 identify with the Palestinians, their right to live in dignity and their d=
emand for an end to the occupation.<span>=C2=A0</span></font></b></p><div s=
tyle=3D"max-width:100%"><div style=3D"max-width:100%"><div style=3D"max-wid=
th:100%"><div style=3D"max-width:100%"><p></p></div></div></div></div><p st=
yle=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">This is an unpreced=
ented change. Even U.S. Vice President JD Vance said last week that &quot;Y=
ou&#39;re a country of nine million people. You can&#39;t just kill your wa=
y out of solving every single national security problem that you have.&quot=
; He added that Israel continues to exist thanks to American arms that are =
funded by the American taxpayer =E2=80=93 an unusual comment that attests t=
o the growing disgust with the perpetual war even in key circles of the Rep=
ublican Party. This, too, is unprecedented.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-w=
idth:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">9. Israel&#39;s security doctri=
ne rests to a large extent on the concept of deterrence. But Israel&#39;s d=
eterrence was significantly eroded on October 7 and continued to be eroded =
during the first months of the war. Israel managed to rehabilitate its stat=
us to some extent starting in the second half of 2024, but the recent war w=
ith Iran has eroded its deterrence once again.</font></b></p><p style=3D"ma=
x-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">As of June 2026, Israel&#39;=
s deterrence is the weakest it has been since 1967. That is evidence of the=
 magnitude of the shock Israel&#39;s security doctrine has suffered.</font>=
</b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">10. Lo=
gic dictates that the more convenient the occupation becomes, the less of a=
n incentive Israel has to end it. But in recent years, the occupation has b=
ecome very painful and expensive for Israel. Its direct toll numbers in the=
 tens of thousands =E2=80=93 including the dead, the wounded, the bereaved =
families and the orphans. And that&#39;s on top of the economic crisis, the=
 government&#39;s judicial overhaul and the rise of religious Zionism and K=
ahanism which flourish in the world of the occupation and the settlements.<=
/font></b></p><div style=3D"max-width:100%"><div style=3D"max-width:100%"><=
img title=3D"An Israeli settler stands between Israeli security forces, wes=
t of Hebron in the occupied West Bank, last week. Credit: AFP/HAZEM BADER" =
alt=3D"An Israeli settler stands between Israeli security forces, west of H=
ebron in the occupied West Bank, last week." width=3D"412" height=3D"276" s=
rc=3D"https://img.haarets.co.il/bs/0000019e-acc0-db2a-a59f-eee7ef0a0000/79/=
9b/a34bb73f407f95aeb5bfe51a6a21/250971.jpg?&amp;width=3D420&amp;height=3D28=
1&amp;cmsprod" style=3D"margin:0.5em 0px 0.5em auto;display:block"></div></=
div><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><span style=3D"max-width:100%;margin-t=
op:0.25em;margin-bottom:0.25em">An Israeli settler stands between Israeli s=
ecurity forces, west of Hebron in the occupied West Bank, last week.</span>=
<span style=3D"max-width:100%;margin-top:0.25em;margin-bottom:0.25em">Credi=
t: AFP/HAZEM BADER</span></font></b><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font fa=
ce=3D"georgia, serif">The occupation was always costly for the Palestinians=
. But it has now become a heavy burden on Israelis, Israel and the entire r=
egion as well.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"g=
eorgia, serif">In 1938, Shaul Tchernichovsky wrote, &quot;See oh land how w=
asteful we have been.&quot; In 1981, Emile Habibi said at a meeting hosted =
by the magazine Al-Carmel with two other giants of Palestinian literature a=
nd poetry =E2=80=93 Mahmoud Darwish and Elias Khoury =E2=80=93 that the thi=
ng that pained him most was the price the Palestinians were paying in human=
 life at a time when the Palestinian people still hadn&#39;t been able to e=
xercise its right to self-determination.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-widt=
h:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">The blood of all the victims, Pale=
stinian and Israeli, cries out from the ground. Beyond all the disputes, al=
l the narratives and all the historic score-settling, human life is the mos=
t precious thing of all, and both peoples have continued to waste it for mo=
re than 100 years. People are more important than land, and this land is al=
ready saturated with too much blood.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:10=
0%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">Consequently, we need to strive for a =
diplomatic solution, put an end to the occupation and respect the national =
rights of both of the nations living here. And the only possible solution t=
hat can ensure justice and security for both peoples is the establishment o=
f a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel. Nothing less, and noth=
ing more.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><em style=3D"max-width:=
100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">Ayman Odeh is a member of Knesset an=
d chairman of the Hadash-Ta&#39;al party.</font></b></em></p></div></div></=
div>
</div>
</div></div>

--00000000000047d1bf06554f6de8--

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Subject: [Salon] Sold-out Lebanese authorities have given the green light to
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https://x.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/2070663817827143808
Sold-out Lebanese authorities have given the green light to Israel to
extend its invasion of the country=E2=80=99s south, validating its ethnic c=
leansing
of Shia citizens

Behind them is Rubio, a pet project of the Israel lobby, delivering a
hammer blow to the MOU, and shivving JD Vance

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir=
=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><a href=3D"https://x.com/MaxBlumenthal/status=
/2070663817827143808" rel=3D"noreferrer" target=3D"_blank" style=3D"backgro=
und-color:transparent">https://x.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/20706638178271438=
08</a></div>
Sold-out Lebanese authorities have given the green light to Israel to exten=
d its invasion of the country=E2=80=99s south, validating its ethnic cleans=
ing of Shia citizens<br>
<br>
Behind them is Rubio, a pet project of the Israel lobby, delivering a hamme=
r blow to the MOU, and shivving JD Vance<br>
</div></div>

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Subject: [Salon] What Lebanon actually signed away in its deal with 'Israel'
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*https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/what-lebanon-actually-signed-away-in-its-deal-with--israel
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/what-lebanon-actually-signed-away-in-its-deal-with--israel>*

6/28/26

*What Lebanon actually signed away in its deal with 'Israel'*

*What's worse than signing away sixty southern Lebanese villages to the
Israeli occupation in exchange for nothing? Doing it when a far better
alternative was sitting on the table. And what's worse than that? Doing it
in the name of "sovereignty."*

*Lebanese and Israeli officials are both calling Friday's trilateral
framework, signed in Washington under US sponsorship, "historic." In a
narrow sense, they are right. The Lebanese state has legitimized the
continued occupation of the South, handed "Israel" an outcome it could
never have secured through war, and thrown a lifeline to a Netanyahu
government that badly needed one.*

*Yet, calling Friday's framework "trilateral" is somewhat misleading. The
word suggests three sides walked into the room, when in essence, there was
one. The Lebanese delegation arrived with its friends and enemies already
settled, just as the US and Israeli delegations did.*

*Lebanon's friends, by this framework's own logic, are Washington and the
occupation. Its enemies, based on the March 2 governmental decree to
criminalize the Resistance, are Hezbollah and, behind it, Iran.*
The Resistance is now the enemy

*The text states plainly that "Israel's" military actions in Lebanon are
"solely a consequence" of the threat posed by "non-state armed groups," and
that ending this threat through their disarmament will "eliminate any
future need" for Israeli military action in Lebanon.*

*In other words, the Lebanese authority has signed onto the idea that
"Israel," an enemy state under Lebanon's own law, is no longer the
aggressor; Hezbollah is. Contrary to what a chronically online vocal
minority might want you to believe, the Israeli regime is not an enemy
state in Lebanese law only; roughly 87% of the Lebanese population views
"Israel" as an enemy.*

*The Lebanese state goes on to commit, in its own words, to rejecting "the
claims of any state or non-state actor to use force on its behalf without
its explicit authorization," and to treating any such claim as "illegal"
and "contrary to Lebanese national interests." Resistance to occupation,
something international law has never required a government's permission to
exercise, becomes a domestic crime the moment a government decides to call
it one.*

*This matters because of who exactly the Lebanese state has just declared a
threat to itself, as Hezbollah's constituency is not a fringe. Beyond being
the largest political party in the country, recent polling puts opposition
to disarmament at somewhere between 92 and 96 percent among Lebanon's Shia
community. A government cannot describe more than a third of its own
population as a security threat and call that an act of sovereignty.*
Redeployment is not withdrawal

*Search the entire text of the framework for the word withdrawal, and you
will not find it. "Israel" commits only to "progressively redeploy," a
phrase that appears nowhere in international law and exists only for to
avoid the obligations that come with acknowledging an occupation.*

*Aaron David Miller, who spent twenty-four years at the US State Department
negotiating Arab-Israeli normalization deals, pointed it out. "Israel had
pretty good lawyers," he wrote. "The word withdrawal doesn't appear,
redeployment does."*

*Netanyahu and his war minister have also removed any ambiguity about what
redeployment actually means. "Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon," war
minister Israel Katz said after the signing, "and will maintain the
security zone in the south, and will preserve the army's freedom of
action." Netanyahu described the same outcome as "a major achievement" that
the occupation "will maintain as long as Hezbollah has not disarmed and as
long as there is a threat to the State of Israel," a condition that
"Israel" alone gets to assess.*

*Even the two pilot zones offered as evidence of Israeli concessions are
not what they appear to be. One sits south of the Litani River, outside the
"security zone" that the Israeli occupation already controls. The other,
Netanyahu explained, is "a small part of the expanded security zone we
gained over the past two weeks, which the Israeli army does not need, and
it says so in the clearest possible terms."*

*However, to no one's surprise, Netanyahu is lying. The occupation never
actually established control over those areas to begin with, so Netanyahu
is offering up land he only ever claimed to have taken.*

*Lebanon is being asked to celebrate the return of land the Israeli
military says has no value to it, or even putting territories that were
never occupied under the so-called pilot zone model, while the original
security zone, including the area occupied specifically to allegedly "push
back the Radwan Force," stays put regardless of what happens with
disarmament.*
Still no ceasefire

*For all the talk of de-escalation, the framework does not contain a
ceasefire either.*

*"Israel" is not named anywhere in relation to halting its own attacks. The
document conditions calm not on "Israel" ending its aggression, withdrawing
from occupied territory, releasing prisoners, or allowing the displaced to
return, but on Hezbollah ceasing fire and withdrawing.*

*What is being sold as a cessation of hostilities is structured, in
practice, as the removal of Lebanese citizens from their own land, not the
removal of an occupying army from it.*
No court, no compensation, no answers on the prisoners

*Ironically, the Lebanese government, headed by the former President of the
International Court of Justice, signed away its own legal recourse.*

*The text commits both sides to "the cessation of all hostile or adverse
actions in international political or legal fora," language that
independent lawmaker Halima El Kaakour challenged directly to the president
and prime minister. "Does this mean not pursuing the enemy for its war
crimes and crimes against humanity?" she asked, warning that the clause
"deprives Lebanon of the possibility of substantial financial compensation"
and amounts to enshrining impunity rather than building peace.*

*Under this clause, Lebanon gives up any path to the ICC, any formal
complaint at the UN Security Council, any pursuit of accountability for the
Black Wednesday massacre, the pager attacks, or any of the killings carried
out over the past three years.*

*The same passage leaves Lebanese prisoners and the forcibly disappeared in
legal limbo. There is no commitment from "Israel" to disclose their fate,
allow Red Cross visits, or guarantee their release, the obligations
international humanitarian law already requires.*
The fine print

*Almost everything written into this framework imposes a hard, specific
obligation on Lebanon while leaving "Israel" and the United States with
language soft enough to mean whatever they need it to mean later.*

*Lebanon's commitment to disarm "all non-state armed groups" across the
entire country is unconditional and described as irreversible. The Israeli
regime's "redeployment," by contrast, depends on a "Security Annex" that
has not been published, verified by criteria the US will set, with
Washington cast as a neutral arbiter despite being "Israel's" principal
sponsor and arms supplier.*

*Reconstruction is structured the same way. Funds are barred from reaching
any "individual" affiliated with a non-state armed group, not just
organizations. Given how much of the South's population has some connection
to the Resistance, this clause functions less like counterterrorism
financing and more like a blanket ban on rebuilding most of the destroyed
villages in the South.*

*Even the word "communities" appears only once in the entire text, and it
refers to Israeli communities. South Lebanon, where the actual destruction
happened, is treated as a depopulated piece of land, empty of a "community"
in need of protection.*
April 8: The original sin

*To understand just how little weight Lebanon's own diplomacy carried in
any of this, and how easily its government let itself be used by the same
regime bombing it, it helps to go back to how these talks actually started.*

*President Joseph Aoun signaled willingness for direct talks with the
occupation regime back in early March, only for "Israel" to publicly
humiliate the offer. Sources told Reuters that Lebanon had "nothing
tangible to offer at a negotiating table." Foreign Minister Gideon Saar was
asked whether talks with Lebanon were planned and answered, "No." For
roughly four weeks, the same government that insisted only it had the
standing to negotiate a ceasefire could not get "Israel" to even sit down,
while the bombing continued.*

*The turning point came on April 8, when Pakistan's prime minister
announced a ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon, as part of the
Islamabad track Iran had insisted on. Within hours, the 'Israeli' regime
made clear it was not committing to any ceasefire in Lebanon specifically.
Simultaneously, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declared that securing a
ceasefire was a "sovereign matter" only the Lebanese government could
negotiate, rejecting any truce that arrived through Iran.*

*In doing so, Salam handed legitimacy to the massacre that followed within
hours, on what has since become known as Black Wednesday, when Israeli
attacks murdered more than 350 people across Lebanon in ten minutes.*

*The killings drew international condemnation, the kind that under any
government with a spine would have hardened Beirut's position rather than
softened it. Instead, the Lebanese state kept pursuing the same direct,
bilateral channel, the first of its kind in decades, with the same regime
that had just massacred hundreds of its people in minutes.*

*Then, just as suddenly, Netanyahu reversed course entirely. He framed it
as responding to Lebanon's "repeated requests" for talks, the same requests
his government had spent a month publicly mocking. "Israel" was not
responding to an improvement in Lebanese diplomacy. It was responding to
Iran, which had just made an end to hostilities in Lebanon a non-negotiable
piece of any wider de-escalation.*

*Netanyahu was not about to let Tehran dictate the terms of Israeli
activity in Lebanon, so he made sure Beirut delivered those terms to him
directly instead.*
What Pakistan got that Washington didn't

*The contrast with what Iran actually negotiated for Lebanon in the
Islamabad track versus what Lebanon's own government did in Washington is
immense.*

*The Islamabad memorandum called for an immediate ceasefire on the Lebanon
front, full Israeli withdrawal from the South and all Lebanese territory
within two months, extension of Lebanese state authority over the entire
country, and a Hezbollah weapons question handled through an internal
national security strategy rather than as a precondition for anything. Both
sides retained the right to self-defense if attacked, and the threshold for
declaring the danger over was never left to "Israel" alone to decide.*

*The Washington framework inverts every one of those terms. There is no
immediate ceasefire. There is no timeline at all. The Lebanese state's
authority expands only gradually, based on Israeli judgment, through pilot
zones, after weapons are removed, not before.*

*"Israel" keeps the so-called "freedom of military action" throughout the
South whenever it perceives a threat, while Lebanon's army is confined to
specific zones it must first earn through performance. And withdrawal, such
as it is, depends entirely on "Israel's" own assessment of whether the
threat has ended.*

*The Iran-US memorandum required full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as a
condition of any comprehensive deal. Lebanon's government had that outcome
sitting in front of it, unconditional and on a clock, without having to
give up anything in return. It chose this framework instead.*
A sovereign decision, as long as 'Israel' signs off first

*What makes this hardest to defend is the gap between what Lebanese
officials are telling the public and what "Israel's" own officials are
saying about the exact same document.*

*President Aoun's office described Friday's signing as the first step
toward restoring "the sovereignty of the Lebanese state over all its
territory, without the loss of a single inch," and promised the Lebanese
people they would return to a fully liberated land, with "no more
occupation, no prisoners, no dependency, and no tutelage." Prime Minister
Salam went further, saying the framework "aims to secure an Israeli
withdrawal from all Lebanese territory" and restore full state sovereignty.*

*War minister Katz called the same agreement "a historic event and an
important political and security achievement for Israel." Asked what that
achievement actually was, he proclaimed that "Israel will not withdraw from
Lebanon," adding that it "will maintain the security zone in the south, and
will preserve the army's freedom of action."*

*Netanyahu opened his address on Saturday the same way. "I want to tell you
about a major achievement for the State of Israel," he said, before
explaining that the achievement was that "Israel" "remains, first and
foremost, in the security zone in southern Lebanon," a presence he said it
"will maintain as long as Hezbollah has not disarmed."*

*Both governments are describing the same piece of paper. One says it
secures full withdrawal and total sovereignty. The other says, in plain
language, on the record, on the same day, that nobody is withdrawing and
that staying put is the achievement. Either Lebanon's government did not
read the document it signed, or it is telling its own people something it
knows is not true.*
A recipe for civil war

*Israeli settlers received a far clearer picture of the agreement from
their national broadcasters than the Lebanese population. Channel 13 host
Rafi Droker said plainly that "the Israeli plan in Lebanon is to divide the
country and plunge it into a civil war to force the Lebanese government to
confront Hezbollah militarily," and military correspondent Alon Ben-David
confirmed it was "the Israeli goal from the beginning."*

*It is not hard to see how that would actually play out. The framework asks
the Lebanese army, a national institution built on cross-sectarian
consensus, to enter the South and dismantle Hezbollah's positions under
Israeli and US supervision.*

*Hezbollah is not going to disarm voluntarily, and the army has no mandate,
no appetite, and no realistic capacity to force the issue without turning
its own ranks, and the country around them, against each other.*

*A force meant to hold Lebanon together would become the instrument that
tears it apart, fighting a domestic enemy on behalf of the same regime
still occupying its land.*
Lebanon already tried this in 1983

*This is not the first time a Lebanese government has signed an agreement
with "Israel" under US sponsorship that promised peace and delivered
occupation.*

*In 1983, the Gemayel government signed the May 17 Agreement after the 1982
invasion, with a written, named Israeli commitment to withdraw all forces
within eight to twelve weeks. It collapsed within a year, rejected by the
political forces strong enough to block it, and canceled by the Lebanese
parliament in March 1984.*

*The 2026 framework does not even reach the bar that the May 17 Agreement
set.*

*The earlier document at least named Israeli withdrawal as an obligation,
however, conditional in practice. This one does not contain the word at
all. And unlike 1983, when Israeli troops occupied Beirut, and the Lebanese
state was negotiating, effectively with a gun to its head, today's
government has no such excuse. There is no foreign army in the capital, and
Hezbollah's military capacity is reconstituting rather than collapsing,
with its drone and anti-tank tactics already producing real losses on the
IOF. Iran is negotiating with Washington from a position of regional
strength, not weakness, and made a Lebanon ceasefire a centerpiece of those
talks. Lebanon had diplomatic leverage in 2026 that it simply did not have
in 1983, and chose not to use it.*

*It is worth letting Hezbollah have the last word here, since this is the
side the entire framework was built to silence. Hezbollah MP Hassan
Fadlallah addressed Netanyahu directly on the day the agreement was signed.
"You have reached an agreement with one who possesses nothing," he said.
"The state of hostility toward Israel will remain, and whoever shakes hands
with the enemy is complicit in its crimes."*

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir=
=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><b style=3D"background-color:transparent"><fo=
nt color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><a href=3D"https://english.alm=
ayadeen.net/news/politics/what-lebanon-actually-signed-away-in-its-deal-wit=
h--israel" target=3D"_blank">https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/w=
hat-lebanon-actually-signed-away-in-its-deal-with--israel</a></font></b></d=
iv><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><b style=3D"background-color:trans=
parent"><br></b></div><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><span style=3D"=
background-color:transparent">6/28/26</span></div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=
=3D"ltr"><div><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><br></font=
></b></div><div><h1 style=3D"line-height:1.2141em;margin-top:0px;margin-bot=
tom:0.5em;max-width:100%"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif" s=
ize=3D"4"><i>What Lebanon actually signed away in its deal with &#39;Israel=
&#39;</i></font></h1><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000"=
 face=3D"georgia, serif">What&#39;s worse than signing away sixty southern =
Lebanese villages to the Israeli occupation in exchange for nothing? Doing =
it when a far better alternative was sitting on the table. And what&#39;s w=
orse than that? Doing it in the name of &quot;sovereignty.&quot;</font></b>=
</p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia,=
 serif">Lebanese and Israeli officials are both calling Friday&#39;s trilat=
eral framework, signed in Washington under US sponsorship, &quot;historic.&=
quot; In a narrow sense, they are right. The Lebanese state has legitimized=
 the continued occupation of the South, handed &quot;Israel&quot; an outcom=
e it could never have secured through war, and thrown a lifeline to a Netan=
yahu government that badly needed one.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:=
100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Yet, calling Frida=
y&#39;s framework &quot;trilateral&quot; is somewhat misleading. The word s=
uggests three sides walked into the room, when in essence, there was one. T=
he Lebanese delegation arrived with its friends and enemies already settled=
, just as the US and Israeli delegations did.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max=
-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Lebanon&#39=
;s friends, by this framework&#39;s own logic, are Washington and the occup=
ation. Its enemies, based on the March 2 governmental decree to criminalize=
 the Resistance, are Hezbollah and, behind it, Iran.</font></b></p><h2 styl=
e=3D"max-width:100%"><font size=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, se=
rif">The Resistance is now the enemy</font></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%"=
><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The text states plainly=
 that &quot;Israel&#39;s&quot; military actions in Lebanon are &quot;solely=
 a consequence&quot; of the threat posed by &quot;non-state armed groups,&q=
uot; and that ending this threat through their disarmament will &quot;elimi=
nate any future need&quot; for Israeli military action in Lebanon.</font></=
b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgi=
a, serif">In other words, the Lebanese authority has signed onto the idea t=
hat &quot;Israel,&quot; an enemy state under Lebanon&#39;s own law, is no l=
onger the aggressor; Hezbollah is. Contrary to what a chronically online vo=
cal minority might want you to believe, the Israeli regime is not an enemy =
state in Lebanese law only; roughly 87% of the Lebanese population views &q=
uot;Israel&quot; as an enemy.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b>=
<font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The Lebanese state goes on =
to commit, in its own words, to rejecting &quot;the claims of any state or =
non-state actor to use force on its behalf without its explicit authorizati=
on,&quot; and to treating any such claim as &quot;illegal&quot; and &quot;c=
ontrary to Lebanese national interests.&quot; Resistance to occupation, som=
ething international law has never required a government&#39;s permission t=
o exercise, becomes a domestic crime the moment a government decides to cal=
l it one.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#0000=
00" face=3D"georgia, serif">This matters because of who exactly the Lebanes=
e state has just declared a threat to itself, as Hezbollah&#39;s constituen=
cy is not a fringe. Beyond being the largest political party in the country=
, recent polling puts opposition to disarmament at somewhere between 92 and=
 96 percent among Lebanon&#39;s Shia community. A government cannot describ=
e more than a third of its own population as a security threat and call tha=
t an act of sovereignty.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%"><font s=
ize=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Redeployment is not wit=
hdrawal</font></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" f=
ace=3D"georgia, serif">Search the entire text of the framework for the word=
 withdrawal, and you will not find it. &quot;Israel&quot; commits only to &=
quot;progressively redeploy,&quot; a phrase that appears nowhere in interna=
tional law and exists only for to avoid the obligations that come with ackn=
owledging an occupation.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font=
 color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Aaron David Miller, who spent tw=
enty-four years at the US State Department negotiating Arab-Israeli normali=
zation deals, pointed it out. &quot;Israel had pretty good lawyers,&quot; h=
e wrote. &quot;The word withdrawal doesn&#39;t appear, redeployment does.&q=
uot;</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" f=
ace=3D"georgia, serif">Netanyahu and his war minister have also removed any=
 ambiguity about what redeployment actually means. &quot;Israel will not wi=
thdraw from Lebanon,&quot; war minister Israel Katz said after the signing,=
 &quot;and will maintain the security zone in the south, and will preserve =
the army&#39;s freedom of action.&quot; Netanyahu described the same outcom=
e as &quot;a major achievement&quot; that the occupation &quot;will maintai=
n as long as Hezbollah has not disarmed and as long as there is a threat to=
 the State of Israel,&quot; a condition that &quot;Israel&quot; alone gets =
to assess.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000=
000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Even the two pilot zones offered as evidence o=
f Israeli concessions are not what they appear to be. One sits south of the=
 Litani River, outside the &quot;security zone&quot; that the Israeli occup=
ation already controls. The other, Netanyahu explained, is &quot;a small pa=
rt of the expanded security zone we gained over the past two weeks, which t=
he Israeli army does not need, and it says so in the clearest possible term=
s.&quot;</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#00000=
0" face=3D"georgia, serif">However, to no one&#39;s surprise, Netanyahu is =
lying. The occupation never actually established control over those areas t=
o begin with, so Netanyahu is offering up land he only ever claimed to have=
 taken.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000=
" face=3D"georgia, serif">Lebanon is being asked to celebrate the return of=
 land the Israeli military says has no value to it, or even putting territo=
ries that were never occupied under the so-called pilot zone model, while t=
he original security zone, including the area occupied specifically to alle=
gedly &quot;push back the Radwan Force,&quot; stays put regardless of what =
happens with disarmament.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%"><font =
size=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Still no ceasefire</fo=
nt></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"geor=
gia, serif">For all the talk of de-escalation, the framework does not conta=
in a ceasefire either.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font c=
olor=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">&quot;Israel&quot; is not named an=
ywhere in relation to halting its own attacks. The document conditions calm=
 not on &quot;Israel&quot; ending its aggression, withdrawing from occupied=
 territory, releasing prisoners, or allowing the displaced to return, but o=
n Hezbollah ceasing fire and withdrawing.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-wid=
th:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">What is being s=
old as a cessation of hostilities is structured, in practice, as the remova=
l of Lebanese citizens from their own land, not the removal of an occupying=
 army from it.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%"><font size=3D"2" =
color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">No court, no compensation, no ans=
wers on the prisoners</font></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=
=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Ironically, the Lebanese government, h=
eaded by the former President of the International Court of Justice, signed=
 away its own legal recourse.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b>=
<font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The text commits both sides=
 to &quot;the cessation of all hostile or adverse actions in international =
political or legal fora,&quot; language that independent lawmaker Halima El=
 Kaakour challenged directly to the president and prime minister. &quot;Doe=
s this mean not pursuing the enemy for its war crimes and crimes against hu=
manity?&quot; she asked, warning that the clause &quot;deprives Lebanon of =
the possibility of substantial financial compensation&quot; and amounts to =
enshrining impunity rather than building peace.</font></b></p><p style=3D"m=
ax-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Under thi=
s clause, Lebanon gives up any path to the ICC, any formal complaint at the=
 UN Security Council, any pursuit of accountability for the Black Wednesday=
 massacre, the pager attacks, or any of the killings carried out over the p=
ast three years.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=
=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The same passage leaves Lebanese priso=
ners and the forcibly disappeared in legal limbo. There is no commitment fr=
om &quot;Israel&quot; to disclose their fate, allow Red Cross visits, or gu=
arantee their release, the obligations international humanitarian law alrea=
dy requires.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%"><font size=3D"2" co=
lor=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The fine print</font></h2><p style=
=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Almo=
st everything written into this framework imposes a hard, specific obligati=
on on Lebanon while leaving &quot;Israel&quot; and the United States with l=
anguage soft enough to mean whatever they need it to mean later.</font></b>=
</p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia,=
 serif">Lebanon&#39;s commitment to disarm &quot;all non-state armed groups=
&quot; across the entire country is unconditional and described as irrevers=
ible. The Israeli regime&#39;s &quot;redeployment,&quot; by contrast, depen=
ds on a &quot;Security Annex&quot; that has not been published, verified by=
 criteria the US will set, with Washington cast as a neutral arbiter despit=
e being &quot;Israel&#39;s&quot; principal sponsor and arms supplier.</font=
></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"geo=
rgia, serif">Reconstruction is structured the same way. Funds are barred fr=
om reaching any &quot;individual&quot; affiliated with a non-state armed gr=
oup, not just organizations. Given how much of the South&#39;s population h=
as some connection to the Resistance, this clause functions less like count=
erterrorism financing and more like a blanket ban on rebuilding most of the=
 destroyed villages in the South.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"=
><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Even the word &quot;com=
munities&quot; appears only once in the entire text, and it refers to Israe=
li communities. South Lebanon, where the actual destruction happened, is tr=
eated as a depopulated piece of land, empty of a &quot;community&quot; in n=
eed of protection.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%"><font size=3D=
"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">April 8: The original sin</fo=
nt></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"geor=
gia, serif">To understand just how little weight Lebanon&#39;s own diplomac=
y carried in any of this, and how easily its government let itself be used =
by the same regime bombing it, it helps to go back to how these talks actua=
lly started.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#0=
00000" face=3D"georgia, serif">President Joseph Aoun signaled willingness f=
or direct talks with the occupation regime back in early March, only for &q=
uot;Israel&quot; to publicly humiliate the offer. Sources told<span>=C2=A0<=
/span><em style=3D"max-width:100%">Reuters</em><span>=C2=A0</span>that Leba=
non had &quot;nothing tangible to offer at a negotiating table.&quot; Forei=
gn Minister Gideon Saar was asked whether talks with Lebanon were planned a=
nd answered, &quot;No.&quot; For roughly four weeks, the same government th=
at insisted only it had the standing to negotiate a ceasefire could not get=
 &quot;Israel&quot; to even sit down, while the bombing continued.</font></=
b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgi=
a, serif">The turning point came on April 8, when Pakistan&#39;s prime mini=
ster announced a ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon, as part of=
 the Islamabad track Iran had insisted on. Within hours, the &#39;Israeli&#=
39; regime made clear it was not committing to any ceasefire in Lebanon spe=
cifically. Simultaneously, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declared that securin=
g a ceasefire was a &quot;sovereign matter&quot; only the Lebanese governme=
nt could negotiate, rejecting any truce that arrived through Iran.</font></=
b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgi=
a, serif">In doing so, Salam handed legitimacy to the massacre that followe=
d within hours, on what has since become known as Black Wednesday, when Isr=
aeli attacks murdered more than 350 people across Lebanon in ten minutes.</=
font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D=
"georgia, serif">The killings drew international condemnation, the kind tha=
t under any government with a spine would have hardened Beirut&#39;s positi=
on rather than softened it. Instead, the Lebanese state kept pursuing the s=
ame direct, bilateral channel, the first of its kind in decades, with the s=
ame regime that had just massacred hundreds of its people in minutes.</font=
></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"geo=
rgia, serif">Then, just as suddenly, Netanyahu reversed course entirely. He=
 framed it as responding to Lebanon&#39;s &quot;repeated requests&quot; for=
 talks, the same requests his government had spent a month publicly mocking=
. &quot;Israel&quot; was not responding to an improvement in Lebanese diplo=
macy. It was responding to Iran, which had just made an end to hostilities =
in Lebanon a non-negotiable piece of any wider de-escalation.</font></b></p=
><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, se=
rif">Netanyahu was not about to let Tehran dictate the terms of Israeli act=
ivity in Lebanon, so he made sure Beirut delivered those terms to him direc=
tly instead.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%"><font size=3D"2" co=
lor=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">What Pakistan got that Washington d=
idn&#39;t</font></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000"=
 face=3D"georgia, serif">The contrast with what Iran actually negotiated fo=
r Lebanon in the Islamabad track versus what Lebanon&#39;s own government d=
id in Washington is immense.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><=
font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The Islamabad memorandum cal=
led for an immediate ceasefire on the Lebanon front, full Israeli withdrawa=
l from the South and all Lebanese territory within two months, extension of=
 Lebanese state authority over the entire country, and a Hezbollah weapons =
question handled through an internal national security strategy rather than=
 as a precondition for anything. Both sides retained the right to self-defe=
nse if attacked, and the threshold for declaring the danger over was never =
left to &quot;Israel&quot; alone to decide.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-w=
idth:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The Washingto=
n framework inverts every one of those terms. There is no immediate ceasefi=
re. There is no timeline at all. The Lebanese state&#39;s authority expands=
 only gradually, based on Israeli judgment, through pilot zones, after weap=
ons are removed, not before.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><=
font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">&quot;Israel&quot; keeps the=
 so-called &quot;freedom of military action&quot; throughout the South when=
ever it perceives a threat, while Lebanon&#39;s army is confined to specifi=
c zones it must first earn through performance. And withdrawal, such as it =
is, depends entirely on &quot;Israel&#39;s&quot; own assessment of whether =
the threat has ended.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font co=
lor=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The Iran-US memorandum required ful=
l Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as a condition of any comprehensive deal.=
 Lebanon&#39;s government had that outcome sitting in front of it, uncondit=
ional and on a clock, without having to give up anything in return. It chos=
e this framework instead.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%"><font =
size=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">A sovereign decision, =
as long as &#39;Israel&#39; signs off first</font></h2><p style=3D"max-widt=
h:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">What makes this =
hardest to defend is the gap between what Lebanese officials are telling th=
e public and what &quot;Israel&#39;s&quot; own officials are saying about t=
he exact same document.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font =
color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">President Aoun&#39;s office descr=
ibed Friday&#39;s signing as the first step toward restoring &quot;the sove=
reignty of the Lebanese state over all its territory, without the loss of a=
 single inch,&quot; and promised the Lebanese people they would return to a=
 fully liberated land, with &quot;no more occupation, no prisoners, no depe=
ndency, and no tutelage.&quot; Prime Minister Salam went further, saying th=
e framework &quot;aims to secure an Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese te=
rritory&quot; and restore full state sovereignty.</font></b></p><p style=3D=
"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">War min=
ister Katz called the same agreement &quot;a historic event and an importan=
t political and security achievement for Israel.&quot; Asked what that achi=
evement actually was, he proclaimed that &quot;Israel will not withdraw fro=
m Lebanon,&quot; adding that it &quot;will maintain the security zone in th=
e south, and will preserve the army&#39;s freedom of action.&quot;</font></=
b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgi=
a, serif">Netanyahu opened his address on Saturday the same way. &quot;I wa=
nt to tell you about a major achievement for the State of Israel,&quot; he =
said, before explaining that the achievement was that &quot;Israel&quot; &q=
uot;remains, first and foremost, in the security zone in southern Lebanon,&=
quot; a presence he said it &quot;will maintain as long as Hezbollah has no=
t disarmed.&quot;</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=
=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Both governments are describing the sa=
me piece of paper. One says it secures full withdrawal and total sovereignt=
y. The other says, in plain language, on the record, on the same day, that =
nobody is withdrawing and that staying put is the achievement. Either Leban=
on&#39;s government did not read the document it signed, or it is telling i=
ts own people something it knows is not true.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"ma=
x-width:100%"><font size=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">A =
recipe for civil war</font></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=
=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Israeli settlers received a far cleare=
r picture of the agreement from their national broadcasters than the Lebane=
se population.<span>=C2=A0</span><em style=3D"max-width:100%">Channel 13</e=
m><span>=C2=A0</span>host Rafi Droker said plainly that &quot;the Israeli p=
lan in Lebanon is to divide the country and plunge it into a civil war to f=
orce the Lebanese government to confront Hezbollah militarily,&quot; and mi=
litary correspondent Alon Ben-David confirmed it was &quot;the Israeli goal=
 from the beginning.&quot;</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><fo=
nt color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">It is not hard to see how that=
 would actually play out. The framework asks the Lebanese army, a national =
institution built on cross-sectarian consensus, to enter the South and dism=
antle Hezbollah&#39;s positions under Israeli and US supervision.</font></b=
></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia=
, serif">Hezbollah is not going to disarm voluntarily, and the army has no =
mandate, no appetite, and no realistic capacity to force the issue without =
turning its own ranks, and the country around them, against each other.</fo=
nt></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"g=
eorgia, serif">A force meant to hold Lebanon together would become the inst=
rument that tears it apart, fighting a domestic enemy on behalf of the same=
 regime still occupying its land.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%=
"><font size=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Lebanon alread=
y tried this in 1983</font></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=
=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">This is not the first time a Lebanese =
government has signed an agreement with &quot;Israel&quot; under US sponsor=
ship that promised peace and delivered occupation.</font></b></p><p style=
=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">In 1=
983, the Gemayel government signed the May 17 Agreement after the 1982 inva=
sion, with a written, named Israeli commitment to withdraw all forces withi=
n eight to twelve weeks. It collapsed within a year, rejected by the politi=
cal forces strong enough to block it, and canceled by the Lebanese parliame=
nt in March 1984.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=
=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The 2026 framework does not even reach=
 the bar that the May 17 Agreement set.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width=
:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The earlier docum=
ent at least named Israeli withdrawal as an obligation, however, conditiona=
l in practice. This one does not contain the word at all. And unlike 1983, =
when Israeli troops occupied Beirut, and the Lebanese state was negotiating=
, effectively with a gun to its head, today&#39;s government has no such ex=
cuse. There is no foreign army in the capital, and Hezbollah&#39;s military=
 capacity is reconstituting rather than collapsing, with its drone and anti=
-tank tactics already producing real losses on the IOF. Iran is negotiating=
 with Washington from a position of regional strength, not weakness, and ma=
de a Lebanon ceasefire a centerpiece of those talks. Lebanon had diplomatic=
 leverage in 2026 that it simply did not have in 1983, and chose not to use=
 it.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" f=
ace=3D"georgia, serif">It is worth letting Hezbollah have the last word her=
e, since this is the side the entire framework was built to silence. Hezbol=
lah MP Hassan Fadlallah addressed Netanyahu directly on the day the agreeme=
nt was signed. &quot;You have reached an agreement with one who possesses n=
othing,&quot; he said. &quot;The state of hostility toward Israel will rema=
in, and whoever shakes hands with the enemy is complicit in its crimes.&quo=
t;</font></b></p></div></div>
</div>
</div></div>

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Subject: [Salon] Sayyed Khamenei orders war crimes legal cases against
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https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/sayyed-khamenei-orders-war-crimes-legal-cases-against-us--is

6/28/26

*Sayyed Khamenei orders war crimes legal cases against US-'Israel'*

*Iranian Leader Sayyed Mojtaba Khamenei has directed Iran's Judiciary to
pursue legal accountability in domestic and international courts for war
crimes committed
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/legal-experts-warn-us-led-war-on-iran--likely--violates-int>
against
the Iranian nation, including the killing of children in Minab and Lamerd,
attacks on medical and service centers, and the murder of Martyred Leader
Sayyed Ali Khamenei, and others during the June 2025 and March 2026 wars.*

*"The perpetrators of these crimes must be seized and made to answer for
them," Sayyed Khamenei said, describing each of these episodes as forming
"a case file among hundreds, indeed thousands, of important legal matters
that must be pursued with seriousness in domestic and international
courts."*

*The Leader's statement was issued on the occasion of the National Week of
the Judiciary and the anniversary of the martyrdom of Ayatollah Beheshti
and his companions.*

*Sayyed Khamenei
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/sayyed-mojtaba-khamenei---resistance-front-is-one-unified-en>
opened
by extending condolences to the Iranian nation and the Islamic Ummah on the
martyrdom of Imam Hussein, describing the Husseini uprising as "history's
towering peak in the confrontation between truth and falsehood, justice and
oppression."*

*He linked the occasion to the legacy of Ayatollah Beheshti, the senior
judicial and revolutionary figure martyred along with 72 others, saying the
anniversary "recalls the eminent figure of the Revolution who, while
standing at the head of the Judiciary, pursued relentless efforts in this
direction" until his martyrdom became, in Sayyed Khamenei's words, "a
confirmation of the Husseini character of this system and its architects."*
The case for prosecution

*Sayyed Khamenei stressed that the pursuit of rights violated by "the
crimes of international criminals, the arrogant powers, and global
aggressors" is among the most pressing legal and judicial matters facing
the Iranian nation at this juncture.*

*He pointed to a string of grievances behind the push for prosecution: the
killing of children in "unprecedented war crimes" in Minab
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/un-calls-for-probe-into-israeli-minab-school-massacre-in-ira>
and
Lamerd, attacks on medical and service centers, and the deaths of infants
and elderly civilians, alongside the broader physical, psychological,
material, and spiritual harm done to Iranians at home and abroad. *

*Sayyed Khamenei directed that this pursuit build on a previous instruction
from Sayyed Ali Khamenei, given last year, regarding crimes committed in
the 12-Day War
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-aggression-on-iran-killed-935--including-38-children>.
He instructed that the same scrutiny now be extended to the most recent war
and "pursued continuously until a ruling is reached and its execution
entrusted to competent parties," adding that doing so would "help prevent
the recurrence of such crimes."*

*The Iranian Leader pointed to statements by US and Israeli officials as
material that strengthens the case for prosecution. "The confessions and
even the shameless boasting of certain American and Zionist enemy leaders
over these crimes amount to an admission of guilt," he said, adding that
such statements "laid appropriate groundwork for restoring the nation's
violated rights."*
Judiciary's wider mandate

*Beyond the war crimes file
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/un-probe-says-us-israeli-war-on-iran-violates-un-charter>,
Sayyed Khamenei set out a broader standard for the Judiciary's role,
underscoring its function as safeguarding "the rights of the people,"
restoring "public rights and legitimate freedoms," combating corruption,
administering justice, and overseeing the enforcement of law.*

*He asserted that the public now expects to see this translated from policy
documents into practice, "from the chambers of judicial complexes and
courtroom sessions to public spaces and the social sphere."*

*The Leader set a high bar for what that should look like in practice,
saying the Judiciary must reach a point where "every wronged person regards
it as their refuge," where "those who hold any form of power do not dare
transgress the rights of others," and where "the practice of seeking favors
and recommendations is shut off entirely," such that "having connections
within any part of it carries no advantage whatsoever."*
Public, social rights

*Sayyed Khamenei extended the scope of justice beyond individual legal
cases to collective rights, naming "the right to economic security and fair
access to opportunity," "just share of natural resources," "a healthy
environment," "legitimate freedoms," and "effective governance" as core to
advancing justice for the nation.*

*He closed by describing the path to justice as a difficult one, made
smoother through "sincerity, trust in God," "courage and decisiveness," and
"the proper use of new technologies and digitalization," expressing
confidence that these goals would be achieved "under the grace of the
awaited Imam of Justice."*

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir=
=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><a href=3D"https://english.almayadeen.net/new=
s/politics/sayyed-khamenei-orders-war-crimes-legal-cases-against-us--is" ta=
rget=3D"_blank" style=3D"font-family:georgia,serif;background-color:transpa=
rent">https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/sayyed-khamenei-orders-w=
ar-crimes-legal-cases-against-us--is</a></div><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gma=
il_attr"><br></div><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr">6/28/26</div><div =
dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div style=3D"font-family:georgia,serif;font-s=
ize:small"><br></div><div><h1 style=3D"line-height:1.2141em;margin-top:0px;=
margin-bottom:0.5em;max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georg=
ia, serif" size=3D"4"><i>Sayyed Khamenei orders war crimes legal cases agai=
nst US-&#39;Israel&#39;</i></font></h1><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb=
(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>Iranian Leader Sayyed Mojtaba =
Khamenei has directed Iran&#39;s Judiciary to pursue legal accountability i=
n domestic and international courts for<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https:=
//english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/legal-experts-warn-us-led-war-on-ira=
n--likely--violates-int" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210=
);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">war crimes committed</a><span>=C2=A0</s=
pan>against the Iranian nation, including the killing of children in Minab =
and Lamerd, attacks on medical and service centers, and the murder of Marty=
red Leader Sayyed Ali Khamenei, and others during the June 2025 and March 2=
026 wars.</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><fo=
nt face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>&quot;The perpetrators of these crimes must b=
e seized and made to answer for them,&quot; Sayyed Khamenei said, describin=
g each of these episodes as forming &quot;a case file among hundreds, indee=
d thousands, of important legal matters that must be pursued with seriousne=
ss in domestic and international courts.&quot;</b></font></p><p style=3D"ma=
x-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>The Lead=
er&#39;s statement was issued on the occasion of the National Week of the J=
udiciary and the anniversary of the martyrdom of Ayatollah Beheshti and his=
 companions.</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)">=
<font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b><a href=3D"https://english.almayadeen.net/=
news/politics/sayyed-mojtaba-khamenei---resistance-front-is-one-unified-en"=
 style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=
=3D"_blank">Sayyed Khamenei</a><span>=C2=A0</span>opened by extending condo=
lences to the Iranian nation and the Islamic Ummah on the martyrdom of Imam=
 Hussein, describing the Husseini uprising as &quot;history&#39;s towering =
peak in the confrontation between truth and falsehood, justice and oppressi=
on.&quot;</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><fo=
nt face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>He linked the occasion to the legacy of Ayato=
llah Beheshti, the senior judicial and revolutionary figure martyred along =
with 72 others, saying the anniversary &quot;recalls the eminent figure of =
the Revolution who, while standing at the head of the Judiciary, pursued re=
lentless efforts in this direction&quot; until his martyrdom became, in Say=
yed Khamenei&#39;s words, &quot;a confirmation of the Husseini character of=
 this system and its architects.&quot;</b></font></p><h2 style=3D"max-width=
:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif" size=3D"2">The cas=
e for prosecution</font></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)=
"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>Sayyed Khamenei stressed that the pursui=
t of rights violated by &quot;the crimes of international criminals, the ar=
rogant powers, and global aggressors&quot; is among the most pressing legal=
 and judicial matters facing the Iranian nation at this juncture.</b></font=
></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia,=
 serif"><b>He pointed to a string of grievances behind the push for prosecu=
tion: the killing of children in &quot;unprecedented war crimes&quot;<span>=
=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/un-cal=
ls-for-probe-into-israeli-minab-school-massacre-in-ira" style=3D"text-decor=
ation:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">in Minab=
</a><span>=C2=A0</span>and Lamerd, attacks on medical and service centers, =
and the deaths of infants and elderly civilians, alongside the broader phys=
ical, psychological, material, and spiritual harm done to Iranians at home =
and abroad.=C2=A0</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,=
27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>Sayyed Khamenei directed that this pu=
rsuit build on a previous instruction from Sayyed Ali Khamenei, given last =
year, regarding crimes committed in the<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https:=
//english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-aggression-on-iran-killed-93=
5--including-38-children" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,21=
0);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">12-Day War</a>. He instructed that the=
 same scrutiny now be extended to the most recent war and &quot;pursued con=
tinuously until a ruling is reached and its execution entrusted to competen=
t parties,&quot; adding that doing so would &quot;help prevent the recurren=
ce of such crimes.&quot;</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb=
(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>The Iranian Leader pointed to =
statements by US and Israeli officials as material that strengthens the cas=
e for prosecution. &quot;The confessions and even the shameless boasting of=
 certain American and Zionist enemy leaders over these crimes amount to an =
admission of guilt,&quot; he said, adding that such statements &quot;laid a=
ppropriate groundwork for restoring the nation&#39;s violated rights.&quot;=
</b></font></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=
=3D"georgia, serif" size=3D"2">Judiciary&#39;s wider mandate</font></h2><p =
style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif">=
<b>Beyond the<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https://english.almayadeen.net/n=
ews/politics/un-probe-says-us-israeli-war-on-iran-violates-un-charter" styl=
e=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_=
blank">war crimes file</a>, Sayyed Khamenei set out a broader standard for =
the Judiciary&#39;s role, underscoring its function as safeguarding &quot;t=
he rights of the people,&quot; restoring &quot;public rights and legitimate=
 freedoms,&quot; combating corruption, administering justice, and overseein=
g the enforcement of law.</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rg=
b(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>He asserted that the public n=
ow expects to see this translated from policy documents into practice, &quo=
t;from the chambers of judicial complexes and courtroom sessions to public =
spaces and the social sphere.&quot;</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100=
%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>The Leader set a hi=
gh bar for what that should look like in practice, saying the Judiciary mus=
t reach a point where &quot;every wronged person regards it as their refuge=
,&quot; where &quot;those who hold any form of power do not dare transgress=
 the rights of others,&quot; and where &quot;the practice of seeking favors=
 and recommendations is shut off entirely,&quot; such that &quot;having con=
nections within any part of it carries no advantage whatsoever.&quot;</b></=
font></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"geo=
rgia, serif" size=3D"2">Public, social rights</font></h2><p style=3D"max-wi=
dth:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>Sayyed Khame=
nei extended the scope of justice beyond individual legal cases to collecti=
ve rights, naming &quot;the right to economic security and fair access to o=
pportunity,&quot; &quot;just share of natural resources,&quot; &quot;a heal=
thy environment,&quot; &quot;legitimate freedoms,&quot; and &quot;effective=
 governance&quot; as core to advancing justice for the nation.</b></font></=
p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, se=
rif"><b>He closed by describing the path to justice as a difficult one, mad=
e smoother through &quot;sincerity, trust in God,&quot; &quot;courage and d=
ecisiveness,&quot; and &quot;the proper use of new technologies and digital=
ization,&quot; expressing confidence that these goals would be achieved &qu=
ot;under the grace of the awaited Imam of Justice.&quot;</b></font></p></di=
v></div>
</div>
</div></div>

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Subject: [Salon] October 7, which enabled a genocide in Gaza,
 loosened all restraints in the West Bank as well
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*https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2026-06-28/ty-article-opinion/.premium/no-=
innocents-in-gaza-now-the-idf-is-applying-that-policy-in-the-west-bank/0000=
019f-0a33-dfe2-a79f-6b3b14a70000
<https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2026-06-28/ty-article-opinion/.premium/no-=
innocents-in-gaza-now-the-idf-is-applying-that-policy-in-the-west-bank/0000=
019f-0a33-dfe2-a79f-6b3b14a70000>*

*October 7, which enabled a genocide in Gaza, loosened all restraints in
the West Bank as well.* *Now the verdict that there are no innocent
civilians has been applied to the Palestinians of the West Bank, too*
*Gideon Levy =E2=80=A2 June 28 2026 *
[image: Palestinians collect belongings from their evacuated homes in the
Tulkarem refugee camp in the West Bank as Israeli soldiers stand nearby,
June.]
*Palestinians collect belongings from their evacuated homes in the Tulkarem
refugee camp in the West Bank as Israeli soldiers stand nearby,
June. Credit: Majdi Mohammed,AP *

*As in Israel, nothing is the same as it used to be before October 7
between Jenin and Hebron. It's an occupation with new rules, crueller than
ever. Not a single shot was fired by Palestinians in the West Bank on
October 7, and not on most of the many days that followed, yet they are
being punished by Israel as they haven't been since the Nakba.*

*Since October 7, Israel has adopted a policy of relentless and increasing
harassment, despite the long period that has elapsed since then. The West
Bank's punishment is shaping up as a life term in prison. Its inhabitants
have behaved perfectly as far as Israel is concerned, submissive, bleeding
and leaderless. They haven't expressed any significant opposition to what
is being done to their brethren in Gaza, but this hasn't helped them. Their
sin was and remains that they are Palestinians. With or without terrorism,
they are always at fault.*

--00000000000080ee9506554fd70a
Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir=
=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><b style=3D"background-color:transparent"><fo=
nt face=3D"georgia, serif"><a href=3D"https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2026-=
06-28/ty-article-opinion/.premium/no-innocents-in-gaza-now-the-idf-is-apply=
ing-that-policy-in-the-west-bank/0000019f-0a33-dfe2-a79f-6b3b14a70000" targ=
et=3D"_blank">https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2026-06-28/ty-article-opinion=
/.premium/no-innocents-in-gaza-now-the-idf-is-applying-that-policy-in-the-w=
est-bank/0000019f-0a33-dfe2-a79f-6b3b14a70000</a></font></b></div><div dir=
=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr=
"><div><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><br></font></b></div><div><h1 style=
=3D"line-height:1.2141em;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0.5em;max-width:100%;=
color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif" size=3D"4"><i>October 7,=
 which enabled a genocide in Gaza, loosened all restraints in the West Bank=
 as well.</i></font><font size=3D"2" face=3D"georgia, serif"> </font><font =
face=3D"georgia, serif" size=3D"4"><i>Now the verdict that there are no inn=
ocent civilians has been applied to the Palestinians of the West Bank, too<=
/i></font></h1><div style=3D"margin-bottom:1.45em;max-width:100%;color:rgb(=
27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><a rel=3D"author" style=3D"marg=
in:0px;max-width:100%;display:inline">Gideon Levy</a>=C2=A0=E2=80=A2 June 2=
8 2026=C2=A0</font></b></div><div style=3D"max-width:100%"><div style=3D"ma=
x-width:100%"><img title=3D"Palestinians collect belongings from their evac=
uated homes in the Tulkarem refugee camp in the West Bank as Israeli soldie=
rs stand nearby, June. Credit: Majdi Mohammed,AP" alt=3D"Palestinians colle=
ct belongings from their evacuated homes in the Tulkarem refugee camp in th=
e West Bank as Israeli soldiers stand nearby, June." width=3D"412" height=
=3D"239" src=3D"https://img.haarets.co.il/bs/0000019f-0aad-d0b8-a1bf-faaf34=
270000/05/81/262ea06d4d3da3123677f4238699/407032.jpg?&amp;width=3D420&amp;h=
eight=3D244&amp;cmsprod" style=3D"margin:0.5em 0px 0.5em auto;display:block=
"></div></div><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><span style=3D"max-width:100=
%;margin-top:0.25em;margin-bottom:0.25em">Palestinians collect belongings f=
rom their evacuated homes in the Tulkarem refugee camp in the West Bank as =
Israeli soldiers stand nearby, June.</span><span>=C2=A0</span><span style=
=3D"max-width:100%;margin-top:0.25em;margin-bottom:0.25em">Credit: Majdi Mo=
hammed,AP<span>=C2=A0</span></span></font></b><p style=3D"max-width:100%;co=
lor:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">As in Israel, nothing i=
s the same as it used to be before October 7 between Jenin and Hebron. It&#=
39;s an occupation with new rules, crueller than ever. Not a single shot wa=
s fired by Palestinians in the West Bank on October 7, and not on most of t=
he many days that followed, yet they are being punished by Israel as they h=
aven&#39;t been since the Nakba.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;c=
olor:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">Since October 7, Israe=
l has adopted a policy of<span>=C2=A0</span><a style=3D"color:rgb(65,110,21=
0);max-width:100%">relentless and increasing harassment</a>, despite the lo=
ng period that has elapsed since then. The West Bank&#39;s punishment is sh=
aping up as a life term in prison. Its inhabitants have behaved perfectly a=
s far as Israel is concerned, submissive, bleeding and leaderless. They hav=
en&#39;t expressed any significant opposition to what is being done to thei=
r brethren in Gaza, but this hasn&#39;t helped them. Their sin was and rema=
ins that they are Palestinians. With or without terrorism, they are always =
at fault.</font></b></p></div></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></div>

--00000000000080ee9506554fd70a--

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Subject: [Salon] The 2026 BRICS+ National Security Advisers Summit in New
 Delhi strengthens multipolar security
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*https://strategic-culture.su/news/2026/06/26/the-2026-brics-national-secur=
ity-advisers-summit-in-new-delhi-strengthens-multipolar-security/
<https://strategic-culture.su/news/2026/06/26/the-2026-brics-national-secur=
ity-advisers-summit-in-new-delhi-strengthens-multipolar-security/>*

6/26/26

*[*Who knows if, between now and the September summit=E2=80=94during the BR=
ICS+
plenary session=E2=80=94we might be in for some pleasant surprises in the f=
orm of
new security agreements.]

















































*The 2026 BRICS+ National Security Advisers Summit in New Delhi strengthens
multipolar securityRenewed cooperationThe meeting of the National Security
Advisers of the BRICS countries, which opened in New Delhi under India=E2=
=80=99s
chairmanship of the group, represents much more than a simple technical
gathering focused on emerging threats. Behind the official
topics=E2=80=94cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, terrorism, digital
infrastructure security, and unconventional threats=E2=80=94a much broader
geopolitical dynamic is emerging: the gradual transformation of the BRICS
from an economic platform into a full-fledged strategic forum for the
multipolar world.The meeting chaired by Ajit Doval comes at a particularly
delicate juncture in the international system. The recent crisis in the
Middle East, the difficult normalization process between Washington and
Tehran, the strategic rivalry between the United States and China, and the
transformations of the global economic order have heightened the importance
of bodies capable of coordinating positions among the major non-Western
powers.It is therefore not surprising that the presence of Chinese Foreign
Minister Wang Yi has attracted particular attention. His visit to New Delhi
is, in fact, another step in the gradual thaw in relations between India
and China, which=E2=80=94after years of tensions along the Himalayan border=
=E2=80=94now
appears to be entering a more structured phase.To understand the
significance of the current rapprochement, it is important to recall that
relations between the two major Asian powers went through one of the most
difficult phases in their recent history following the 2020 clashes in the
Ladakh region.For several years, political dialogue remained limited, and
numerous bilateral mechanisms were suspended. Yet over the past two years,
there has been a gradual reversal of this trend. Meetings between top
political leaders, military negotiations along the Line of Actual Control,
and a growing awareness of the need to prevent destabilization in Asia have
helped reopen channels of communication that had appeared to be
compromised.In talks held on the sidelines of the BRICS summit, Doval and
Wang Yi acknowledged the progress made toward normalizing bilateral
relations. According to diplomatic sources, both sides emphasized the
importance of strengthening dialogue and preventing border disputes from
affecting the entire strategic relationship.The most significant
development is not so much the resumption of diplomatic contacts as the
fact that India and China appear to share a growing convergence of views
regarding the transformations of the international order.While maintaining
deep strategic differences, both powers are closely observing the gradual
weakening of Western unilateralism and the need to build international
institutions that are more representative of the political and economic
weight of the Global South, which is the political =E2=80=9Cheart=E2=80=9D =
of the
partnership.Security in a multipolar contextIndia=E2=80=99s 2026 presidency=
 is
taking place under the motto =E2=80=9CBuilding for Resilience, Innovation,
Cooperation, and Sustainability,=E2=80=9D a slogan that reflects New Delhi=
=E2=80=99s
ambition to further expand the group=E2=80=99s scope of action.BRICS is no =
longer
merely a mechanism for economic cooperation. The expansion to eleven
members has profoundly altered the nature of the organization. Alongside
the original major emerging economies now sit key regional players such as
Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and
Indonesia. This expansion has inevitably introduced new demands for
political and security coordination.The issues addressed in New Delhi bear
witness to this evolution. Cyberattacks, digital vulnerabilities,
international terrorism, the use of artificial intelligence in the
military, and the protection of critical infrastructure are challenges that
no country can tackle in isolation. And this is where the BRICS are
gradually assuming the role of a testing ground for an alternative model of
security governance to that dominated by Western structures. It is not yet,
in fact, a military alliance and will likely not become one in the near
future, but the growing institutionalization of strategic dialogues
indicates a willingness to develop forms of coordination capable of
influencing the global balance of power.One of the most significant aspects
of the New Delhi meeting concerns the stance taken toward Iran, which is
perhaps the most contentious issue the entire partnership has had to
address during this first half of the year.During the summit, Wang Yi met
with the deputy secretary of Iran=E2=80=99s Supreme National Security Counc=
il,
Ghadir Nezamipour, reaffirming China=E2=80=99s support for the Islamic Repu=
blic=E2=80=99s
sovereignty, security, and national dignity. Particularly significant was
the reception given to the recent memorandum of understanding between
Tehran and Washington, which Beijing views as a potential tool for
consolidating the regional ceasefire and creating favorable conditions for
greater stability in the Middle East.China=E2=80=99s position reveals an el=
ement
often overlooked in Western analyses: Beijing does not simply aim to
counter U.S. influence, but is increasingly seeking to present itself as a
guarantor of regional stability and a diplomatic facilitator. This approach
had already emerged in the 2023 reconciliation between Iran and Saudi
Arabia and now appears to be finding further confirmation. The Chinese are
determined to preserve BRICS+ as an architecture of stability and
broad-mindedness, certainly not to turn the partnership into a global
=E2=80=9Cproblem.=E2=80=9DIndia, too, has shown a pragmatic attitude, preci=
sely in this
direction. Doval expressed cautious optimism regarding the agreement
between the United States and Iran, emphasizing how the stabilization of
the Middle East could promote energy security and the continuity of global
supply chains. For New Delhi, the Middle East is a vital region both from
an energy perspective and due to the presence of a large Indian diaspora.
Consequently, any reduction in regional tensions is considered a direct
strategic interest.Sino-Indian convergence and the future of the Global
SouthPerhaps the most interesting element emerging from the summit is the
growing awareness, in both Beijing and New Delhi, that bilateral
competition can no longer be the sole framework for interpreting their
relations.India and China will certainly continue to compete for economic,
technological, and geopolitical influence. Unresolved territorial disputes,
strategic differences in the Indian Ocean, and differing relationships with
the United States persist, but both recognize that the new international
context also calls for forms of cooperation.The expansion of the BRICS, the
rise of the Global South, the crisis of post-World War II institutions, and
the growing fragmentation of the global economy are creating areas of
convergence that would have been difficult to imagine just a few years ago.
The normalization of relations between New Delhi and Beijing does not imply
the formation of a strategic alliance. Rather, it signals the emergence of
a logic of competitive coexistence, in which rivalry is managed through
permanent diplomatic mechanisms rather than through continuous
escalation.On the one hand, the summit confirms the gradual evolution of
the BRICS toward an increasingly sophisticated political and strategic
platform; on the other, it highlights the slow but steady rapprochement
between India and China, two powers that understand how the stability of
Eurasia and the Global South requires a minimum level of mutual
cooperation. The Global South, we should recall, is the primary arena for
strategic investment by the world=E2=80=99s most important players. The shi=
ft from
economic cooperation to security integration is a step made essential by
the instability of global routes and the aggressiveness of Western
countries.The general impression is that the New Delhi summit offers a
preview of what the international system might become in the coming years:
an order=E2=80=94increasingly multipolar=E2=80=94characterized not by the a=
bsence of
conflicts, but by the presence of new mechanisms for coordination among the
major powers, kept in balance by shared security networks=E2=80=94true netw=
orks of
exchange and mutual balance=E2=80=94where the domination of a =E2=80=9Cstro=
nger=E2=80=9D power over
a =E2=80=9Cweaker=E2=80=9D one is made impossible.Who knows if, between now=
 and the
September summit=E2=80=94during the BRICS+ plenary session=E2=80=94we might=
 be in for some
pleasant surprises in the form of new security agreements.*

--00000000000045b56506554fdfeb
Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir=
=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><b style=3D"background-color:transparent"><a =
href=3D"https://strategic-culture.su/news/2026/06/26/the-2026-brics-nationa=
l-security-advisers-summit-in-new-delhi-strengthens-multipolar-security/" t=
arget=3D"_blank">https://strategic-culture.su/news/2026/06/26/the-2026-bric=
s-national-security-advisers-summit-in-new-delhi-strengthens-multipolar-sec=
urity/</a></b></div><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><br></div><div di=
r=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr">6/26/26</div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"lt=
r"><b><br><span class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:georgia,serif;=
font-size:small">[</span></b>Who knows if, between now and the September su=
mmit=E2=80=94during the BRICS+ plenary session=E2=80=94we might be in for s=
ome pleasant surprises in the form of new security agreements.<span class=
=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:georgia,serif;font-size:small">]</s=
pan><b><br></b></div><div dir=3D"ltr"><b><br></b></div><div dir=3D"ltr"><b>=
The 2026 BRICS+ National Security Advisers Summit in New Delhi strengthens =
multipolar security<br><br>Renewed cooperation<br><br>The meeting of the Na=
tional Security Advisers of the BRICS countries, which opened in New Delhi =
under India=E2=80=99s chairmanship of the group, represents much more than =
a simple technical gathering focused on emerging threats. Behind the offici=
al topics=E2=80=94cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, terrorism, digita=
l infrastructure security, and unconventional threats=E2=80=94a much broade=
r geopolitical dynamic is emerging: the gradual transformation of the BRICS=
 from an economic platform into a full-fledged strategic forum for the mult=
ipolar world.<br><br>The meeting chaired by Ajit Doval comes at a particula=
rly delicate juncture in the international system. The recent crisis in the=
 Middle East, the difficult normalization process between Washington and Te=
hran, the strategic rivalry between the United States and China, and the tr=
ansformations of the global economic order have heightened the importance o=
f bodies capable of coordinating positions among the major non-Western powe=
rs.<br><br>It is therefore not surprising that the presence of Chinese Fore=
ign Minister Wang Yi has attracted particular attention. His visit to New D=
elhi is, in fact, another step in the gradual thaw in relations between Ind=
ia and China, which=E2=80=94after years of tensions along the Himalayan bor=
der=E2=80=94now appears to be entering a more structured phase.<br><br>To u=
nderstand the significance of the current rapprochement, it is important to=
 recall that relations between the two major Asian powers went through one =
of the most difficult phases in their recent history following the 2020 cla=
shes in the Ladakh region.<br><br>For several years, political dialogue rem=
ained limited, and numerous bilateral mechanisms were suspended. Yet over t=
he past two years, there has been a gradual reversal of this trend. Meeting=
s between top political leaders, military negotiations along the Line of Ac=
tual Control, and a growing awareness of the need to prevent destabilizatio=
n in Asia have helped reopen channels of communication that had appeared to=
 be compromised.<br><br>In talks held on the sidelines of the BRICS summit,=
 Doval and Wang Yi acknowledged the progress made toward normalizing bilate=
ral relations. According to diplomatic sources, both sides emphasized the i=
mportance of strengthening dialogue and preventing border disputes from aff=
ecting the entire strategic relationship.<br><br>The most significant devel=
opment is not so much the resumption of diplomatic contacts as the fact tha=
t India and China appear to share a growing convergence of views regarding =
the transformations of the international order.<br><br>While maintaining de=
ep strategic differences, both powers are closely observing the gradual wea=
kening of Western unilateralism and the need to build international institu=
tions that are more representative of the political and economic weight of =
the Global South, which is the political =E2=80=9Cheart=E2=80=9D of the par=
tnership.<br><br>Security in a multipolar context<br><br>India=E2=80=99s 20=
26 presidency is taking place under the motto =E2=80=9CBuilding for Resilie=
nce, Innovation, Cooperation, and Sustainability,=E2=80=9D a slogan that re=
flects New Delhi=E2=80=99s ambition to further expand the group=E2=80=99s s=
cope of action.<br><br>BRICS is no longer merely a mechanism for economic c=
ooperation. The expansion to eleven members has profoundly altered the natu=
re of the organization. Alongside the original major emerging economies now=
 sit key regional players such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emira=
tes, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. This expansion has inevitably introduc=
ed new demands for political and security coordination.<br><br>The issues a=
ddressed in New Delhi bear witness to this evolution. Cyberattacks, digital=
 vulnerabilities, international terrorism, the use of artificial intelligen=
ce in the military, and the protection of critical infrastructure are chall=
enges that no country can tackle in isolation. And this is where the BRICS =
are gradually assuming the role of a testing ground for an alternative mode=
l of security governance to that dominated by Western structures. It is not=
 yet, in fact, a military alliance and will likely not become one in the ne=
ar future, but the growing institutionalization of strategic dialogues indi=
cates a willingness to develop forms of coordination capable of influencing=
 the global balance of power.<br><br>One of the most significant aspects of=
 the New Delhi meeting concerns the stance taken toward Iran, which is perh=
aps the most contentious issue the entire partnership has had to address du=
ring this first half of the year.<br><br>During the summit, Wang Yi met wit=
h the deputy secretary of Iran=E2=80=99s Supreme National Security Council,=
 Ghadir Nezamipour, reaffirming China=E2=80=99s support for the Islamic Rep=
ublic=E2=80=99s sovereignty, security, and national dignity. Particularly s=
ignificant was the reception given to the recent memorandum of understandin=
g between Tehran and Washington, which Beijing views as a potential tool fo=
r consolidating the regional ceasefire and creating favorable conditions fo=
r greater stability in the Middle East.<br><br>China=E2=80=99s position rev=
eals an element often overlooked in Western analyses: Beijing does not simp=
ly aim to counter U.S. influence, but is increasingly seeking to present it=
self as a guarantor of regional stability and a diplomatic facilitator. Thi=
s approach had already emerged in the 2023 reconciliation between Iran and =
Saudi Arabia and now appears to be finding further confirmation. The Chines=
e are determined to preserve BRICS+ as an architecture of stability and bro=
ad-mindedness, certainly not to turn the partnership into a global =E2=80=
=9Cproblem.=E2=80=9D<br><br>India, too, has shown a pragmatic attitude, pre=
cisely in this direction. Doval expressed cautious optimism regarding the a=
greement between the United States and Iran, emphasizing how the stabilizat=
ion of the Middle East could promote energy security and the continuity of =
global supply chains. For New Delhi, the Middle East is a vital region both=
 from an energy perspective and due to the presence of a large Indian diasp=
ora. Consequently, any reduction in regional tensions is considered a direc=
t strategic interest.<br><br>Sino-Indian convergence and the future of the =
Global South<br><br>Perhaps the most interesting element emerging from the =
summit is the growing awareness, in both Beijing and New Delhi, that bilate=
ral competition can no longer be the sole framework for interpreting their =
relations.<br><br>India and China will certainly continue to compete for ec=
onomic, technological, and geopolitical influence. Unresolved territorial d=
isputes, strategic differences in the Indian Ocean, and differing relations=
hips with the United States persist, but both recognize that the new intern=
ational context also calls for forms of cooperation.<br><br>The expansion o=
f the BRICS, the rise of the Global South, the crisis of post-World War II =
institutions, and the growing fragmentation of the global economy are creat=
ing areas of convergence that would have been difficult to imagine just a f=
ew years ago. The normalization of relations between New Delhi and Beijing =
does not imply the formation of a strategic alliance. Rather, it signals th=
e emergence of a logic of competitive coexistence, in which rivalry is mana=
ged through permanent diplomatic mechanisms rather than through continuous =
escalation.<br><br>On the one hand, the summit confirms the gradual evoluti=
on of the BRICS toward an increasingly sophisticated political and strategi=
c platform; on the other, it highlights the slow but steady rapprochement b=
etween India and China, two powers that understand how the stability of Eur=
asia and the Global South requires a minimum level of mutual cooperation. T=
he Global South, we should recall, is the primary arena for strategic inves=
tment by the world=E2=80=99s most important players. The shift from economi=
c cooperation to security integration is a step made essential by the insta=
bility of global routes and the aggressiveness of Western countries.<br><br=
>The general impression is that the New Delhi summit offers a preview of wh=
at the international system might become in the coming years: an order=E2=
=80=94increasingly multipolar=E2=80=94characterized not by the absence of c=
onflicts, but by the presence of new mechanisms for coordination among the =
major powers, kept in balance by shared security networks=E2=80=94true netw=
orks of exchange and mutual balance=E2=80=94where the domination of a =E2=
=80=9Cstronger=E2=80=9D power over a =E2=80=9Cweaker=E2=80=9D one is made i=
mpossible.<br><br>Who knows if, between now and the September summit=E2=80=
=94during the BRICS+ plenary session=E2=80=94we might be in for some pleasa=
nt surprises in the form of new security agreements.</b></div>
</div>
</div></div>

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<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RJJOBZ4NCs" target="_blank">&#39;Why Is Israel Allowed Nukes But Not Others?&#39; Will Iran &amp; Trump Make A Peace Deal? | Counterpoints</a></div>
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How Maximum Pressure Weakened U.S. Coercive Power
<https://manaramagazine.org/2026/06/maximum-pressure-us-coercive-power/>


[image: The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan leads a mass
formation of ships from Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, France, Canada,
Australia and the USA.]

   - Political Analysis
   <https://manaramagazine.org/category/political-analysis/>

The Credibility Trap: How Maximum Pressure Weakened U.S. Coercive Power

   - 23 June 2026
   - =C2=B7
   - Sika Sadoddin

There is a structural problem at the heart of American coercive power that
officials rarely articulate: the louder and more frequently a great power
threatens, the less credible each subsequent threat becomes. This is not a
counsel of restraint for its own sake. It is a claim grounded in the logic
of compellence and signalling theory[i]
<https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&elementor-preview=3D17054&ver=3D1782=
243359#_edn1>
=E2=80=93
and the U.S.=E2=80=99 experience with Iran makes the case with unusual clar=
ity.

The Trump administration=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9Cmaximum pressure=E2=80=9D campa=
ign, launched after the
U.S.=E2=80=99 May 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Acti=
on
(JCPOA), was premised on a stark wager: that intensive economic pain would
force Tehran into a renegotiated agreement on U.S. terms or trigger the
kind of internal instability that would render the regime pliable. Neither
happened. But the deeper failure was not merely tactical. The campaign
exposed =E2=80=93 and in exposing, worsened =E2=80=93 a widening gap betwee=
n American
coercive capabilities and their effectiveness. That gap, once visible to
rivals, allies, and fence-sitters alike, has reputational consequences that
outlast any single policy cycle.
The logic of coercion and its conditions for success

Classical theories of compellence, developed by Thomas Schelling and later
systematized by Alexander George, are unambiguous about the conditions
under which coercive pressure produces compliance: demands must be clear,
the threatened punishment credible and proportionate, and =E2=80=93 critica=
lly =E2=80=93 a
viable exit ramp must exist so that compliance would appear politically
rational for the target. Remove any of these elements, and the instrument
turns against its user.

The Center for International and Security Studies[ii]
<https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&elementor-preview=3D17054&ver=3D1782=
243580#_edn2>
identified
this failure pattern precisely: rather than bending Iranian behaviour,
sustained U.S. sanctions deepened Iranian institutional resistance to the
international order and strengthened domestic coalitions opposed to making
concessions. Coercion, applied in the wrong structural conditions, does not
merely fail =E2=80=93 it can reconstitute the target=E2=80=99s internal pol=
itics in ways
that make future coercion even less effective.

James Fearon=E2=80=99s bargaining theory of war adds a second dimension. As=
 applied
to the Iran case,[iii]
<https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&elementor-preview=3D17054&ver=3D1782=
243580#_edn3>
once
a coercing state reverses prior commitments =E2=80=93 as the United States =
did in
abandoning the JCPOA =E2=80=93 the value of any subsequent assurance collap=
ses.
Tehran=E2=80=99s calculation after 2018 was not irrational: if compliance i=
n 2015
did not protect against renewed pressure in 2018, why should compliance in
2019 produce different results? The asymmetry Fearon identifies explains
why Iran=E2=80=99s nuclear programme advanced rather than retreated under p=
ressure.
The domestic distortion effect

A dimension less examined in the policy literature is the degree to which
maximum pressure was calibrated to domestic American audiences as much as
to Tehran. Lawfare=E2=80=99s own coverage of the Islamic Revolutionary Guar=
d Corps=E2=80=99
(IRGC) Foreign Terrorist Organisation designation[iv]
<https://manaramagazine.org/2026/06/maximum-pressure-us-coercive-power/#_ed=
n4>
noted
that it was =E2=80=9Clargely symbolic and added little new economic pressur=
e on the
Iranian regime.=E2=80=9D This was a telling admission that high-visibility =
coercive
acts were being deployed for their performative domestic value rather than
their strategic effect abroad.

This is what might be called the domestic distortion effect: when coercive
rhetoric is calibrated primarily for internal political audiences, it tends
toward maximalism, repetition, and escalating rhetoric decoupled from any
clear operational intent. Adversary decision-makers learn to filter such
signals. The E-International Relations analysis of coercive diplomacy and
Iran[v]
<https://manaramagazine.org/2026/06/maximum-pressure-us-coercive-power/#_ed=
n5>
identifies
the resulting dynamic: target regimes begin to treat the rhetoric of
coercion as evidence of the coercing state=E2=80=99s unreliability, rather =
than its
resolve. Repeated commitments made and reversed generate audience costs in
reverse =E2=80=93 for the coercing state.

The strategic consequence was confirmed in practice. Lawfare=E2=80=99s anal=
ysis of
the JCPOA=E2=80=99s constitutional structure[vi]
<https://manaramagazine.org/2026/06/maximum-pressure-us-coercive-power/#_ed=
n6>
observed
that the Obama administration=E2=80=99s choice to structure the agreement a=
s a
political commitment rather than a treaty was itself a product of domestic
political constraints. The Trump administration=E2=80=99s withdrawal then b=
ecame
the predictable downstream consequence =E2=80=93 demonstrating to every fut=
ure
negotiating partner that U.S. agreements are only as durable as a single
political term.
The empirical record: Pressure without yield

The International Crisis Group=E2=80=99s assessment of maximum pressure[vii=
]
<https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&elementor-preview=3D17054&ver=3D1782=
243580#_edn7>
documented
that Tehran began methodically violating its JCPOA obligations in mid-2019
once it concluded that no economic dividend from compliance was
forthcoming. Iran=E2=80=99s nuclear programme did not stall under pressure.=
 It
accelerated, producing what the Arms Control Association described in
October 2024 as a fundamentally transformed proliferation baseline[viii]
<https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&elementor-preview=3D17054&ver=3D1782=
243580#_edn8>:
complete with shorter breakout timelines, advanced centrifuge capacity, and
significant International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring gaps.

Simultaneously, Iran adapted its economic architecture to defeat the
instrument of pressure itself. By 2024, according to Baker Institute
analysis[ix]
<https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&elementor-preview=3D17054&ver=3D1782=
243580#_edn9>
, Iran was exporting an average of 1.3 million barrels of oil per day, with
roughly 90 percent flowing to China. The Brookings Institution had
anticipated this pattern: decades of pressure cycles[x]
<https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&elementor-preview=3D17054&ver=3D1782=
243580#_edn10>
have
repeatedly failed to convert economic pressure into political concession,
in part because the Iranian leadership has insulated itself institutionally
from the domestic pressures that sanctions theory assumes will translate
into elite bargaining.

The CSIS analysis of the June 2025 strikes on Iran=E2=80=99s nuclear facili=
ties[xi]
<https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&elementor-preview=3D17054&ver=3D1782=
243580#_edn11>
adds
that even after military action degraded Iran=E2=80=99s physical infrastruc=
ture,
the underlying knowledge base, including enrichment expertise, and weapons
design capacity, remained intact. Sanctions and military pressure can
destroy facilities, but they cannot eliminate a state=E2=80=99s accumulated
technological knowledge. The importance of this asymmetry has been
under-weighed in every iteration of maximum pressure logic.
Prestige as infrastructure

The conventional critique of maximum pressure focuses on its immediate
policy failures. The more consequential argument concerns what it did to
the stock of U.S. coercive credibility over time. Prestige, understood not
as vanity but as the operational asset that allows a great power to achieve
outcomes through the *threat* rather than the exercise of force, is
depletable. It accumulates through demonstrated follow-through and erodes
through visible gaps between declared intent and actual behaviour.

The Lawfare analysis of the legal architecture of U.S. sanctions authority
[xii]
<https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&elementor-preview=3D17054&ver=3D1782=
243580#_edn12>
captures
a related structural problem: the absence of an agreed international legal
framework for the reimposition of sanctions left the United States legally
isolated in ways that compounded the strategic isolation. When the European
partners =E2=80=93 France, Germany, and the United Kingdom =E2=80=93 diverg=
ed from
Washington after the 2018 JCPOA withdrawal, the multilateral infrastructure
that had given earlier sanctions their credibility was dismantled. A
coercing coalition that has been fractured from within provides, as
George=E2=80=99s framework predicts, significantly weaker deterrent signall=
ing than
a unified one.

When Iran observed that American threats had been issued and not followed
through with decisive escalation over multiple years, it updated its
assessment of U.S. resolve.
The structural lesson and its persistence

The return of maximum pressure in Trump=E2=80=99s second term against an Ir=
an
already militarily weakened by Israeli strikes and the December 2024 fall
of the Assad regime opened direct U.S.-Iran negotiations for the first time
since 2018.[xiii]
<https://manaramagazine.org/2026/06/maximum-pressure-us-coercive-power/#_ed=
n13>
This
complicates any linear narrative of failure. But the Lawfare Daily
podcast=E2=80=99s analysis[xiv]
<https://manaramagazine.org/2026/06/maximum-pressure-us-coercive-power/#_ed=
n14>
 identified the persistent credibility problem even in this changed
context: U.S. demands =E2=80=93 nuclear rollback, proxy disarmament, and ba=
llistic
missile abandonment =E2=80=93 remained inconsistent across interlocutors an=
d
administrations, making it structurally difficult for any Iranian
leadership to identify what compliance would actually purchase.

The deeper structural lesson is not about Iran specifically. It is about
what happens when a hegemonic power uses coercive instruments reactively,
publicly, and without a coherent exit architecture: the infrastructure of
credibility does not hold. Each miscalibrated signal is a data point that
rivals, partners, and neutral states incorporate into their own strategic
calculations. The result is not catastrophic decline but gradual
reputational erosion as a result of the slow accumulation of doubts about
the reliability of American commitments.

Credibility lost to miscalibration cannot be recovered by additional
threats. It requires, as George=E2=80=99s framework demands, consistent ali=
gnment
between stated objectives, operational capability, and follow-through over
time. The Iran case suggests that the United States has significant work to
do in all three dimensions.

[i]
<https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&elementor-preview=3D17054&ver=3D1782=
243359#_ednref1>
Rapp-Hooper,
M. (2014). =E2=80=9CNew Iran Sanctions Would Undermine Coercion=E2=80=9D, *=
Center for a New
American Security*, 13 January 2014, retrieved from:
https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/new-iran-sanctions-would-under=
mine-coercion
.
[ii]
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243359#_ednref2>
Mohseni,
E. (2015). =E2=80=9CWhen Coercion Backfires: The Limits of Coercive Diploma=
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Iran=E2=80=9D, *Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland*,=
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2015, retrieved from:
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limits-coercive-diplomacy-iran
.
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243359#_ednref3>
Cardot,
L. (2026). =E2=80=9CCoercive Diplomacy and the Limits of Credible Bargainin=
g in the
U.S.=E2=80=93Iran Standoff=E2=80=9D, *UCL Diplomacy Society*, 23 March 2026=
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ximum-pressure-against-iran
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-iran>
.

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><a href=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/2026/06/maximum-pres=
sure-us-coercive-power/">How Maximum Pressure Weakened U.S. Coercive Power<=
/a><br><div><br></div><div><br class=3D"gmail-Apple-interchange-newline"><d=
iv class=3D"elementor-background-overlay" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;op=
acity:0.07;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Merriweather,sans-serif;font-size:1=
6px"></div><div class=3D"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default" =
style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;margin-left:auto;margin-right:a=
uto;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Merriweather,sans-serif;font-size:16px"><d=
iv class=3D"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column element=
or-element elementor-element-2d6100ba" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;displ=
ay:flex;min-height:1px;width:1440px"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-wrap el=
ementor-element-populated" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;width:1440px;disp=
lay:flex;padding:0px;border-style:none;margin:0px"><div class=3D"elementor-=
container elementor-column-gap-default" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;disp=
lay:flex;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;max-width:1440px"><div class=3D=
"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element=
 elementor-element-7460e4bc" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;mi=
n-height:1px;width:1123.2px"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-=
element-populated" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;width:1123.2px;display:fl=
ex;padding:0px;margin:0px"><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-elemen=
t-666cbec elementor-widget__width-inherit gmail-ob-has-background-overlay e=
lementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-featured-image elementor-widget=
-image" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;text-align:center;line-height:0;widt=
h:1123.2px;max-width:100%;margin-bottom:20px"><div class=3D"elementor-widge=
t-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-height:0;padding:0px 15px =
0px 0px"><img width=3D"2560" height=3D"1699" src=3D"https://manaramagazine.=
org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/shutterstock_2599523537_opt-scaled.jpg" clas=
s=3D"gmail-attachment-full gmail-size-full gmail-wp-image-17069" alt=3D"The=
 Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan leads a mass formation of =
ships from Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, France, Canada, Australia and t=
he USA." style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; height: 450px; max-width: 100%; b=
order-style: none; contain-intrinsic-size: 3000px 1500px; border-width: med=
ium; border-color: currentcolor; border-image: initial; border-radius: 0px;=
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ht: 0; width: 1108.2px; object-fit: cover; object-position: center center;"=
></div></div><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-b2f3a43 elem=
entor-align-center elementor-widget__width-auto gmail-ob-has-background-ove=
rlay elementor-widget elementor-widget-post-info" style=3D"box-sizing:borde=
r-box;text-align:center;width:auto;max-width:100%;margin-bottom:0px"><div c=
lass=3D"elementor-widget-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;backgrou=
nd-color:rgb(244,152,27);margin:0px 0px 0px 15px;padding:4px 12px 4px 9px">=
<ul class=3D"elementor-inline-items elementor-icon-list-items elementor-pos=
t-info" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background:transparent;border:0px;ou=
tline:0px;vertical-align:baseline;list-style-type:none;margin-top:0px;margi=
n-bottom:0px;padding:0px;display:flex"><li class=3D"elementor-icon-list-ite=
m elementor-repeater-item-b2b88f6 elementor-inline-item" style=3D"box-sizin=
g:border-box;background:transparent;border:0px;font-size:inherit;outline:0p=
x;vertical-align:baseline;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;padding:0px;disp=
lay:flex;font-family:Raleway,sans-serif;line-height:1.5;word-break:break-wo=
rd;text-transform:uppercase"><span class=3D"elementor-icon-list-icon" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;width:0px"><span aria-hidden=3D"true=
" class=3D"gmail-fas gmail-fa-tags" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;display:=
inline-block;font-variant:normal;line-height:1;font-family:&quot;Font Aweso=
me 5 Free&quot;;font-weight:900;font-size:0px;width:1.25em;color:rgb(244,15=
2,27)"></span></span><span class=3D"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post=
-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-terms" style=3D"box-sizing:bord=
er-box;display:inline-block;padding-left:5px"><span class=3D"elementor-post=
-info__terms-list" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;display:inline;margin-bot=
tom:6px"><a href=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/category/political-analysis/=
" class=3D"elementor-post-info__terms-list-item" style=3D"box-sizing:border=
-box;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(0,0,0);margin-top:10px;margin-b=
ottom:10px;font-family:Raleway;font-weight:bold;display:inline;text-decorat=
ion:inherit;font-size:12px">Political Analysis</a></span></span></li></ul><=
/div></div><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-1346b6b gmail-=
ob-has-background-overlay elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-titl=
e elementor-page-title elementor-widget-heading" style=3D"box-sizing:border=
-box;width:1123.2px;margin-bottom:20px"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-cont=
ainer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:10px 0px 0px 15px"><h1 class=
=3D"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default" style=3D"box-sizing:bor=
der-box;font-family:Raleway,sans-serif;line-height:1.5;font-size:40px;margi=
n:0px;padding:0px">The Credibility Trap: How Maximum Pressure Weakened U.S.=
 Coercive Power</h1></div></div><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-e=
lement-f8f53c5 elementor-widget-divider--view-line gmail-ob-has-background-=
overlay elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider" style=3D"box-sizing:bord=
er-box;width:1123.2px;margin-bottom:20px"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-co=
ntainer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px"><div class=3D"elementor=
-divider" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;display:flex"><span class=3D"eleme=
ntor-divider-separator" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;direction:ltr;displa=
y:flex;margin:0px;width:1123.2px"></span></div></div></div><div class=3D"el=
ementor-element elementor-element-fa7b6d5 elementor-align-center elementor-=
widget__width-auto gmail-ob-has-background-overlay elementor-widget element=
or-widget-post-info" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;text-align:center;width=
:auto;max-width:100%;margin-bottom:0px"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-cont=
ainer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 0px 15px"><ul class=3D=
"elementor-inline-items elementor-icon-list-items elementor-post-info" styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background:transparent;border:0px;outline:0px;ve=
rtical-align:baseline;list-style-type:none;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px=
;padding:0px;display:flex"><li class=3D"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-=
repeater-item-25f3d0e elementor-inline-item" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box=
;background:transparent;border:0px;font-size:inherit;outline:0px;vertical-a=
lign:baseline;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;padding:0px;display:flex;fon=
t-family:&quot;Merriweather Sans&quot;,sans-serif;line-height:1.5;word-brea=
k:break-word"><span class=3D"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__=
item elementor-post-info__item--type-date" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;d=
isplay:inline-block;padding-left:1px">23 June 2026</span></li><li class=3D"=
elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-6fabae0 elementor-inline-i=
tem" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background:transparent;border:0px;font-=
size:inherit;outline:0px;vertical-align:baseline;margin-top:0px;margin-bott=
om:0px;padding:0px;display:flex;font-family:&quot;Merriweather Sans&quot;,s=
ans-serif;line-height:1.5;word-break:break-word"><span class=3D"elementor-i=
con-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-cus=
tom" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;display:inline-block;font-weight:bold;p=
adding-left:1px">=C2=B7</span></li><li class=3D"elementor-icon-list-item el=
ementor-repeater-item-b2b88f6 elementor-inline-item" style=3D"box-sizing:bo=
rder-box;background:transparent;border:0px;font-size:inherit;outline:0px;ve=
rtical-align:baseline;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;padding:0px;display:=
flex;font-family:&quot;Merriweather Sans&quot;,sans-serif;line-height:1.5;w=
ord-break:break-word"><span class=3D"elementor-icon-list-icon" style=3D"box=
-sizing:border-box;display:flex;width:0px"><span aria-hidden=3D"true" class=
=3D"gmail-far gmail-fa-tags" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;display:inline-=
block;font-variant:normal;line-height:1;font-family:&quot;Font Awesome 5 Fr=
ee&quot;;font-size:6px;width:1.25em;color:rgba(244,152,27,0)"></span></span=
><span class=3D"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elemento=
r-post-info__item--type-custom" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;display:inli=
ne-block;font-weight:bold;padding-left:1px">Sika Sadoddin</span></li></ul><=
/div></div><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-952abf8 gmail-=
ob-has-background-overlay gmail-ob-postman elementor-widget elementor-widge=
t-theme-post-content" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-height:1.5;width:=
1123.2px;text-align:justify;margin-bottom:20px"><div class=3D"elementor-wid=
get-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 15px 0px 10px"><di=
v class=3D"elementor elementor-17054" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><div =
class=3D"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default" style=3D"box-siz=
ing:border-box;display:flex;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;max-width:14=
40px"><div class=3D"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column=
 elementor-element elementor-element-b2445e8" style=3D"box-sizing:border-bo=
x;display:flex;min-height:1px;width:1098.2px"><div class=3D"elementor-widge=
t-wrap elementor-element-populated" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;width:10=
98.2px;display:flex;padding:10px"><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor=
-element-4cb6794 gmail-ob-harakiri-inherit gmail-ob-has-background-overlay =
elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor gmail-ob-harakiri" style=3D"b=
ox-sizing:border-box;line-height:1.5;width:1078.2px;margin-bottom:20px;writ=
ing-mode:inherit"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-container" style=3D"box-si=
zing:border-box;mix-blend-mode:inherit;writing-mode:inherit"><p style=3D"bo=
x-sizing:border-box">There is a structural problem at the heart of American=
 coercive power that officials rarely articulate: the louder and more frequ=
ently a great power threatens, the less credible each subsequent threat bec=
omes. This is not a counsel of restraint for its own sake. It is a claim gr=
ounded in the logic of compellence and signalling theory<a href=3D"https://=
manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=3D17054&amp;ver=3D17822=
43359#_edn1" name=3D"_ednref1" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-co=
lor:transparent;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-decoration:inher=
it">[i]</a>=C2=A0=E2=80=93 and the U.S.=E2=80=99 experience with Iran makes=
 the case with unusual clarity.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">The T=
rump administration=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9Cmaximum pressure=E2=80=9D campaign, =
launched after the U.S.=E2=80=99 May 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Compreh=
ensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was premised on a stark wager: that intensiv=
e economic pain would force Tehran into a renegotiated agreement on U.S. te=
rms or trigger the kind of internal instability that would render the regim=
e pliable. Neither happened. But the deeper failure was not merely tactical=
. The campaign exposed =E2=80=93 and in exposing, worsened =E2=80=93 a wide=
ning gap between American coercive capabilities and their effectiveness. Th=
at gap, once visible to rivals, allies, and fence-sitters alike, has reputa=
tional consequences that outlast any single policy cycle.</p></div></div><d=
iv class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-dd25891 gmail-ob-harakiri-i=
nherit gmail-ob-has-background-overlay elementor-widget elementor-widget-he=
ading gmail-ob-harakiri" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;width:1078.2px;marg=
in-bottom:20px;writing-mode:inherit"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-contain=
er" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;mix-blend-mode:inherit;writing-mode:inhe=
rit"><h2 class=3D"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default" style=3D"=
box-sizing:border-box;line-height:1.5;font-size:16px;margin:0px;padding:0px=
;writing-mode:inherit">The logic of coercion and its conditions for success=
</h2></div></div><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-3740a41 =
gmail-ob-harakiri-inherit gmail-ob-has-background-overlay elementor-widget =
elementor-widget-text-editor gmail-ob-harakiri" style=3D"box-sizing:border-=
box;line-height:1.5;width:1078.2px;margin-bottom:20px;writing-mode:inherit"=
><div class=3D"elementor-widget-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;m=
ix-blend-mode:inherit;writing-mode:inherit"><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-b=
ox">Classical theories of compellence, developed by Thomas Schelling and la=
ter systematized by Alexander George, are unambiguous about the conditions =
under which coercive pressure produces compliance: demands must be clear, t=
he threatened punishment credible and proportionate, and =E2=80=93 critical=
ly =E2=80=93 a viable exit ramp must exist so that compliance would appear =
politically rational for the target. Remove any of these elements, and the =
instrument turns against its user.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a=
 name=3D"ednref2" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transpare=
nt;color:inherit;font-weight:600"></a>The Center for International and Secu=
rity Studies<a href=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-=
preview=3D17054&amp;ver=3D1782243580#_edn2" name=3D"_ednref2" style=3D"box-=
sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-w=
eight:600;text-decoration:inherit">[ii]</a>=C2=A0identified this failure pa=
ttern precisely: rather than bending Iranian behaviour, sustained U.S. sanc=
tions deepened Iranian institutional resistance to the international order =
and strengthened domestic coalitions opposed to making concessions. Coercio=
n, applied in the wrong structural conditions, does not merely fail =E2=80=
=93 it can reconstitute the target=E2=80=99s internal politics in ways that=
 make future coercion even less effective.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border=
-box"><a name=3D"ednref3" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:t=
ransparent;color:inherit;font-weight:600"></a>James Fearon=E2=80=99s bargai=
ning theory of war adds a second dimension. As applied to the Iran case,<a =
href=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=3D17054=
&amp;ver=3D1782243580#_edn3" name=3D"_ednref3" style=3D"box-sizing:border-b=
ox;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-=
decoration:inherit">[iii]</a>=C2=A0once a coercing state reverses prior com=
mitments =E2=80=93 as the United States did in abandoning the JCPOA =E2=80=
=93 the value of any subsequent assurance collapses. Tehran=E2=80=99s calcu=
lation after 2018 was not irrational: if compliance in 2015 did not protect=
 against renewed pressure in 2018, why should compliance in 2019 produce di=
fferent results? The asymmetry Fearon identifies explains why Iran=E2=80=99=
s nuclear programme advanced rather than retreated under pressure.</p></div=
></div><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-50ee836 gmail-ob-h=
arakiri-inherit gmail-ob-has-background-overlay elementor-widget elementor-=
widget-heading gmail-ob-harakiri" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;width:1078=
.2px;margin-bottom:20px;writing-mode:inherit"><div class=3D"elementor-widge=
t-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;mix-blend-mode:inherit;writing-=
mode:inherit"><h2 class=3D"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default" =
style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-height:1.5;font-size:16px;margin:0px;pa=
dding:0px;writing-mode:inherit">The domestic distortion effect</h2></div></=
div><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-8876921 gmail-ob-hara=
kiri-inherit gmail-ob-has-background-overlay elementor-widget elementor-wid=
get-text-editor gmail-ob-harakiri" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-heig=
ht:1.5;width:1078.2px;margin-bottom:20px;writing-mode:inherit"><div class=
=3D"elementor-widget-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;mix-blend-mo=
de:inherit;writing-mode:inherit"><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">A dimen=
sion less examined in the policy literature is the degree to which maximum =
pressure was calibrated to domestic American audiences as much as to Tehran=
. Lawfare=E2=80=99s own coverage of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps=
=E2=80=99 (IRGC) Foreign Terrorist Organisation designation<a href=3D"https=
://manaramagazine.org/2026/06/maximum-pressure-us-coercive-power/#_edn4" na=
me=3D"_ednref4" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-w=
eight:600;text-decoration:inherit">[iv]</a>=C2=A0noted that it was =E2=80=
=9Clargely symbolic and added little new economic pressure on the Iranian r=
egime.=E2=80=9D This was a telling admission that high-visibility coercive =
acts were being deployed for their performative domestic value rather than =
their strategic effect abroad.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a nam=
e=3D"ednref5" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;c=
olor:inherit;font-weight:600"></a>This is what might be called the domestic=
 distortion effect: when coercive rhetoric is calibrated primarily for inte=
rnal political audiences, it tends toward maximalism, repetition, and escal=
ating rhetoric decoupled from any clear operational intent. Adversary decis=
ion-makers learn to filter such signals. The E-International Relations anal=
ysis of coercive diplomacy and Iran<a href=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/20=
26/06/maximum-pressure-us-coercive-power/#_edn5" name=3D"_ednref5" style=3D=
"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(244,152,27);f=
ont-weight:600;text-decoration:inherit">[v]</a>=C2=A0identifies the resulti=
ng dynamic: target regimes begin to treat the rhetoric of coercion as evide=
nce of the coercing state=E2=80=99s unreliability, rather than its resolve.=
 Repeated commitments made and reversed generate audience costs in reverse =
=E2=80=93 for the coercing state.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a =
name=3D"ednref6" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparen=
t;color:inherit;font-weight:600"></a>The strategic consequence was confirme=
d in practice. Lawfare=E2=80=99s analysis of the JCPOA=E2=80=99s constituti=
onal structure<a href=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/2026/06/maximum-pressur=
e-us-coercive-power/#_edn6" name=3D"_ednref6" style=3D"box-sizing:border-bo=
x;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-d=
ecoration:inherit">[vi]</a>=C2=A0observed that the Obama administration=E2=
=80=99s choice to structure the agreement as a political commitment rather =
than a treaty was itself a product of domestic political constraints. The T=
rump administration=E2=80=99s withdrawal then became the predictable downst=
ream consequence =E2=80=93 demonstrating to every future negotiating partne=
r that U.S. agreements are only as durable as a single political term.</p><=
/div></div><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-50129bd gmail-=
ob-harakiri-inherit gmail-ob-has-background-overlay elementor-widget elemen=
tor-widget-heading gmail-ob-harakiri" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;width:=
1078.2px;margin-bottom:20px;writing-mode:inherit"><div class=3D"elementor-w=
idget-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;mix-blend-mode:inherit;writ=
ing-mode:inherit"><h2 class=3D"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-defau=
lt" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-height:1.5;font-size:16px;margin:0p=
x;padding:0px;writing-mode:inherit">The empirical record: Pressure without =
yield</h2></div></div><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-ed4=
e4f0 gmail-ob-harakiri-inherit gmail-ob-has-background-overlay elementor-wi=
dget elementor-widget-text-editor gmail-ob-harakiri" style=3D"box-sizing:bo=
rder-box;line-height:1.5;width:1078.2px;margin-bottom:20px;writing-mode:inh=
erit"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-=
box;mix-blend-mode:inherit;writing-mode:inherit"><p style=3D"box-sizing:bor=
der-box">The International Crisis Group=E2=80=99s assessment of maximum pre=
ssure<a name=3D"ednref8" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:tr=
ansparent;color:inherit;font-weight:600"></a><a href=3D"https://manaramagaz=
ine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=3D17054&amp;ver=3D1782243580#_edn7=
" name=3D"_ednref7" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transpa=
rent;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-decoration:inherit">[vii]</=
a>=C2=A0documented that Tehran began methodically violating its JCPOA oblig=
ations in mid-2019 once it concluded that no economic dividend from complia=
nce was forthcoming. Iran=E2=80=99s nuclear programme did not stall under p=
ressure. It accelerated, producing what the Arms Control Association descri=
bed in October 2024 as a fundamentally transformed proliferation baseline<a=
 href=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=3D1705=
4&amp;ver=3D1782243580#_edn8" name=3D"_ednref8" style=3D"box-sizing:border-=
box;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text=
-decoration:inherit">[viii]</a>: complete with shorter breakout timelines, =
advanced centrifuge capacity, and significant International Atomic Energy A=
gency monitoring gaps.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a name=3D"edn=
ref9" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:inh=
erit;font-weight:600"></a>Simultaneously, Iran adapted its economic archite=
cture to defeat the instrument of pressure itself. By 2024, according to Ba=
ker Institute analysis<a href=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;=
elementor-preview=3D17054&amp;ver=3D1782243580#_edn9" name=3D"_ednref9" sty=
le=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(244,152,=
27);font-weight:600;text-decoration:inherit">[ix]</a>,<a name=3D"ednref10" =
style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:inherit;f=
ont-weight:600"></a>=C2=A0Iran was exporting an average of 1.3 million barr=
els of oil per day, with roughly 90 percent flowing to China. The Brookings=
 Institution had anticipated this pattern: decades of pressure cycles<a hre=
f=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=3D17054&am=
p;ver=3D1782243580#_edn10" name=3D"_ednref10" style=3D"box-sizing:border-bo=
x;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-d=
ecoration:inherit">[x]</a>=C2=A0have repeatedly failed to convert economic =
pressure into political concession, in part because the Iranian leadership =
has insulated itself institutionally from the domestic pressures that sanct=
ions theory assumes will translate into elite bargaining.</p><p style=3D"bo=
x-sizing:border-box"><a name=3D"ednref11" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;ba=
ckground-color:transparent;color:inherit;font-weight:600"></a>The CSIS anal=
ysis of the June 2025 strikes on Iran=E2=80=99s nuclear facilities<a href=
=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=3D17054&amp=
;ver=3D1782243580#_edn11" name=3D"_ednref11" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box=
;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-de=
coration:inherit">[xi]</a>=C2=A0adds that even after military action degrad=
ed Iran=E2=80=99s physical infrastructure, the underlying knowledge base, i=
ncluding enrichment expertise, and weapons design capacity, remained intact=
. Sanctions and military pressure can destroy facilities, but they cannot e=
liminate a state=E2=80=99s accumulated technological knowledge. The importa=
nce of this asymmetry has been under-weighed in every iteration of maximum =
pressure logic.</p></div></div><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-el=
ement-236a73e gmail-ob-harakiri-inherit gmail-ob-has-background-overlay ele=
mentor-widget elementor-widget-heading gmail-ob-harakiri" style=3D"box-sizi=
ng:border-box;width:1078.2px;margin-bottom:20px;writing-mode:inherit"><div =
class=3D"elementor-widget-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;mix-ble=
nd-mode:inherit;writing-mode:inherit"><h2 class=3D"elementor-heading-title =
elementor-size-default" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-height:1.5;font=
-size:16px;margin:0px;padding:0px;writing-mode:inherit">Prestige as infrast=
ructure</h2></div></div><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-1=
b9cf98 gmail-ob-harakiri-inherit gmail-ob-has-background-overlay elementor-=
widget elementor-widget-text-editor gmail-ob-harakiri" style=3D"box-sizing:=
border-box;line-height:1.5;width:1078.2px;margin-bottom:20px;writing-mode:i=
nherit"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-container" style=3D"box-sizing:borde=
r-box;mix-blend-mode:inherit;writing-mode:inherit"><p style=3D"box-sizing:b=
order-box">The conventional critique of maximum pressure focuses on its imm=
ediate policy failures. The more consequential argument concerns what it di=
d to the stock of U.S. coercive credibility over time. Prestige, understood=
 not as vanity but as the operational asset that allows a great power to ac=
hieve outcomes through the=C2=A0<em style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">threat<=
/em>=C2=A0rather than the exercise of force, is depletable. It accumulates =
through demonstrated follow-through and erodes through visible gaps between=
 declared intent and actual behaviour.<a name=3D"ednref7" style=3D"box-sizi=
ng:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:inherit;font-weight:600"><=
/a></p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a name=3D"ednref12" style=3D"box=
-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:inherit;font-weight:6=
00"></a>The Lawfare analysis of the legal architecture of U.S. sanctions au=
thority<a href=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-previ=
ew=3D17054&amp;ver=3D1782243580#_edn12" name=3D"_ednref12" style=3D"box-siz=
ing:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weig=
ht:600;text-decoration:inherit">[xii]</a>=C2=A0captures a related structura=
l problem: the absence of an agreed international legal framework for the r=
eimposition of sanctions left the United States legally isolated in ways th=
at compounded the strategic isolation. When the European partners =E2=80=93=
 France, Germany, and the United Kingdom =E2=80=93 diverged from Washington=
 after the 2018 JCPOA withdrawal, the multilateral infrastructure that had =
given earlier sanctions their credibility was dismantled. A coercing coalit=
ion that has been fractured from within provides, as George=E2=80=99s frame=
work predicts, significantly weaker deterrent signalling than a unified one=
.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a name=3D"ednref13" style=3D"box-s=
izing:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:inherit;font-weight:600=
"></a>When Iran observed that American threats had been issued and not foll=
owed through with decisive escalation over multiple years, it updated its a=
ssessment of U.S. resolve.</p></div></div><div class=3D"elementor-element e=
lementor-element-9cdc66f gmail-ob-harakiri-inherit gmail-ob-has-background-=
overlay elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading gmail-ob-harakiri" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;width:1078.2px;margin-bottom:20px;writing-mode:in=
herit"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border=
-box;mix-blend-mode:inherit;writing-mode:inherit"><h2 class=3D"elementor-he=
ading-title elementor-size-default" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-hei=
ght:1.5;font-size:16px;margin:0px;padding:0px;writing-mode:inherit">The str=
uctural lesson and its persistence</h2></div></div><div class=3D"elementor-=
element elementor-element-af1630d gmail-ob-harakiri-inherit gmail-ob-has-ba=
ckground-overlay elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor gmail-ob-har=
akiri" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-height:1.5;width:1078.2px;margin=
-bottom:20px;writing-mode:inherit"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-container=
" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;mix-blend-mode:inherit;writing-mode:inheri=
t"><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">The return of maximum pressure in Tru=
mp=E2=80=99s second term against an Iran already militarily weakened by Isr=
aeli strikes and the December 2024 fall of the Assad regime opened direct U=
.S.-Iran negotiations for the first time since 2018.<a href=3D"https://mana=
ramagazine.org/2026/06/maximum-pressure-us-coercive-power/#_edn13" name=3D"=
_ednref13" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight=
:600;text-decoration:inherit">[xiii]</a>=C2=A0This complicates any linear n=
arrative of failure. But the Lawfare Daily podcast=E2=80=99s analysis<a hre=
f=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/2026/06/maximum-pressure-us-coercive-power/=
#_edn14" name=3D"_ednref14" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,15=
2,27);font-weight:600;text-decoration:inherit">[xiv]</a>=C2=A0<a name=3D"ed=
nref15" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-weight:600"></a>identified the =
persistent credibility problem even in this changed context: U.S. demands =
=E2=80=93 nuclear rollback, proxy disarmament, and ballistic missile abando=
nment =E2=80=93 remained inconsistent across interlocutors and administrati=
ons, making it structurally difficult for any Iranian leadership to identif=
y what compliance would actually purchase.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border=
-box">The deeper structural lesson is not about Iran specifically. It is ab=
out what happens when a hegemonic power uses coercive instruments reactivel=
y, publicly, and without a coherent exit architecture: the infrastructure o=
f credibility does not hold. Each miscalibrated signal is a data point that=
 rivals, partners, and neutral states incorporate into their own strategic =
calculations. The result is not catastrophic decline but gradual reputation=
al erosion as a result of the slow accumulation of doubts about the reliabi=
lity of American commitments.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">Credibi=
lity lost to miscalibration cannot be recovered by additional threats. It r=
equires, as George=E2=80=99s framework demands, consistent alignment betwee=
n stated objectives, operational capability, and follow-through over time. =
The Iran case suggests that the United States has significant work to do in=
 all three dimensions.</p></div></div><div class=3D"elementor-element eleme=
ntor-element-202ba60 gmail-ob-harakiri-inherit gmail-ob-has-background-over=
lay elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor gmail-ob-harakiri" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-height:1.5;width:1078.2px;text-align:left;fo=
nt-size:13px;writing-mode:inherit"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-container=
" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;mix-blend-mode:inherit;writing-mode:inheri=
t"><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a href=3D"https://manaramagazine.org=
/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=3D17054&amp;ver=3D1782243359#_ednref1" na=
me=3D"_edn1" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;co=
lor:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-decoration:inherit">[i]</a>=C2=A0R=
app-Hooper, M. (2014). =E2=80=9CNew Iran Sanctions Would Undermine Coercion=
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ckground-color:transparent;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-decor=
ation:inherit">https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/new-iran-sancti=
ons-would-undermine-coercion</a>.<br style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a hre=
f=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=3D17054&am=
p;ver=3D1782243359#_ednref2" name=3D"_edn2" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;=
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enter for International and Security Studies at Maryland</em>, 1 May 2015, =
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blank" rel=3D"noopener" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,152,27=
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mpact/publications/when-coercion-backfires-limits-coercive-diplomacy-iran</=
a>.<br style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a href=3D"https://manaramagazine.or=
g/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=3D17054&amp;ver=3D1782243359#_ednref3" n=
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s://www.ucldiplomacy.com/post/negotiating-under-duress-coercive-diplomacy-a=
nd-the-limits-of-credible-bargaining-in-the-u-s-iran" target=3D"_blank" rel=
=3D"noopener" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-wei=
ght:600;text-decoration:inherit">https://www.ucldiplomacy.com/post/negotiat=
ing-under-duress-coercive-diplomacy-and-the-limits-of-credible-bargaining-i=
n-the-u-s-iran</a>.<br style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a href=3D"https://m=
anaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=3D17054&amp;ver=3D178224=
3359#_ednref4" name=3D"_edn4" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,=
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le=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-deco=
ration:inherit">https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/nuclear-brinkmanship-u=
s-sanctions-against-iran-explained</a>.<br style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">=
<a href=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=3D17=
054&amp;ver=3D1782243359#_ednref5" name=3D"_edn5" style=3D"box-sizing:borde=
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ng-coercive-diplomacy-in-iran/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener" style=3D=
"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-decoratio=
n:inherit">https://www.e-ir.info/2026/04/24/the-nuclear-brink-revisited-ass=
essing-coercive-diplomacy-in-iran/</a>.<br style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">=
<a href=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=3D17=
054&amp;ver=3D1782243359#_ednref6" name=3D"_edn6" style=3D"box-sizing:borde=
r-box;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-decoration:inherit">[vi]</=
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the Obama Administration Sowed in the Iran Deal=E2=80=9D,=C2=A0<em style=3D=
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-obama-administration-sowed-iran-deal" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener" s=
tyle=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-de=
coration:inherit">https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/trump-administration=
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aramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=3D17054&amp;ver=3D17822433=
59#_ednref7" name=3D"_edn7" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,15=
2,27);font-weight:600;text-decoration:inherit">[vii]</a>=C2=A0=E2=80=9CThe =
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=C2=A0<em style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">International Crisis Group</em>, =
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-north-africa/iran/failure-us-maximum-pressure-against-iran" target=3D"_bla=
nk" rel=3D"noopener" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,152,27);f=
ont-weight:600;text-decoration:inherit">https://www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/mid=
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"noopener" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight=
:600;text-decoration:inherit">https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-10/featu=
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(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-decoration:inherit">https://www.bakerinst=
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esponse</a>.<br style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a href=3D"https://manarama=
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hat-the-iran-strikes-mean-for-nuclear-diplomacy" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"n=
oopener" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:6=
00;text-decoration:inherit">https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/what-the-i=
ran-strikes-mean-for-nuclear-diplomacy</a>.<br style=3D"box-sizing:border-b=
ox"><a href=3D"https://manaramagazine.org/?p=3D17054&amp;elementor-preview=
=3D17054&amp;ver=3D1782243359#_ednref14" name=3D"_edn14" style=3D"box-sizin=
g:border-box;color:rgb(244,152,27);font-weight:600;text-decoration:inherit"=
>[xiv]</a>=C2=A0<a name=3D"edn15" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-weigh=
t:600"></a>Wittes, B. et al. (2026). =E2=80=9CLawfare Daily: Are We Going t=
o War in Iran?=E2=80=9D,=C2=A0<em style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">Lawfare</=
em>, 25 February 2026, retrieved from:=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.lawfarem=
edia.org/article/lawfare-daily--are-we-going-to-war-in-iran" target=3D"_bla=
nk" rel=3D"noopener" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(244,152,27);f=
ont-weight:600;text-decoration:inherit">https://www.lawfaremedia.org/articl=
e/lawfare-daily=E2=80=93are-we-going-to-war-in-iran</a>.</p></div></div></d=
iv></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>=
</div>

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Subject: [Salon] From Vietnam to Iran: Wartime Diplomacy and Secret Deals
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*https://warontherocks.com/from-vietnam-to-iran-wartime-diplomacy-and-secre=
t-deals/
<https://warontherocks.com/from-vietnam-to-iran-wartime-diplomacy-and-secre=
t-deals/>*

*From Vietnam to Iran: Wartime Diplomacy and Secret Deals*
*Pierre Asselin* <https://warontherocks.com/author/pierre-asselin/>
 6/24/26

*Wars rarely end in a single act of diplomacy. More often, they pass
through a succession of ceasefires, frameworks, understandings, as well as
provisional and even secret arrangements before anyone can determine
whether peace is actually at hand. The Trump administration=E2=80=99s memor=
andum
with Iran is best understood in those terms. In both form and logic, it
recalls an earlier American effort to negotiate an exit from an unpopular
conflict: the Paris Peace Accords of 1973.*

*The four primary parties to the Vietnam War (1965 to 1975) =E2=80=94 the U=
nited
States, South Vietnam, North Vietnam, and the Provisional Revolutionary
Government of the Republic of Southern Vietnam (popularly known as the Viet
Cong) =E2=80=94 signed the Agreement on Ending the War and Restoring Peace =
in
Vietnam
<https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20935/volume-935-I-132=
95-English.pdf>
on
January 27, 1973. This latest agreement was the product of more than four
years of semi-public, private, and secret talks held in the French capital.=
*

*The agreement was neither a comprehensive settlement nor the harbinger of
a permanent peace. Rather, it was a ceasefire arrangement providing for the
de-Americanization of hostilities and an exchange of prisoners-of-war and
captured foreign civilians among the signatories. It addressed none of the
differences between Hanoi and Saigon that lay at the heart of the conflict.
Instead, it left them to be resolved among the Vietnamese parties
themselves in separate, subsequent negotiations to begin immediately after
the ceasefire took effect on the day of signing. According to Article 12 of
the Paris Agreement
<https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20935/volume-935-I-132=
95-English.pdf>,
those parties vowed to =E2=80=9Cdo their utmost=E2=80=9D to settle their po=
litical
divergences within 90 days.*

*Since the Paris Agreement lacked any tangible inducements and enforcement
mechanism, President Richard Nixon made private pledges to both Hanoi and
Saigon, aiming to secure their endorsement and compliance. He secretly
pledged to North Vietnam=E2=80=99s Prime Minister Pham Van Dong $3.25 billi=
on in
=E2=80=9Creconstruction=E2=80=9D aid
<https://www.nytimes.com/1977/05/20/archives/texts-of-announcement-by-state=
-department-and-two-nixon-letters.html>,
and to South Vietnam=E2=80=99s President Nguyen Van Thieu, continued milita=
ry and
economic assistance
<https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v09/d248> as well
as swift and savage retaliatory action against North Vietnam
<https://www.nytimes.com/1975/04/10/archives/nixon-told-thieu-us-would-reac=
t-to-red-offensive-white-house-says.html>
in
the event Hanoi violated the terms of the settlement. Owing to
circumstances =E2=80=94 namely, the Watergate scandal but also the Case-Chu=
rch
Amendment and War Powers Resolution =E2=80=94 and the fact these were perso=
nal
guarantees, or =E2=80=9Cgentlemen=E2=80=99s agreements,=E2=80=9D valid only=
 as long as Nixon
himself was in office =E2=80=94 neither commitment was fulfilled.*

*The Agreement on Ending the War and Restoring Peace in Vietnam is thus
misnamed. It ended not a war but America=E2=80=99s direct participation in =
it. And
it delivered not lasting peace but a framework to achieve it later. In form
and substance, the Paris Agreement exposed the shortcomings and ultimate
futility of the American military project in Southeast Asia.*

*As it turns out, neither Hanoi nor Saigon wanted to indefinitely suspend
hostilities and accept the status quo in 1973 =E2=80=94 the former because =
it
remained hellbent on achieving its decades-old ambition of reunifying the
country under an exclusive communist aegis, and the latter since it deemed
the enemy troop presence in its own territory still too substantial and
threatening to its survival. That Nixon was able to convince both
governments to sign a negotiated settlement, imperfect as it was, is quite
remarkable in retrospect. The private assurances he extended to each side
were key in that respect.*

*Nixon and his national security advisor, Henry Kissinger, had a relatively
clear sense of what they were up against from the moment they assumed
responsibility for America=E2=80=99s involvement in Vietnamese affairs. The=
y knew
victory =E2=80=94 or the successful, long-term containment of communism in =
southern
Vietnam =E2=80=94 was impossible after 1969, just as they knew ending Ameri=
can
military involvement honorably was bound to be long and tortuous. For
Nixon, on the one hand, =E2=80=9Cpeace with honor
<https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v38p1/d6>=E2=80=
=9D meant
securing terms that allowed Washington to keep fighting the Cold War
despite the failure of its intervention in Indochina, and on the other, for
Saigon to sustain its battle against communist-led forces in its own
territory, if necessary.*

*Nixon consciously emulated
<https://www.nytimes.com/1973/01/15/archives/an-american-de-gaulle.html> Fr=
ench
President Charles de Gaulle=E2=80=99s diplomatic playbook for Algeria for a=
 reason.
If de Gaulle could extricate France from its colony =E2=80=94 parts of whic=
h
constituted sovereign French territory constitutionally =E2=80=94 and from =
the
astoundingly messy, ill-fated war to retain it while preventing domestic
collapse and safeguarding a measure of French =E2=80=9Cgrandeur,=E2=80=9D t=
hen surely the
American president could accomplish something similar.*

*In their pursuit of an honorable peace, Nixon and Kissinger employed a
carefully calibrated combination of =E2=80=9Ccarrots and sticks=E2=80=9D vi=
s-=C3=A0-vis both
allies and adversaries. They failed =E2=80=94 and failed miserably =E2=80=
=94 to restore
peace in Vietnam and across the rest of the Indochinese Peninsula. But
there is no denying that they salvaged a modicum of national credibility by
ending America=E2=80=99s floundering military enterprise without legally an=
d
formally admitting defeat, extracting meaningful concessions from their
equally astute, sanctimonious, and callous counterparts in Hanoi, and
standing behind Thieu so his government and armed forces could live to
fight another day. In hindsight, Nixon and Kissinger formed a competent,
shrewd, and rational duo whose diplomatic acumen was matched only by their
capacity for ruthlessness, propensity for self-righteousness, and
indifference to human suffering.*

*To be sure, Nixon could have reached a deal with Hanoi as early as his
first year in office, but not without capitulating =E2=80=94 disengaging
=E2=80=9Cunconditionally=E2=80=9D =E2=80=94 and severing all ties to, or ef=
fectively abandoning,
his Vietnamese allies. That remained Hanoi=E2=80=99s only acceptable basis =
for a
settlement until October 1972. All else was detail.*

*Taking into account the agency and intractability of both Vietnamese
sides, which American scholars and analysts rarely do, Nixon and Kissinger
acquitted themselves rather well in the peace process. Their travails were
in vain, but that makes them no less instructive. Indeed, there is much to
be learned from their diplomatic calculations and practices.*

*Above all, Nixon and Kissinger understood that credibility is an important
currency in international relations, and essential in high-stakes
negotiations. Nixon thus preferred acting to talking. He avoided grand,
self-serving public pronouncements. Instead, he carried out meticulously
crafted policies thoughtfully. He understood the delicate nature of
high-stakes diplomacy and thus conducted it secretly or discreetly. He
engaged with both the Soviets and the Chinese =E2=80=94 in total secrecy at=
 first
with the latter
<https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/educational-resources/nixon-china>=
 =E2=80=94
not to score political points at home but to ratchet the pressure on Hanoi
to negotiate earnestly. He did not continually threaten to ferociously bomb
North Vietnam only to back down each time. He did it twice and both times
delivered on his word
<https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/cases/nat-sec/Vietnam/Linebacker-and-the-Law-o=
f-War.html>,
to the consternation of Vietnamese communist authorities and to the delight
of Thieu=E2=80=99s regime. And Kissinger declared =E2=80=9Cpeace is at hand
<https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v09/d73>=E2=80=9D=
 not 40
times, but once. North Vietnamese leaders detested Nixon and Kissinger, a
member of Hanoi=E2=80=99s delegation to the secret Paris talks once told me=
, but
they sure respected them.*

*None of this can be said of the administration of President Donald Trump
and its handling of the talks with Tehran. In fact, there is a striking
contrast between Nixon and Kissinger=E2=80=99s diplomacy and that of the cu=
rrent
executive team. Trump and his entourage may believe that air and missile
strikes hurt and intimidated the Iranian regime, but that clearly failed to
generate the diplomatic leverage they sought, unlike Nixon=E2=80=99s Lineba=
cker and
Linebacker II air campaigns against North Vietnam in 1972
<https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/Visit/Museum-Exhibits/Fact-Sheets/Displa=
y/Article/195841/north-vietnam-linebacker-and-linebacker-ii/>.*

*Fundamentally, the Trump administration has struggled diplomatically
because it squandered the better part of its credibility with tough talk
and posturing that remained just that: talk and posturing. Recurring
threats of civilizational and other forms of annihilation invariably
followed by inaction lose their effectiveness. Combined with public
statements contradicting policy and, on occasion, reality itself, they
irreversibly damage a nation=E2=80=99s prestige and ability to successfully
navigate the treacherous waters of the international system. Conducting
diplomacy through secret backchannels has its drawbacks, but it beats
conducting it on a social media platform. It also helps to rely on seasoned
diplomats rather than inexperienced loyalists.*

*The 14-point Memorandum of Understanding unveiled on June 17
<https://time.com/article/2026/06/17/us-iran-peace-deal-agreement-leaked-dr=
aft-text/>
is
eerily reminiscent of the Paris Agreement in both tone and substance. It is
basically a ceasefire arrangement calling for the immediate end of American
and allied (Israeli) military operations in the region. It promises
=E2=80=9Creconstruction=E2=80=9D aid =E2=80=94 reparations, in effect =E2=
=80=94 to the enemy in the amount
of =E2=80=9Cat least $300 billion,=E2=80=9D which is more than 10 times the=
 sum Nixon
secretly pledged to Hanoi in today=E2=80=99s dollars. It provides a framewo=
rk for
achieving, but does not actually deliver, enduring peace. Most problematic,
and just like the Paris Agreement, it solves none of the differences, the
discord, at the heart of the conflict. Instead, it mandates a new round of
negotiations to reach a =E2=80=9Cfinal deal=E2=80=9D on core matters =E2=80=
=94 in this case, the
=E2=80=9Cfuture administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormu=
z=E2=80=9D and
the fate of Iran=E2=80=99s nuclear enrichment program =E2=80=94 within 60 (=
extendable) days
instead of 90 under the Paris formula.*

*All things being equal, the Memorandum of Understanding marks no victory
for the United States. It is no =E2=80=9Cmajor win
<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/18/donald-trump-iran-deal-react=
ions-anger-relief-incredulity>=E2=80=9D
for the United States, much less an act of =E2=80=9Cunconditional surrender
<https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5931823-donald-trump-defends-i=
ran-agreement/>=E2=80=9D
by Iran. Instead, it confirms the Trump administration=E2=80=99s faulty pla=
nning
and management of the war, and its bungled diplomacy to end it. It is a
stopgap measure, a face-saving solution. It averts capitulation and
conceals humiliation. It provides political cover for a strategic retreat.
In other words, it serves all the functions of the Paris Agreement, the
progeny of a lost war.*

*An off-ramp from an escalating and domestically unpopular war is
admittedly preferable to further escalation. Similarly, the indefinite
reopening of the Strait of Hormuz =E2=80=94 if it happens =E2=80=94 and the=
 partial
obliteration of Iran=E2=80=99s military capabilities =E2=80=94 until Tehran=
 rebuilds them =E2=80=94
have merit. But that is little consolation upon reflection. If anything, it
constitutes a costly return on investment in light of the price in blood
and, especially, treasure for the United States and the attendant lack of
enforceable dividends.*

*Nixon=E2=80=99s private assurances to secure compliance from both allies a=
nd
adversaries were as tangible as they were explicit. Troubles at home
leading to his resignation made them worthless in the end, yet
the documentary record
<https://divergentoptions.org/2019/10/21/u-s-options-to-respond-to-north-vi=
etnams-1973-violations-of-the-paris-peace-accord/>
demonstrates
his readiness to act upon them for a period. More importantly, the
assurances were wholly consistent with his diplomatic style and formed an
integral part of his peace strategy. They were his word, his own personal
guarantees committed to actual paper, bolstered by a record of honoring
that word and delivering on both threats and promises. Hanoi and Saigon
apprehended this.*

*Auxiliary understandings with Iran also exist, Vice President J. D. Vance
has acknowledged
<https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/18/politics/secret-us-iran-proposals>, but are
not written. A settlement whose core terms are variously nebulous,
declarative, and secretive constitutes the very definition of a framework =
=E2=80=94
a poor one at that =E2=80=94 masquerading as a =E2=80=9Cdeal.=E2=80=9D It a=
lso runs counter to the
administration=E2=80=99s own claim to be =E2=80=9Cthe most transparent admi=
nistration in
history
<https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2025/08/who-is-behind-trump-administr=
ation-social-media-posts/>.=E2=80=9D
Such deficits, plus the fact that the public terms are rather favorable to
the opposing side, point to another crucial difference in aptitude and
logic.*

*Unlike Nixon, Trump=E2=80=99s use of the prospect of renewed bombings to e=
ncourage
compliance with the Memorandum of Understanding rings hollow. Empty threats
and broken promises have dramatically eroded his credibility. Moreover,
repeated bluffs have made it amply evident that he is not likely to resume
military operations unless Iran flagrantly violates the Memorandum of
Understanding without cause. The sitting president is obviously hamstrung
by the lack of domestic support for his war, even more so than Nixon was.
North Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Van Dong=E2=80=99s words directed at G=
erald
Ford in 1974, hyperbolic as they were, capture the quandary Trump has
created for himself: =E2=80=9CHe=E2=80=99s the weakest president in U.S. hi=
story=E2=80=A6 [E]ven if
you gave him candy, he doesn=E2=80=99t dare to intervene in Vietnam again
<https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-1995-08-04/html/CREC-1995-08-04-p=
t1-PgH8514.htm>.=E2=80=9D*

*Trump has for all intents and purposes bombed Iran into opening
negotiations for a comprehensive final pact, the kind President Barack
Obama finalized in 2015 with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
<https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/245317.pdf> and which
he, Trump, abrogated. The ultimate irony is that Trump built much of his
case against the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
<https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald=
-j-trump-ending-united-states-participation-unacceptable-iran-deal/>
on
the charge that it concealed undisclosed pacts with Iran. In the final
analysis, he has embraced the same conduct he once condemned to the same
ends: evading public scrutiny and criticism.*

*Nixon inherited the Vietnam War; Trump willingly jumped into the Iran
conflict for reasons as unclear as they are disputed. By official account,
this latest war presumably aimed to eliminate both Iran=E2=80=99s ballistic=
 missile
and nuclear programs
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/03/trump-iran-war=
-rationale-hegseth-rubio/>.
If that was indeed the case, the Memorandum of Understanding is an
admission of failure.*

*The Paris Agreement attests to Nixon=E2=80=99s obduracy, patience, and obs=
ession
with preserving a measure of national prestige under highly unfavorable,
trying circumstances. Conversely, the Memorandum of Understanding reflects
the limits of Trump=E2=80=99s resolve and the extent of his susceptibility =
to
popular, congressional, allied, and economic pressures. Trump has long been
compared to Nixon, at times even seemingly embracing his =E2=80=9Cmadman=E2=
=80=9D posture
<https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxww2kez0go>. But this posture stems
from his mercurial character, not some coherent and logical grand strategy.
When it comes to the exercise of assertive, competent, and resolute
leadership and the conduct of diplomacy along similar lines, Trump does not
hold a candle to Nixon. The latter =E2=80=94 not Ronald Reagan =E2=80=94 mu=
st be =E2=80=9Crolling
over in his grave
<https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/17/trump-republicans-iran-dea=
l>=E2=80=9D
right now.*

*And then there is Israel. Like South Vietnam during the Vietnam War, it
holds important cards, perhaps the most critical of all. Jerusalem shows no
interest in a compromise settlement for the time being, much as Saigon did
then, because it too views the enemy as an enduring existential threat
undiminished by the ceasefire. As Nixon excluded South Vietnam from the
deliberative process with Hanoi =E2=80=94 arguably his greatest diplomatic =
failure
=E2=80=94 Trump has negotiated the Memorandum of Understanding behind Israe=
l=E2=80=99s back
<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/17/us-iran-deal-trump>. In the
end, the exclusion justified Saigon=E2=80=99s obstructionism that contribut=
ed in no
insignificant ways to the prompt resumptions of hostilities in Vietnam,
even as it underscored the limits of American influence over its own
allies. The same may turn out to be true today, making all of this
diplomatic back-and-forth moot. Already, Jerusalem has repeatedly struck at
targets inside Lebanon in violation of both the letter and the spirit of
the Memorandum of Understanding.*

*When it comes to recent armed conflicts, history has not been kind to the
United States. The major wars it has waged since 1945 have almost
invariably fallen short =E2=80=94 sometimes spectacularly so =E2=80=94 of p=
residential
ambitions and expectations. Possession and frequent deployment of the
world=E2=80=99s most expensive, sophisticated, and destructive military hav=
e failed
to translate into an ability to easily and successfully alter the behavior
of =E2=80=9Cbad=E2=80=9D international actors. History sometimes teaches us=
 valuable
lessons, painful as they may be. Unfortunately, Trump and his team have
chosen to ignore them.*

*Pierre Asselin is the Dwight E. Stanford Chair in U.S. Foreign Relations
History at San Diego State University. He speaks Vietnamese and has studied
the Vietnam War on the basis of American, French, and Vietnamese archival
materials for more than three decades. His latest book is Vietnam=E2=80=99s
American War: A New History (2024)
<https://www.amazon.com/Vietnams-American-War-Cambridge-Relations/dp/100922=
9311/>.*

*Image: Robert LeRoy Knudsen via Wikimedia Commons
<https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vietnam_peace_agreement_signing.jp=
g>*

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir=
=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><b style=3D"font-family:georgia,serif;backgro=
und-color:transparent"><a href=3D"https://warontherocks.com/from-vietnam-to=
-iran-wartime-diplomacy-and-secret-deals/" target=3D"_blank">https://waront=
herocks.com/from-vietnam-to-iran-wartime-diplomacy-and-secret-deals/</a></b=
></div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr">=
<div><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b><br></b></font></div><div><h1 style=
=3D"line-height:1.2141em;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0.5em;max-width:100%;=
color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif" size=3D"4"><i>From Vietn=
am to Iran: Wartime Diplomacy and Secret Deals</i></font></h1><div style=3D=
"margin-bottom:1.45em;max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><a href=3D"https:=
//warontherocks.com/author/pierre-asselin/" style=3D"text-decoration:none;m=
argin:0px;color:rgb(27,27,27);max-width:100%;display:inline" target=3D"_bla=
nk"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>Pierre Asselin</b></font></a>=C2=A0 =
=C2=A06/24/26</div><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font fa=
ce=3D"georgia, serif"><b>Wars rarely end in a single act of diplomacy. More=
 often, they pass through a succession of ceasefires, frameworks, understan=
dings, as well as provisional and even secret arrangements before anyone ca=
n determine whether peace is actually at hand. The Trump administration=E2=
=80=99s memorandum with Iran is best understood in those terms. In both for=
m and logic, it recalls an earlier American effort to negotiate an exit fro=
m an unpopular conflict: the Paris Peace Accords of 1973.</b></font></p><p =
style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif">=
<b>The four primary parties to the Vietnam War (1965 to 1975) =E2=80=94 the=
 United States, South Vietnam, North Vietnam, and the Provisional Revolutio=
nary Government of the Republic of Southern Vietnam (popularly known as the=
 Viet Cong) =E2=80=94 signed the<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https://treat=
ies.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20935/volume-935-I-13295-English.pdf=
" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,11=
0,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">Agreement on Ending the War and Re=
storing Peace in Vietnam</a><span>=C2=A0</span>on January 27, 1973. This la=
test agreement was the product of more than four years of semi-public, priv=
ate, and secret talks held in the French capital.</b></font></p><p style=3D=
"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>The a=
greement was neither a comprehensive settlement nor the harbinger of a perm=
anent peace. Rather, it was a ceasefire arrangement providing for the de-Am=
ericanization of hostilities and an exchange of prisoners-of-war and captur=
ed foreign civilians among the signatories. It addressed none of the differ=
ences between Hanoi and Saigon that lay at the heart of the conflict. Inste=
ad, it left them to be resolved among the Vietnamese parties themselves in =
separate, subsequent negotiations to begin immediately after the ceasefire =
took effect on the day of signing. According to<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=
=3D"https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20935/volume-935-I-=
13295-English.pdf" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:non=
e;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">Article 12 of the=
 Paris Agreement</a>, those parties vowed to =E2=80=9Cdo their utmost=E2=80=
=9D to settle their political divergences within 90 days.</b></font></p><p =
style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif">=
<b>Since the Paris Agreement lacked any tangible inducements and enforcemen=
t mechanism, President Richard Nixon made private pledges to both Hanoi and=
 Saigon, aiming to secure their endorsement and compliance. He secretly ple=
dged to North Vietnam=E2=80=99s Prime Minister Pham Van Dong<span>=C2=A0</s=
pan><a href=3D"https://www.nytimes.com/1977/05/20/archives/texts-of-announc=
ement-by-state-department-and-two-nixon-letters.html" rel=3D"noopener noref=
errer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" =
target=3D"_blank">$3.25 billion in =E2=80=9Creconstruction=E2=80=9D aid</a>=
, and to South Vietnam=E2=80=99s President Nguyen Van Thieu,<span>=C2=A0</s=
pan><a href=3D"https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v09=
/d248" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(=
65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">continued military and econom=
ic assistance</a><span>=C2=A0</span>as well as<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D=
"https://www.nytimes.com/1975/04/10/archives/nixon-told-thieu-us-would-reac=
t-to-red-offensive-white-house-says.html" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=
=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_b=
lank">swift and savage retaliatory action against North Vietnam</a><span>=
=C2=A0</span>in the event Hanoi violated the terms of the settlement. Owing=
 to circumstances =E2=80=94 namely, the Watergate scandal but also the Case=
-Church Amendment and War Powers Resolution =E2=80=94 and the fact these we=
re personal guarantees, or =E2=80=9Cgentlemen=E2=80=99s agreements,=E2=80=
=9D valid only as long as Nixon himself was in office =E2=80=94 neither com=
mitment was fulfilled.</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(2=
7,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>The Agreement on Ending the War =
and Restoring Peace in Vietnam is thus misnamed. It ended not a war but Ame=
rica=E2=80=99s direct participation in it. And it delivered not lasting pea=
ce but a framework to achieve it later. In form and substance, the Paris Ag=
reement exposed the shortcomings and ultimate futility of the American mili=
tary project in Southeast Asia.</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;co=
lor:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>As it turns out, neithe=
r Hanoi nor Saigon wanted to indefinitely suspend hostilities and accept th=
e status quo in 1973 =E2=80=94 the former because it remained hellbent on a=
chieving its decades-old ambition of reunifying the country under an exclus=
ive communist aegis, and the latter since it deemed the enemy troop presenc=
e in its own territory still too substantial and threatening to its surviva=
l. That Nixon was able to convince both governments to sign a negotiated se=
ttlement, imperfect as it was, is quite remarkable in retrospect. The priva=
te assurances he extended to each side were key in that respect.</b></font>=
</p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, =
serif"><b>Nixon and his national security advisor, Henry Kissinger, had a r=
elatively clear sense of what they were up against from the moment they ass=
umed responsibility for America=E2=80=99s involvement in Vietnamese affairs=
. They knew victory =E2=80=94 or the successful, long-term containment of c=
ommunism in southern Vietnam =E2=80=94 was impossible after 1969, just as t=
hey knew ending American military involvement honorably was bound to be lon=
g and tortuous. For Nixon, on the one hand, =E2=80=9C<a href=3D"https://his=
tory.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v38p1/d6" rel=3D"noopener nor=
eferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%=
" target=3D"_blank">peace with honor</a>=E2=80=9D meant securing terms that=
 allowed Washington to keep fighting the Cold War despite the failure of it=
s intervention in Indochina, and on the other, for Saigon to sustain its ba=
ttle against communist-led forces in its own territory, if necessary.</b></=
font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"geor=
gia, serif"><b><a href=3D"https://www.nytimes.com/1973/01/15/archives/an-am=
erican-de-gaulle.html" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration=
:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">Nixon conscio=
usly emulated</a><span>=C2=A0</span>French President Charles de Gaulle=E2=
=80=99s diplomatic playbook for Algeria for a reason. If de Gaulle could ex=
tricate France from its colony =E2=80=94 parts of which constituted soverei=
gn French territory constitutionally =E2=80=94 and from the astoundingly me=
ssy, ill-fated war to retain it while preventing domestic collapse and safe=
guarding a measure of French =E2=80=9C<em style=3D"max-width:100%">grandeur=
</em>,=E2=80=9D then surely the American president could accomplish somethi=
ng similar.</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><=
font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>In their pursuit of an honorable peace, Nix=
on and Kissinger employed a carefully calibrated combination of =E2=80=9Cca=
rrots and sticks=E2=80=9D vis-=C3=A0-vis both allies and adversaries. They =
failed =E2=80=94 and failed miserably =E2=80=94 to restore peace in Vietnam=
 and across the rest of the Indochinese Peninsula. But there is no denying =
that they salvaged a modicum of national credibility by ending America=E2=
=80=99s floundering military enterprise without legally and formally admitt=
ing defeat, extracting meaningful concessions from their equally astute, sa=
nctimonious, and callous counterparts in Hanoi, and standing behind Thieu s=
o his government and armed forces could live to fight another day. In hinds=
ight, Nixon and Kissinger formed a competent, shrewd, and rational duo whos=
e diplomatic acumen was matched only by their capacity for ruthlessness, pr=
opensity for self-righteousness, and indifference to human suffering.</b></=
font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"geor=
gia, serif"><b>To be sure, Nixon could have reached a deal with Hanoi as ea=
rly as his first year in office, but not without capitulating =E2=80=94 dis=
engaging =E2=80=9Cunconditionally=E2=80=9D =E2=80=94 and severing all ties =
to, or effectively abandoning, his Vietnamese allies. That remained Hanoi=
=E2=80=99s only acceptable basis for a settlement until October 1972. All e=
lse was detail.</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27=
)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>Taking into account the agency and intr=
actability of both Vietnamese sides, which American scholars and analysts r=
arely do, Nixon and Kissinger acquitted themselves rather well in the peace=
 process. Their travails were in vain, but that makes them no less instruct=
ive. Indeed, there is much to be learned from their diplomatic calculations=
 and practices.</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27=
)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>Above all, Nixon and Kissinger understo=
od that credibility is an important currency in international relations, an=
d essential in high-stakes negotiations. Nixon thus preferred acting to tal=
king. He avoided grand, self-serving public pronouncements. Instead, he car=
ried out meticulously crafted policies thoughtfully. He understood the deli=
cate nature of high-stakes diplomacy and thus conducted it secretly or disc=
reetly. He engaged with both the Soviets and the Chinese =E2=80=94<span>=C2=
=A0</span><a href=3D"https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/educational-re=
sources/nixon-china" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:n=
one;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">in total secrec=
y at first with the latter</a><span>=C2=A0</span>=E2=80=94 not to score pol=
itical points at home but to ratchet the pressure on Hanoi to negotiate ear=
nestly. He did not continually threaten to ferociously bomb North Vietnam o=
nly to back down each time.<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https://biotech.la=
w.lsu.edu/cases/nat-sec/Vietnam/Linebacker-and-the-Law-of-War.html" rel=3D"=
noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);ma=
x-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">He did it twice and both times delivered on=
 his word</a>, to the consternation of Vietnamese communist authorities and=
 to the delight of Thieu=E2=80=99s regime. And Kissinger declared =E2=80=9C=
<a href=3D"https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v09/d73=
" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,11=
0,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">peace is at hand</a>=E2=80=9D not =
40 times, but once. North Vietnamese leaders detested Nixon and Kissinger, =
a member of Hanoi=E2=80=99s delegation to the secret Paris talks once told =
me, but they sure respected them.</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;=
color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>None of this can be s=
aid of the administration of President Donald Trump and its handling of the=
 talks with Tehran. In fact, there is a striking contrast between Nixon and=
 Kissinger=E2=80=99s diplomacy and that of the current executive team. Trum=
p and his entourage may believe that air and missile strikes hurt and intim=
idated the Iranian regime, but that clearly failed to generate the diplomat=
ic leverage they sought, unlike<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https://www.na=
tionalmuseum.af.mil/Visit/Museum-Exhibits/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/19584=
1/north-vietnam-linebacker-and-linebacker-ii/" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" =
style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=
=3D"_blank">Nixon=E2=80=99s Linebacker and Linebacker II air campaigns agai=
nst North Vietnam in 1972</a>.</b></font></p><h5 style=3D"margin:1em 0px;ma=
x-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font size=3D"2" face=3D"georgia, serif">=
</font></h5><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"g=
eorgia, serif"><b>Fundamentally, the Trump administration has struggled dip=
lomatically because it squandered the better part of its credibility with t=
ough talk and posturing that remained just that: talk and posturing. Recurr=
ing threats of civilizational and other forms of annihilation invariably fo=
llowed by inaction lose their effectiveness. Combined with public statement=
s contradicting policy and, on occasion, reality itself, they irreversibly =
damage a nation=E2=80=99s prestige and ability to successfully navigate the=
 treacherous waters of the international system. Conducting diplomacy throu=
gh secret backchannels has its drawbacks, but it beats conducting it on a s=
ocial media platform. It also helps to rely on seasoned diplomats rather th=
an inexperienced loyalists.</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:=
rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>The<span>=C2=A0</span><a hr=
ef=3D"https://time.com/article/2026/06/17/us-iran-peace-deal-agreement-leak=
ed-draft-text/" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;c=
olor:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">14-point Memorandum =
of Understanding unveiled on June 17</a><span>=C2=A0</span>is eerily remini=
scent of the Paris Agreement in both tone and substance. It is basically a =
ceasefire arrangement calling for the immediate end of American and allied =
(Israeli) military operations in the region. It promises =E2=80=9Creconstru=
ction=E2=80=9D aid =E2=80=94 reparations, in effect =E2=80=94 to the enemy =
in the amount of =E2=80=9Cat least $300 billion,=E2=80=9D which is more tha=
n 10 times the sum Nixon secretly pledged to Hanoi in today=E2=80=99s dolla=
rs. It provides a framework for achieving, but does not actually deliver, e=
nduring peace. Most problematic, and just like the Paris Agreement, it solv=
es none of the differences, the discord, at the heart of the conflict. Inst=
ead, it mandates a new round of negotiations to reach a =E2=80=9Cfinal deal=
=E2=80=9D on core matters =E2=80=94 in this case, the =E2=80=9Cfuture admin=
istration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz=E2=80=9D and the fa=
te of Iran=E2=80=99s nuclear enrichment program =E2=80=94 within 60 (extend=
able) days instead of 90 under the Paris formula.</b></font></p><p style=3D=
"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>All t=
hings being equal, the Memorandum of Understanding marks no victory for the=
 United States. It is no =E2=80=9C<a href=3D"https://www.theguardian.com/wo=
rld/2026/jun/18/donald-trump-iran-deal-reactions-anger-relief-incredulity" =
rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,=
210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">major win</a>=E2=80=9D for the Unite=
d States, much less an act of =E2=80=9C<a href=3D"https://thehill.com/homen=
ews/administration/5931823-donald-trump-defends-iran-agreement/" rel=3D"noo=
pener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-w=
idth:100%" target=3D"_blank">unconditional surrender</a>=E2=80=9D by Iran. =
Instead, it confirms the Trump administration=E2=80=99s faulty planning and=
 management of the war, and its bungled diplomacy to end it. It is a stopga=
p measure, a face-saving solution. It averts capitulation and conceals humi=
liation. It provides political cover for a strategic retreat. In other word=
s, it serves all the functions of the Paris Agreement, the progeny of a los=
t war.</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font =
face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>An off-ramp from an escalating and domestically =
unpopular war is admittedly preferable to further escalation. Similarly, th=
e indefinite reopening of the Strait of Hormuz =E2=80=94 if it happens =E2=
=80=94 and the partial obliteration of Iran=E2=80=99s military capabilities=
 =E2=80=94 until Tehran rebuilds them =E2=80=94 have merit. But that is lit=
tle consolation upon reflection. If anything, it constitutes a costly retur=
n on investment in light of the price in blood and, especially, treasure fo=
r the United States and the attendant lack of enforceable dividends.</b></f=
ont></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georg=
ia, serif"><b>Nixon=E2=80=99s private assurances to secure compliance from =
both allies and adversaries were as tangible as they were explicit. Trouble=
s at home leading to his resignation made them worthless in the end, yet th=
e<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https://divergentoptions.org/2019/10/21/u-s-=
options-to-respond-to-north-vietnams-1973-violations-of-the-paris-peace-acc=
ord/" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(6=
5,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">documentary record</a><span>=
=C2=A0</span>demonstrates his readiness to act upon them for a period. More=
 importantly, the assurances were wholly consistent with his diplomatic sty=
le and formed an integral part of his peace strategy. They were his word, h=
is own personal guarantees committed to actual paper, bolstered by a record=
 of honoring that word and delivering on both threats and promises. Hanoi a=
nd Saigon apprehended this.</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:=
rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>Auxiliary understandings wi=
th Iran also exist,<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https://www.cnn.com/2026/0=
6/18/politics/secret-us-iran-proposals" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=
=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_b=
lank">Vice President J. D. Vance has acknowledged</a>, but are not written.=
 A settlement whose core terms are variously nebulous, declarative, and sec=
retive constitutes the very definition of a framework =E2=80=94 a poor one =
at that =E2=80=94 masquerading as a =E2=80=9Cdeal.=E2=80=9D It also runs co=
unter to the administration=E2=80=99s own claim to be =E2=80=9C<a href=3D"h=
ttps://www.motherjones.com/politics/2025/08/who-is-behind-trump-administrat=
ion-social-media-posts/" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decorati=
on:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">the most tr=
ansparent administration in history</a>.=E2=80=9D Such deficits, plus the f=
act that the public terms are rather favorable to the opposing side, point =
to another crucial difference in aptitude and logic.</b></font></p><p style=
=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>Un=
like Nixon, Trump=E2=80=99s use of the prospect of renewed bombings to enco=
urage compliance with the Memorandum of Understanding rings hollow. Empty t=
hreats and broken promises have dramatically eroded his credibility. Moreov=
er, repeated bluffs have made it amply evident that he is not likely to res=
ume military operations unless Iran flagrantly violates the Memorandum of U=
nderstanding without cause. The sitting president is obviously hamstrung by=
 the lack of domestic support for his war, even more so than Nixon was. Nor=
th Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Van Dong=E2=80=99s words directed at Gera=
ld Ford in 1974, hyperbolic as they were, capture the quandary Trump has cr=
eated for himself: =E2=80=9C<a href=3D"https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/=
CREC-1995-08-04/html/CREC-1995-08-04-pt1-PgH8514.htm" rel=3D"noopener noref=
errer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" =
target=3D"_blank">He=E2=80=99s the weakest president in U.S. history=E2=80=
=A6 [E]ven if you gave him candy, he doesn=E2=80=99t dare to intervene in V=
ietnam again</a>.=E2=80=9D</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:r=
gb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>Trump has for all intents an=
d purposes bombed Iran into opening negotiations for a comprehensive final =
pact, the kind President Barack Obama finalized in 2015 with the<span>=C2=
=A0</span><a href=3D"https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/245=
317.pdf" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rg=
b(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">Joint Comprehensive Plan of=
 Action</a><span>=C2=A0</span>and which he, Trump, abrogated. The ultimate =
irony is that<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https://trumpwhitehouse.archives=
.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-ending-united-states-par=
ticipation-unacceptable-iran-deal/" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"te=
xt-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">=
Trump built much of his case against the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action=
</a><span>=C2=A0</span>on the charge that it concealed undisclosed pacts wi=
th Iran. In the final analysis, he has embraced the same conduct he once co=
ndemned to the same ends: evading public scrutiny and criticism.</b></font>=
</p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, =
serif"><b>Nixon inherited the Vietnam War; Trump willingly jumped into the =
Iran conflict for reasons as unclear as they are disputed. By official acco=
unt, this latest war presumably aimed to<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https=
://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/03/trump-iran-war-ratio=
nale-hegseth-rubio/" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:n=
one;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">eliminate both =
Iran=E2=80=99s ballistic missile and nuclear programs</a>. If that was inde=
ed the case, the Memorandum of Understanding is an admission of failure.</b=
></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"g=
eorgia, serif"><b>The Paris Agreement attests to Nixon=E2=80=99s obduracy, =
patience, and obsession with preserving a measure of national prestige unde=
r highly unfavorable, trying circumstances. Conversely, the Memorandum of U=
nderstanding reflects the limits of Trump=E2=80=99s resolve and the extent =
of his susceptibility to popular, congressional, allied, and economic press=
ures. Trump has long been compared to Nixon, at times even seemingly<span>=
=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxww2kez0go" rel=
=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210=
);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">embracing his =E2=80=9Cmadman=E2=80=9D =
posture</a>. But this posture stems from his mercurial character, not some =
coherent and logical grand strategy. When it comes to the exercise of asser=
tive, competent, and resolute leadership and the conduct of diplomacy along=
 similar lines, Trump does not hold a candle to Nixon. The latter =E2=80=94=
 not Ronald Reagan =E2=80=94 must be =E2=80=9C<a href=3D"https://www.thegua=
rdian.com/us-news/2026/jun/17/trump-republicans-iran-deal" rel=3D"noopener =
noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:1=
00%" target=3D"_blank">rolling over in his grave</a>=E2=80=9D right now.</b=
></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"g=
eorgia, serif"><b>And then there is Israel. Like South Vietnam during the V=
ietnam War, it holds important cards, perhaps the most critical of all. Jer=
usalem shows no interest in a compromise settlement for the time being, muc=
h as Saigon did then, because it too views the enemy as an enduring existen=
tial threat undiminished by the ceasefire. As Nixon excluded South Vietnam =
from the deliberative process with Hanoi =E2=80=94 arguably his greatest di=
plomatic failure =E2=80=94<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https://www.theguar=
dian.com/world/2026/jun/17/us-iran-deal-trump" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" =
style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=
=3D"_blank">Trump has negotiated the Memorandum of Understanding behind Isr=
ael=E2=80=99s back</a>. In the end, the exclusion justified Saigon=E2=80=99=
s obstructionism that contributed in no insignificant ways to the prompt re=
sumptions of hostilities in Vietnam, even as it underscored the limits of A=
merican influence over its own allies. The same may turn out to be true tod=
ay, making all of this diplomatic back-and-forth moot. Already, Jerusalem h=
as repeatedly struck at targets inside Lebanon in violation of both the let=
ter and the spirit of the Memorandum of Understanding.</b></font></p><p sty=
le=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>=
When it comes to recent armed conflicts, history has not been kind to the U=
nited States. The major wars it has waged since 1945 have almost invariably=
 fallen short =E2=80=94 sometimes spectacularly so =E2=80=94 of presidentia=
l ambitions and expectations. Possession and frequent deployment of the wor=
ld=E2=80=99s most expensive, sophisticated, and destructive military have f=
ailed to translate into an ability to easily and successfully alter the beh=
avior of =E2=80=9Cbad=E2=80=9D international actors. History sometimes teac=
hes us valuable lessons, painful as they may be. Unfortunately, Trump and h=
is team have chosen to ignore them.</b></font></p><p style=3D"max-width:100=
%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b><em style=3D"max-wi=
dth:100%">Pierre Asselin is the Dwight E. Stanford Chair in U.S. Foreign Re=
lations History at San Diego State University. He speaks Vietnamese and has=
 studied the Vietnam War on the basis of American, French, and Vietnamese a=
rchival materials for more than three decades. His latest book is</em><span=
>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https://www.amazon.com/Vietnams-American-War-Cambr=
idge-Relations/dp/1009229311/" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-de=
coration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">Vietn=
am=E2=80=99s American War: A New History<em style=3D"max-width:100%"><span>=
=C2=A0</span>(2024)</em></a><em style=3D"max-width:100%">.</em></b></font><=
/p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, s=
erif"><b>Image: Robert LeRoy Knudsen via<span>=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https=
://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vietnam_peace_agreement_signing.jpg" rel=
=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"text-decoration:none;color:rgb(65,110,210=
);max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">Wikimedia Commons</a></b></font></p></d=
iv></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></div>

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https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/canberra-and-seoul-can-learn-from-each-ot=
hers-nuclear-submarine-plans/

Canberra and Seoul can learn from each other=E2=80=99s nuclear submarine pl=
ans
19 Jun 2026|Euan Graham
<https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/author/euan-graham/>

Australia and South Korea are both acquiring nuclear-powered attack
submarines, a parallel step-change in their conventional deterrent
capability. Though their discrete pathways to realise this common goal
reflect different strategic circumstances and problems, they can still
usefully learn from each other=E2=80=99s experience and cooperate.

Viewed from Australia, where AUKUS still stirs controversy five years after
the tripartite initiative was announced, South Korea=E2=80=99s recently ann=
ounced
framework to acquire nuclear powered submarines is a refreshing contrast.

Unlike Australia, which is acquiring two different types of nuclear-powered
submarine in close partnership with the United States and Britain,
President Lee Jae Myung=E2=80=99s administration is seeking a largely made-=
in-Korea
solution, with limited assistance from the US.

To be fair, Seoul had no other realistic choice. Despite claims by US
President Donald Trump that Korea=E2=80=99s future nuclear submarines would=
 be
built in Philadelphia, following the surprise announcement on the sidelines
of last October=E2=80=99s APEC summit in Gyeongju, Seoul has since pivoted =
the
project to a more domestic framing. This pragmatic adjustment is essential
to the project=E2=80=99s viability, as the US=E2=80=99s submarine industry =
is currently
struggling to fulfil the US Navy=E2=80=99s order book. Any remaining bandwi=
dth for
allies will be taken up by AUKUS, which includes a commitment to transfer
three used Virginia-class attack submarines to Australia in the 2030s.

Despite obtaining Trump=E2=80=99s all-important consent to develop nuclear
propulsion for naval purposes, it is clear that Seoul will receive less
tangible external assistance than Australia, via AUKUS. US material
assistance for the Korean submarine program is likely to be limited to the
provision of low-enriched uranium fuel, thus minimising weapons
proliferation risks. Seoul still faces the daunting challenge of designing
and building its own naval reactors and propulsion system. Even with a
civil nuclear sector and a sizeable conventional submarine industry serving
as a foundation, this multi-decade undertaking will stretch South Korea=E2=
=80=99s
scientific, industrial and fiscal capacities to their limits.

Given the scale of the challenge, Seoul=E2=80=99s self-confident embrace of=
 the
nuclear submarine project as within its self-reliant grasp is commendable.
This is a challenge that South Korea intends to shoulder without undue
reliance on allies and partners. And it is doing so on a similar timeline
to the new SSN-AUKUS submarines, which are meant to enter service from
around 2040. Although Australia has a five-year headstart on South Korea,
Seoul could even get there first.

South Korea=E2=80=99s willingness to take ownership of the nuclear submarin=
e
program as a national endeavour is the clearest difference from Australia=
=E2=80=99s
submarine optimal pathway under AUKUS, which remains fundamentally
dependent on the ability and willingness of both the US and Britain to
deliver Australia=E2=80=99s future submarine capability. Canberra=E2=80=99s=
 ability to
leverage its closest allies is its main advantage over South Korea, as
Australia lacks the wherewithal to do it alone. But it is also a weakness,
as AUKUS has become an excuse for critics to blame Canberra=E2=80=99s US an=
d
British partners, instead of squarely owning the collective failure of
successive Australian governments to recapitalise the country=E2=80=99s age=
ing
submarine fleet. Furthermore, AUKUS has slipped from being a
whole-of-government endeavour, to one owned and resourced by Defence.

Australia can still offer a much-needed lesson in bipartisanship. For South
Korea=E2=80=99s most likely shortfall for the submarine program is not tech=
nical in
nature, but political. The Lee administration needs to build bipartisan
support, as without this the nuclear submarine project could wither and
fail. Given South Korea=E2=80=99s fractious politics, Lee cannot hope to bi=
nd the
hands of future conservative presidents unless he makes a conscious effort
to build consensus during the remainder of his single term in office. AUKUS
remains divisive in Australia, but it has already survived one change of
government because both major parties have backed it as a cornerstone of
their defence policies =E2=80=93 though the Greens are opposed.

No such bipartisanship exists in South Korea. The ambition to acquire
nuclear-powered submarines has been associated mainly with the left, while
conservative administrations have shown less interest. The costs associated
with nuclear submarines are so great that both sides of politics need a
sense of ownership over this long-term national endeavour, especially given
the glaring absence of any projected cost within the government=E2=80=99s
blueprint. Cancellation would impose serious reputational as well as
financial costs on South Korea.

Though AUKUS and the South Korean nuclear submarine projects are proceeding
on parallel tracks, Canberra and Seoul can still actively cooperate.
Australia=E2=80=99s diplomatic precedent has already been useful for South =
Korea as
it starts to develop non-proliferation safeguards with the International
Atomic Energy Agency. Given North Korea=E2=80=99s increasing nuclear threat=
, along
with China=E2=80=99s strategic buildup, Seoul must work hard to reassure ot=
her
countries that it intends to honour its pledge not to develop nuclear
weapons. Australia has valuable experience to share here and there is scope
for both governments to coordinate their non-proliferation assurances to
nuclear-sceptic Pacific and Southeast Asian nations. Japan will be keeping
a watchful eye on South Korea=E2=80=99s progress, as the country most likel=
y to
follow suit with its own nuclear-propulsion plans in due course.

Finally, Australia and South Korea should step up military cooperation in
submarine and anti-submarine warfare. They may not share all the same
threat perceptions, but there is enough of an operational overlap to be
mutually beneficial. Ultimately, only the aggregation of advanced allied
and partner military capabilities can maintain regional stability and
deterrence.



*This article was originally published in *the Korea Times
<https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/?edition=3Dinternational>.
Author

Euan Graham is a senior fellow at ASPI and an analyst specialising in
Indo-Pacific defence and security, including the Korean Peninsula. He=E2=80=
=99s an
expert associate at the Australian National Security College and adjunct
fellow at the Council on Geostrategy.



Image of Australian and South Korean flags: Oleksii Liskonih/Getty Images
<https://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/photo/south-korea-and-australia-two-=
flags-together-royalty-free-image/1089926764?phrase=3Dkorea%20australia%20f=
lag&searchscope=3Dimage%2Cfilm&adppopup=3Dtrue>
.

--0000000000003d48220655519972
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Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<div dir=3D"ltr"><a href=3D"https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/canberra-and-=
seoul-can-learn-from-each-others-nuclear-submarine-plans/">https://www.aspi=
strategist.org.au/canberra-and-seoul-can-learn-from-each-others-nuclear-sub=
marine-plans/</a><br><div><br></div><div><div class=3D"entry-title" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;font-size:2.75rem=
;line-height:1;color:rgb(176,7,54)">Canberra and Seoul can learn from each =
other=E2=80=99s nuclear submarine plans</div><div class=3D"gmail-meta" date=
time=3D"2026-06-19T06:00:10+10:00" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0p=
x;padding:0px 65px 0px 0px;color:rgb(119,119,119)">19 Jun 2026<span class=
=3D"gmail-divider" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 8px">|</span><=
a href=3D"https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/author/euan-graham/" title=3D"P=
osts by Euan Graham" class=3D"gmail-author gmail-url gmail-fn" rel=3D"autho=
r" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(11=
9,119,119);text-decoration:none;line-height:inherit;font-weight:600">Euan G=
raham</a></div><div class=3D"entry-content" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;=
margin:0px;padding:0px 65px 20px;min-height:260px;color:rgb(39,39,39);font-=
family:source-sans-pro,sans-serif;font-size:16px"><div class=3D"gmail-share=
-buttons-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:20px 0px 0px;padd=
ing:0px;border-left:4px solid rgb(229,234,234)"><div class=3D"gmail-share-b=
uttons" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;padding:10px 0px;backgrou=
nd-color:rgb(229,234,234)"><img class=3D"gmail-alignnone gmail-wp-image-100=
557 gmail-size-full" src=3D"https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/wp-content/up=
loads/2026/06/GettyImages-1089926764-scaled-e1781769122445.jpg" alt=3D"" wi=
dth=3D"2360" height=3D"1433" style=3D"background-color: transparent; box-si=
zing: border-box; border: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto; display: inli=
ne-block; vertical-align: middle;"></div></div><p style=3D"box-sizing:borde=
r-box;margin:0.625rem 0px;padding:0px;font-family:inherit;font-size:1rem;li=
ne-height:1.5">Australia and South Korea are both acquiring nuclear-powered=
 attack submarines, a parallel step-change in their conventional deterrent =
capability. Though their discrete pathways to realise this common goal refl=
ect different strategic circumstances and problems, they can still usefully=
 learn from each other=E2=80=99s experience and cooperate.</p><p style=3D"b=
ox-sizing:border-box;margin:0.625rem 0px;padding:0px;font-family:inherit;fo=
nt-size:1rem;line-height:1.5">Viewed from Australia, where AUKUS still stir=
s controversy five years after the tripartite initiative was announced, Sou=
th Korea=E2=80=99s recently announced framework to acquire nuclear powered =
submarines is a refreshing contrast.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;m=
argin:0.625rem 0px;padding:0px;font-family:inherit;font-size:1rem;line-heig=
ht:1.5">Unlike Australia, which is acquiring two different types of nuclear=
-powered submarine in close partnership with the United States and Britain,=
 President Lee Jae Myung=E2=80=99s administration is seeking a largely made=
-in-Korea solution, with limited assistance from the US.</p><p style=3D"box=
-sizing:border-box;margin:0.625rem 0px;padding:0px;font-family:inherit;font=
-size:1rem;line-height:1.5">To be fair, Seoul had no other realistic choice=
. Despite claims by US President Donald Trump that Korea=E2=80=99s future n=
uclear submarines would be built in Philadelphia, following the surprise an=
nouncement on the sidelines of last October=E2=80=99s APEC summit in Gyeong=
ju, Seoul has since pivoted the project to a more domestic framing. This pr=
agmatic adjustment is essential to the project=E2=80=99s viability, as the =
US=E2=80=99s submarine industry is currently struggling to fulfil the US Na=
vy=E2=80=99s order book. Any remaining bandwidth for allies will be taken u=
p by AUKUS, which includes a commitment to transfer three used Virginia-cla=
ss attack submarines to Australia in the 2030s.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:b=
order-box;margin:0.625rem 0px;padding:0px;font-family:inherit;font-size:1re=
m;line-height:1.5">Despite obtaining Trump=E2=80=99s all-important consent =
to develop nuclear propulsion for naval purposes, it is clear that Seoul wi=
ll receive less tangible external assistance than Australia, via AUKUS. US =
material assistance for the Korean submarine program is likely to be limite=
d to the provision of low-enriched uranium fuel, thus minimising weapons pr=
oliferation risks. Seoul still faces the daunting challenge of designing an=
d building its own naval reactors and propulsion system. Even with a civil =
nuclear sector and a sizeable conventional submarine industry serving as a =
foundation, this multi-decade undertaking will stretch South Korea=E2=80=99=
s scientific, industrial and fiscal capacities to their limits.</p><p style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0.625rem 0px;padding:0px;font-family:inher=
it;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.5">Given the scale of the challenge, Seoul=
=E2=80=99s self-confident embrace of the nuclear submarine project as withi=
n its self-reliant grasp is commendable. This is a challenge that South Kor=
ea intends to shoulder without undue reliance on allies and partners. And i=
t is doing so on a similar timeline to the new SSN-AUKUS submarines, which =
are meant to enter service from around 2040. Although Australia has a five-=
year headstart on South Korea, Seoul could even get there first.</p><p styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0.625rem 0px;padding:0px;font-family:inhe=
rit;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.5">South Korea=E2=80=99s willingness to ta=
ke ownership of the nuclear submarine program as a national endeavour is th=
e clearest difference from Australia=E2=80=99s submarine optimal pathway un=
der AUKUS, which remains fundamentally dependent on the ability and willing=
ness of both the US and Britain to deliver Australia=E2=80=99s future subma=
rine capability. Canberra=E2=80=99s ability to leverage its closest allies =
is its main advantage over South Korea, as Australia lacks the wherewithal =
to do it alone. But it is also a weakness, as AUKUS has become an excuse fo=
r critics to blame Canberra=E2=80=99s US and British partners, instead of s=
quarely owning the collective failure of successive Australian governments =
to recapitalise the country=E2=80=99s ageing submarine fleet. Furthermore, =
AUKUS has slipped from being a whole-of-government endeavour, to one owned =
and resourced by Defence.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0.625=
rem 0px;padding:0px;font-family:inherit;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.5">Aus=
tralia can still offer a much-needed lesson in bipartisanship. For South Ko=
rea=E2=80=99s most likely shortfall for the submarine program is not techni=
cal in nature, but political. The Lee administration needs to build biparti=
san support, as without this the nuclear submarine project could wither and=
 fail. Given South Korea=E2=80=99s fractious politics, Lee cannot hope to b=
ind the hands of future conservative presidents unless he makes a conscious=
 effort to build consensus during the remainder of his single term in offic=
e. AUKUS remains divisive in Australia, but it has already survived one cha=
nge of government because both major parties have backed it as a cornerston=
e of their defence policies =E2=80=93 though the Greens are opposed.</p><p =
style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0.625rem 0px;padding:0px;font-family:=
inherit;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.5">No such bipartisanship exists in So=
uth Korea. The ambition to acquire nuclear-powered submarines has been asso=
ciated mainly with the left, while conservative administrations have shown =
less interest. The costs associated with nuclear submarines are so great th=
at both sides of politics need a sense of ownership over this long-term nat=
ional endeavour, especially given the glaring absence of any projected cost=
 within the government=E2=80=99s blueprint. Cancellation would impose serio=
us reputational as well as financial costs on South Korea.</p><p style=3D"b=
ox-sizing:border-box;margin:0.625rem 0px;padding:0px;font-family:inherit;fo=
nt-size:1rem;line-height:1.5">Though AUKUS and the South Korean nuclear sub=
marine projects are proceeding on parallel tracks, Canberra and Seoul can s=
till actively cooperate. Australia=E2=80=99s diplomatic precedent has alrea=
dy been useful for South Korea as it starts to develop non-proliferation sa=
feguards with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Given North Korea=E2=
=80=99s increasing nuclear threat, along with China=E2=80=99s strategic bui=
ldup, Seoul must work hard to reassure other countries that it intends to h=
onour its pledge not to develop nuclear weapons. Australia has valuable exp=
erience to share here and there is scope for both governments to coordinate=
 their non-proliferation assurances to nuclear-sceptic Pacific and Southeas=
t Asian nations. Japan will be keeping a watchful eye on South Korea=E2=80=
=99s progress, as the country most likely to follow suit with its own nucle=
ar-propulsion plans in due course.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;mar=
gin:0.625rem 0px;padding:0px;font-family:inherit;font-size:1rem;line-height=
:1.5">Finally, Australia and South Korea should step up military cooperatio=
n in submarine and anti-submarine warfare. They may not share all the same =
threat perceptions, but there is enough of an operational overlap to be mut=
ually beneficial. Ultimately, only the aggregation of advanced allied and p=
artner military capabilities can maintain regional stability and deterrence=
.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0.625rem 0px;padding:0px;font=
-family:inherit;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.5">=C2=A0</p><p style=3D"box-s=
izing:border-box;margin:0.625rem 0px;padding:0px;font-family:inherit;font-s=
ize:1rem;line-height:1.5"><em style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-height:in=
herit">This article was originally published in=C2=A0</em><a href=3D"https:=
//www.koreatimes.co.kr/?edition=3Dinternational" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"n=
oopener" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:=
rgb(176,7,54);text-decoration:none;line-height:inherit">the Korea Times</a>=
.</p></div><div class=3D"entry-author gmail-blue-border-bottom" style=3D"bo=
x-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;padding:0px 0px 20px;border-bottom:5px solid=
 rgb(229,234,234);color:rgb(39,39,39);font-family:source-sans-pro,sans-seri=
f;font-size:16px"><div class=3D"gmail-label gmail-author" style=3D"box-sizi=
ng:border-box;margin:70px 0px 0px;padding:0px;background:rgb(187,187,187);l=
ine-height:42px;text-transform:uppercase;color:rgb(255,255,255);font-weight=
:600;width:70px;text-align:center"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">Au=
thor</span></div><div class=3D"gmail-author-bio" style=3D"box-sizing:border=
-box;margin:0px 65px 0px 0px;padding:0px 0px 0px 62px"><div class=3D"gmail-=
inner" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;padding:10px 20px;backgrou=
nd:rgb(229,234,234);min-height:70px"><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;marg=
in:0px;padding:0px;font-family:inherit;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.5"><spa=
n style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-weight:600;line-height:inherit">Euan =
Graham</span>=C2=A0is a senior fellow at ASPI and an analyst specialising i=
n Indo-Pacific defence and security, including the Korean Peninsula. He=E2=
=80=99s an expert associate at the Australian National Security College and=
 adjunct fellow at the Council on Geostrategy.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:bo=
rder-box;margin:0px;padding:0px;font-family:inherit;font-size:1rem;line-hei=
ght:1.5">=C2=A0</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;padding:0px=
;font-family:inherit;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.5">Image of Australian an=
d South Korean flags:=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail=
/photo/south-korea-and-australia-two-flags-together-royalty-free-image/1089=
926764?phrase=3Dkorea%20australia%20flag&amp;searchscope=3Dimage%2Cfilm&amp=
;adppopup=3Dtrue" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener" style=3D"box-sizing:bo=
rder-box;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(176,7,54);text-decoration:n=
one;line-height:inherit">Oleksii Liskonih/Getty Images</a>.</p></div></div>=
</div></div></div>

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Subject: [Salon] The Unraveling of Afghan Asylum
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The Unraveling of Afghan Asylum
Tanvi Misra <https://www.nybooks.com/contributors/tanvi-misra/>

June 28, 2026
Afghan asylum seekers fled a crisis the US had a direct role in
fomenting=E2=80=94only to become targets in Trump=E2=80=99s immigration cra=
ckdown.

Olivier Douliery/AFP/Getty Images

Afghan refugees waiting in a bus at Dulles International Airport, Virginia,
August 27, 2021

Afees Monsef has a grave magnetism that makes him easy to find, even in a
crowd.1
<https://www.nybooks.com/online/2026/06/28/the-unraveling-of-afghan-asylum/=
?printpage=3Dtrue#fn-1>
We
first met in the spring of 2025, at a gathering in the basement of the
Hazrati Abu Bakr Siddique mosque in Flushing, two years after he and his
family of eight crossed the US=E2=80=93Mexico border fleeing persecution by=
 the
Taliban. By the time we reunited this past March, at an iftar dinner hosted
in Brooklyn by the grassroots organization Afghans For A Better Tomorrow,
Monsef and his family had taken substantive steps toward building a life in
the US; with support from a state program, they were about to move from a
hotel shelter in the city to a house in Westchester. He and his wife both
had jobs. Their two eldest children=E2=80=94both girls=E2=80=94were in coll=
ege.

And yet the Trump administration kept putting new restrictions in their
path. The judge assigned to their case was among the many that the federal
government has fired
<https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/us/politics/trump-miller-immigration-ju=
dges-purge.html>
since
Trump retook office. Last fall the administration=E2=80=99s leading immigra=
tion
bureaucrat announced
<https://x.com/USCISJoe/status/1994545007588774347?lang=3Den> an indefinite
pause on approving asylum applications filed with his agency, including
that of Monsef=E2=80=99s family, among other petitions in the pipeline for =
visas
and immigration benefits. Then Immigration and Customs Enforcement started
detaining Afghans in the city with pending asylum applications, many of
whom had already been detained after crossing the border. =E2=80=9CWe don=
=E2=80=99t know
what we can do,=E2=80=9D Monsef told me on the phone in March. =E2=80=9CIt =
is a kind of
unknown future.=E2=80=9D

Monsef was born into a Shia Muslim family from the Hazara ethnic minority.
Both groups were targeted under the Taliban, whose forces tortured Monsef=
=E2=80=99s
father, a well-known community leader, when Monsef was young. Monsef came
of age shortly after the Taliban fell during the US-led invasion in 2001,
and after getting his degree he worked for the Afghan government as a civil
engineer on projects funded by the US. That alone, he knew, made him and
his family into targets when, in 2021, the Taliban returned to power.

With his wife, their six children, and his elderly mother, Monsef traveled
around the world to the Americas, then made his way up, mostly on foot, to
the US=E2=80=93Mexico border. The journey was an extreme ordeal. During the=
 walk
through the notorious jungles of the Darien Gap, one of the deadliest land
migration routes
<https://www.cfr.org/articles/crossing-darien-gap-migrants-risk-death-journ=
ey-us>
in
the world, Monsef at times held two of his younger children in his arms. At
one point in their hike his elderly mother collapsed; she was unconscious
for over an hour. It was so physically arduous that he sometimes felt he
might not be able to push through.

When Monsef and his family finally crossed into San Diego, in the spring of
2023, they felt an immediate flush of relief, he told me. They thought they
were safe: =E2=80=9CWe were not thinking about what will happen after.=E2=
=80=9D Soon
advocates in New York City arranged to fly them to the East Coast.

Among the advocates who came to help the family was Arash Azizzada, who
founded Afghans for a Better Tomorrow in 2021 to coordinate the
resettlement of Afghans who were evacuated after the US withdrawal. In
early 2023, when Republican governors in border states started bussing
migrants into New York City as a political ploy, Azizzada and other
volunteers began showing up at Port Authority to greet them, set them up
with legal assistance, give them a sense of community, and arrange other
forms of mutual aid. Their first order of business was handing out cell
phones. Some of the refugees they helped would later chip in to support
others.

The Afghans who came through the southern border under Biden were a
particularly vulnerable crowd, Azizzada said in an email when he first
wrote to me in early 2024. Being asylum seekers who had crossed the border,
often without permission, they didn=E2=80=99t qualify for certain benefits
typically extended to resettled refugees. Nor did they all have a clear
path to citizenship that took into account their special circumstances as
people who had fled not just a shared enemy but a situation the United
States had a direct role in fomenting. Because of new rules the Biden
administration implemented at the time, if migrants crossed without an
appointment on a glitchy app, they were barred from seeking asylum
altogether (although they could still pursue certain other types of
protections). These policies were already hurting asylum seekers, and
Azizzada worried that a second Trump administration could spell disaster
for Afghans, among other new arrivals. Two years later, the disaster is
unfolding as a slow burn.

The US, which signed the international protocol on refugees in 1968, has an
obligation to all asylum seekers when they arrive at or enter its borders:
it cannot, by law, return them to harm. The right to asylum was formalized
into US law in 1980, almost three decades after it was codified into
international law as a response to the mass displacement caused by the
Holocaust. It has never been fairly and consistently implemented, and it
almost immediately came under attack
<https://jewishcurrents.org/the-death-of-asylum>. In the decades since,
successive presidents=E2=80=94both Democratic and Republican=E2=80=94have b=
oth made it much
more dangerous <https://cmsny.org/publications/jmhs-enemy-territory/> for
people fleeing persecution to arrive at US borders in the first place and
chipped away at the due process
<https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/obama-s-rocket-docket-immigration-hea=
rings-violate-due-process-experts-n672636>
they
can access inside the US if they manage to enter. (Accessing asylum
requires the applicant=E2=80=99s presence on US soil, and anyone can, at le=
ast on
paper, legally request it regardless of how they enter the country.) Asylum
law was created for people fleeing political persecution and excluded
so-called economic migrants, but in reality these were never mutually
exclusive categories, as the historian Mae Ngai has explained in these page=
s
<https://www.nybooks.com/online/2025/10/12/the-end-of-asylum/>. And yet
under Trump, Ngai writes, even this flawed protection has been dissolved
=E2=80=9Cfor cynical ends.=E2=80=9D No matter how deserving a migrant is un=
der the law,
they remain a target.

In his first term Trump launched an escalating assault on asylum. During
the pandemic he started turning away asylum seekers at the border, citing
public health reasons. On the campaign trail Biden vowed to bring back
humanity to the southern border, but once he entered the White House he
retained and even expanded this Trump-era ban. Human Rights First
documented around 13,500 cases
<https://humanrightsfirst.org/library/human-rights-stain-public-health-farc=
e/>
of
murder, rape, and other violence against migrants who were blocked or
turned back under this policy after Biden took office. Biden also, for the
first time ever, put numerical limits
<https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/biden-order-restricts-how-many-migrants-=
can-seek-asylum-at-southern-border>
on
how many people could seek asylum at the southern border. These policies
meant that =E2=80=9Cmore people will die, or face persecution and abuse, af=
ter they
are blocked from accessing safety,=E2=80=9D Heidi Altman, the vice presiden=
t of
policy at the National Immigration Law Center, said
<https://www.nilc.org/resources/how-the-biden-administrations-expanded-asyl=
um-ban-puts-lives-at-risk-and-contradicts-american-values/>
in
September 2024.

When Trump returned to office in 2025 he shut down the entry of all
migrants=E2=80=94including asylum seekers=E2=80=94by declaring an =E2=80=9C=
invasion
<https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/litigation/challenging-shutdown=
-asylum-access-ports-entry/>=E2=80=9D
at the southern border. An appeals court recently blocked
<https://www.npr.org/2026/04/24/g-s1-118707/trump-asylum-ban-us-mexico-bord=
er-illegal>
this
measure, but this past week the Supreme Court issued a decision in a
separate case allowing the administration to restrict asylum in other ways.
Over the past year and a half, meanwhile, the Trump administration has
developed a range of methods to weaponize a system already stacked against
asylum seekers, cancelling many existing pathways and protections and
rushing to deport people, including asylum seekers with pending cases. To
an unprecedented degree, many have been sent to third countries with which
they had no ties, from Panama to Ghana.

The Afghans caught up in this dragnet are not legally distinct from other
types of asylum seekers: they have to demonstrate the same asylum
paperwork, and they remain subject to the same border policies and shifts
in courtroom due process. But because they come from a country in which the
United States has directly waged war, the US government has a special
obligation toward them. At the same time, it also scrutinizes them from a
particular, racialized point of view that developed in the years after
September 11. The US occupied Afghanistan for twenty years as one of the
crucial arenas in its War on Terror, muddling on with its attempt at regime
change and counterinsurgency. Faced with political instability at home,
thousands of Afghans fled, many to the country that had sold itself as a
haven of democracy and opportunity while it invaded and further
destabilized theirs. Between 2000 and 2019 the Afghan immigrant population
in the US almost tripled, from 45,000 to 132,000
<https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/afghan-immigrants-united-states-20=
19>,
according to the Migration Policy Institute. All this gives the current
suspension of protections for Afghan asylum seekers an especially cruel
tinge.

During Trump=E2=80=99s first-term crackdown Afghans flew somewhat =E2=80=9C=
under the
radar,=E2=80=9D Azizzada told me in a recent interview; perhaps because the=
y were
seen as useful to the War on Terror, they weren=E2=80=99t a primary target.=
 That
started to change after Biden pulled US troops out of Afghanistan in 2021,
quickly reversing any meager gains the US may have made during its longest
war. As the Taliban regained control, the hastily planned evacuation
<https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/us-government-rush-evacuate-afghan=
-allies-allocate-special-visas>
efforts
left Afghans who had worked with the US scrambling
<https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/14/forget-the-visas-the-scramble-is-=
on-to-save-afghan-partners-as-taliban-closes-in-504582>
to
get on planes leaving Kabul. Reports from the time showed Afghans clinging
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DItjlpO9kJMM> to a military aircraft=E2=
=80=99s
landing gears as the plane taxied towards takeoff; at least seven people
died <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61799998?st_source=3Dai_mode=
> in
the process. For days people rushed at the perimeter of the airport=E2=80=
=94which
was manned by US Marines=E2=80=94waving their IDs and pleading to board. =
=E2=80=9CEleven
years, I worked with the CIA,=E2=80=9D one man said
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DgkUzANwEvxM> in English to the PBS
correspondent Jane Ferguson, showing his paperwork. =E2=80=9CNo one is lett=
ing me
in.=E2=80=9D

After facing criticism
<https://www.huffpost.com/entry/refugee-groups-joe-biden-afghanistan_n_611c=
0f6ce4b0e5b5d8e3c948>
from
advocates and Democrats in Congress, Biden announced a program
<https://www.dhs.gov/archive/operation-allies-welcome> that would allow
vulnerable Afghans who had already undergone vetting to enter the US. They
would have temporary permission to stay as they waited to be processed for
special visas meant for those who helped US forces during the war=E2=80=94o=
r for
asylum, if they were eligible. A year later, the program was renamed and
reoriented <https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/01/politics/afghan-resettlement> to=
ward
a longer-term approach, offering Afghans who had been evacuated to US bases
in Qatar and elsewhere fast-track refugee resettlement and a chance to
obtain special visas.

Since the withdrawal, meanwhile, advocates had been doubling down on
getting Congress to pass legislation guaranteeing a permanent pathway to
citizenship for Afghans allied with the US. In 2024 Senator Jerry Moran of
Kansas, then the top Republican on the Senate Veterans=E2=80=99 Affairs Com=
mittee,
joined Amy Klobuchar to introduce an amendment along these lines in a
national security package after Republicans blocked a broader border
legislation that included the provision. =E2=80=9CAfter the chaotic withdra=
wal from
Afghanistan, veterans extended the creed =E2=80=98leave no man behind=E2=80=
=99 and helped
their Afghan partners flee to the United States for safety,=E2=80=9D Moran =
said in
a statement
<https://www.moran.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/news-releases?ID=3D1EC90BE0-=
609F-4728-90FB-C2EDA9FFE69E>
at
the time. =E2=80=9CUnfortunately, many of our Afghan partners are still ove=
rseas,
and those who made it to the US face uncertainty as to whether they will be
granted permanent residency.=E2=80=9D
<https://www.nybooks.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Misra202606_2.jpeg>

Ed Jones/AFP/Getty Images

Advocates protesting in favor of creating residency pathways for Afghans
after the Taliban=E2=80=99s return to power, New York City, August 28, 2021

Moran saw securing a place in the US for Afghan allies as a matter of
national security. =E2=80=9CIt sends a message to our allies that we=E2=80=
=99re dependable
and a message to our adversaries that we=E2=80=99re united,=E2=80=9D he tol=
d the military
newspaper *Stars and Stripes*
<https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2024-02-08/afghan-allies-senate-legisl=
ation-veterans-groups-12943661.html>.
But hardline Republicans, notably Chuck Grassley and Tom Cotton in the
Senate, have refused to back bills with a citizenship pathway for Afghans
unless they include more vetting and higher-order asylum restrictions at
the border, arguing that Biden=E2=80=99s evacuation efforts prioritized has=
te
instead of security. As evidence, they have pointed
<https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/grassley-continues-prob=
e-of-biden-harris-administrations-failure-to-properly-vet-afghan-evacuees>
 to oversight reports
<https://www.oig.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/assets/2022-09/OIG-22-64-Sep22=
-Redacted.pdf>
finding
that US authorities did not always have data to fully vet admitted Afghans.
A 2022 report found that two of the parole program=E2=80=99s beneficiaries =
(out of
tens of thousands) =E2=80=9Cmay have posed a risk to national security.=E2=
=80=9D A 2025
audit of the FBI=E2=80=99s role in the process found that fifty-five evacue=
es were
on watchlists, but that the agency =E2=80=9Ceffectively communicated and ad=
dressed
any potential national security risks=E2=80=9D overall. The federal governm=
ent has
emphasized that these people were among the most vetted
<https://www.npr.org/2025/11/27/nx-s1-5622991/afghan-refugee-program-nation=
al-guard-shooting-suspect>
immigrants,
screened by counterterrorism departments and the FBI.

On the other hand, many advocates have noted that the government=E2=80=99s =
approach
to Afghan resettlement was not just uniquely stringent but willfully
sluggish, especially in contrast with the reception of Ukrainian refugees
fleeing the Russian invasion around the same time. The few existing
pathways sometimes closed for nebulous reasons, even after months of
agonizing waiting, and even for those Afghan families
<https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/09/17/afghanistan-visa-family-=
00113267>
who
seemed to otherwise present a slam-dunk case. Moran and Klobuchar=E2=80=99s=
 2024
proposal was never included in the final national-security package,
and subsequent
legislative efforts
<https://forumtogether.org/article/bill-summary-afghan-adjustment-legislati=
on/>
to
create new pathways to citizenship for Afghans have been similarly bogged
down. Earlier this year, Politico reported that House Speaker Mike
Johnson quietly
stripped
<https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/09/johnson-cut-provisions-afghan-rel=
ocation-ndaa-00683378>
language
that would continue relocation efforts for Afghans from the 2025 National
Defense Authorization Act. Even in 2026, five years after the withdrawal,
some evacuees were still waiting to be resettled at the Camp As-Sayliyah
military base in Doha, Qatar. When the US launched its war in Iran, many of
them <https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2lrke1wjdyo> were stranded as
debris from Iran=E2=80=99s retaliatory fire rained down
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Djuxmn-slOPg>.

Advocates also note that translators and other Afghans who worked directly
with the US government were not the only ones whose lives were touched
by=E2=80=94and continue to be affected by=E2=80=94US policies at home and a=
broad. Both the
ground evacuation efforts and Biden=E2=80=99s special admission programs
prioritized people allied with US war efforts, at least on paper
<https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/majority-afghan-allies-may-have=
-missed-out-airlift-us-official-2021-09-01/>.
Bipartisan legislative pushes in Congress like the Afghan Adjustment Act
(which attempted to create a pathway to citizenship and formed the basis of
Moran and Klobuchar=E2=80=99s failed amendment) and the Enduring Welcome Ac=
t (which
sought to continue resettlement efforts) have also emphasized the US=E2=80=
=99s
obligations to those who helped its service members=E2=80=94to =E2=80=9Cpro=
tect those who
protected us, and preserve our nation=E2=80=99s credibility for future
generations,=E2=80=9D as Representative Mike Lawler, a Republican, said
<https://kamlager-dove.house.gov/media/press-releases/kamlager-dove-lawler-=
titus-mccaul-introduce-bipartisan-legislation-uphold>
when
introducing that second piece of legislation in August 2025.

This left many asylum seekers without recourse. =E2=80=9CThere were activis=
ts, or
just people who have marginalized identities, or ordinary Afghans who were
impacted=E2=80=94as everyone was=E2=80=94by US foreign policy,=E2=80=9D sai=
d Laila Ayub of Project
ANAR (Afghan Network for Advocacy and Resources), which started in 2021 to
provide legal support to Afghans. =E2=80=9CWe really view everyone as equal=
ly
deserving of protection.=E2=80=9D Those who were not immediately evacuated =
on US
flights and who couldn=E2=80=99t risk waiting in Afghanistan for the months=
long
refugee resettlement process fled to Pakistan or Iran=E2=80=94but they face=
d long
delays there, during which they remained vulnerable to deportations. Many
Afghans who were not eligible for special pathways to the US or who hit
bureaucratic snags in these or other third countries eventually tried to
make it to the US southern border and request asylum. When Trump retook
office those waiting abroad saw their cases grind to a halt, and those who
did make it found themselves caught in a political storm of their own.

After arriving in New York, Monsef and his family spent a few months at the
Roosevelt Hotel in Manhattan, where thousands of new migrants from around
the world were being housed. (Starting last spring the Trump administration
targeted <https://www.fox5ny.com/news/trump-fema-migrant-funds-nyc> this
shelter in particular, describing the hotel as a base for Salvadoran gang
operations and announcing that it would pull millions
<https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5141719-fema-funding-new-york=
-city-migrant-housing/>
in
emergency management funding that allowed the city to use the building as
temporary housing for the new arrivals.) After Roosevelt, Monsef=E2=80=99s =
family
lived for a year and a half at another hotel shelter that was smaller, less
crowded, and, in Monsef=E2=80=99s view, more hospitable.

But the shelter system still denied them a sense of agency and stability.
They couldn=E2=80=99t cook their own food or even make their own tea; the
government meals were bland and unappetizing; it wasn=E2=80=99t clear if th=
e meat
was halal. Only when Monsef got approved by a New York state initiative
supporting the resettlement of migrants outside the city and moved to a
single-family home, he told me, did he feel he had taken the =E2=80=9Cfirst=
 step of
starting my life in the US.=E2=80=9D

In the suburbs Monsef had a backyard where his younger kids could play. The
neighbors were friendly, and the family could finally buy groceries and
cook their own meals. After an initial struggle, Monsef found a job suited
to his training as an engineer; his wife also got part-time employment in
food service. His oldest daughter, whose schooling was interrupted by their
journey out of Afghanistan, graduated high school but couldn=E2=80=99t find=
 a way
into the elite colleges to which she had aspired. She started at community
college. The second-oldest, who commuted every day to high school in the
city, got into Georgetown.

And yet the family=E2=80=99s future remained unsettled. Throughout 2025 the=
 Trump
administration shut down legal pathways to the US and intensified
restrictions on Afghan and other migrants. On January 20 Trump suspended
the refugee program, pulling over a thousand Afghans
<https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-canceling-flights-ne=
arly-1660-afghan-refugees-say-us-2025-01-20/>
already
cleared to travel to the US off of flights. Then, in February, Trump=E2=80=
=99s
Department of Homeland Security started terminating Temporary Protected
Status and similar safeguards, which are given to people from countries
that have suffered natural disasters or conflict, starting with Venezuela
and Haiti. In May it terminated
<https://immpolicytracking.org/policies/reported-dhs-to-end-tps-for-afghans=
/#/tab-policy-documents>
TPS
for Afghanistan. (The administration has since also announced the end of
TPS and a similar program known as Deferred Enforced Departure for people
from several other countries, including South Sudan, Honduras, Palestine,
and Yemen.)
<https://www.nybooks.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Misra202606_3.jpeg>

Boris Roessler/Picture Alliance/Getty Images

Afghan refugees sheltering at an American airbase in Germany awaiting their
flights to the US, Ramstein, October 9, 2021

Monsef=E2=80=99s TPS expired in May 2025, making him more vulnerable to
deportation. His family had also applied for asylum, and they could legally
stay and work in the country as long as their application was pending. But
the process was drawn-out: Monsef=E2=80=99s first court appearance was sche=
duled
for 2028 until his lawyer got it moved up to March of this year.

More restrictions on Afghan migrants followed, with particularly dire
consequences for those who still had close family outside the US. In the
summer, the president announced travel restrictions
<https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/06/restricting-the-en=
try-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-united-states-from-foreign-terroris=
ts-and-other-national-security-and-public-safety-threats/>
for
twelve countries, including Afghanistan (although still with narrow
exceptions for special visas meant to bring in allied Afghans). Soon after,
the State Department started denying final travel documents for family
members of Afghan asylees already in the US whose own =E2=80=9Cderivative=
=E2=80=9D asylum
cases had been remotely approved. The International Refugee Assistance
Project sued
<https://refugeerights.org/news-resources/a-a-et-al-v-united-states-departm=
ent-of-state-challenging-the-state-departments-unlawful-denials-to-afghan-a=
sylee-family-members>,
arguing that the travel ban did not apply to this subset of Afghans, and
secured a temporary block. Recently a judge rejected
<https://refugeerights.org/news-resources/federal-judge-rules-afghan-allies=
-can-sue-trump-administration-for-banning-family-members-from-the-united-st=
ates>
the
government=E2=80=99s request to throw out the case.

=E2=80=9CThese were lawful pathways that were already set up, and what we s=
ee time
and time again is the Trump administration cutting them off,=E2=80=9D Pedro
Sepulveda of IRAP told me in an interview. As the case winds its way
through an already circuitous legal process=E2=80=94made even more so by re=
peated
government shutdowns in the US=E2=80=94the plaintiffs continue to suffer. S=
ome
remain in Afghanistan, fearing for their lives from the Taliban, while
a regional
conflict with Pakistan escalates
<https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yxkj8gnr2o>. =E2=80=9CAt the core of t=
his,
it=E2=80=99s really about family reunification,=E2=80=9D Sepulveda says. =
=E2=80=9CWe see a complete
abandonment of Afghans, entirely.=E2=80=9D

In September, as federal agents were conducting targeted raids around the
state, Azizzada could claim a small victory: the government notified some
families that their asylum cases had been approved. Among them was Nabila
Mirjan, a thirty-year-old single mother I had met at the same 2025 mosque
event where I first crossed paths with Monsef. A survivor of gender-based
violence who had worked in Afghanistan at organizations for women=E2=80=99s=
 rights,
Mirjan spent a year in Iran with her family after fleeing the Taliban
before traveling to Brazil and then=E2=80=94with her young son, adult broth=
er, and
sister=E2=80=94to the US border. (Three of her brothers and her elderly par=
ents
stayed behind in Brazil.) Upon entering the country in San Ysidro her
brother was detained for seventy-five days, at which point he was released
and told to attend his asylum court hearings and scheduled ICE check-ins.
When we met, Mirjan was living at the Roosevelt Hotel with her six-year-old
son and her sister, wondering where they would go once the city phased out
its migrant shelters
<https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2025/01/mayor-adams-new-round-migra=
nt-shelter-closures-including-one-city-s-largest>,
as it had announced it would.

By the time I saw her again at the church iftar event in 2026, she had
become a more confident English speaker. She now has a part-time job, and
her son is getting used to life in the city, although he still has
separation anxiety and cries from time to time because he misses his
grandparents and uncles. She too is getting used to the US, but only after
adjusting her expectations. When she first decided to come to America, she
thought =E2=80=9Call my dreams will turn to reality,=E2=80=9D she told me. =
=E2=80=9CWhen I came
here, I saw that that is not true. It=E2=80=99s not easy.=E2=80=9D

Last November the footing of Afghan asylum seekers already in the US got
even more precarious. That month an Afghan man who had worked alongside the
C.I.A. and previously been granted asylum in the US fatally shot
<https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79r2n3j5dyo> a National Guard member in
Washington, D.C., and injured another. When Monsef heard the news, he
called his daughter at Georgetown and told her not to go out in case there
was retaliatory violence against Afghans.

News reports suggested that the shooter was struggling with mental illness,
but the Trump administration used the killing as a pretense both to impose
a spate of new measures against Afghans and to initiate a crackdown for
which the foundation had already been laid. Just days before the shooting,
the administration had announced that it would be reviewing refugee cases
already approved under Biden. Now, however, the Homeland Security agency
that considers asylum applications announced that it was halting
<https://www.cbsnews.com/news/national-guard-shooting-dc-us-asylum-decision=
s-pause/>
processing
for all the asylum applications in its pipeline. It also suspended
green-card and other immigration cases for countries subject to Trump=E2=80=
=99s
travel ban, which had been announced in June 2025 and later expanded
<https://www.asianlawcaucus.org/news-resources/guides-reports/explainer-faq=
-expanded-travel-and-immigration-ban>.
When we spoke in March, the IRAP attorney Laurie Ball Cooper said that this
=E2=80=9Cuse of the travel ban domestically=E2=80=9D was =E2=80=9Cunprecede=
nted.=E2=80=9D In essence, she
continued, it was a =E2=80=9Cracist deployment of nationality as a restrict=
ion on
immigration,=E2=80=9D a tactic with its source in =E2=80=9Cthe earliest roo=
ts of US
immigration law.=E2=80=9D

In New York City, ICE started calling Afghans waiting for their court dates
and demanding they show up for non-routine check-ins, then arresting single
men who arrived for their appointments. Among the first cases Azizzada got
wind of in the area was that of Mirjan=E2=80=99s twenty-year-old brother, w=
ho was
taken into custody at a check-in at 26 Federal Plaza on December 2. That
evening Mirjan called Azizzada crying. Her brother=E2=80=99s first detentio=
n had
been hard enough: by the time they reunited that time, she remembers, he
had lost his appetite and developed a restless gait.

Two weeks later, with the help of a lawyer that Azizzada=E2=80=99s team hel=
ped
find, her brother was released again. The family huddled together on a
video conference with their siblings and parents in Brazil. =E2=80=9CSome o=
f us
were crying with joy,=E2=80=9D Mirjan told me over Whatsapp, translating he=
r
thoughts through an AI app. =E2=80=9CMy brother couldn=E2=80=99t speak.=E2=
=80=9D

One of the next major threats to recent Afghan arrivals emerged not in New
York but in Minnesota. In January 2026, as federal agents descended on the
state, lawyers started noticing a disturbing trend: refugees who had
already been approved but had not yet received their green cards were being
detained. Again IRAP sued
<https://refugeerights.org/news-resources/u-h-a-v-bondi-challenging-the-tru=
mp-administrations-detention-of-refugees-in-minnesota>
on
behalf of plaintiffs=E2=80=94including some Afghans=E2=80=94who reported be=
ing swept up by
masked agents, handcuffed, and aggressively shoved into unmarked vehicles.
They were shuffled from building to building without being able to make a
call, then put on a plane in shackles and taken out of the state. Some were
released days later, on strange streets, far from home.

In February the judge responded to IRAP=E2=80=99s lawsuit by ordering a tem=
porary
pause to this practice. Government court filings in the proceedings
<https://refugeerights.org/news-resources/lkt-in-newly-released-memo-dhs-cl=
aims-authority-to-detain-any-refugee-who-has-not-applied-for-a-green-card-a=
fter-a-year>revealed
that the administration had claimed the authority to detain any refugee who
was already approved but had not yet applied for their green card or
attended the required interviews within a year of arriving in the country.
They were clearly planning, civil rights lawyers understood, to take the
Minnesota pilot nationwide=E2=80=94so IRAP and other organizations sued aga=
in
<https://refugeerights.org/news-resources/court-blocks-unlawful-national-re=
fugee-detention-policy>
and
got a Massachusetts district court to order a stay. =E2=80=9CWide-scale rou=
ndup and
detention of refugees for the sole reason that they have not yet received
their green card? We have not in forty-six years of refugee resettlement
seen anything of that kind,=E2=80=9D Ball Cooper, who is on the team litiga=
ting
these two lawsuits, told me.

Trump=E2=80=99s visa adjudication agency lifted its general pause on asylum
processing in March. But a hold remained in place on any pending
applications from Afghans and others who are on the list of expanded
travel-ban countries. =E2=80=9CCertainly in terms of policy, we=E2=80=99ve =
really seen a
layering of one restriction on top of the other,=E2=80=9D Julia Gelatt, ass=
ociate
director of the US immigration policy program at the Migration Policy
Institute, told me in March. =E2=80=9CAlmost no Afghan can get almost any k=
ind of
status right now, either to come to the United States from abroad, or to
renew their status in the United States, or to obtain a more secure status.=
=E2=80=9D

The cumulative effect of these policies has been a kind of paralysis.
People in the Afghan community worry about which events are safe to attend
and whether they can go to the market. Many struggle to manage the anxiety
of going about their daily lives. When Monsef leaves home for his office
every day, he told me when we spoke in early March, he wonders whether he
will return that evening, =E2=80=9Cor maybe I will go back to some detentio=
n
center.=E2=80=9D

In the past several months, court battles have yielded interim victories.
On June 5 a court ruled in a separate case
<https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/court-blocks-uscis-immigra=
tion-pause-39-countries/>
that
the federal government=E2=80=99s pause on immigration applications, includi=
ng from
travel-ban countries, was unlawful. The development should, at least for
now, mean that Monsef=E2=80=99s family and Mirjan=E2=80=99s siblings might =
finally see
their cases start moving. The government will almost certainly appeal, but
because the First Circuit may not side with the administration, the fate of
these applications may ultimately fall in the hands of the Supreme Court.

In the meantime, amid the continuing uncertainty and anti-immigrant
rhetoric in the US=E2=80=94as well as the eruptions of conflict around the
world=E2=80=94small gestures of local communal support and solidarity take =
on even
greater weight. The iftar where I caught up with Monsef and Mirjan this
past March took place at St. Ann & The Holy Trinity Episcopal Church in
Brooklyn Heights, an institution that was hosting this dinner for Afghan
immigrants for the fourth year in a row. When I talked to Mirjan there, she
told me that even with a document in hand that says they can stay in the
country, she feels unsafe: she knows that paperwork hasn=E2=80=99t protecte=
d other
refugees or asylum seekers from being detained in recent months. She
worries even more for her two siblings whose asylum cases remain pending.
In the last year or so, she said, she hasn=E2=80=99t had a =E2=80=9Csingle =
night of decent
sleep.=E2=80=9D

As we were talking, the volunteers asked for the crowd=E2=80=99s attention,=
 and
Monsef got up to make a few remarks. =E2=80=9CEvents like this,=E2=80=9D he=
 read off his
phone in English, =E2=80=9Cremind us that regardless of which religion we p=
ractice,
we share common values of compassion, kindness and generosity.=E2=80=9D On =
one end
of the room sat large aluminum trays of Kabuli pulao, homemade okra,
lentils, sabzi, kebabs, and at least two preparations of chicken;
volunteers had used the church=E2=80=99s tremendous gothic sanctuary to lay=
 out
boxes and tote bags full of kitchen utensils, prayer mats, clothes, hygiene
products, and children=E2=80=99s toys. The church is known for candlelit co=
ncerts
of Bach and Debussy, among other composers, but earlier that evening the
first thing I had heard when I ducked out of the rain and into the parish
hall was the sound of three young Afghan boys sitting at a grand piano,
smashing away cheerfully at the keys.
Tanvi Misra <https://www.nybooks.com/contributors/tanvi-misra/>

Tanvi Misra is a writer and investigative journalist who covers immigration
and justice issues. (January 2026)

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-=
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00%"><div class=3D"gmail-col-12" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;=
padding:0px 30px;background:transparent;width:1972.8px;max-width:100%"><div=
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in-top: 30px;"></div></div></div></div></div><br><div id=3D"gmail-fb-connec=
t" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transpa=
rent;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:&quot;Ivar Text&quot;;font-size:20px"></d=
iv><div class=3D"gmail-color-block-content gmail-pt-xs-6 gmail-pb-lg-12" st=
yle=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:30px 0px 60px;background:tr=
ansparent"><div class=3D"gmail-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;bo=
rder:0px;padding:0px 30px;background:transparent;margin-left:auto;margin-ri=
ght:auto;width:2032.8px;max-width:100%"><div class=3D"gmail-row" style=3D"b=
ox-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;max-widt=
h:100%"><div class=3D"gmail-col-12 gmail-article-col" style=3D"box-sizing:b=
order-box;border:0px;padding:0px 30px;background:transparent;width:1972.8px=
;max-width:100%"><h1 class=3D"gmail-mb-xs-2" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box=
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ight:500;line-height:1.2em;font-size:24pt;font-family:Giza;max-width:100%;w=
idth:60vw">The Unraveling of Afghan Asylum</h1><div class=3D"gmail-author g=
mail-semi-bold gmail-text-xs-16" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;=
padding:0px;background:transparent;font-weight:600;margin:0px auto 10px;max=
-width:100%;width:60vw;font-size:16pt;line-height:1em"><a href=3D"https://w=
ww.nybooks.com/contributors/tanvi-misra/" class=3D"gmail-semi-bold gmail-te=
xt-decoration-none" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;b=
ackground:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)"><span class=3D"gmail-semi-bold gm=
ail-text-decoration-none" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding=
:0px;background:transparent;color:black;text-decoration:none"><span style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;fon=
t-weight:bolder">Tanvi Misra</span></span></a><p class=3D"gmail-text-label =
gmail-mb-xs-6 gmail-mb-lg-0" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padd=
ing:0px;background:transparent;margin-top:0px;font-family:&quot;Suisse Int\=
000027l&quot;;font-size:12px;line-height:16px;margin-bottom:0px">June 28, 2=
026</p></div></div><div class=3D"gmail-col-12 gmail-article-col" style=3D"b=
ox-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px 30px;background:transparent;wid=
th:1972.8px;max-width:100%"><div class=3D"gmail-dek gmail-mt-xs-6 gmail-mb-=
xs-2" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:tran=
sparent;font-size:24px;line-height:32px;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%=
;width:60vw">Afghan asylum seekers fled a crisis the US had a direct role i=
n fomenting=E2=80=94only to become targets in Trump=E2=80=99s immigration c=
rackdown.</div><div class=3D"gmail-dek gmail-mt-xs-6 gmail-mb-xs-2" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;fon=
t-size:24px;line-height:32px;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw=
"><img src=3D"https://www.nybooks.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Misra20260=
6_1.jpeg?w=3D1140" class=3D"gmail-w-100 gmail-h-auto" alt=3D"" style=3D"bac=
kground: transparent; font-size: 20px; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px;=
 padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 1584px; height: auto;"></div>=
</div></div></div></div><div class=3D"gmail-color-block-wrapper gmail-posit=
ion-relative" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;backgro=
und:transparent"><div class=3D"gmail-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-=
box;border:0px;padding:0px 30px;background:transparent;margin-left:auto;mar=
gin-right:auto;width:2032.8px;max-width:100%"><div class=3D"gmail-row" styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;ma=
x-width:100%"><div class=3D"gmail-col-12 gmail-col-md-10 gmail-offset-md-1 =
gmail-mb-xs-8" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px 30px;b=
ackground:transparent;width:1644px;max-width:83.3333%;margin-left:164.4px;m=
argin-bottom:40px"><p class=3D"gmail-color-gray gmail-mb-0 gmail-text-label=
-sm gmail-mt-xs-2" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;ba=
ckground:transparent;color:rgb(104,104,104);font-family:&quot;Suisse Int\00=
0027l&quot;;font-size:10px;line-height:14px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-top:10=
px">Olivier Douliery/AFP/Getty Images</p><p class=3D"gmail-color-gray gmail=
-mb-0 gmail-text-small gmail-mt-xs-1 gmail-img-caption" style=3D"box-sizing=
:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(104,104=
,104);font-size:16px;line-height:22px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-top:5px">Afg=
han refugees waiting in a bus at Dulles International Airport, Virginia, Au=
gust 27, 2021</p></div></div></div></div><div id=3D"gmail-main-content" sty=
le=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;c=
olor:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:&quot;Ivar Text&quot;;font-size:20px"></div><di=
v class=3D"gmail-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;paddi=
ng:0px 30px;background:transparent;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;width=
:2032.8px;max-width:100%"><div class=3D"gmail-row gmail-position-relative" =
style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparen=
t;max-width:100%"><div style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0p=
x;background:transparent"><div class=3D"gmail-share-link" style=3D"box-sizi=
ng:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent"></div></div><d=
iv class=3D"gmail-col-12" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding=
:0px 30px;background:transparent;width:1972.8px;max-width:100%"><div class=
=3D"gmail-sidebar-item gmail-article-sidebar" style=3D"box-sizing:border-bo=
x;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-wi=
dth:100%;width:60vw;float:none"></div><div class=3D"gmail-article-col gmail=
-article-main-content gmail-paywall-article gmail-has-tombstone" style=3D"b=
ox-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent"><p styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;ma=
rgin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">Afees Monsef has a grave magn=
etism that makes him easy to find, even in a crowd.<span style=3D"box-sizin=
g:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;font-size:15px;l=
ine-height:0;vertical-align:baseline"><a href=3D"https://www.nybooks.com/on=
line/2026/06/28/the-unraveling-of-afghan-asylum/?printpage=3Dtrue#fn-1" sty=
le=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;c=
olor:rgb(153,1,1)">1</a></span>=C2=A0We first met in the spring of 2025, at=
 a gathering in the basement of the Hazrati Abu Bakr Siddique mosque in Flu=
shing, two years after he and his family of eight crossed the US=E2=80=93Me=
xico border fleeing persecution by the Taliban. By the time we reunited thi=
s past March, at an iftar dinner hosted in Brooklyn by the grassroots organ=
ization Afghans For A Better Tomorrow, Monsef and his family had taken subs=
tantive steps toward building a life in the US; with support from a state p=
rogram, they were about to move from a hotel shelter in the city to a house=
 in Westchester. He and his wife both had jobs. Their two eldest children=
=E2=80=94both girls=E2=80=94were in college.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:bord=
er-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;m=
ax-width:100%;width:60vw">And yet the Trump administration kept putting new=
 restrictions in their path. The judge assigned to their case was among the=
 many that the federal government has=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.nytimes.c=
om/2026/04/09/us/politics/trump-miller-immigration-judges-purge.html" targe=
t=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;bor=
der:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">fired</a>=C2=
=A0since Trump retook office. Last fall the administration=E2=80=99s leadin=
g immigration bureaucrat=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://x.com/USCISJoe/status/1994=
545007588774347?lang=3Den" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" st=
yle=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;=
color:rgb(153,1,1)">announced</a>=C2=A0an indefinite pause on approving asy=
lum applications filed with his agency, including that of Monsef=E2=80=99s =
family, among other petitions in the pipeline for visas and immigration ben=
efits. Then Immigration and Customs Enforcement started detaining Afghans i=
n the city with pending asylum applications, many of whom had already been =
detained after crossing the border. =E2=80=9CWe don=E2=80=99t know what we =
can do,=E2=80=9D Monsef told me on the phone in March. =E2=80=9CIt is a kin=
d of unknown future.=E2=80=9D</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0=
px;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;w=
idth:60vw">Monsef was born into a Shia Muslim family from the Hazara ethnic=
 minority. Both groups were targeted under the Taliban, whose forces tortur=
ed Monsef=E2=80=99s father, a well-known community leader, when Monsef was =
young. Monsef came of age shortly after the Taliban fell during the US-led =
invasion in 2001, and after getting his degree he worked for the Afghan gov=
ernment as a civil engineer on projects funded by the US. That alone, he kn=
ew, made him and his family into targets when, in 2021, the Taliban returne=
d to power.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;bac=
kground:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">With hi=
s wife, their six children, and his elderly mother, Monsef traveled around =
the world to the Americas, then made his way up, mostly on foot, to the US=
=E2=80=93Mexico border. The journey was an extreme ordeal. During the walk =
through the notorious jungles of the Darien Gap, one of the=C2=A0<a href=3D=
"https://www.cfr.org/articles/crossing-darien-gap-migrants-risk-death-journ=
ey-us" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:bo=
rder-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">=
deadliest land migration routes</a>=C2=A0in the world, Monsef at times held=
 two of his younger children in his arms. At one point in their hike his el=
derly mother collapsed; she was unconscious for over an hour. It was so phy=
sically arduous that he sometimes felt he might not be able to push through=
.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:tr=
ansparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">When Monsef and h=
is family finally crossed into San Diego, in the spring of 2023, they felt =
an immediate flush of relief, he told me. They thought they were safe: =E2=
=80=9CWe were not thinking about what will happen after.=E2=80=9D Soon advo=
cates in New York City arranged to fly them to the East Coast.</p><p style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;mar=
gin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">Among the advocates who came t=
o help the family was Arash Azizzada, who founded Afghans for a Better Tomo=
rrow in 2021 to coordinate the resettlement of Afghans who were evacuated a=
fter the US withdrawal. In early 2023, when Republican governors in border =
states started bussing migrants into New York City as a political ploy, Azi=
zzada and other volunteers began showing up at Port Authority to greet them=
, set them up with legal assistance, give them a sense of community, and ar=
range other forms of mutual aid. Their first order of business was handing =
out cell phones. Some of the refugees they helped would later chip in to su=
pport others.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;b=
ackground:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">The A=
fghans who came through the southern border under Biden were a particularly=
 vulnerable crowd, Azizzada said in an email when he first wrote to me in e=
arly 2024. Being asylum seekers who had crossed the border, often without p=
ermission, they didn=E2=80=99t qualify for certain benefits typically exten=
ded to resettled refugees. Nor did they all have a clear path to citizenshi=
p that took into account their special circumstances as people who had fled=
 not just a shared enemy but a situation the United States had a direct rol=
e in fomenting. Because of new rules the Biden administration implemented a=
t the time, if migrants crossed without an appointment on a glitchy app, th=
ey were barred from seeking asylum altogether (although they could still pu=
rsue certain other types of protections). These policies were already hurti=
ng asylum seekers, and Azizzada worried that a second Trump administration =
could spell disaster for Afghans, among other new arrivals. Two years later=
, the disaster is unfolding as a slow burn.</p><p class=3D"gmail-has-drop-c=
ap" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transp=
arent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">The US, which signed =
the international protocol on refugees in 1968, has an obligation to all as=
ylum seekers when they arrive at or enter its borders: it cannot, by law, r=
eturn them to harm. The right to asylum was formalized into US law in 1980,=
 almost three decades after it was codified into international law as a res=
ponse to the mass displacement caused by the Holocaust. It has never been f=
airly and consistently implemented, and it almost immediately came=C2=A0<a =
href=3D"https://jewishcurrents.org/the-death-of-asylum" target=3D"_blank" r=
el=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;paddin=
g:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">under attack</a>. In the d=
ecades since, successive presidents=E2=80=94both Democratic and Republican=
=E2=80=94have both made it much more=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://cmsny.org/publ=
ications/jmhs-enemy-territory/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferre=
r" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transpa=
rent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">dangerous</a>=C2=A0for people fleeing persecution =
to arrive at US borders in the first place and chipped away at the=C2=A0<a =
href=3D"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/obama-s-rocket-docket-immigrat=
ion-hearings-violate-due-process-experts-n672636" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"=
noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;=
background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">due process</a>=C2=A0they can ac=
cess inside the US if they manage to enter. (Accessing asylum requires the =
applicant=E2=80=99s presence on US soil, and anyone can, at least on paper,=
 legally request it regardless of how they enter the country.) Asylum law w=
as created for people fleeing political persecution and excluded so-called =
economic migrants, but in reality these were never mutually exclusive categ=
ories, as the historian Mae Ngai has=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.nybooks.co=
m/online/2025/10/12/the-end-of-asylum/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noreferrer=
 noopener" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background=
:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">explained in these pages</a>. And yet unde=
r Trump, Ngai writes, even this flawed protection has been dissolved =E2=80=
=9Cfor cynical ends.=E2=80=9D No matter how deserving a migrant is under th=
e law, they remain a target.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0p=
x;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;wi=
dth:60vw">In his first term Trump launched an escalating assault on asylum.=
 During the pandemic he started turning away asylum seekers at the border, =
citing public health reasons. On the campaign trail Biden vowed to bring ba=
ck humanity to the southern border, but once he entered the White House he =
retained and even expanded this Trump-era ban. Human Rights First documente=
d=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://humanrightsfirst.org/library/human-rights-stain-p=
ublic-health-farce/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D=
"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:=
rgb(153,1,1)">around 13,500 cases</a>=C2=A0of murder, rape, and other viole=
nce against migrants who were blocked or turned back under this policy afte=
r Biden took office. Biden also, for the first time ever, put=C2=A0<a href=
=3D"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/biden-order-restricts-how-many-migran=
ts-can-seek-asylum-at-southern-border" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener no=
referrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:=
transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">numerical limits</a>=C2=A0on how many peopl=
e could seek asylum at the southern border. These policies meant that =E2=
=80=9Cmore people will die, or face persecution and abuse, after they are b=
locked from accessing safety,=E2=80=9D Heidi Altman, the vice president of =
policy at the National Immigration Law Center,=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.=
nilc.org/resources/how-the-biden-administrations-expanded-asylum-ban-puts-l=
ives-at-risk-and-contradicts-american-values/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noo=
pener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;bac=
kground:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">said</a>=C2=A0in September 2024.</p=
><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transp=
arent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">When Trump returned t=
o office in 2025 he shut down the entry of all migrants=E2=80=94including a=
sylum seekers=E2=80=94by declaring an =E2=80=9C<a href=3D"https://www.ameri=
canimmigrationcouncil.org/litigation/challenging-shutdown-asylum-access-por=
ts-entry/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizin=
g:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,=
1)">invasion</a>=E2=80=9D at the southern border. An appeals court=C2=A0<a =
href=3D"https://www.npr.org/2026/04/24/g-s1-118707/trump-asylum-ban-us-mexi=
co-border-illegal" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"b=
ox-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rg=
b(153,1,1)">recently blocked</a>=C2=A0this measure, but this past week the =
Supreme Court issued a decision in a separate case allowing the administrat=
ion to restrict asylum in other ways. Over the past year and a half, meanwh=
ile, the Trump administration has developed a range of methods to weaponize=
 a system already stacked against asylum seekers, cancelling many existing =
pathways and protections and rushing to deport people, including asylum see=
kers with pending cases. To an unprecedented degree, many have been sent to=
 third countries with which they had no ties, from Panama to Ghana.</p><p s=
tyle=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent=
;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">The Afghans caught up in t=
his dragnet are not legally distinct from other types of asylum seekers: th=
ey have to demonstrate the same asylum paperwork, and they remain subject t=
o the same border policies and shifts in courtroom due process. But because=
 they=C2=A0come from a country in which the United States has directly wage=
d war, the US government has a special obligation toward them. At the same =
time, it=C2=A0also scrutinizes them from a particular, racialized point of =
view that developed in the years after September 11. The US occupied Afghan=
istan for twenty years as one of the crucial arenas in its War on Terror, m=
uddling on with its attempt at regime change and counterinsurgency. Faced w=
ith political instability at home, thousands of Afghans fled, many to the c=
ountry that had sold itself as a haven of democracy and opportunity while i=
t invaded and further destabilized theirs. Between 2000 and 2019 the Afghan=
 immigrant population in the US almost tripled,=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www=
.migrationpolicy.org/article/afghan-immigrants-united-states-2019" target=
=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;bord=
er:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">from 45,000 t=
o 132,000</a>, according to the Migration Policy Institute. All this gives =
the current suspension of protections for Afghan asylum seekers an especial=
ly cruel tinge.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px=
;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">Dur=
ing Trump=E2=80=99s first-term crackdown Afghans flew somewhat =E2=80=9Cund=
er the radar,=E2=80=9D Azizzada told me in a recent interview; perhaps beca=
use they were seen as useful to the War on Terror, they weren=E2=80=99t a p=
rimary target. That started to change after Biden pulled US troops out of A=
fghanistan in 2021, quickly reversing any meager gains the US may have made=
 during its longest war. As the Taliban regained control, the=C2=A0<a href=
=3D"https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/us-government-rush-evacuate-afg=
han-allies-allocate-special-visas" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener norefe=
rrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:tran=
sparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">hastily planned evacuation</a>=C2=A0efforts lef=
t Afghans who had worked with the US=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.politico.c=
om/news/2021/08/14/forget-the-visas-the-scramble-is-on-to-save-afghan-partn=
ers-as-taliban-closes-in-504582" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferr=
er" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transp=
arent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">scrambling</a>=C2=A0to get on planes leaving Kabu=
l. Reports from the time showed Afghans=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.youtube=
.com/watch?v=3DItjlpO9kJMM" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" s=
tyle=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent=
;color:rgb(153,1,1)">clinging</a>=C2=A0to a military aircraft=E2=80=99s lan=
ding gears as the plane taxied towards takeoff; at least=C2=A0<a href=3D"ht=
tps://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61799998?st_source=3Dai_mode" target=
=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;bord=
er:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">seven people =
died</a>=C2=A0in the process. For days people rushed at the perimeter of th=
e airport=E2=80=94which was manned by US Marines=E2=80=94waving their IDs a=
nd pleading to board. =E2=80=9CEleven years, I worked with the CIA,=E2=80=
=9D one man=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DgkUzANwEvxM" =
target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-bo=
x;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">said</a=
>=C2=A0in English to the PBS correspondent Jane Ferguson, showing his paper=
work. =E2=80=9CNo one is letting me in.=E2=80=9D=C2=A0</p><p style=3D"box-s=
izing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px a=
uto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">After=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.huffp=
ost.com/entry/refugee-groups-joe-biden-afghanistan_n_611c0f6ce4b0e5b5d8e3c9=
48" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:borde=
r-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">fac=
ing criticism</a>=C2=A0from advocates and Democrats in Congress, Biden anno=
unced=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.dhs.gov/archive/operation-allies-welcome"=
 target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-b=
ox;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">a prog=
ram</a>=C2=A0that would allow vulnerable Afghans who had already undergone =
vetting to enter the US. They would have temporary permission to stay as th=
ey waited to be processed for special visas meant for those who helped US f=
orces during the war=E2=80=94or for asylum, if they were eligible. A year l=
ater, the program was=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/01/politi=
cs/afghan-resettlement" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;col=
or:rgb(153,1,1)">renamed and reoriented</a>=C2=A0toward a longer-term appro=
ach, offering Afghans who had been evacuated to US bases in Qatar and elsew=
here fast-track refugee resettlement and a chance to obtain special visas.<=
/p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:tran=
sparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">Since the withdrawa=
l, meanwhile, advocates had been doubling down on getting Congress to pass =
legislation guaranteeing a permanent pathway to citizenship for Afghans all=
ied with the US. In 2024 Senator Jerry Moran of Kansas, then the top Republ=
ican on the Senate Veterans=E2=80=99 Affairs Committee, joined Amy Klobucha=
r to introduce an amendment along these lines in a national security packag=
e after Republicans blocked a broader border legislation that included the =
provision. =E2=80=9CAfter the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, veterans=
 extended the creed =E2=80=98leave no man behind=E2=80=99 and helped their =
Afghan partners flee to the United States for safety,=E2=80=9D Moran=C2=A0<=
a href=3D"https://www.moran.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/news-releases?ID=3D=
1EC90BE0-609F-4728-90FB-C2EDA9FFE69E" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener nor=
eferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:t=
ransparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">said in a statement</a>=C2=A0at the time. =
=E2=80=9CUnfortunately, many of our Afghan partners are still overseas, and=
 those who made it to the US face uncertainty as to whether they will be gr=
anted permanent residency.=E2=80=9D</p><div class=3D"gmail-image-caption-wr=
apper" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:tra=
nsparent;display:table;margin:0px auto"><a href=3D"https://www.nybooks.com/=
wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Misra202606_2.jpeg" class=3D"gmail-d-block" styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;co=
lor:rgb(153,1,1);display:block"><img src=3D"https://www.nybooks.com/wp-cont=
ent/uploads/2026/06/Misra202606_2.jpeg?w=3D1150" alt=3D"" style=3D"box-sizi=
ng: border-box; border: 0px; padding: 0px; background: transparent; vertica=
l-align: middle; height: auto; width: auto; display: block; max-height: 600=
px; max-width: 100%; color: black;"></a><p class=3D"gmail-text-label-sm gma=
il-mb-xs-1 gmail-color-gray gmail-text-center" style=3D"box-sizing:border-b=
ox;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin-top:0px;font-family=
:&quot;Suisse Int\000027l&quot;;font-size:10px;line-height:14px;margin-bott=
om:5px">Ed Jones/AFP/Getty Images</p><p class=3D"gmail-text-xs gmail-color-=
gray gmail-text-center gmail-mb-0" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0p=
x;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin-top:0px;line-height:20px;margin=
-bottom:0px">Advocates protesting in favor of creating residency pathways f=
or Afghans after the Taliban=E2=80=99s return to power, New York City, Augu=
st 28, 2021</p></div><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0=
px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">M=
oran saw securing a place in the US for Afghan allies as a matter of nation=
al security. =E2=80=9CIt sends a message to our allies that we=E2=80=99re d=
ependable and a message to our adversaries that we=E2=80=99re united,=E2=80=
=9D he told the military newspaper=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.stripes.com/=
theaters/us/2024-02-08/afghan-allies-senate-legislation-veterans-groups-129=
43661.html" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizi=
ng:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1=
,1)"><em style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:t=
ransparent;color:black">Stars and Stripes</em></a>. But hardline Republican=
s, notably Chuck Grassley and Tom Cotton in the Senate, have refused to bac=
k bills with a citizenship pathway for Afghans unless they include more vet=
ting and higher-order asylum restrictions at the border, arguing that Biden=
=E2=80=99s evacuation efforts prioritized haste instead of security. As evi=
dence, they have=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-=
releases/grassley-continues-probe-of-biden-harris-administrations-failure-t=
o-properly-vet-afghan-evacuees" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferre=
r" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transpa=
rent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">pointed</a>=C2=A0to=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.oi=
g.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/assets/2022-09/OIG-22-64-Sep22-Redacted.pdf" =
target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-bo=
x;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">oversig=
ht reports</a>=C2=A0finding that US authorities did not always have data to=
 fully vet admitted Afghans. A 2022 report found that two of the parole pro=
gram=E2=80=99s beneficiaries (out of tens of thousands) =E2=80=9Cmay have p=
osed a risk to national security.=E2=80=9D A 2025 audit of the FBI=E2=80=99=
s role in the process found that fifty-five evacuees were on watchlists, bu=
t that the agency =E2=80=9Ceffectively communicated and addressed any poten=
tial national security risks=E2=80=9D overall. The federal government has e=
mphasized that these people were=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.npr.org/2025/1=
1/27/nx-s1-5622991/afghan-refugee-program-national-guard-shooting-suspect" =
target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-bo=
x;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">among t=
he most vetted</a>=C2=A0immigrants, screened by counterterrorism department=
s and the FBI.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;=
background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">On t=
he other hand, many advocates have noted that the government=E2=80=99s appr=
oach to Afghan resettlement was not just uniquely stringent but willfully s=
luggish, especially in contrast with the reception of Ukrainian refugees fl=
eeing the Russian invasion around the same time. The few existing pathways =
sometimes closed for nebulous reasons, even after months of agonizing waiti=
ng, and=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/09/17/a=
fghanistan-visa-family-00113267" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferr=
er" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transp=
arent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">even for those Afghan families</a>=C2=A0who seeme=
d to otherwise present a slam-dunk case. Moran and Klobuchar=E2=80=99s 2024=
 proposal was never included in the final national-security package, and=C2=
=A0<a href=3D"https://forumtogether.org/article/bill-summary-afghan-adjustm=
ent-legislation/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"bo=
x-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb=
(153,1,1)">subsequent legislative efforts</a>=C2=A0to create new pathways t=
o citizenship for Afghans have been similarly bogged down. Earlier this yea=
r, Politico reported that House Speaker Mike Johnson=C2=A0<a href=3D"https:=
//www.politico.com/news/2025/12/09/johnson-cut-provisions-afghan-relocation=
-ndaa-00683378" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-=
sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(1=
53,1,1)">quietly stripped</a>=C2=A0language that would continue relocation =
efforts for Afghans from the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act. Even =
in 2026, five years after the withdrawal, some evacuees were still waiting =
to be resettled at the Camp As-Sayliyah military base in Doha, Qatar. When =
the US launched its war in Iran,=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.bbc.com/news/a=
rticles/c2lrke1wjdyo" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;col=
or:rgb(153,1,1)">many of them</a>=C2=A0were stranded as debris from Iran=E2=
=80=99s retaliatory fire=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D=
juxmn-slOPg" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-siz=
ing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,=
1,1)">rained down</a>.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padd=
ing:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60=
vw">Advocates also note that translators and other Afghans who worked direc=
tly with the US government were not the only ones whose lives were touched =
by=E2=80=94and continue to be affected by=E2=80=94US policies at home and a=
broad. Both the ground evacuation efforts and Biden=E2=80=99s special admis=
sion programs prioritized people allied with US war efforts,=C2=A0<a href=
=3D"https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/majority-afghan-allies-may-h=
ave-missed-out-airlift-us-official-2021-09-01/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"no=
opener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;ba=
ckground:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">at least on paper</a>. Bipartisan =
legislative pushes in Congress like the Afghan Adjustment Act (which attemp=
ted to create a pathway to citizenship and formed the basis of Moran and Kl=
obuchar=E2=80=99s failed amendment) and the Enduring Welcome Act (which sou=
ght to continue resettlement efforts) have also emphasized the US=E2=80=99s=
 obligations to those who helped its service members=E2=80=94to =E2=80=9Cpr=
otect those who protected us, and preserve our nation=E2=80=99s credibility=
 for future generations,=E2=80=9D as Representative Mike Lawler, a Republic=
an,=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://kamlager-dove.house.gov/media/press-releases/ka=
mlager-dove-lawler-titus-mccaul-introduce-bipartisan-legislation-uphold" ta=
rget=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;=
border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">said</a>=
=C2=A0when introducing that second piece of legislation in August 2025.</p>=
<p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transpa=
rent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">This left many asylum =
seekers without recourse. =E2=80=9CThere were activists, or just people who=
 have marginalized identities, or ordinary Afghans who were impacted=E2=80=
=94as everyone was=E2=80=94by US foreign policy,=E2=80=9D said Laila Ayub o=
f Project ANAR (Afghan Network for Advocacy and Resources), which started i=
n 2021 to provide legal support to Afghans. =E2=80=9CWe really view everyon=
e as equally deserving of protection.=E2=80=9D Those who were not immediate=
ly evacuated on US flights and who couldn=E2=80=99t risk waiting in Afghani=
stan for the monthslong refugee resettlement process fled to Pakistan or Ir=
an=E2=80=94but they faced long delays there, during which they remained vul=
nerable to deportations. Many Afghans who were not eligible for special pat=
hways to the US or who hit bureaucratic snags in these or other third count=
ries eventually tried to make it to the US southern border and request asyl=
um. When Trump retook office those waiting abroad saw their cases grind to =
a halt, and those who did make it found themselves caught in a political st=
orm of their own.</p><p class=3D"gmail-has-drop-cap" style=3D"box-sizing:bo=
rder-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px=
;max-width:100%;width:60vw">After arriving in New York, Monsef and his fami=
ly spent a few months at the Roosevelt Hotel in Manhattan, where thousands =
of new migrants from around the world were being housed. (Starting last spr=
ing the Trump administration=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.fox5ny.com/news/tr=
ump-fema-migrant-funds-nyc" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" s=
tyle=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent=
;color:rgb(153,1,1)">targeted</a>=C2=A0this shelter in particular, describi=
ng the hotel as a base for Salvadoran gang operations and announcing that i=
t would=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/514171=
9-fema-funding-new-york-city-migrant-housing/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noo=
pener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;bac=
kground:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">pull millions</a>=C2=A0in emergency=
 management funding that allowed the city to use the building as temporary =
housing for the new arrivals.) After Roosevelt, Monsef=E2=80=99s family liv=
ed for a year and a half at another hotel shelter that was smaller, less cr=
owded, and, in Monsef=E2=80=99s view, more hospitable.</p><p style=3D"box-s=
izing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px a=
uto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">But the shelter system still denied the=
m a sense of agency and stability. They couldn=E2=80=99t cook their own foo=
d or even make their own tea; the government meals were bland and unappetiz=
ing; it wasn=E2=80=99t clear if the meat was halal. Only when Monsef got ap=
proved by a New York state initiative supporting the resettlement of migran=
ts outside the city and moved to a single-family home, he told me, did he f=
eel he had taken the =E2=80=9Cfirst step of starting my life in the US.=E2=
=80=9D</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;backgrou=
nd:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">In the subur=
bs Monsef had a backyard where his younger kids could play. The neighbors w=
ere friendly, and the family could finally buy groceries and cook their own=
 meals. After an initial struggle, Monsef found a job suited to his trainin=
g as an engineer; his wife also got part-time employment in food service. H=
is oldest daughter, whose schooling was interrupted by their journey out of=
 Afghanistan, graduated high school but couldn=E2=80=99t find a way into th=
e elite colleges to which she had aspired. She started at community college=
. The second-oldest, who commuted every day to high school in the city, got=
 into Georgetown.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0=
px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">A=
nd yet the family=E2=80=99s future remained unsettled. Throughout 2025 the =
Trump administration shut down legal pathways to the US and intensified res=
trictions on Afghan and other migrants. On January 20 Trump suspended the r=
efugee program,=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-admi=
nistration-canceling-flights-nearly-1660-afghan-refugees-say-us-2025-01-20/=
" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-=
box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">pulli=
ng over a thousand Afghans</a>=C2=A0already cleared to travel to the US off=
 of flights. Then, in February, Trump=E2=80=99s Department of Homeland Secu=
rity started terminating Temporary Protected Status and similar safeguards,=
 which are given to people from countries that have suffered natural disast=
ers or conflict, starting with Venezuela and Haiti. In May it=C2=A0<a href=
=3D"https://immpolicytracking.org/policies/reported-dhs-to-end-tps-for-afgh=
ans/#/tab-policy-documents" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" s=
tyle=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent=
;color:rgb(153,1,1)">terminated</a>=C2=A0TPS for Afghanistan. (The administ=
ration has since also announced the end of TPS and a similar program known =
as Deferred Enforced Departure for people from several other countries, inc=
luding South Sudan, Honduras, Palestine, and Yemen.)</p><div class=3D"gmail=
-image-caption-wrapper" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0=
px;background:transparent;display:table;margin:0px auto"><a href=3D"https:/=
/www.nybooks.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Misra202606_3.jpeg" class=3D"gm=
ail-d-block" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;backgrou=
nd:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1);display:block"><img src=3D"https://www.ny=
books.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Misra202606_3.jpeg?w=3D1150" alt=3D"" =
style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; padding: 0px; background: tra=
nsparent; vertical-align: middle; height: auto; width: auto; display: block=
; max-height: 600px; max-width: 100%; color: black;"></a><p class=3D"gmail-=
text-label-sm gmail-mb-xs-1 gmail-color-gray gmail-text-center" style=3D"bo=
x-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin-to=
p:0px;font-family:&quot;Suisse Int\000027l&quot;;font-size:10px;line-height=
:14px;margin-bottom:5px">Boris Roessler/Picture Alliance/Getty Images</p><p=
 class=3D"gmail-text-xs gmail-color-gray gmail-text-center gmail-mb-0" styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;ma=
rgin-top:0px;line-height:20px;margin-bottom:0px">Afghan refugees sheltering=
 at an American airbase in Germany awaiting their flights to the US, Ramste=
in, October 9, 2021</p></div><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;p=
adding:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width=
:60vw">Monsef=E2=80=99s TPS expired in May 2025, making him more vulnerable=
 to deportation. His family had also applied for asylum, and they could leg=
ally stay and work in the country as long as their application was pending.=
 But the process was drawn-out: Monsef=E2=80=99s first court appearance was=
 scheduled for 2028 until his lawyer got it moved up to March of this year.=
</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:tra=
nsparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">More restrictions =
on Afghan migrants followed, with particularly dire consequences for those =
who still had close family outside the US. In the summer, the president=C2=
=A0<a href=3D"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/06/restr=
icting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-united-states-from-for=
eign-terrorists-and-other-national-security-and-public-safety-threats/" tar=
get=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;b=
order:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">announced =
travel restrictions</a>=C2=A0for twelve countries, including Afghanistan (a=
lthough still with narrow exceptions for special visas meant to bring in al=
lied Afghans). Soon after, the State Department started denying final trave=
l documents for family members of Afghan asylees already in the US whose ow=
n =E2=80=9Cderivative=E2=80=9D asylum cases had been remotely approved. The=
 International Refugee Assistance Project=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://refugeeri=
ghts.org/news-resources/a-a-et-al-v-united-states-department-of-state-chall=
enging-the-state-departments-unlawful-denials-to-afghan-asylee-family-membe=
rs" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:borde=
r-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">sue=
d</a>, arguing that the travel ban did not apply to this subset of Afghans,=
 and secured a temporary block. Recently a judge=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://re=
fugeerights.org/news-resources/federal-judge-rules-afghan-allies-can-sue-tr=
ump-administration-for-banning-family-members-from-the-united-states" targe=
t=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;bor=
der:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">rejected</a>=
=C2=A0the government=E2=80=99s request to throw out the case.</p><p style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;mar=
gin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">=E2=80=9CThese were lawful pat=
hways that were already set up, and what we see time and time again is the =
Trump administration cutting them off,=E2=80=9D Pedro Sepulveda of IRAP tol=
d me in an interview. As the case winds its way through an already circuito=
us legal process=E2=80=94made even more so by repeated government shutdowns=
 in the US=E2=80=94the plaintiffs continue to suffer. Some remain in Afghan=
istan, fearing for their lives from the Taliban, while a=C2=A0<a href=3D"ht=
tps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yxkj8gnr2o" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noop=
ener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;back=
ground:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">regional conflict with Pakistan esca=
lates</a>. =E2=80=9CAt the core of this, it=E2=80=99s really about family r=
eunification,=E2=80=9D Sepulveda says. =E2=80=9CWe see a complete abandonme=
nt of Afghans, entirely.=E2=80=9D</p><p class=3D"gmail-has-drop-cap" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;mar=
gin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">In September, as federal agent=
s were conducting targeted raids around the state, Azizzada could claim a s=
mall victory: the government notified some families that their asylum cases=
 had been approved. Among them was Nabila Mirjan, a thirty-year-old single =
mother I had met at the same 2025 mosque event where I first crossed paths =
with Monsef. A survivor of gender-based violence who had worked in Afghanis=
tan at organizations for women=E2=80=99s rights, Mirjan spent a year in Ira=
n with her family after fleeing the Taliban before traveling to Brazil and =
then=E2=80=94with her young son, adult brother, and sister=E2=80=94to the U=
S border. (Three of her brothers and her elderly parents stayed behind in B=
razil.) Upon entering the country in San Ysidro her brother was detained fo=
r seventy-five days, at which point he was released and told to attend his =
asylum court hearings and scheduled ICE check-ins. When we met, Mirjan was =
living at the Roosevelt Hotel with her six-year-old son and her sister, won=
dering where they would go once the city=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.nyc.go=
v/mayors-office/news/2025/01/mayor-adams-new-round-migrant-shelter-closures=
-including-one-city-s-largest" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer=
" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transpar=
ent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">phased out its migrant shelters</a>, as it had anno=
unced it would.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px=
;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">By =
the time I saw her again at the church iftar event in 2026, she had become =
a more confident English speaker. She now has a part-time job, and her son =
is getting used to life in the city, although he still has separation anxie=
ty and cries from time to time because he misses his grandparents and uncle=
s. She too is getting used to the US, but only after adjusting her expectat=
ions. When she first decided to come to America, she thought =E2=80=9Call m=
y dreams will turn to reality,=E2=80=9D she told me. =E2=80=9CWhen I came h=
ere, I saw that that is not true. It=E2=80=99s not easy.=E2=80=9D</p><p sty=
le=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;m=
argin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">Last November the footing of=
 Afghan asylum seekers already in the US got even more precarious. That mon=
th an Afghan man who had worked alongside the C.I.A. and previously been gr=
anted asylum in the US=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7=
9r2n3j5dyo" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizi=
ng:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1=
,1)">fatally shot</a>=C2=A0a National Guard member in Washington, D.C., and=
 injured another. When Monsef heard the news, he called his daughter at Geo=
rgetown and told her not to go out in case there was retaliatory violence a=
gainst Afghans.=C2=A0</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;paddi=
ng:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60v=
w">News reports suggested that the shooter was struggling with mental illne=
ss, but the Trump administration used the killing as a pretense both to imp=
ose a spate of new measures against Afghans and to initiate a crackdown for=
 which the foundation had already been laid. Just days before the shooting,=
 the administration had announced that it would be reviewing refugee cases =
already approved under Biden. Now, however, the Homeland Security agency th=
at considers asylum applications announced that it was=C2=A0<a href=3D"http=
s://www.cbsnews.com/news/national-guard-shooting-dc-us-asylum-decisions-pau=
se/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:bord=
er-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">ha=
lting</a>=C2=A0processing for all the asylum applications in its pipeline. =
It also suspended green-card and other immigration cases for countries subj=
ect to Trump=E2=80=99s travel ban, which had been announced in June 2025 an=
d=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.asianlawcaucus.org/news-resources/guides-repo=
rts/explainer-faq-expanded-travel-and-immigration-ban" target=3D"_blank" re=
l=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding=
:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">later expanded</a>. When we=
 spoke in March, the IRAP attorney Laurie Ball Cooper said that this =E2=80=
=9Cuse of the travel ban domestically=E2=80=9D was =E2=80=9Cunprecedented.=
=E2=80=9D In essence, she continued, it was a =E2=80=9Cracist deployment of=
 nationality as a restriction on immigration,=E2=80=9D a tactic with its so=
urce in =E2=80=9Cthe earliest roots of US immigration law.=E2=80=9D</p><p s=
tyle=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent=
;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">In New York City, ICE star=
ted calling Afghans waiting for their court dates and demanding they show u=
p for non-routine check-ins, then arresting single men who arrived for thei=
r appointments. Among the first cases Azizzada got wind of in the area was =
that of Mirjan=E2=80=99s twenty-year-old brother, who was taken into custod=
y at a check-in at 26 Federal Plaza on December 2. That evening Mirjan call=
ed Azizzada crying. Her brother=E2=80=99s first detention had been hard eno=
ugh: by the time they reunited that time, she remembers, he had lost his ap=
petite and developed a restless gait.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;=
border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-widt=
h:100%;width:60vw">Two weeks later, with the help of a lawyer that Azizzada=
=E2=80=99s team helped find, her brother was released again. The family hud=
dled together on a video conference with their siblings and parents in Braz=
il. =E2=80=9CSome of us were crying with joy,=E2=80=9D Mirjan told me over =
Whatsapp, translating her thoughts through an AI app. =E2=80=9CMy brother c=
ouldn=E2=80=99t speak.=E2=80=9D</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border=
:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%=
;width:60vw">One of the next major threats to recent Afghan arrivals emerge=
d not in New York but in Minnesota. In January 2026, as federal agents desc=
ended on the state, lawyers started noticing a disturbing trend: refugees w=
ho had already been approved but had not yet received their green cards wer=
e being detained. Again IRAP=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://refugeerights.org/news=
-resources/u-h-a-v-bondi-challenging-the-trump-administrations-detention-of=
-refugees-in-minnesota" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;col=
or:rgb(153,1,1)">sued</a>=C2=A0on behalf of plaintiffs=E2=80=94including so=
me Afghans=E2=80=94who reported being swept up by masked agents, handcuffed=
, and aggressively shoved into unmarked vehicles. They were shuffled from b=
uilding to building without being able to make a call, then put on a plane =
in shackles and taken out of the state. Some were released days later, on s=
trange streets, far from home.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:=
0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;=
width:60vw">In February the judge responded to IRAP=E2=80=99s lawsuit by or=
dering a temporary pause to this practice.=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://refugeer=
ights.org/news-resources/lkt-in-newly-released-memo-dhs-claims-authority-to=
-detain-any-refugee-who-has-not-applied-for-a-green-card-after-a-year" targ=
et=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;bo=
rder:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">Government =
court filings in the proceedings=C2=A0</a>revealed that the administration =
had claimed the authority to detain any refugee who was already approved bu=
t had not yet applied for their green card or attended the required intervi=
ews within a year of arriving in the country. They were clearly planning, c=
ivil rights lawyers understood, to take the Minnesota pilot nationwide=E2=
=80=94so=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://refugeerights.org/news-resources/court-blo=
cks-unlawful-national-refugee-detention-policy" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"no=
opener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;ba=
ckground:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">IRAP and other organizations sued =
again</a>=C2=A0and got a Massachusetts district court to order a stay. =E2=
=80=9CWide-scale roundup and detention of refugees for the sole reason that=
 they have not yet received their green card? We have not in forty-six year=
s of refugee resettlement seen anything of that kind,=E2=80=9D Ball Cooper,=
 who is on the team litigating these two lawsuits, told me.</p><p style=3D"=
box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin:=
0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">Trump=E2=80=99s visa adjudication =
agency lifted its general pause on asylum processing in March. But a hold r=
emained in place on any pending applications from Afghans and others who ar=
e on the list of expanded travel-ban countries. =E2=80=9CCertainly in terms=
 of policy, we=E2=80=99ve really seen a layering of one restriction on top =
of the other,=E2=80=9D Julia Gelatt, associate director of the US immigrati=
on policy program at the Migration Policy Institute, told me in March. =E2=
=80=9CAlmost no Afghan can get almost any kind of status right now, either =
to come to the United States from abroad, or to renew their status in the U=
nited States, or to obtain a more secure status.=E2=80=9D</p><p class=3D"gm=
ail-has-drop-cap" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;bac=
kground:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">The cum=
ulative effect of these policies has been a kind of paralysis. People in th=
e Afghan community worry about which events are safe to attend and whether =
they can go to the market. Many struggle to manage the anxiety of going abo=
ut their daily lives. When Monsef leaves home for his office every day, he =
told me when we spoke in early March, he wonders whether he will return tha=
t evening, =E2=80=9Cor maybe I will go back to some detention center.=E2=80=
=9D</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:=
transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">In the past sev=
eral months, court battles have yielded interim victories. On June 5 a cour=
t ruled=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/cou=
rt-blocks-uscis-immigration-pause-39-countries/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"n=
oopener noreferrer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;b=
ackground:transparent;color:rgb(153,1,1)">in a separate case</a>=C2=A0that =
the federal government=E2=80=99s pause on immigration applications, includi=
ng from travel-ban countries,=C2=A0was unlawful. The development should, at=
 least for now, mean that Monsef=E2=80=99s family and Mirjan=E2=80=99s sibl=
ings might finally see their cases start moving. The government will almost=
 certainly appeal, but because the First Circuit may not side with the admi=
nistration, the fate of these applications may ultimately fall in the hands=
 of the Supreme Court.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padd=
ing:0px;background:transparent;margin:0px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60=
vw">In the meantime, amid the continuing uncertainty and anti-immigrant rhe=
toric in the US=E2=80=94as well as the eruptions of conflict around the wor=
ld=E2=80=94small gestures of local communal support and solidarity take on =
even greater weight. The iftar where I caught up with Monsef and Mirjan thi=
s past March took place at St. Ann &amp; The Holy Trinity Episcopal Church =
in Brooklyn Heights, an institution that was hosting this dinner for Afghan=
 immigrants for the fourth year in a row. When I talked to Mirjan there, sh=
e told me that even with a document in hand that says they can stay in the =
country, she feels unsafe: she knows that paperwork hasn=E2=80=99t protecte=
d other refugees or asylum seekers from being detained in recent months. Sh=
e worries even more for her two siblings whose asylum cases remain pending.=
 In the last year or so, she said, she hasn=E2=80=99t had a =E2=80=9Csingle=
 night of decent sleep.=E2=80=9D</p><p class=3D"gmail-tombstone" style=3D"b=
ox-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;margin:0=
px auto 30px;max-width:100%;width:60vw">As we were talking, the volunteers =
asked for the crowd=E2=80=99s attention, and Monsef got up to make a few re=
marks. =E2=80=9CEvents like this,=E2=80=9D he read off his phone in English=
, =E2=80=9Cremind us that regardless of which religion we practice, we shar=
e common values of compassion, kindness and generosity.=E2=80=9D On one end=
 of the room sat large aluminum trays of Kabuli pulao, homemade okra, lenti=
ls, sabzi, kebabs, and at least two preparations of chicken; volunteers had=
 used the church=E2=80=99s tremendous gothic sanctuary to lay out boxes and=
 tote bags full of kitchen utensils, prayer mats, clothes, hygiene products=
, and children=E2=80=99s toys. The church is known for candlelit concerts o=
f Bach and Debussy, among other composers, but earlier that evening the fir=
st thing I had heard when I ducked out of the rain and into the parish hall=
 was the sound of three young Afghan boys sitting at a grand piano, smashin=
g away cheerfully at the keys.</p></div></div></div><div class=3D"gmail-row=
" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transpar=
ent;max-width:100%"><div class=3D"gmail-col-12" style=3D"box-sizing:border-=
box;border:0px;padding:0px 30px;background:transparent;width:1972.8px;max-w=
idth:100%"><div class=3D"gmail-article-bottom gmail-article-col gmail-mb-xs=
-6" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transp=
arent;margin-bottom:30px"></div></div></div><div class=3D"gmail-row" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;padding:0px;background:transparent;max=
-width:100%"><div class=3D"gmail-col-12" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;bor=
der:0px;padding:0px 30px;background:transparent;width:1972.8px;max-width:10=
0%"><div class=3D"gmail-article-col" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:=
0px;padding:0px;background:transparent"><div class=3D"gmail-mb-xs-12" style=
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHLOC1UPNlo&t=1s

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<div dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHLOC1UPNlo&amp;t=1s">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHLOC1UPNlo&amp;t=1s</a></div>

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Subject: [Salon] The book the West refuses to read
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https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2069979487354405281

[image: user avatar] <https://x.com/RnaudBertrand>
Arnaud Bertrand <https://x.com/RnaudBertrand>
@RnaudBertrand <https://x.com/RnaudBertrand>
This is genuinely shocking, and says so much about our approach to China. I
decided to check for independent reviews of the English version Xi
Jinping's latest book, published a year ago, to see what people had to say
about it since I hadn't read it myself. To my surprise, I couldn't find
any: not a single thoughtful review about the book out there! Even on
Amazon, check it for yourself (amazon.com/XI-JINPING-GOV=E2=80=A6
<https://www.amazon.com/XI-JINPING-GOVERNANCE-CHINA-V/dp/7119143360/>): the
book has only 3 ratings, that's it. No matter where you stand on China,
you=E2=80=99ve got to admit that=E2=80=99s pretty crazy: the sitting presid=
ent of the
world's rising superpower publishes a 700-page book explaining exactly what
he's doing and why, and we don=E2=80=99t even care to look. If there ever w=
as a
fact that illustrates just how willfully ignorant we are about China, this
is it. All the more because we then go spew the usual clich=C3=A9s around h=
ow
secretive and impenetrable the Chinese system is: the book is on Amazon for
$21 for crying out loud! Anyhow, this felt so wrong that I figured I'd fix
it. I bought the book, read it attentively and wrote what I hope you'll
agree is a thoughtful review of it. The book contains genuinely surprising
passages, such as Xi writing that oversight of the Communist Party by "the
judiciary, the public, and the media" was not just something the Party must
=E2=80=9Creadily accept,=E2=80=9D but something that he framed as historica=
lly decisive -
an essential component to "escaping the historical cycle of rise and fall"
that has doomed every dynasty in China's history. Other passage that I'm
sure would surprise many: a common narrative out there is that China blames
the West for the century of humiliation and is driven by revenge. Well, Xi
explains that's not true at all: the century of humiliation was China's own
mistake, originated in the Ming Dynasty's disastrous "policy of national
seclusion" that "resulted in China missing out on the opportunities
presented by the Industrial Revolution" and "led to China=E2=80=99s decline=
." All
in all, the book is remarkably self-reflective and thoughtful. For instance
Xi recognizes that his drive for =E2=80=9Cfull and rigorous internal govern=
ance=E2=80=9D -
including to rid the Party of corruption - risked "instill[ing] fear and
apprehension, or intimidate members into inaction.=E2=80=9D He emphasizes t=
he need
for pragmatism in this regard, codified in a framework called the =E2=80=9C=
Three
Distinctions=E2=80=9D that separates honest mistakes - made while experimen=
ting,
reforming, or operating without precedent - from deliberate violations
committed for personal gain. And many other surprises still. I found it a
genuinely fascinating read for anyone interested in how the Chinese system
works and how Xi thinks - or anyone interested in governance, period, as so
much of what he writes is pretty universally applicable. This is the link
to my review of the book, an article I titled "The Book the West Refuses to
Read": open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbert=E2=80=A6
<https://open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbertrand/p/the-book-the-west-refuses-t=
o-read?r=3D4r0pw&utm_campaign=3Dpost&utm_medium=3Dweb&showWelcomeOnShare=3D=
true>
<https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2069979487354405281/photo/1>
3:02 AM =C2=B7 Jun 25, 2026
<https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2069979487354405281>749.3KViews
<https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2069979487354405281>

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ion: 0.15s;"></button></div></div></div></div><div class=3D"gmail-flex gmai=
l-flex-col gmail-gap-3" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px solid rgb=
(228,234,236);margin:0px;padding:0px;display:flex;color:rgb(15,20,26);font-=
family:TwitterChirp,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,R=
oboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:15px"><div dir=3D"auto" class=3D=
"gmail-font-chirp gmail-max-w-full gmail-whitespace-pre-wrap gmail-break-wo=
rds gmail-text-text gmail-text-body gmail-font-normal" style=3D"box-sizing:=
border-box;border:0px solid rgb(228,234,236);margin:0px;padding:0px;max-wid=
th:100%;line-height:20px;word-break:break-word;white-space:pre-wrap"><span =
class=3D"gmail-font-chirp gmail-max-w-full gmail-whitespace-pre-wrap gmail-=
break-words gmail-text-inherit gmail-text-[length:inherit] gmail-font-norma=
l" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px solid rgb(228,234,236);margin:=
0px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;font-size:inherit;word-break:break-word;colo=
r:inherit">This is genuinely shocking, and says so much about our approach =
to China.

I decided to check for independent reviews of the English version Xi Jinpin=
g&#39;s latest book, published a year ago, to see what people had to say ab=
out it since I hadn&#39;t read it myself.

To my surprise, I couldn&#39;t find any: not a single thoughtful review abo=
ut the book out there! Even on Amazon, check it for yourself (</span><a rel=
=3D"noopener noreferrer" class=3D"gmail-font-chirp gmail-max-w-full gmail-w=
hitespace-pre-wrap gmail-break-words gmail-text-blue-500 gmail-text-[length=
:inherit] gmail-font-normal gmail-hover:underline" href=3D"https://www.amaz=
on.com/XI-JINPING-GOVERNANCE-CHINA-V/dp/7119143360/" target=3D"_blank" styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px solid rgb(228,234,236);margin:0px;pad=
ding:0px;color:rgb(29,155,240);text-decoration:inherit;max-width:100%;font-=
size:inherit;word-break:break-word">amazon.com/XI-JINPING-GOV=E2=80=A6</a><=
span class=3D"gmail-font-chirp gmail-max-w-full gmail-whitespace-pre-wrap g=
mail-break-words gmail-text-inherit gmail-text-[length:inherit] gmail-font-=
normal" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px solid rgb(228,234,236);ma=
rgin:0px;padding:0px;max-width:100%;font-size:inherit;word-break:break-word=
;color:inherit">): the book has only 3 ratings, that&#39;s it.

No matter where you stand on China, you=E2=80=99ve got to admit that=E2=80=
=99s pretty crazy: the sitting president of the world&#39;s rising superpow=
er publishes a 700-page book explaining exactly what he&#39;s doing and why=
, and we don=E2=80=99t even care to look.=20

If there ever was a fact that illustrates just how willfully ignorant we ar=
e about China, this is it.

All the more because we then go spew the usual clich=C3=A9s around how secr=
etive and impenetrable the Chinese system is: the book is on Amazon for $21=
 for crying out loud!

Anyhow, this felt so wrong that I figured I&#39;d fix it. I bought the book=
, read it attentively and wrote what I hope you&#39;ll agree is a thoughtfu=
l review of it.

The book contains genuinely surprising passages, such as Xi writing that ov=
ersight of the Communist Party by &quot;the judiciary, the public, and the =
media&quot; was not just something the Party must =E2=80=9Creadily accept,=
=E2=80=9D but something that he framed as historically decisive - an essent=
ial component to &quot;escaping the historical cycle of rise and fall&quot;=
 that has doomed every dynasty in China&#39;s history.

Other passage that I&#39;m sure would surprise many: a common narrative out=
 there is that China blames the West for the century of humiliation and is =
driven by revenge. Well, Xi explains that&#39;s not true at all: the centur=
y of humiliation was China&#39;s own mistake, originated in the Ming Dynast=
y&#39;s disastrous &quot;policy of national seclusion&quot; that &quot;resu=
lted in China missing out on the opportunities presented by the Industrial =
Revolution&quot; and &quot;led to China=E2=80=99s decline.&quot;

All in all, the book is remarkably self-reflective and thoughtful. For inst=
ance Xi recognizes that his drive for =E2=80=9Cfull and rigorous internal g=
overnance=E2=80=9D - including to rid the Party of corruption - risked &quo=
t;instill[ing] fear and apprehension, or intimidate members into inaction.=
=E2=80=9D He emphasizes the need for pragmatism in this regard, codified in=
 a framework called the =E2=80=9CThree Distinctions=E2=80=9D that separates=
 honest mistakes - made while experimenting, reforming, or operating withou=
t precedent - from deliberate violations committed for personal gain.

And many other surprises still. I found it a genuinely fascinating read for=
 anyone interested in how the Chinese system works and how Xi thinks - or a=
nyone interested in governance, period, as so much of what he writes is pre=
tty universally applicable.

This is the link to my review of the book, an article I titled &quot;The Bo=
ok the West Refuses to Read&quot;: </span><a rel=3D"noopener noreferrer" cl=
ass=3D"gmail-font-chirp gmail-max-w-full gmail-whitespace-pre-wrap gmail-br=
eak-words gmail-text-blue-500 gmail-text-[length:inherit] gmail-font-normal=
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d/p/the-book-the-west-refuses-to-read?r=3D4r0pw&amp;utm_campaign=3Dpost&amp=
;utm_medium=3Dweb&amp;showWelcomeOnShare=3Dtrue" target=3D"_blank" style=3D=
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:inherit;word-break:break-word">open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbert=E2=80=A6</=
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break:break-word;white-space:pre-wrap">3:02 AM =C2=B7 Jun 25, 2026</a></spa=
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ass=3D"gmail-font-chirp gmail-max-w-full gmail-whitespace-pre-wrap gmail-br=
eak-words gmail-text-text gmail-text-[length:inherit] gmail-font-bold" styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border:0px solid rgb(228,234,236);margin:0px;pad=
ding:0px;max-width:100%;font-size:inherit;font-weight:700;word-break:break-=
word;color:rgb(15,20,26)">749.3K</span><span class=3D"gmail-font-chirp gmai=
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*https://therealistreview.substack.com/p/a-legacy-betrayed?utm_source=3Dpos=
t-email-title&publication_id=3D4362854&post_id=3D203424067&utm_campaign=3De=
mail-post-title&isFreemail=3Dtrue&r=3D210kv&triedRedirect=3Dtrue&utm_medium=
=3Demail
<https://therealistreview.substack.com/p/a-legacy-betrayed?utm_source=3Dpos=
t-email-title&publication_id=3D4362854&post_id=3D203424067&utm_campaign=3De=
mail-post-title&isFreemail=3Dtrue&r=3D210kv&triedRedirect=3Dtrue&utm_medium=
=3Demail>*

*How the Democrats Betrayed the Legacy of FDR*An excerpt from 'The Great
Betrayal'; now available from O/R x Nation Books.
*James W. Carden* <https://substack.com/@jameswcarden>

*The Great Betrayal** is available now: *

*For immediate shipping: https://orbooks.com/catalog/the-great-betrayal/
<https://orbooks.com/catalog/the-great-betrayal/>*

*Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Great-Betrayal-Democrats-Became-Party/dp/16=
8219468X
<https://www.amazon.com/Great-Betrayal-Democrats-Became-Party/dp/168219468X=
>*

*Several years ago, I was commissioned by The Spectator magazine to examine
what was commonly said to be a =E2=80=9Ccivil war=E2=80=9D over foreign pol=
icy within the
Republican Party. Upon some consideration, I came to believe there was no
such thing. For all of President Donald Trump=E2=80=99s bluster and critici=
sm of
NATO, for all the hand-wringing by good Washington liberals over his shoddy
treatment of our =E2=80=9Callies,=E2=80=9D for all the pointed back and for=
th over Israel
between America First and neoconservative podcasters and op-ed writers=E2=
=80=94for
all that, the balance of forces within the Republican media and political
establishment were what they had always been: reflexively and unthinkingly
hawkish on Russia and China, and utterly beholden to the Israel Lobby. *

*As early as November 2024, I speculated that a second Trump administration
might well result in a war with Iran. Working through what was (or was not)
roiling the Republican Party led me to think more systematically about
something that had been bothering me for some time, and that was: *

*What exactly happened to the Democrats?*

*In the decade since Donald Trump was first elected President, the
Democratic Party has quite purposefully transformed itself into a Party of
War. The last two Democratic administrations, those of Barack Obama and Joe
Biden, embarked on regime change operations and proxy wars in places rather
remote from American shores and interests=E2=80=94in Libya, Syria, Yemen, a=
nd
Ukraine. On foreign affairs, today=E2=80=99s Democratic establishment (by w=
hich I
mean leading members of Congress, and the scholars and operatives within
Washington=E2=80=99s think tanks and media outlets) brooks no dissent. *

*Skeptics and opponents of Washington=E2=80=99s regime change projects and =
its
effective co-belligerency in a war between Ukraine and Russia have been
routinely denigrated by leading Democrats as =E2=80=9Capologists=E2=80=9D f=
or Russia. Part
of the reason for this is that the Democratic foreign policy establishment
has fallen prey to a kind of absolutist groupthink based on an imagined
world of absolute good and absolute evil that supposedly exists outside the
supremely insular urban bubbles in which these cosseted policymakers and
analysts live and work.*

*Another reason for the Democratic Party=E2=80=99s habitual hawkishness has=
 to do
with the lack of debate and competition within the party over national
security matters. Such was not always the case. For much of the eighty
years following the end of the Second World War, there existed a healthy,
sometimes fierce competition among Democrats regarding the US and its role
in the world: On one side, there were what I call the Rooseveltians; on the
other side, the Achesonians. *

*The competition between the two camps shaped US foreign policy throughout
the Cold War. It was only with the arrival of the post-Cold War era that
the competition dried up=E2=80=94and turned into a rout in which the Acheso=
nians
triumphed. The dueling camps take their names from, of course, President
Franklin D. Roosevelt (1882=E2=80=931945) and Secretary of State Dean Aches=
on
(1893=E2=80=931971). Born to patrician families a decade apart at the close=
 of
the nineteenth century, Franklin Roosevelt of Hyde Park, New York, and Dean
Acheson of Middletown, Connecticut, were products of the WASP gentry of
that time. Both men were educated at Groton, the Episcopalian boarding
school in Massachusetts, and went on, respectively, to Harvard and Yale,
before embarking on careers in law and politics.*

*As with many of his contemporaries, Acheson joined Roosevelt=E2=80=99s New=
 Deal
administration in 1933, but left shortly thereafter. Roosevelt=E2=80=99s =
=E2=80=9Cto the
manor born=E2=80=9D bearing rubbed the notoriously arrogant Acheson the wro=
ng way.
Years later, Acheson could barely conceal his annoyance when he recalled
his interactions with Roosevelt, writing that, =E2=80=9CIt was not gratifyi=
ng to
receive the easy greeting which milord might give a promising stable boy
and pull one=E2=80=99s forelock in return.=E2=80=9D Some disagreed. Winston=
 Churchill
famously said that meeting Roosevelt was =E2=80=9Dlike opening your first b=
ottle of
champagne.=E2=80=9D Parenthetically, the British prime minister knew a thin=
g or two
about the topic, having reputedly consumed forty-two thousand bottles of it
in his lifetime. Acheson returned to the Roosevelt administration in 1941
as an assistant secretary of state and remained in government service until
January 1953, having reached the pinnacle of the diplomatic profession as
secretary of state.*

*By that time, Roosevelt had been dead for nearly eight years and in the
ensuing period, Acheson, with the blessing of his boss, President Harry S.
Truman, crafted a foreign policy that was in many ways the antithesis of
that which Roosevelt had hoped to achieve after the Second World War=E2=80=
=94one
based on great power cooperation, non-interference, and reciprocity as
embodied in the principles of the UN Charter. A line from Roosevelt=E2=80=
=99s final
State of the Union message to Congress in January 1945 captures the essence
of the Rooseveltian creed: =E2=80=9CNations like individuals do not always =
see
alike or think alike, and international cooperation and progress are not
helped by any Nation assuming that it has a monopoly of wisdom or of
virtue.=E2=80=9D Achesonianism, on the other hand, is more =E2=80=9Cmy way =
or the highway.=E2=80=9D
Long before George W. Bush uttered =E2=80=9Ceither you are with us, or you =
are with
the terrorists,=E2=80=9D or Donald J. Trump threatened European leaders for=
 failing
to fall in line with his grand plan in Iran (whatever that is), Acheson was
threatening the prime minister of Canada for not doing enough to help Harry
Truman execute his own war of choice in Korea.*

*Critics of the Rooseveltian/Achesonian dichotomy may dismiss it as a mere
rhetorical dressing-up of the more common categories of Hawk and
Dove. While not entirely unfair, I would note that the
Rooseveltian/Achesonian categories are intended to encompass more than just
the proclivity of one or another politician or policymaker to favor war
over diplomacy. Unlike the Achesonians, those (few of us) who hold to the
Rooseveltian tradition in US foreign policy find inherent value in
Augustine=E2=80=99s Just War doctrine (410), the Treaty of Westphalia (1648=
), and
the UN Charter (1945). Rooseveltians make room for civilizational
difference and understand that cold wars are as corrosive (if not strictly
as lethal) over the long term as hot wars. The Achesonians harbor a
crusader mentality that is absent from the Rooseveltian tradition. Still
more, the Rooseveltians would have been puzzled by the idea, now au
courant, that everything everywhere is now the business of the US
government to adjudicate and rectify=E2=80=94by force if necessary.*

*And so: Truman and Acheson engineered a radical break with Roosevelt=E2=80=
=99s
post-war vision. The launch of the modern national security state in 1947,
followed by the adoption of National Security Council Memorandum 68, gave
rise to a militarized vision of =E2=80=98containment=E2=80=99 and set the c=
ourse of US
policy during the succeeding forty years.*

*Following the war in Korea and Truman=E2=80=99s decision not to run for a =
second
full term in 1952, the Rooseveltians made a comeback of sorts by way of
Governor Adlai Stevenson=E2=80=99s two bids for the White House in 1952 and=
 1956.
But by 1960, Stevenson was out and John F. Kennedy was in. The 1960 general
election was, on the surface anyway, a contest between two hawks, Kennedy
and Nixon; and with Kennedy=E2=80=99s victory and the appointment of Acheso=
n
proteges such as Dean Rusk, the Achesonians were back in business=E2=80=94o=
r so
they thought. To an extent, Kennedy borrowed from both the Rooseveltian and
Achesonian traditions. Until the near-catastrophe of the Cuban Missile
Crisis, his administration governed mainly in the Achesonian style. But
after successive crises, in Cuba and Berlin in 1961, and Cuba, again in
October 1962, Kennedy realized that a new approach was needed. There are
parallels between what occurred after Roosevelt died and after Kennedy was
assassinated. In both cases, the successors gutted the foreign policy
legacies of their predecessors. What is clear is that Kennedy=E2=80=99s suc=
cessor,
Lyndon Baines Johnson, expanded the war in Vietnam with the support of the
Achesonians Kennedy himself put into high office, including Rusk, Robert
McNamara, and McGeorge Bundy.*

*Ultimately, the pattern established in the early 1950s prevailed again in
the late 1960s: After unwise overreach in Asia, the Achesonians were once
again challenged by the Rooseveltians for the Democratic presidential
nomination. Yet in 1968, that quest ended not just in electoral loss, but
in tragedy with the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy. From 1968 to 1992,
the Republican Party held the White House for all but four years.*

*This period witnessed the defeat of the Rooseveltian George McGovern at
the hands of Richard Nixon in 1972, and later the internecine battles
between President Jimmy Carter=E2=80=99s Achesonian National Security Advis=
er
Zbigniew Brzezinski and his more cautious, Rooseveltian Secretary of State,
Cyrus Vance. It was during these wilderness years that the Achesonians,
chief among them a Washington socialite and scholar named Madeleine Korbel
Albright, began laying the groundwork for the Achesonians=E2=80=99 return t=
o power.
Albright, who had been a member of Brzezinski=E2=80=99s NSC, went on to pla=
y a
pivotal role in shaping and implementing US foreign policy under Bill
Clinton.*

*Besides Albright, the principal foreign policy power broker under
President Clinton was the former TIME Magazine correspondent, Strobe
Talbott. Talbott and Albright did much to mold the next generation of
Achesonian policymakers. Albright=E2=80=99s proteges include former Deputy
Secretary of State, Wendy Sherman, and Assistant Secretary of State for
European and Eurasian Affairs, James O=E2=80=99Brien, among many others. Up=
on her
passing in 2022, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius commented that,
=E2=80=9Cnearly every member of the Biden administration foreign policy tea=
m can
trace a lineage to Albright.=E2=80=9D*

*Which explains rather a lot.*

*By the turn of the century, the game was nearly up for the Rooseveltians.
Congresswoman Barbara Lee of California was the sole vote against granting
the Bush administration blanket authorization for its Global War on Terror
in 2001. Bush=E2=80=99s invasion of Iraq won 29 Democratic votes in the
Senate=E2=80=94among them three future Democratic nominees for president (K=
erry
2004, Clinton 2016, Biden 2020). But the pattern of the early 1950s and the
late 1960s reemerged after Iraq. After a period of presidential overreach,
this time under Bush-Cheney, a corrective appeared in the person of
Illinois Senator Barack Obama. But Obama, despite his high-flown,
Kennedy-esque campaign rhetoric, was an Achesonian at heart. Within days of
his historic election in 2008, Hillary Clinton was named secretary of
state, and longtime Republican, Robert Gates, was asked to remain at the
Pentagon. In terms of both personnel and policy, the Achesonians triumphed
during the Obama years and helped set the stage for a New Cold War.*

*Our story ends where it began: With a perilous Cold War between
nuclear-armed powers. The difference this time is that the New Cold War
involves the US facing off against an =E2=80=9Cauthoritarian axis=E2=80=9D =
that includes
China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. The Achesonians have triumphed, while
the Rooseveltians are nowhere to be found on the national stage. There are
now vanishingly few voices willing to speak out against the US foreign
policy establishment=E2=80=99s most dangerous delusions.*

*James W. Carden is editor of the Realist Review and a contributing editor
to The Nation magazine.*

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir=
=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><b style=3D"background-color:transparent"><fo=
nt color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><a href=3D"https://therealistr=
eview.substack.com/p/a-legacy-betrayed?utm_source=3Dpost-email-title&amp;pu=
blication_id=3D4362854&amp;post_id=3D203424067&amp;utm_campaign=3Demail-pos=
t-title&amp;isFreemail=3Dtrue&amp;r=3D210kv&amp;triedRedirect=3Dtrue&amp;ut=
m_medium=3Demail" target=3D"_blank">https://therealistreview.substack.com/p=
/a-legacy-betrayed?utm_source=3Dpost-email-title&amp;publication_id=3D43628=
54&amp;post_id=3D203424067&amp;utm_campaign=3Demail-post-title&amp;isFreema=
il=3Dtrue&amp;r=3D210kv&amp;triedRedirect=3Dtrue&amp;utm_medium=3Demail</a>=
</font></b></div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div><b><font color=3D"#=
000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><br></font></b></div><div><h1 style=3D"line=
-height:1.2141em;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0.5em;max-width:100%"><font c=
olor=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif" size=3D"4"><i>How the Democrats Be=
trayed the Legacy of FDR</i></font></h1><h2 style=3D"line-height:1.27275em;=
max-width:100%"><font size=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">=
An excerpt from &#39;The Great Betrayal&#39;; now available from O/R x Nati=
on Books.</font></h2><div style=3D"margin-bottom:1.45em;max-width:100%"><a =
href=3D"https://substack.com/@jameswcarden" style=3D"text-decoration:none;m=
argin:0px;max-width:100%;display:inline" target=3D"_blank"><b><font color=
=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">James W. Carden</font></b></a></div><d=
iv style=3D"max-width:100%"><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><font color=3D"#000=
000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><em style=3D"max-width:100%"><strong style=3D"=
max-width:100%">The Great Betrayal</strong></em><strong style=3D"max-width:=
100%"><span>=C2=A0</span>is available now:<span>=C2=A0</span></strong></fon=
t></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><strong style=3D"max-width:100%"><font co=
lor=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><span style=3D"max-width:100%">For =
immediate shipping:<span>=C2=A0</span></span><a href=3D"https://orbooks.com=
/catalog/the-great-betrayal/" style=3D"text-decoration:none;max-width:100%"=
 target=3D"_blank">https://orbooks.com/catalog/the-great-betrayal/</a></fon=
t></strong></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><strong style=3D"max-width:100%"=
><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><span style=3D"max-width:1=
00%">Amazon:<span>=C2=A0</span></span><a href=3D"https://www.amazon.com/Gre=
at-Betrayal-Democrats-Became-Party/dp/168219468X" style=3D"text-decoration:=
none;max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">https://www.amazon.com/Great-Betraya=
l-Democrats-Became-Party/dp/168219468X</a></font></strong></p></div><p styl=
e=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><sp=
an style=3D"max-width:100%">Several years ago, I was commissioned by<span>=
=C2=A0</span></span><em style=3D"max-width:100%">The Spectator</em><span st=
yle=3D"max-width:100%"><span>=C2=A0</span>magazine to examine what was comm=
only said to be a =E2=80=9Ccivil war=E2=80=9D over foreign policy within th=
e Republican Party. Upon some consideration, I came to believe there was no=
 such thing. For all of President Donald Trump=E2=80=99s bluster and critic=
ism of NATO, for all the hand-wringing by good Washington liberals over his=
 shoddy treatment of our =E2=80=9Callies,=E2=80=9D for all the pointed back=
 and forth over Israel between America First and neoconservative podcasters=
 and op-ed writers</span><span style=3D"max-width:100%">=E2=80=94for all th=
at,<span>=C2=A0</span></span><span style=3D"max-width:100%">the balance of =
forces within the Republican media and political establishment were what th=
ey had always been: reflexively and unthinkingly hawkish on Russia and Chin=
a, and utterly beholden to the Israel Lobby.<span>=C2=A0</span></span></fon=
t></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"ge=
orgia, serif">As early as November 2024, I speculated that a second Trump a=
dministration might well result in a war with Iran. Working through what wa=
s (or was not) roiling the Republican Party led me to think more systematic=
ally about something that had been bothering me for some time, and that was=
:<span>=C2=A0</span></font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font col=
or=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><span style=3D"max-width:100%">What =
exactly happened to the<span>=C2=A0</span></span><em style=3D"max-width:100=
%">Democrats</em><span style=3D"max-width:100%">?</span></font></b></p><p s=
tyle=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">=
In the decade since Donald Trump was first elected President, the Democrati=
c Party has quite purposefully transformed itself into a Party of War. The =
last two Democratic administrations, those of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, e=
mbarked on regime change operations and proxy wars in places rather remote =
from American shores and interests=E2=80=94in Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Ukra=
ine. On foreign affairs, today=E2=80=99s Democratic establishment (by which=
 I mean leading members of Congress, and the scholars and operatives within=
 Washington=E2=80=99s think tanks and media outlets) brooks no dissent.<spa=
n>=C2=A0</span></font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D=
"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><span style=3D"max-width:100%">Skeptics a=
nd opponents of Washington=E2=80=99s regime change projects and its effecti=
ve co-belligerency in a war between Ukraine and Russia have been routinely =
denigrated by leading Democrats as =E2=80=9Capologists=E2=80=9D for Russia.=
 Part of the reason for this is that the Democratic foreign policy establis=
hment has fallen prey to a kind of absolutist groupthink b</span><span styl=
e=3D"max-width:100%">ased on an imagined world of</span><span style=3D"max-=
width:100%"><span>=C2=A0</span>absolute good and absolute evil that suppose=
dly exists outside the supremely insular urban bubbles in which<span>=C2=A0=
</span></span><span style=3D"max-width:100%">these cosseted policymakers an=
d analysts</span><span style=3D"max-width:100%"><span>=C2=A0</span>live and=
 work.</span></font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#=
000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Another reason for the Democratic Party=E2=
=80=99s habitual hawkishness has to do with the lack of debate and competit=
ion within the party over national security matters. Such was not always th=
e case. For much of the eighty years following the end of the Second World =
War, there existed a healthy, sometimes fierce competition among Democrats =
regarding the US and its role in the world: On one side, there were what I =
call the Rooseveltians; on the other side, the Achesonians.<span>=C2=A0</sp=
an></font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" fa=
ce=3D"georgia, serif"><span style=3D"max-width:100%">The competition betwee=
n the two camps shaped US foreign policy throughout the Cold War. It was on=
ly with the arrival of the post</span><span style=3D"max-width:100%">-</spa=
n><span style=3D"max-width:100%">Cold War era that the competition dried up=
=E2=80=94and turned into a rout in which the Achesonians triumphed. The due=
ling camps take their names from, of course, President Franklin D. Roosevel=
t (1882</span><span style=3D"max-width:100%">=E2=80=93</span><span style=3D=
"max-width:100%">1945) and Secretary of State Dean Acheson (1893</span><spa=
n style=3D"max-width:100%">=E2=80=93</span><span style=3D"max-width:100%">1=
971). Born to patrician families a decade apart at the close of the<span>=
=C2=A0</span></span><span style=3D"max-width:100%">nineteenth century</span=
><span style=3D"max-width:100%">, Franklin Roosevelt of Hyde Park, New York=
, and Dean Acheson of Middletown, Connecticut, were products of the WASP ge=
ntry of that time. Both men were educated at Groton, the Episcopalian board=
ing school in Massachusetts, and went on, respectively, to Harvard and Yale=
, before embarking on careers in law and politics.</span></font></b></p><p =
style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"=
><span style=3D"max-width:100%">As with many of his contemporaries, Acheson=
 joined Roosevelt=E2=80=99s New Deal administration in 1933, but left short=
ly thereafter. Roosevelt=E2=80=99s<span>=C2=A0</span></span><span style=3D"=
max-width:100%">=E2=80=9C</span><span style=3D"max-width:100%">to the manor=
 born</span><span style=3D"max-width:100%">=E2=80=9D</span><span style=3D"m=
ax-width:100%"><span>=C2=A0</span>bearing rubbed the notoriously arrogant A=
cheson the wrong way. Years later, Acheson could barely conceal his annoyan=
ce when he recalled his interactions with Roosevelt, writing that, =E2=80=
=9CIt was not gratifying to receive the easy greeting which milord might gi=
ve a promising stable boy and pull one=E2=80=99s forelock in return.=E2=80=
=9D Some disagreed. Winston Churchill famously said that meeting Roosevelt =
was =E2=80=9Dlike opening your first bottle of champagne.=E2=80=9D Parenthe=
tically, the British prime minister knew a thing or two about the topic, ha=
ving reputedly consumed forty-two thousand bottles of it in his lifetime. A=
cheson returned to the Roosevelt administration in 1941 as an assistant sec=
retary of state and remained in government service until January 1953, havi=
ng reached the pinnacle of the diplomatic profession as secretary of state.=
</span></font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000=
" face=3D"georgia, serif"><span style=3D"max-width:100%">By that time, Roos=
evelt had been dead for nearly<span>=C2=A0</span></span><span style=3D"max-=
width:100%">eight</span><span style=3D"max-width:100%"><span>=C2=A0</span>y=
ears and in the ensuing period, Acheson, with the blessing of his boss, Pre=
sident Harry S. Truman, crafted a foreign policy that was in many ways the =
antithesis of that which Roosevelt had hoped to achieve after the Second Wo=
rld War=E2=80=94one based on great power cooperation, non-interference, and=
 reciprocity as embodied in the principles of the UN Charter. A line from R=
oosevelt=E2=80=99s final State of the Union message to Congress in January =
1945 captures the essence of the Rooseveltian creed: =E2=80=9CNations like =
individuals do not always see alike or think alike, and international coope=
ration and progress are not helped by any Nation assuming that it has a mon=
opoly of wisdom or of virtue.=E2=80=9D Achesonianism, on the other hand, is=
 more =E2=80=9Cmy way or the highway.=E2=80=9D Long before George W. Bush u=
ttered =E2=80=9Ceither you are with us, or you are with the terrorists,=E2=
=80=9D or Donald J. Trump threatened European leaders for failing to fall i=
n line with his grand plan in Iran (whatever that is), Acheson was threaten=
ing the prime minister of Canada for not doing enough to help Harry Truman =
execute his own war of choice in Korea.</span></font></b></p><p style=3D"ma=
x-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><span styl=
e=3D"max-width:100%">Critics of the Rooseveltian/Achesonian dichotomy may d=
ismiss it as a mere rhetorical dressing-up of the more<span>=C2=A0</span></=
span><span style=3D"max-width:100%">common categories of Hawk and Dove.<spa=
n>=C2=A0</span></span><span style=3D"max-width:100%">While not entirely unf=
air, I would note that the Rooseveltian/Achesonian categories are intended =
to encompass more than just the proclivity of one or another politician or =
policymaker to favor war over diplomacy. Unlike the Achesonians, those (few=
 of us) who hold to the Rooseveltian tradition in US foreign policy find in=
herent value in Augustine=E2=80=99s Just War doctrine (410), the Treaty of =
Westphalia (1648), and the UN Charter (1945). Rooseveltians make room for c=
ivilizational difference and understand that cold wars are as corrosive (if=
 not strictly as lethal) over the long term as hot wars. The Achesonians ha=
rbor a crusader mentality that is absent from the Rooseveltian tradition. S=
till more, the Rooseveltians would have been puzzled by the idea, now au co=
urant, that everything everywhere is now the business of the US government =
to adjudicate and rectify=E2=80=94by force if necessary.</span></font></b><=
/p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, =
serif">And so: Truman and Acheson engineered a radical break with Roosevelt=
=E2=80=99s post-war vision. The launch of the modern national security stat=
e in 1947, followed by the adoption of National Security Council Memorandum=
 68, gave rise to a militarized vision of =E2=80=98containment=E2=80=99 and=
 set the course of US policy during the succeeding forty years.</font></b><=
/p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, =
serif">Following the war in Korea and Truman=E2=80=99s decision not to run =
for a second full term in 1952, the Rooseveltians made a comeback of sorts =
by way of Governor Adlai Stevenson=E2=80=99s two bids for the White House i=
n 1952 and 1956. But by 1960, Stevenson was out and John F. Kennedy was in.=
 The 1960 general election was, on the surface anyway, a contest between tw=
o hawks, Kennedy and Nixon; and with Kennedy=E2=80=99s victory and the appo=
intment of Acheson proteges such as Dean Rusk, the Achesonians were back in=
 business=E2=80=94or so they thought. To an extent, Kennedy borrowed from b=
oth the Rooseveltian and Achesonian traditions. Until the near-catastrophe =
of the Cuban Missile Crisis, his administration governed mainly in the Ache=
sonian style. But after successive crises, in Cuba and Berlin in 1961, and =
Cuba, again in October 1962, Kennedy realized that a new approach was neede=
d. There are parallels between what occurred after Roosevelt died and after=
 Kennedy was assassinated. In both cases, the successors gutted the foreign=
 policy legacies of their predecessors. What is clear is that Kennedy=E2=80=
=99s successor, Lyndon Baines Johnson, expanded the war in Vietnam with the=
 support of the Achesonians Kennedy himself put into high office, including=
 Rusk, Robert McNamara, and McGeorge Bundy.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-w=
idth:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Ultimately, t=
he pattern established in the early 1950s prevailed again in the late 1960s=
: After unwise overreach in Asia, the Achesonians were once again challenge=
d by the Rooseveltians for the Democratic presidential nomination. Yet in 1=
968, that quest ended not just in electoral loss, but in tragedy with the a=
ssassination of Robert F. Kennedy. From 1968 to 1992, the Republican Party =
held the White House for all but four years.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-=
width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">This period =
witnessed the defeat of the Rooseveltian George McGovern at the hands of Ri=
chard Nixon in 1972, and later the internecine battles between President Ji=
mmy Carter=E2=80=99s Achesonian National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezins=
ki and his more cautious, Rooseveltian Secretary of State, Cyrus Vance. It =
was during these wilderness years that the Achesonians, chief among them a =
Washington socialite and scholar named Madeleine Korbel Albright, began lay=
ing the groundwork for the Achesonians=E2=80=99 return to power. Albright, =
who had been a member of Brzezinski=E2=80=99s NSC, went on to play a pivota=
l role in shaping and implementing US foreign policy under Bill Clinton.</f=
ont></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"=
georgia, serif">Besides Albright, the principal foreign policy power broker=
 under President Clinton was the former TIME Magazine correspondent, Strobe=
 Talbott. Talbott and Albright did much to mold the next generation of Ache=
sonian policymakers. Albright=E2=80=99s proteges include former Deputy Secr=
etary of State, Wendy Sherman, and Assistant Secretary of State for Europea=
n and Eurasian Affairs, James O=E2=80=99Brien, among many others. Upon her =
passing in 2022, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius commented that, =
=E2=80=9Cnearly every member of the Biden administration foreign policy tea=
m can trace a lineage to Albright.=E2=80=9D</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-w=
idth:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Which explain=
s rather a lot.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D=
"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">By the turn of the century, the game was =
nearly up for the Rooseveltians. Congresswoman Barbara Lee of California wa=
s the sole vote against granting the Bush administration blanket authorizat=
ion for its Global War on Terror in 2001. Bush=E2=80=99s invasion of Iraq w=
on 29 Democratic votes in the Senate=E2=80=94among them three future Democr=
atic nominees for president (Kerry 2004, Clinton 2016, Biden 2020). But the=
 pattern of the early 1950s and the late 1960s reemerged after Iraq. After =
a period of presidential overreach, this time under Bush-Cheney, a correcti=
ve appeared in the person of Illinois Senator Barack Obama. But Obama, desp=
ite his high-flown, Kennedy-esque campaign rhetoric, was an Achesonian at h=
eart. Within days of his historic election in 2008, Hillary Clinton was nam=
ed secretary of state, and longtime Republican, Robert Gates, was asked to =
remain at the Pentagon. In terms of both personnel and policy, the Achesoni=
ans triumphed during the Obama years and helped set the stage for a New Col=
d War.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font color=3D"#000000"=
 face=3D"georgia, serif">Our story ends where it began: With a perilous Col=
d War between nuclear-armed powers. The difference this time is that the Ne=
w Cold War involves the US facing off against an =E2=80=9Cauthoritarian axi=
s=E2=80=9D that includes China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. The Achesoni=
ans have triumphed, while the Rooseveltians are nowhere to be found on the =
national stage. There are now vanishingly few voices willing to speak out a=
gainst the US foreign policy establishment=E2=80=99s most dangerous delusio=
ns.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><em style=3D"max-width:100%">=
<strong style=3D"max-width:100%"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, s=
erif">James W. Carden is editor of the Realist Review and a contributing ed=
itor to The Nation magazine.</font></strong></em></p></div></div>
</div>
</div></div>

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Democrats who can=E2=80=99t tell the truth about Israel risk losing the
authenticity arms race, writes a former U.S. intel analyst for the Defense
Intelligence Agency.
=CD=8F   =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F   =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F   =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=
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View in browser
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5jZS1tYWdhLWlzcmFlbC1pcmFuLWRlbW9jcmF0cz91dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249ZW1haWwtcG9zdCZyP=
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4ntu6K-zlARNQMw_v_kK6FMeJ5y2T2KFzg7Wk?>
<https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly96ZXRlby5jb20vcC9qZC12YW=
5jZS1tYWdhLWlzcmFlbC1pcmFuLWRlbW9jcmF0cz91dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249ZW1haWwtaGFsZi1wb=
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.OJ4n73MgIZLgWSALXvdf2LSRm5SuAUpn4I0RJH8zvHY?>
Don=E2=80=99t Let JD Vance and MAGA Falsely Claim the Mantle of the =E2=80=
=98Tough on
Israel=E2=80=99 Party
<https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=3D2325511&post_id=3D2037=
47319&utm_source=3Dpost-email-title&utm_campaign=3Demail-post-title&isFreem=
ail=3Dfalse&r=3D7x0p7&token=3DeyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzI5Nzg2NywicG9zdF9pZCI6MjAzN=
zQ3MzE5LCJpYXQiOjE3ODI2NTU4OTMsImV4cCI6MTc4NTI0Nzg5MywiaXNzIjoicHViLTIzMjU1=
MTEiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.s2zgtJjoysIr63dyhnHKGeqf85ufnQ0HlLoXM1_=
6_d4>Democrats
who can=E2=80=99t tell the truth about Israel risk losing the authenticity =
arms
race, writes a former U.S. intel analyst for the Defense Intelligence
Agency.

Harrison Mann <https://substack.com/@harrisonmann>
Jun 28
=E2=88=99
Paid
=E2=88=99
Guest post
<https://substack.com/@harrisonmann>

<https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=3D2325511&post_id=3D2037=
47319&utm_source=3Dsubstack&isFreemail=3Dfalse&submitLike=3Dtrue&token=3Dey=
J1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzI5Nzg2NywicG9zdF9pZCI6MjAzNzQ3MzE5LCJyZWFjdGlvbiI6IuKdpCIsI=
mlhdCI6MTc4MjY1NTg5MywiZXhwIjoxNzg1MjQ3ODkzLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMjMyNTUxMSIsInN1=
YiI6InJlYWN0aW9uIn0.m_rJRZELzoshmANeBSXdu7gB2d0-Dm6Xmhvcku3VKo4&utm_medium=
=3Demail&utm_campaign=3Demail-reaction&r=3D7x0p7>
<https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=3D2325511&post_id=3D2037=
47319&utm_source=3Dsubstack&utm_medium=3Demail&isFreemail=3Dfalse&comments=
=3Dtrue&token=3DeyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzI5Nzg2NywicG9zdF9pZCI6MjAzNzQ3MzE5LCJpYXQ=
iOjE3ODI2NTU4OTMsImV4cCI6MTc4NTI0Nzg5MywiaXNzIjoicHViLTIzMjU1MTEiLCJzdWIiOi=
Jwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.s2zgtJjoysIr63dyhnHKGeqf85ufnQ0HlLoXM1_6_d4&r=3D7x0p7=
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47319&utm_source=3Dsubstack&utm_medium=3Demail&utm_content=3Dshare&utm_camp=
aign=3Demail-share&action=3Dshare&triggerShare=3Dtrue&isFreemail=3Dfalse&r=
=3D7x0p7&token=3DeyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzI5Nzg2NywicG9zdF9pZCI6MjAzNzQ3MzE5LCJpYX=
QiOjE3ODI2NTU4OTMsImV4cCI6MTc4NTI0Nzg5MywiaXNzIjoicHViLTIzMjU1MTEiLCJzdWIiO=
iJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.s2zgtJjoysIr63dyhnHKGeqf85ufnQ0HlLoXM1_6_d4>
<https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9vcGVuLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbS=
9wdWIvemV0ZW8vcC9qZC12YW5jZS1tYWdhLWlzcmFlbC1pcmFuLWRlbW9jcmF0cz91dG1fc291c=
mNlPXN1YnN0YWNrJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPWVtYWlsLXJlc3RhY2st=
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rSWpveE16STVOemcyTnl3aWNHOXpkRjlwWkNJNk1qQXpOelEzTXpFNUxDSnBZWFFpT2pFM09EST=
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UxDSnpkV0lpT2lKd2IzTjBMWEpsWVdOMGFXOXVJbjAuczJ6Z3RKam95c0lyNjNkeWhuSEtHZXFm=
ODV1Zm5RMEhsTG9YTTFfNl9kNCIsInAiOjIwMzc0NzMxOSwicyI6MjMyNTUxMSwiZiI6ZmFsc2U=
sInUiOjEzMjk3ODY3LCJpYXQiOjE3ODI2NTU4OTMsImV4cCI6MjA5ODIzMTg5MywiaXNzIjoicH=
ViLTAiLCJzdWIiOiJsaW5rLXJlZGlyZWN0In0.YabQ_mU-5IP0LvN9S2v9HdlRvajUFCTIxWGMu=
OTNW5k?&utm_source=3Dsubstack&utm_medium=3Demail>

READ IN APP
<https://open.substack.com/pub/zeteo/p/jd-vance-maga-israel-iran-democrats?=
utm_source=3Demail&redirect=3Dapp-store&utm_campaign=3Demail-read-in-app>

<https://substack.com/redirect/ba5b923f-a82f-48c5-804e-ac5d0583abe4?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
*Vance
speaks to reporters after the U.S. and Iran held talks at the Lake Lucerne
Summit on June 22, 2026, Switzerland. Photo by Nathan Howard-Pool/Getty
Images*

Something=E2=80=99s got to be wrong when JD Vance starts making sense. Last=
 week,
while defending his boss=E2=80=99s Iran dealmaking, the vice president caut=
ioned
<https://substack.com/redirect/ad259099-a5ed-47b7-9d91-76817293ba25?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
against conflating criticism of Israel with antisemitism, and delivered a
sharper dressing-down
<https://substack.com/redirect/67c0525c-b674-4421-afb2-333ce8658d62?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
of the Israeli government than I=E2=80=99ve heard from nearly any politicia=
n on
either side of the aisle:

=E2=80=9COver the past three months, two-thirds of the defensive weapons th=
at have
protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by
American tax dollars =E2=80=A6 anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest p=
roblem
is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell the
reality of the situation that country is in.=E2=80=9D

Refreshing, uncommon clarity for any politician =E2=80=93 that should not m=
ake you
forget Vance=E2=80=99s servile cheerleading for the war his boss just launc=
hed
alongside Israel and his sympathy for neo-Nazis at home
<https://substack.com/redirect/ef686a27-86fc-42ee-bc0f-04525c975421?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
and abroad
<https://substack.com/redirect/a97d0442-c66e-4dd9-982f-0a909214db12?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
.

Hearing tough talk on Israel from Vance, the presumptive 2028 Republican
nominee, I had a frightening premonition: Vance and other younger
Republicans
<https://substack.com/redirect/3051fc57-e4b4-4a3b-a755-4be8dccffe86?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
claiming the anti-war, tough-on-Israel lane and winning over voters
frustrated with Democrats=E2=80=99 perceived incoherence on both issues.

Pro-Palestinian voters shouldn=E2=80=99t trust Vance=E2=80=99s new talking =
points, but
Democrats *should* be asking themselves why Vance can even pretend to be on
the right side of U.S.-Israel policy, and what they can do about it.
*By any measure, Trump-Vance has been the most pro-Israel administration in
decades*

Make no mistake: The Trump-Vance administration has one of the worst
records on Israel in U.S. history, whatever they may say at the podium. The
Biden administration=E2=80=99s unconditional military support for Israel wa=
s
criminal, exorbitant, and wasteful =E2=80=93 and still dwarfed by the blood=
 and
treasure Trump has spent launching not one but two wars against Iran,
which, whatever Trump=E2=80=99s motivations, Israeli Prime Minister Benjami=
n
Netanyahu understood as personal gifts. Biden spent $20-$30 billion arming
<https://substack.com/redirect/c7212323-d0a7-4fdc-b979-5a94d97161d6?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
the Israeli military and launching associated U.S. military operations
<https://substack.com/redirect/e2eb7d7e-46d3-4f15-9baf-11d783b661d8?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>,
while Trump=E2=80=99s second Iran war alone cost *at least
<https://substack.com/redirect/d9c42ef6-ee4c-4169-80ca-3f841023270f?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>*$70
billion
<https://substack.com/redirect/d9c42ef6-ee4c-4169-80ca-3f841023270f?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>.
Biden sacrificed half a dozen U.S. troops for his post-October 7
operations, while Trump=E2=80=99s war cost at least 13 servicemembers their=
 lives.
Trump even surpassed Biden=E2=80=99s extensive diplomatic cover for Israel,
establishing the faux-UN Board of Peace in an attempt to add a patina of
international legitimacy to the Israeli government=E2=80=99s ethnic cleansi=
ng in
Gaza. Rhetoric aside, the Trump administration has backed Netanyahu beyond
his wildest dreams. And JD Vance was along for the ride to sell Trump=E2=80=
=99s
blunders, insulting Americans=E2=80=99 intelligence with the argument
<https://substack.com/redirect/0ea89fd1-853e-4e1e-a892-97803ba28b22?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
that the Iran war wouldn=E2=80=99t be like the Middle East interventions he=
=E2=80=99d
previously opposed, because =E2=80=9Cwe have a smart president whereas in t=
he past,
we=E2=80=99ve had dumb presidents.=E2=80=9D For those wondering whether the=
y can trust
Vance=E2=80=99s anti-war bona fides, they=E2=80=99ve proven about as durabl=
e as his
never-Trump credentials
<https://substack.com/redirect/f719f2a3-db26-493a-bb21-7f99e9bde0c4?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
.
*Don=E2=80=99t mistake unprecedented tough talk for unprecedented pressure*

Vance=E2=80=99s tough talk on Israel comes as Trump is apparently trying to=
 force
Netanyahu to end his invasion of Lebanon, which threatens to upend
U.S.-Iran peace talks. It would be an undeniable strategic, economic, and
moral victory for *any* U.S. administration to use its immense leverage to
prevent the Israeli government from attacking and oppressing its neighbors,
but it=E2=80=99s too soon to say if Trump has actually done that. While the=
re are
promising signs, such as Netanyahu largely
<https://substack.com/redirect/4ba8388f-3a77-4576-a54b-afa1dfa59f89?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
restraining the Israeli military in Lebanon, he still refuses to withdraw,
as demanded by Tehran and the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. Until
Trump actually uses the leverage he and Vance are bragging about, they=E2=
=80=99re
still just the new cast
<https://substack.com/redirect/93b004dc-322e-4498-ae5f-7b25b666df25?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
of the Biden administration=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9Cmad at Netanyahu=E2=80=9D ac=
t.
*Of course, Vance can=E2=80=99t be trusted =E2=80=93 so why does it matter =
what he says
about Israel?*

Almost every Republican and the vast majority of Democrats are still unable
to discuss Gaza or Israel policy without gaslighting, lying, or saying
something reprehensible, which is why these issues have become an easy way
for candidates who *can *address them to establish credibility. The 66% of
Democrats, 55% of independents, and 20% of Republicans
<https://substack.com/redirect/c3645813-f5bf-4bf0-bf1f-bcc9826679c9?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
=E2=80=93 including a whopping 63% of Republicans under 45
<https://substack.com/redirect/1f259ba6-35da-4dd4-a27d-fb965d0cfcd0?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
=E2=80=93 who want to reduce U.S. support for Israel rarely see their convi=
ctions
reflected by their elected leadership. Unfortunately, with so few
politicians speaking honestly about Israel and so many voters
understandably desperate for authenticity, criticizing Israel is also a
shortcut for right-wing opportunists to establish *their* credibility.
Anecdotally, I know pro-Palestine advocates and activists who are committed
to human rights and would never endorse the conspiracy theories and racism
of Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene but are nonetheless grateful
for their positions on Gaza.

Enter JD Vance, who, like Trump in 2024
<https://substack.com/redirect/6fa69ca4-6959-4949-baa0-96d343e08c3a?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>,
is trying to craft his own =E2=80=9Cpeacemaker=E2=80=9D reputation
<https://substack.com/redirect/74b764ce-b2f3-4548-8f64-e33c80d1e8b5?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
despite all evidence to the contrary. And if Vance calculates he can
deflect attacks from pro-Israel donors and commentators =E2=80=93 and with =
Trump=E2=80=99s
blessing, he might =E2=80=93 he could keep up his anti-Israel schtick throu=
gh 2028.
If that happens, =E2=80=9Cthen you kind of have a runaway train here becaus=
e
Democrats are going to have a long debate on [Israel] in their primary,=E2=
=80=9D
compared to Republicans already unified under Trump=E2=80=99s anointed succ=
essor,
says Hamid Bendaas, communications director at IMEU Policy Project
<https://substack.com/redirect/9ac218a8-0957-4a5e-a018-183e7f6dcbba?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>,
a pro-Palestine advocacy organization, who has extensively researched voter
attitudes about U.S. Israel policy. In other words, when you look at
Democrats=E2=80=99 moderate-heavy 2028 roster, there=E2=80=99s a chance Van=
ce goes to the
debate stage with a Democrat who sounds less convincing on Israel than he
does.

Democrats can=E2=80=99t afford to be afraid when their euphemisms and ambig=
uity,
however well-intentioned, cede credibility to self-styled truth-tellers
like Tucker Carlson, or, it seems, JD Vance.

If they can overcome their fears of blowback from donors or party leaders,
Democrats still stand to win, as this week=E2=80=99s sweep
<https://substack.com/redirect/8c921160-e4aa-431b-9127-a569266a07fa?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
of New York Democratic congressional primaries by outspoken critics of
Israel showed.

=E2=80=9CYou can be as critical as you want about Israel without getting pu=
shback
from voters,=E2=80=9D Bendaas tells me, =E2=80=9Ccertainly in the Democrati=
c party but with
younger voters regardless of party at this point.=E2=80=9D

If Democrats don=E2=80=99t want to get outflanked from the left by Republic=
ans on
foreign policy =E2=80=93 a risk I take seriously after watching some Democr=
atic
lawmakers criticize Trump=E2=80=99s Iran deal to the extent it seems like t=
hey
*want* him to go back to war =E2=80=93 they need to articulate their own ba=
se=E2=80=99s
beliefs at least as well as an opportunistic hack like JD Vance.

*Harrison Mann is a former US Army major and executive officer of the
Defense Intelligence Agency=E2=80=99s Middle East/Africa Regional Center wh=
o
resigned in protest of his office=E2=80=99s support for Israel=E2=80=99s wa=
r in Gaza under
the Biden administration. He is currently with the group Win Without War
and recently became a Zeteo contributor.*
*The views expressed in this article are the author=E2=80=99s own and do no=
t
necessarily reflect those of Zeteo.*
------------------------------

*Check out more from Zeteo: *
[image: Don=E2=80=99t Be Fooled. The Netanyahu-Backed Plan to 'End' U.S. Mi=
litary
Aid to Israel Is a Scam]
<https://substack.com/redirect/29ea67d4-e526-4885-9e49-43ce2149d18e?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
Don=E2=80=99t Be Fooled. The Netanyahu-Backed Plan to 'End' U.S. Military A=
id to
Israel Is a Scam
<https://substack.com/redirect/29ea67d4-e526-4885-9e49-43ce2149d18e?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>

Josh Paul of A New Policy
<https://substack.com/profile/323844179-josh-paul-of-a-new-policy>
=C2=B7
Jun 25
Read full story
<https://substack.com/redirect/29ea67d4-e526-4885-9e49-43ce2149d18e?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
[image: Is Israel Dividing Fox with Trump?]
<https://substack.com/redirect/442c59bf-3af4-41e3-af5a-f2c3851267d9?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
Is Israel Dividing Fox with Trump?
<https://substack.com/redirect/442c59bf-3af4-41e3-af5a-f2c3851267d9?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>

Justin Baragona <https://substack.com/profile/251377451-justin-baragona>
=C2=B7
Jun 25
Read full story
<https://substack.com/redirect/442c59bf-3af4-41e3-af5a-f2c3851267d9?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
[image: Trump Told Netanyahu Everybody, Including =E2=80=98All the Jews,=E2=
=80=99 Is Sick
of Him]
<https://substack.com/redirect/104d5a0e-9808-41f1-97d6-c8c6a5f51ec7?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>
Trump Told Netanyahu Everybody, Including =E2=80=98All the Jews,=E2=80=99 I=
s Sick of Him
<https://substack.com/redirect/104d5a0e-9808-41f1-97d6-c8c6a5f51ec7?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>

Martin Pengelly <https://substack.com/profile/479704883-martin-pengelly>
=C2=B7
Jun 24
Read full story
<https://substack.com/redirect/104d5a0e-9808-41f1-97d6-c8c6a5f51ec7?j=3DeyJ=
1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q>

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--0000000000003744b4065552fdad
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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir=
=3D"auto"><blockquote type=3D"cite"><div dir=3D"ltr"><br></div></blockquote=
><blockquote type=3D"cite"><div dir=3D"ltr"><img src=3D"https://eotrx.subst=
ackcdn.com/o/bff3416d8d21809a/p.gif?token=3DeyJtIjoiPDIwMjYwNjI4MTQwNjEwLjM=
uY2FhMjM1YmJiNmMyNDg4NEBtZzEuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tPiIsInUiOjEzMjk3ODY3LCJyIjoicm=
1lbm9ubnljQGdtYWlsLmNvbSIsImQiOiJtZzEuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tIiwicCI6MjAzNzQ3MzE5L=
CJ0IjoibmV3c2xldHRlciIsImEiOiJvbmx5X3BhaWQiLCJzIjoyMzI1NTExLCJjIjoicG9zdCIs=
ImYiOmZhbHNlLCJwb3NpdGlvbiI6InRvcCIsImlhdCI6MTc4MjY1NTg5MywiZXhwIjoxNzg1MjQ=
3ODkzLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMCIsInN1YiI6ImVvIn0.0A7mxP1fU0BpnnpzMxbD56AtR_X1XNZ0nj=
h_2eJIezQ" alt=3D"" width=3D"1" height=3D"1" border=3D"0" style=3D"height:1=
px!important;width:1px!important;border-width:0!important;margin-top:0!impo=
rtant;margin-bottom:0!important;margin-right:0!important;margin-left:0!impo=
rtant;padding-top:0!important;padding-bottom:0!important;padding-right:0!im=
portant;padding-left:0!important"><div style=3D"display:none;font-size:1px;=
color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opacity:0;overfl=
ow:hidden">Democrats who can=E2=80=99t tell the truth about Israel risk los=
ing the authenticity arms race, writes a former U.S. intel analyst for the =
Defense Intelligence Agency.</div><div style=3D"display:none;font-size:1px;=
color:#333333;line-height:1px;max-height:0px;max-width:0px;opacity:0;overfl=
ow:hidden">=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=
=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=
=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=
=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =
=E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=
=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=
=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =
=C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =
=C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=
=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=
=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=
=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=
=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =
=E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=
=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=
=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=A0 =E2=80=87 =
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abel=3D"Post header" style=3D"font-size:16px;line-height:26px"><h1 dir=3D"a=
uto" style=3D"direction:auto;text-align:start;unicode-bidi:isolate;color:rg=
b(54,55,55);font-family:Lora,sans-serif;font-weight:600;margin:0;line-heigh=
t:36px;font-size:32px"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/app-link/post?public=
ation_id=3D2325511&amp;post_id=3D203747319&amp;utm_source=3Dpost-email-titl=
e&amp;utm_campaign=3Demail-post-title&amp;isFreemail=3Dfalse&amp;r=3D7x0p7&=
amp;token=3DeyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzI5Nzg2NywicG9zdF9pZCI6MjAzNzQ3MzE5LCJpYXQiOjE=
3ODI2NTU4OTMsImV4cCI6MTc4NTI0Nzg5MywiaXNzIjoicHViLTIzMjU1MTEiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3=
N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.s2zgtJjoysIr63dyhnHKGeqf85ufnQ0HlLoXM1_6_d4" style=3D"col=
or:rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank">Don=E2=80=99t Let =
JD Vance and MAGA Falsely Claim the Mantle of the =E2=80=98Tough on Israel=
=E2=80=99 Party</a></h1><h3 dir=3D"auto" style=3D"direction:auto;text-align=
:start;unicode-bidi:isolate;font-family:&#39;SF Pro Display&#39;,-apple-sys=
tem-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,=
Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI=
 Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weight:normal;margin:4px 0 0;col=
or:#777777;line-height:24px;font-size:18px;margin-top:12px">Democrats who c=
an=E2=80=99t tell the truth about Israel risk losing the authenticity arms =
race, writes a former U.S. intel analyst for the Defense Intelligence Agenc=
y.</h3><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=
=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"margin:1em 0;height:20px"><tbody><tr><td>=
<table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" =
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vertical-align:middle"><div style=3D"list-style:none;font-size:11px;line-he=
ight:20px;text-decoration:unset;color:rgb(54,55,55);margin:0;font-family:&#=
39;SF Compact&#39;,-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont=
,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoj=
i&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weight:500;t=
ext-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.2px"><a style=3D"list-style:none;co=
lor:rgb(54,55,55);margin:0;font-size:11px;line-height:20px;font-family:&#39=
;SF Compact&#39;,-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&=
#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&=
#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weight:500;tex=
t-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.2px;text-decoration:none" href=3D"htt=
ps://substack.com/@harrisonmann" target=3D"_blank">Harrison Mann</a></div><=
/td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" wid=
th=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td=
 style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><div style=3D"list-style:none;font-size:11=
px;line-height:20px;text-decoration:unset;color:rgb(119,119,119);margin:0;f=
ont-family:&#39;SF Compact&#39;,-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,Blink=
MacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;App=
le Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font=
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<td width=3D"4" style=3D"min-width:4px"></td><td style=3D"vertical-align:mi=
ddle"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=
=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><di=
v style=3D"list-style:none;font-size:11px;line-height:20px;text-decoration:=
unset;color:rgb(119,119,119);margin:0;font-family:&#39;SF Compact&#39;,-app=
le-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Rob=
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h:4px"></td><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><div style=3D"list-style:no=
ne;font-size:11px;line-height:20px;text-decoration:unset;color:rgb(94,73,21=
7);margin:0;font-family:&#39;SF Compact&#39;,-apple-system,system-ui,-apple=
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erif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Sym=
bol&#39;;font-weight:500;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.2px">Paid=
</div></td></tr></tbody></table></td><td width=3D"4" style=3D"min-width:4px=
"></td><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><table role=3D"presentation" wid=
th=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td=
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px;line-height:20px;text-decoration:unset;color:rgb(119,119,119);margin:0;f=
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MacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;App=
le Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font=
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 UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39=
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h:38px;box-sizing:border-box;width:38px" target=3D"_blank"><img src=3D"http=
s://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ubXF!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl=
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on%3Fv%3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dnone%26stroke%3D%2523808080%26strokeWidth=
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=3D"18" alt=3D"" style=3D"max-width:550px;border:none!important;vertical-al=
ign:middle"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td><t=
d align=3D"right"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" =
cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:=
middle"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacin=
g=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td align=3D"center"><a href=3D"https:=
//open.substack.com/pub/zeteo/p/jd-vance-maga-israel-iran-democrats?utm_sou=
rce=3Demail&amp;redirect=3Dapp-store&amp;utm_campaign=3Demail-read-in-app" =
style=3D"font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe =
UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;=
Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;display:inline-block;font-wei=
ght:500;border:1px solid rgb(0,0,0,.1);border-radius:9999px;text-transform:=
uppercase;font-size:12px;line-height:12px;padding:9px 14px;text-decoration:=
none;color:rgb(119,119,119)" target=3D"_blank"><div style=3D"font-size:16px=
;line-height:26px;display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle;max-width:0;mi=
n-height:18px"></div><span style=3D"vertical-align:middle;margin-right:4px"=
>READ IN APP</span><img src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ET-_=
!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstac=
k.com%2Ficon%2FLucideArrowUpRight%3Fv%3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dnone%26str=
oke%3D%2523808080%26strokeWidth%3D2" width=3D"18" height=3D"18" style=3D"mi=
n-width:18px;min-height:18px;border:none;vertical-align:middle;margin-right=
:0;margin-left:0;max-width:18px" alt=3D""></a></td></tr></tbody></table></t=
d></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr height=3D"16=
"><td height=3D"16" style=3D"font-size:0px;line-height:0">=C2=A0</td></tr><=
/tbody></table></div></div><div dir=3D"auto" style=3D"padding:32px 0 0 0;fo=
nt-size:16px;line-height:26px"><div dir=3D"auto" style=3D"text-align:initia=
l;font-size:16px;line-height:26px;width:100%;word-break:break-word;margin-b=
ottom:16px;font-family:&#39;SF Pro Display&#39;,-apple-system,system-ui,Bli=
nkMacSystemFont,&#39;Inter&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,s=
ans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe U=
I Symbol&#39;;font-weight:400"><div style=3D"font-size:16px;line-height:26p=
x;margin:32px auto;margin-top:0"><table width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspa=
cing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"text-align:center"></t=
d><td align=3D"left" width=3D"1456" style=3D"text-align:center"><a href=3D"=
https://substack.com/redirect/ba5b923f-a82f-48c5-804e-ac5d0583abe4?j=3DeyJ1=
IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"paddin=
g:0;width:auto;height:auto;border:none;text-decoration:none;display:block;m=
argin:0;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0" target=3D"_blank"><img alt=3D"" width=
=3D"550" height=3D"381.14697802197804" src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image=
/fetch/$s_!jJ37!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/htt=
ps%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F745bda6=
f-6214-452e-a51a-31da7d0bb43c_5500x3810.jpeg" style=3D"border:none!importan=
t;vertical-align:middle;display:block;height:auto;margin-bottom:0;width:aut=
o!important;max-width:100%!important;margin:0 auto"></a></td><td style=3D"t=
ext-align:center"></td></tr></tbody></table><em>Vance speaks to reporters a=
fter the U.S. and Iran held talks at the Lake Lucerne Summit on June 22, 20=
26, Switzerland. Photo by Nathan Howard-Pool/Getty Images</em></div><p styl=
e=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-height:26px;font-size:16px"=
><span>Something=E2=80=99s got to be wrong when JD Vance starts making sens=
e. Last week, while defending his boss=E2=80=99s Iran dealmaking, the vice =
president</span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/ad259099-a5ed-47b7=
-9d91-76817293ba25?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFG=
DG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank">=
<span> cautioned</span></a><span> against conflating criticism of Israel wi=
th antisemitism, and delivered a</span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redi=
rect/67c0525c-b674-4421-afb2-333ce8658d62?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD5=
8YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:n=
one" target=3D"_blank"><span> sharper dressing-down</span></a><span> of the=
 Israeli government than I=E2=80=99ve heard from nearly any politician on e=
ither side of the aisle:</span></p><blockquote style=3D"border-left:4px sol=
id #ad0202;margin:20px 0;padding:0"><p style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb=
(54,55,55);margin-left:20px;line-height:26px;font-size:16px"><span>=E2=80=
=9COver the past three months, two-thirds of the defensive weapons that hav=
e protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by=
 American tax dollars =E2=80=A6 anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest =
problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell th=
e reality of the situation that country is in.=E2=80=9D<br></span></p></blo=
ckquote><div style=3D"margin:0 0 1em;direction:ltr;font-size:16px;line-heig=
ht:26px"></div><p style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-heigh=
t:26px;font-size:16px"><span>Refreshing, uncommon clarity for any politicia=
n =E2=80=93 that should not make you forget Vance=E2=80=99s servile cheerle=
ading for the war his boss just launched alongside Israel and his sympathy =
for neo-Nazis at</span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/ef686a27-86=
fc-42ee-bc0f-04525c975421?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_=
gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" target=3D"_=
blank"><span> home</span></a><span> and</span><a href=3D"https://substack.c=
om/redirect/a97d0442-c66e-4dd9-982f-0a909214db12?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjK=
TdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decor=
ation:none" target=3D"_blank"><span> abroad</span></a><span>.</span></p><p =
style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-height:26px;font-size:1=
6px"><span>Hearing tough talk on Israel from Vance, the presumptive 2028 Re=
publican nominee, I had a frightening premonition: Vance and other</span><a=
 href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/3051fc57-e4b4-4a3b-a755-4be8dccffe86=
?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=
=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank"><span> younger Re=
publicans</span></a><span> claiming the anti-war, tough-on-Israel lane and =
winning over voters frustrated with Democrats=E2=80=99 perceived incoherenc=
e on both issues.</span></p><p style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,5=
5);line-height:26px;font-size:16px"><span>Pro-Palestinian voters shouldn=E2=
=80=99t trust Vance=E2=80=99s new talking points, but Democrats </span><em>=
<span>should</span></em><span> be asking themselves why Vance can even pret=
end to be on the right side of U.S.-Israel policy, and what they can do abo=
ut it.</span></p><h4 style=3D"font-family:&#39;SF Pro Display&#39;,-apple-s=
ystem-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39=
;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe =
UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weight:bold;margin:1em 0 0.625=
em 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-height:1.16em;font-size:calc(1.125em*1)"><str=
ong><span>By any measure, Trump-Vance has been the most pro-Israel administ=
ration in decades</span></strong></h4><div style=3D"font-size:16px;line-hei=
ght:26px;display:none"></div><p style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,=
55);line-height:26px;font-size:16px"><span>Make no mistake: The Trump-Vance=
 administration has one of the worst records on Israel in U.S. history, wha=
tever they may say at the podium. The Biden administration=E2=80=99s uncond=
itional military support for Israel was criminal, exorbitant, and wasteful =
=E2=80=93 and still dwarfed by the blood and treasure Trump has spent launc=
hing not one but two wars against Iran, which, whatever Trump=E2=80=99s mot=
ivations, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu understood as personal =
gifts. Biden spent $20-$30 billion</span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/re=
direct/c7212323-d0a7-4fdc-b979-5a94d97161d6?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqz=
D58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration=
:none" target=3D"_blank"><span> arming</span></a><span> the Israeli militar=
y and launching associated U.S.</span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redir=
ect/e2eb7d7e-46d3-4f15-9baf-11d783b661d8?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58=
YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:no=
ne" target=3D"_blank"><span> military operations</span></a><span>, while Tr=
ump=E2=80=99s second Iran war alone cost </span><em><span>at least</span><a=
 href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/d9c42ef6-ee4c-4169-80ca-3f841023270f=
?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=
=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank"><span> </span></a=
></em><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/d9c42ef6-ee4c-4169-80ca-3f84=
1023270f?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q=
" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank"><span>$70 =
billion</span></a><span>. Biden sacrificed half a dozen U.S. troops for his=
 post-October 7 operations, while Trump=E2=80=99s war cost at least 13 serv=
icemembers their lives. Trump even surpassed Biden=E2=80=99s extensive dipl=
omatic cover for Israel, establishing the faux-UN Board of Peace in an atte=
mpt to add a patina of international legitimacy to the Israeli government=
=E2=80=99s ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Rhetoric aside, the Trump administrati=
on has backed Netanyahu beyond his wildest dreams. And JD Vance was along f=
or the ride to sell Trump=E2=80=99s blunders, insulting Americans=E2=80=99 =
intelligence with the </span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/0ea89=
fd1-853e-4e1e-a892-97803ba28b22?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvm=
JEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" targe=
t=3D"_blank"><span>argument</span></a><span> that the Iran war wouldn=E2=80=
=99t be like the Middle East interventions he=E2=80=99d previously opposed,=
 because =E2=80=9Cwe have a smart president whereas in the past, we=E2=80=
=99ve had dumb presidents.=E2=80=9D For those wondering whether they can tr=
ust Vance=E2=80=99s anti-war bona fides, they=E2=80=99ve proven about as du=
rable as his</span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/f719f2a3-db26-4=
93a-bb21-7f99e9bde0c4?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwi=
pFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" target=3D"_blan=
k"><span> never-Trump credentials</span></a><span>.<br></span></p><h4 style=
=3D"font-family:&#39;SF Pro Display&#39;,-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-=
apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,s=
ans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe U=
I Symbol&#39;;font-weight:bold;margin:1em 0 0.625em 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);l=
ine-height:1.16em;font-size:calc(1.125em*1)"><strong><span>Don=E2=80=99t mi=
stake unprecedented tough talk for unprecedented pressure</span></strong></=
h4><p style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-height:26px;font-=
size:16px"><span>Vance=E2=80=99s tough talk on Israel comes as Trump is app=
arently trying to force Netanyahu to end his invasion of Lebanon, which thr=
eatens to upend U.S.-Iran peace talks. It would be an undeniable strategic,=
 economic, and moral victory for </span><em><span>any</span></em><span> U.S=
. administration to use its immense leverage to prevent the Israeli governm=
ent from attacking and oppressing its neighbors, but it=E2=80=99s too soon =
to say if Trump has actually done that. While there are promising signs, su=
ch as Netanyahu</span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/4ba8388f-3a7=
7-4576-a54b-afa1dfa59f89?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_g=
zwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" target=3D"_b=
lank"><span> largely</span></a><span> restraining the Israeli military in L=
ebanon, he still refuses to withdraw, as demanded by Tehran and the U.S.-Ir=
an memorandum of understanding. Until Trump actually uses the leverage he a=
nd Vance are bragging about, they=E2=80=99re still just the</span><a href=
=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/93b004dc-322e-4498-ae5f-7b25b666df25?j=3D=
eyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"co=
lor:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank"><span> new cast</span><=
/a><span> of the Biden administration=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9Cmad at Netanyahu=
=E2=80=9D act.</span></p><h4 style=3D"font-family:&#39;SF Pro Display&#39;,=
-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Sego=
e UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#3=
9;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weight:bold;margin:1em=
 0 0.625em 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-height:1.16em;font-size:calc(1.125em*=
1)"><strong><span>Of course, Vance can=E2=80=99t be trusted =E2=80=93 so wh=
y does it matter what he says about Israel?</span></strong></h4><p style=3D=
"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-height:26px;font-size:16px"><sp=
an>Almost every Republican and the vast majority of Democrats are still una=
ble to discuss Gaza or Israel policy without gaslighting, lying, or saying =
something reprehensible, which is why these issues have become an easy way =
for candidates who </span><em><span>can </span></em><span>address them</spa=
n><em><span> </span></em><span>to establish credibility. The </span><a href=
=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/c3645813-f5bf-4bf0-bf1f-bcc9826679c9?j=3D=
eyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"co=
lor:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank"><span>66% of Democrats,=
 55% of independents, and 20% of Republicans</span></a><span> =E2=80=93 inc=
luding a whopping </span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/1f259ba6-=
35da-4dd4-a27d-fb965d0cfcd0?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0=
j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" target=3D=
"_blank"><span>63% of Republicans under 45</span></a><span> =E2=80=93 who w=
ant to reduce U.S. support for Israel rarely see their convictions reflecte=
d by their elected leadership. Unfortunately, with so few politicians speak=
ing honestly about Israel and so many voters understandably desperate for a=
uthenticity, criticizing Israel is also a shortcut for right-wing opportuni=
sts to establish </span><em><span>their</span></em><span> credibility. Anec=
dotally, I know pro-Palestine advocates and activists who are committed to =
human rights and would never endorse the conspiracy theories and racism of =
Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene but are nonetheless grateful for =
their positions on Gaza.<br></span></p><p style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:=
rgb(54,55,55);line-height:26px;font-size:16px"><span>Enter JD Vance, who, <=
/span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/6fa69ca4-6959-4949-baa0-96d3=
43e08c3a?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q=
" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank"><span>like=
 Trump in 2024</span></a><span>, is trying to craft his own =E2=80=9Cpeacem=
aker=E2=80=9D </span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/74b764ce-b2f3=
-4548-8f64-e33c80d1e8b5?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gz=
wipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" target=3D"_bl=
ank"><span>reputation</span></a><span> despite all evidence to the contrary=
. And if Vance calculates he can deflect attacks from pro-Israel donors and=
 commentators =E2=80=93 and with Trump=E2=80=99s blessing, he might =E2=80=
=93 he could keep up his anti-Israel schtick through 2028. If that happens,=
 =E2=80=9Cthen you kind of have a runaway train here because Democrats are =
going to have a long debate on [Israel] in their primary,=E2=80=9D compared=
 to Republicans already unified under Trump=E2=80=99s anointed successor, s=
ays Hamid Bendaas, communications director at </span><a href=3D"https://sub=
stack.com/redirect/9ac218a8-0957-4a5e-a018-183e7f6dcbba?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDc=
ifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:#ad0202;tex=
t-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank"><span>IMEU Policy Project</span></a><s=
pan>, a pro-Palestine advocacy organization, who has extensively researched=
 voter attitudes about U.S. Israel policy. In other words, when you look at=
 Democrats=E2=80=99 moderate-heavy 2028 roster, there=E2=80=99s a chance Va=
nce goes to the debate stage with a Democrat who sounds less convincing on =
Israel than he does.</span></p><p style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,5=
5,55);line-height:26px;font-size:16px"><span>Democrats can=E2=80=99t afford=
 to be afraid when their euphemisms and ambiguity, however well-intentioned=
, cede credibility to self-styled truth-tellers like Tucker Carlson, or, it=
 seems, JD Vance.</span></p><p style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,5=
5);line-height:26px;font-size:16px"><span>If they can overcome their fears =
of blowback from donors or party leaders, Democrats still stand to win, as =
this week=E2=80=99s </span><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/8c92116=
0-e4aa-431b-9127-a569266a07fa?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJE=
y0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:#ad0202;text-decoration:none" target=
=3D"_blank"><span>sweep</span></a><span> of New York Democratic congression=
al primaries by outspoken critics of Israel showed.</span></p><p style=3D"m=
argin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-height:26px;font-size:16px"><span=
>=E2=80=9CYou can be as critical as you want about Israel without getting p=
ushback from voters,=E2=80=9D Bendaas tells me, =E2=80=9Ccertainly in the D=
emocratic party but with younger voters regardless of party at this point.=
=E2=80=9D</span></p><p style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-=
height:26px;font-size:16px"><span>If Democrats don=E2=80=99t want to get ou=
tflanked from the left by Republicans on foreign policy =E2=80=93 a risk I =
take seriously after watching some Democratic lawmakers criticize Trump=E2=
=80=99s Iran deal to the extent it seems like they </span><em><span>want</s=
pan></em><span> him to go back to war =E2=80=93 they need to articulate the=
ir own base=E2=80=99s beliefs at least as well as an opportunistic hack lik=
e JD Vance.<br></span></p><p style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,55)=
;line-height:26px;font-size:16px"><em><strong>Harrison Mann</strong><span> =
is a former US Army major and executive officer of the Defense Intelligence=
 Agency=E2=80=99s Middle East/Africa Regional Center who resigned in protes=
t of his office=E2=80=99s support for Israel=E2=80=99s war in Gaza under th=
e Biden administration. He is currently with the group Win Without War and =
recently became a </span><strong>Zeteo </strong><span>contributor.</span></=
em></p><h6 style=3D"font-family:&#39;SF Pro Display&#39;,-apple-system-head=
line,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,H=
elvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#=
39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weight:bold;margin:1em 0 0.625em 0;color=
:rgb(54,55,55);line-height:1.16em"><em><strong>The views expressed in this =
article are the author=E2=80=99s own and do not necessarily reflect those o=
f Zeteo.</strong></em></h6><div style=3D"font-size:16px;line-height:26px"><=
hr style=3D"margin:32px 0;padding:0;height:1px;background:rgb(0,0,0,.1);bor=
der:none"></div><p style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-heig=
ht:26px;font-size:16px"><em><strong>Check out more from Zeteo: </strong></e=
m></p><div style=3D"margin-bottom:20px;padding:0;font-size:16px;line-height=
:26px"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=
=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><di=
v style=3D"text-decoration:unset;list-style:none;font-size:16px;line-height=
:26px;width:70px"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/29ea67d4-e526-48=
85-9e49-43ce2149d18e?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwip=
FGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"text-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank"><u></u><u></=
u><img src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!whPq!,w_140,h_140,c_f=
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ost-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F046edc95-97f7-473c-a488-a10e=
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ed Plan to &#39;End&#39; U.S. Military Aid to Israel Is a Scam" width=3D"14=
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e!important;vertical-align:middle;display:block;max-width:100%;margin:0 aut=
o;height:70px!important;object-fit:cover;width:70px"><u></u></a></div></td>=
<td width=3D"16" style=3D"min-width:16px"></td><td style=3D"vertical-align:=
middle"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacin=
g=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td><h4 style=3D"list-style:none;font-=
family:&#39;SF Pro Display&#39;,-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-sys=
tem,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif=
,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&=
#39;;font-weight:700;margin:0;color:#363737;line-height:24px;font-size:20px=
;text-decoration:unset"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/29ea67d4-e=
526-4885-9e49-43ce2149d18e?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j=
_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration:none" targ=
et=3D"_blank">Don=E2=80=99t Be Fooled. The Netanyahu-Backed Plan to &#39;En=
d&#39; U.S. Military Aid to Israel Is a Scam</a></h4></td></tr><tr><td><tab=
le role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cell=
padding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><table role=3D=
"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D=
"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><div style=3D"list-style=
:none;font-size:11px;line-height:20px;text-decoration:unset;color:#777777;m=
argin:0;font-family:&#39;SF Compact&#39;,-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-sys=
tem,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif=
,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&=
#39;;font-weight:500;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.2px"><a href=
=3D"https://substack.com/profile/323844179-josh-paul-of-a-new-policy" style=
=3D"color:inherit;text-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank">Josh Paul of A Ne=
w Policy</a></div></td><td width=3D"4" style=3D"min-width:4px"></td><td sty=
le=3D"vertical-align:middle"><div style=3D"list-style:none;font-size:16px;l=
ine-height:26px;text-decoration:unset;color:#777777;margin:0">=C2=B7</div><=
/td></tr></tbody></table></td><td width=3D"4" style=3D"min-width:4px"></td>=
<td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><div style=3D"list-style:none;font-size=
:11px;line-height:20px;text-decoration:unset;color:#777777;margin:0;font-fa=
mily:&#39;SF Compact&#39;,-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSys=
temFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Col=
or Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weigh=
t:500;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.2px">Jun 25</div></td></tr><=
/tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto=
" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"padding-top:0px=
;padding-bottom:0px"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><a href=
=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/29ea67d4-e526-4885-9e49-43ce2149d18e?j=3D=
eyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"li=
st-style:none;color:unset;text-align:center;text-decoration:unset;margin:0;=
font-size:13px;line-height:20px;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMa=
cSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple=
 Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-w=
eight:500" target=3D"_blank"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" bo=
rder=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vert=
ical-align:middle"><span style=3D"list-style:none;text-decoration:unset;col=
or:rgb(255,103,25);margin:0;font-size:14px;line-height:20px;font-family:sys=
tem-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica=
,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39=
;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weight:400">Read full story</span></td></tr></tb=
ody></table></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></=
tr></tbody></table></div><div style=3D"margin-bottom:20px;padding:0;font-si=
ze:16px;line-height:26px"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" borde=
r=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertica=
l-align:middle"><div style=3D"text-decoration:unset;list-style:none;font-si=
ze:16px;line-height:26px;width:70px"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redire=
ct/442c59bf-3af4-41e3-af5a-f2c3851267d9?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58Y=
QkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"text-decoration:none" target=3D"_=
blank"><u></u><u></u><img src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!50=
M4!,w_140,h_140,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https=
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6253-4227-93f4-278c98b15a9f_2834x1476.png" alt=3D"Is Israel Dividing Fox wi=
th Trump?" width=3D"140" height=3D"140" style=3D"text-decoration:unset;list=
-style:none;border:none!important;vertical-align:middle;display:block;max-w=
idth:100%;margin:0 auto;height:70px!important;object-fit:cover;width:70px">=
<u></u></a></div></td><td width=3D"16" style=3D"min-width:16px"></td><td st=
yle=3D"vertical-align:middle"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" b=
order=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td><h4 style=3D=
"list-style:none;font-family:&#39;SF Pro Display&#39;,-apple-system-headlin=
e,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helv=
etica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;=
,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weight:700;margin:0;color:#363737;line-heig=
ht:24px;font-size:20px;text-decoration:unset"><a href=3D"https://substack.c=
om/redirect/442c59bf-3af4-41e3-af5a-f2c3851267d9?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjK=
TdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:rgb(54,55,55);text=
-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank">Is Israel Dividing Fox with Trump?</a><=
/h4></td></tr><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D=
"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-al=
ign:middle"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellsp=
acing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle=
"><div style=3D"list-style:none;font-size:11px;line-height:20px;text-decora=
tion:unset;color:#777777;margin:0;font-family:&#39;SF Compact&#39;,-apple-s=
ystem,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,=
Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&=
#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weight:500;text-transform:uppercase;let=
ter-spacing:.2px"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/profile/251377451-justin-=
baragona" style=3D"color:inherit;text-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank">Ju=
stin Baragona</a></div></td><td width=3D"4" style=3D"min-width:4px"></td><t=
d style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><div style=3D"list-style:none;font-size:1=
6px;line-height:26px;text-decoration:unset;color:#777777;margin:0">=C2=B7</=
div></td></tr></tbody></table></td><td width=3D"4" style=3D"min-width:4px">=
</td><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><div style=3D"list-style:none;font=
-size:11px;line-height:20px;text-decoration:unset;color:#777777;margin:0;fo=
nt-family:&#39;SF Compact&#39;,-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkM=
acSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Appl=
e Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-=
weight:500;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.2px">Jun 25</div></td><=
/tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D=
"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"padding-to=
p:0px;padding-bottom:0px"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><a=
 href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/442c59bf-3af4-41e3-af5a-f2c3851267d9=
?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=
=3D"list-style:none;color:unset;text-align:center;text-decoration:unset;mar=
gin:0;font-size:13px;line-height:20px;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,B=
linkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39=
;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;=
font-weight:500" target=3D"_blank"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"au=
to" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=
=3D"vertical-align:middle"><span style=3D"list-style:none;text-decoration:u=
nset;color:rgb(255,103,25);margin:0;font-size:14px;line-height:20px;font-fa=
mily:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,H=
elvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#=
39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weight:400">Read full story</span></td><=
/tr></tbody></table></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table=
></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div style=3D"padding:0;font-size:16px;lin=
e-height:26px;margin-bottom:0"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" =
border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"ve=
rtical-align:middle"><div style=3D"text-decoration:unset;list-style:none;fo=
nt-size:16px;line-height:26px;width:70px"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/r=
edirect/104d5a0e-9808-41f1-97d6-c8c6a5f51ec7?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvq=
zD58YQkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"text-decoration:none" target=
=3D"_blank"><u></u><u></u><img src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$=
s_!n9Mc!,w_140,h_140,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/=
https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F12a3=
9f58-7873-4e2a-92c5-741abe6ecb7e_5398x3599.jpeg" alt=3D"Trump Told Netanyah=
u Everybody, Including =E2=80=98All the Jews,=E2=80=99 Is Sick of Him" widt=
h=3D"140" height=3D"140" style=3D"text-decoration:unset;list-style:none;bor=
der:none!important;vertical-align:middle;display:block;max-width:100%;margi=
n:0 auto;height:70px!important;object-fit:cover;width:70px"><u></u></a></di=
v></td><td width=3D"16" style=3D"min-width:16px"></td><td style=3D"vertical=
-align:middle"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cel=
lspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td><h4 style=3D"list-style:non=
e;font-family:&#39;SF Pro Display&#39;,-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-ap=
ple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,san=
s-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI =
Symbol&#39;;font-weight:700;margin:0;color:#363737;line-height:24px;font-si=
ze:20px;text-decoration:unset"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/104=
d5a0e-9808-41f1-97d6-c8c6a5f51ec7?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58YQkUqGp=
vmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"color:rgb(54,55,55);text-decoration:non=
e" target=3D"_blank">Trump Told Netanyahu Everybody, Including =E2=80=98All=
 the Jews,=E2=80=99 Is Sick of Him</a></h4></td></tr><tr><td><table role=3D=
"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D=
"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><table role=3D"presentat=
ion" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody=
><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><div style=3D"list-style:none;font=
-size:11px;line-height:20px;text-decoration:unset;color:#777777;margin:0;fo=
nt-family:&#39;SF Compact&#39;,-apple-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkM=
acSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Appl=
e Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-=
weight:500;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.2px"><a href=3D"https:/=
/substack.com/profile/479704883-martin-pengelly" style=3D"color:inherit;tex=
t-decoration:none" target=3D"_blank">Martin Pengelly</a></div></td><td widt=
h=3D"4" style=3D"min-width:4px"></td><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><d=
iv style=3D"list-style:none;font-size:16px;line-height:26px;text-decoration=
:unset;color:#777777;margin:0">=C2=B7</div></td></tr></tbody></table></td><=
td width=3D"4" style=3D"min-width:4px"></td><td style=3D"vertical-align:mid=
dle"><div style=3D"list-style:none;font-size:11px;line-height:20px;text-dec=
oration:unset;color:#777777;margin:0;font-family:&#39;SF Compact&#39;,-appl=
e-system,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Robo=
to,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emo=
ji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weight:500;text-transform:uppercase;=
letter-spacing:.2px">Jun 24</div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><t=
d><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0=
" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"padding-top:0px;padding-bottom:0px"><tbody><tr=
><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redire=
ct/104d5a0e-9808-41f1-97d6-c8c6a5f51ec7?j=3DeyJ1IjoiN3gwcDcifQ.VjKTdvqzD58Y=
QkUqGpvmJEy0j_gzwipFGDG2mKoLY-Q" style=3D"list-style:none;color:unset;text-=
align:center;text-decoration:unset;margin:0;font-size:13px;line-height:20px=
;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,=
Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI=
 Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weight:500" target=3D"_blank"><t=
able role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" ce=
llpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><span style=
=3D"list-style:none;text-decoration:unset;color:rgb(255,103,25);margin:0;fo=
nt-size:14px;line-height:20px;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacS=
ystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple C=
olor Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-wei=
ght:400">Read full story</span></td></tr></tbody></table></a></td></tr></tb=
ody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div=
></div><div style=3D"margin:32px 0 0;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;borde=
r-top:1px solid #e6e6e6;font-size:16px;line-height:26px"></div><div style=
=3D"font-family:&#39;SF Pro Display&#39;,-apple-system,system-ui,BlinkMacSy=
stemFont,&#39;Inter&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-ser=
if,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbo=
l&#39;;font-weight:400;text-align:initial;word-break:break-word;margin-bott=
om:32px;margin:32px 0;font-size:16px;line-height:26px"><p style=3D"color:rg=
b(54,55,55);text-align:center;width:90%;line-height:26px;font-size:16px;mar=
gin-top:0;max-width:384px;margin:auto"></p><h4 style=3D"font-family:&#39;SF=
 Pro Display&#39;,-apple-system-headline,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSy=
stemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Co=
lor Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;font-weig=
ht:bold;margin:1em 0 0.625em 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-height:1.16em;font-=
size:calc(1.125em*1);text-align:center">Invite your friends and earn reward=
s</h4><div style=3D"line-height:26px;text-align:center;font-size:14px">If y=
ou enjoy Zeteo, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subsc=
ribe.</div><p style=3D"color:rgb(54,55,55);margin:0 auto 20px;text-align:ce=
nter;width:90%;line-height:26px;font-size:16px"></p><p style=3D"color:rgb(5=
4,55,55);margin:0 auto 20px;width:90%;line-height:26px;font-size:16px;margi=
n-bottom:0;text-align:center;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto"><a role=3D=
"button" href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly96ZXRlby=
5jb20vbGVhZGVyYm9hcmQ_cmVmZXJyZXJfdG9rZW49N3gwcDcmcj03eDBwNyZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ=
249ZW1haWwtbGVhZGVyYm9hcmQiLCJwIjoyMDM3NDczMTksInMiOjIzMjU1MTEsImYiOmZhbHNl=
LCJ1IjoxMzI5Nzg2NywiaWF0IjoxNzgyNjU1ODkzLCJleHAiOjIwOTgyMzE4OTMsImlzcyI6InB=
1Yi0wIiwic3ViIjoibGluay1yZWRpcmVjdCJ9._SNUegljRTLMpZ9Bf240EszjMZq58s9cL8SIN=
Ul18Yo?&amp;utm_source=3Dsubstack&amp;utm_medium=3Demail&amp;utm_content=3D=
postcta" style=3D"font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#=
39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#=
39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;display:inline-block=
;box-sizing:border-box;border:none;height:40px;border-radius:8px;font-size:=
14px;line-height:20px;font-weight:600;text-align:center;padding:10px 20px;m=
argin:0;opacity:1;outline:none;white-space:nowrap;color:#ffffff!important;t=
ext-decoration:none!important;background-color:#ad0202" target=3D"_blank">I=
nvite Friends</a></p></div><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" bord=
er=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" style=3D"border-top:1px solid =
rgb(0,0,0,.1);border-bottom:1px solid rgb(0,0,0,.1);min-width:100%"><tbody>=
<tr height=3D"16"><td height=3D"16" style=3D"font-size:0px;line-height:0">=
=C2=A0</td></tr><tr><td><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"100%" border=
=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td><table role=3D"pr=
esentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"=
 style=3D"margin:0 auto"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><ta=
ble role=3D"presentation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cel=
lpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td align=3D"center"><a href=3D"https://substack.=
com/app-link/post?publication_id=3D2325511&amp;post_id=3D203747319&amp;utm_=
source=3Dsubstack&amp;isFreemail=3Dfalse&amp;submitLike=3Dtrue&amp;token=3D=
eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzI5Nzg2NywicG9zdF9pZCI6MjAzNzQ3MzE5LCJyZWFjdGlvbiI6IuKdpCI=
sImlhdCI6MTc4MjY1NTg5MywiZXhwIjoxNzg1MjQ3ODkzLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMjMyNTUxMSIsIn=
N1YiI6InJlYWN0aW9uIn0.m_rJRZELzoshmANeBSXdu7gB2d0-Dm6Xmhvcku3VKo4&amp;utm_m=
edium=3Demail&amp;utm_campaign=3Demail-reaction&amp;r=3D7x0p7" style=3D"fon=
t-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Robo=
to,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emo=
ji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;display:inline-block;font-weight:500;bord=
er:1px solid rgb(0,0,0,.1);border-radius:9999px;text-transform:uppercase;fo=
nt-size:12px;line-height:12px;padding:9px 14px;text-decoration:none;color:r=
gb(119,119,119)" target=3D"_blank"><img src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/imag=
e/fetch/$s_!PeVs!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https=
%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Ficon%2FLucideHeart%3Fv%3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dn=
one%26stroke%3D%2523808080%26strokeWidth%3D2" width=3D"18" height=3D"18" st=
yle=3D"margin-right:8px;min-width:18px;min-height:18px;border:none;vertical=
-align:middle;max-width:18px" alt=3D""><span style=3D"vertical-align:middle=
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n-width:8px"></td><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><table role=3D"presen=
tation" width=3D"auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tb=
ody><tr><td align=3D"center"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/app-link/post?=
publication_id=3D2325511&amp;post_id=3D203747319&amp;utm_source=3Dsubstack&=
amp;utm_medium=3Demail&amp;isFreemail=3Dfalse&amp;comments=3Dtrue&amp;token=
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OTMsImV4cCI6MTc4NTI0Nzg5MywiaXNzIjoicHViLTIzMjU1MTEiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN=
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ce=3Dsubstack&amp;utm_medium=3Demail" style=3D"font-family:system-ui,-apple=
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erif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Sym=
bol&#39;;display:inline-block;font-weight:500;border:1px solid rgb(0,0,0,.1=
);border-radius:9999px;text-transform:uppercase;font-size:12px;line-height:=
12px;padding:9px 14px;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(119,119,119)" target=
=3D"_blank"><img src=3D"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!x1tS!,w_36,=
c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2=
Ficon%2FLucideComments%3Fv%3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dnone%26stroke%3D%2523=
808080%26strokeWidth%3D2" width=3D"18" height=3D"18" style=3D"margin-right:=
8px;min-width:18px;min-height:18px;border:none;vertical-align:middle;max-wi=
dth:18px" alt=3D""><span style=3D"vertical-align:middle">Comment</span></a>=
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td width=3D"8" style=3D"min-width:8px"></td=
><td style=3D"vertical-align:middle"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"=
auto" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td align=
=3D"center"><a href=3D"https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9v=
cGVuLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbS9wdWIvemV0ZW8vcC9qZC12YW5jZS1tYWdhLWlzcmFlbC1pcmFuLWR=
lbW9jcmF0cz91dG1fc291cmNlPXN1YnN0YWNrJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaW=
duPWVtYWlsLXJlc3RhY2stY29tbWVudCZhY3Rpb249cmVzdGFjay1jb21tZW50JnI9N3gwcDcmd=
G9rZW49ZXlKMWMyVnlYMmxrSWpveE16STVOemcyTnl3aWNHOXpkRjlwWkNJNk1qQXpOelEzTXpF=
NUxDSnBZWFFpT2pFM09ESTJOVFU0T1RNc0ltVjRjQ0k2TVRjNE5USTBOemc1TXl3aWFYTnpJam9=
pY0hWaUxUSXpNalUxTVRFaUxDSnpkV0lpT2lKd2IzTjBMWEpsWVdOMGFXOXVJbjAuczJ6Z3RKam=
95c0lyNjNkeWhuSEtHZXFmODV1Zm5RMEhsTG9YTTFfNl9kNCIsInAiOjIwMzc0NzMxOSwicyI6M=
jMyNTUxMSwiZiI6ZmFsc2UsInUiOjEzMjk3ODY3LCJpYXQiOjE3ODI2NTU4OTMsImV4cCI6MjA5=
ODIzMTg5MywiaXNzIjoicHViLTAiLCJzdWIiOiJsaW5rLXJlZGlyZWN0In0.YabQ_mU-5IP0LvN=
9S2v9HdlRvajUFCTIxWGMuOTNW5k?&amp;utm_source=3Dsubstack&amp;utm_medium=3Dem=
ail" style=3D"font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;S=
egoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,=
&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Symbol&#39;;display:inline-block;fon=
t-weight:500;border:1px solid rgb(0,0,0,.1);border-radius:9999px;text-trans=
form:uppercase;font-size:12px;line-height:12px;padding:9px 14px;text-decora=
tion:none;color:rgb(119,119,119)" target=3D"_blank"><img src=3D"https://sub=
stackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ubXF!,w_36,c_scale,f_png,q_auto:good,fl_progre=
ssive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Ficon%2Fnotes__NoteRestackIcon%3Fv%=
3D4%26height%3D36%26fill%3Dnone%26stroke%3D%2523808080%26strokeWidth%3D2%26=
strokeLinecap%3Dround%26strokeLinejoin%3Dround" width=3D"18" height=3D"18" =
alt=3D"" style=3D"margin-right:8px;min-width:18px;min-height:18px;max-width=
:550px;border:none!important;vertical-align:middle"><span style=3D"vertical=
-align:middle">Restack</span></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbod=
y></table></td><td align=3D"right"><table role=3D"presentation" width=3D"au=
to" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"><tbody><tr></tr></tbod=
y></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr height=3D"16"><td height=
=3D"16" style=3D"font-size:0px;line-height:0">=C2=A0</td></tr></tbody></tab=
le><div style=3D"color:rgb(119,119,119);text-align:center;font-size:16px;li=
ne-height:26px;padding:24px0"><div style=3D"font-size:16px;line-height:26px=
;padding-bottom:24px"><p style=3D"list-style:none;font-family:system-ui,-ap=
ple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&#39;Segoe UI&#39;,Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,san=
s-serif,&#39;Apple Color Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,&#39;Segoe UI =
Symbol&#39;;padding-bottom:0;font-size:12px;line-height:16px;margin:0;color=
:rgb(119,119,119);text-decoration:unset">=C2=A9 2026 <span>Zeteo</span><br>=
1640 Boro Place 4th floor, McLean, VA 22102 <br><a href=3D"https://substack=
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pFNUxDSnBZWFFpT2pFM09ESTJOVFU0T1RNc0ltVjRjQ0k2TVRneE5ERTVNVGc1TXl3aWFYTnpJa=
m9pY0hWaUxUSXpNalUxTVRFaUxDSnpkV0lpT2lKa2FYTmhZbXhsWDJWdFlXbHNJbjAucjZyRFZ0=
U0R6Sk10MVE1aWhkVXBjVjZmNldmcThKWUJIT25iOEpKc3U1cyIsInAiOjIwMzc0NzMxOSwicyI=
6MjMyNTUxMSwiZiI6ZmFsc2UsInUiOjEzMjk3ODY3LCJpYXQiOjE3ODI2NTU4OTMsImV4cCI6Mj=
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Subject: [Salon] Iran-Linked Outlet Says Nuclear Bomb Is The Only Answer
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https://americanliberty.news/defense-news/iran-linked-outlet-says-nuclear-b=
omb-is-the-only-answer/phouck/2026/06/
Iran-Linked Outlet Says Nuclear Bomb Is The Only Answer

   - [image: Picture of Patrick Houck]Patrick Houck
   <https://americanliberty.news/author/phouck/>
   - June 28, 2026 <https://americanliberty.news/2026/06/28/>

Julius71, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

TEHRAN =E2=80=94 An Iranian media
<https://americanliberty.news/glossary/cancel-culture/> outlet linked to
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Iran has =E2=80=9Cno choice=E2=
=80=9D but to
develop a nuclear bomb, escalating pressure on a fragile U.S.-Iran
ceasefire already strained by new missile and drone attacks across the Gulf=
.

The article, published Sunday by the state-linked Fars News Agency
<https://nypost.com/2026/06/28/world-news/iran-must-develop-nuclear-bomb-to=
-protect-peace-and-calm-irgc-media-says-despite-pledge-to-trump/>,
argued that Tehran must negotiate with the United States and Israel from a
position of nuclear strength.

The piece was titled =E2=80=9CNo choice but to build the atomic bomb
<https://farsnews.ir/user1709101231232001644/1782631218166590563/%DA%86%D8%=
A7%D8%B1%D9%87-%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AC%D8%B2-%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%AE%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9=
%85%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%85-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%AA%D=
9%87%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%85%D9=
%BE-%D8%AA%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%B0%D8%A7%DA%A9%D8%B1%D9%87-%D8%B5%D8%AD%DB%8C%D8=
%AD>
.=E2=80=9D
Nuclear pledge under pressure

The article directly undercuts Iran=E2=80=99s recent pledge under a memoran=
dum of
understanding with Washington not to pursue nuclear weapons.

Under that agreement, Iran also committed to allowing International Atomic
Energy Agency inspectors to regain access to its nuclear sites after
oversight was suspended last year.

But Iranian officials have not yet granted inspectors access to sites hit
by U.S. strikes in 2025, and Iran=E2=80=99s stockpiles of enriched uranium =
remain
unaccounted for.

IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said Friday that Iran=E2=80=99s stated
intentions are not enough.

=E2=80=9CIn order to have certainty, we need to have a very strong system o=
f
verification as soon as practicable,=E2=80=9D Grossi told reporters.
Fars argues for deterrence

The Fars article claimed Iran must achieve nuclear deterrence to secure
=E2=80=9Cpeace and calm=E2=80=9D and force negotiations on more favorable t=
erms.

It compared Iran=E2=80=99s standoff with Washington to China=E2=80=99s posi=
tion before it
developed nuclear weapons, arguing that U.S. diplomacy with Beijing became
serious only after China obtained an atomic bomb.

The article also framed nuclear weapons as a way to balance power against
the United States and Israel, both of which it said possess atomic weapons.

The argument marks a sharp shift in tone from Iran=E2=80=99s formal diploma=
tic
position and gives voice to hard-line factions skeptical of the ceasefire
process.
Gulf attacks raise stakes

The nuclear rhetoric comes as Iran and the United States trade new strikes
around the Strait of Hormuz, the world=E2=80=99s most important energy chok=
epoint.
(RELATED: Wounded Soldiers Say Pentagon Downplayed Severity Of Injuries
Sustained In Iran War
<https://americanliberty.news/defense-news/wounded-soldiers-say-pentagon-do=
wnplayed-severity-of-injuries-sustained-in-iran-war/sdrake/2026/06/>
)

Iran launched drone and missile attacks targeting Bahrain and Kuwait after
recent U.S. strikes on Iranian military sites, including surveillance,
communications, and drone facilities.

Bahrain hosts the U.S. Navy=E2=80=99s Fifth Fleet. Kuwait also hosts key U.=
S.
military assets.

Kuwaiti air defenses successfully intercepted incoming ballistic missiles
and drones with no reported casualties.

Bahraini authorities reported that Iranian strikes caused damage to a
residential building near the international airport in Muharraq, though no
casualties were recorded.

The latest exchanges follow Iranian attacks on commercial tankers in and
around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world=E2=80=99s most important ener=
gy
chokepoints. The waterway carries roughly 30% of global oil shipments and
about 20% of liquefied natural gas supplies.

An estimated $500 million in oil and gas trade passes through the strait
each day, with China, India and South Korea among the largest recipients of
those exports.
Hormuz dispute threatens talks

Tehran has linked the attacks to broader demands in ceasefire talks,
including its claim to administer the Strait of Hormuz and its insistence
on a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. (RELATED: Trump Rebukes
Netanyahu, Suggests Syria Should Take Lead Against Hezbollah
<https://americanliberty.news/defense-news/trump-rebukes-netanyahu-suggests=
-syria-should-take-lead-against-hezbollah/phouck/2026/06/>
)

Those demands have collided with U.S. efforts to keep the strait open to
international shipping and prevent Iran from using maritime traffic as
leverage.

Planned follow-up talks between U.S. and Iranian officials in Switzerland
were postponed indefinitely after the latest reciprocal strikes, according
to reports.

The delay is a major setback for the interim ceasefire agreement reached
earlier this month, which was intended to halt fighting and reopen the
Strait of Hormuz.
Iran defends military buildup

Iranian officials continue to defend the country=E2=80=99s military posture=
 as
necessary self-defense.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Friday that Iran=E2=80=
=99s
military capabilities protect the country=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9Cinherent right=
 to legitimate
self-defence=E2=80=9D while also supporting =E2=80=9Cpeace and stability in=
 the region.=E2=80=9D

Baghaei also criticized Gulf nations for what he described as aggression
against a Muslim neighbor and accused them of ignoring Israel=E2=80=99s nuc=
lear
arsenal.

The comments reflect Tehran=E2=80=99s effort to frame its military escalati=
on as
defensive, even as regional governments condemn Iranian strikes as
violations of sovereignty.
Ceasefire faces major test

The Fars article does not represent an official change in Iranian nuclear
policy. But its publication by an outlet tied to the IRGC signals growing
internal pressure on Tehran to harden its position.

For Washington, the timing is especially significant.

The Trump administration is trying to preserve a truce while demanding a
long-term pause on Iranian nuclear enrichment and renewed international
inspections.

Iran=E2=80=99s hard-liners appear to be moving in the opposite direction, a=
rguing
that only a nuclear deterrent can protect the regime and force its enemies
to negotiate.

That widening gap now threatens to turn a fragile ceasefire into another
round of open confrontation.uclear. Let him know if you support this
crucial effort.
<https://secure.winred.com/trump-national-committee-jfc/lp-prsp-email-iran-=
v5-db?utm_term=3D%5Btrackingcode%5D&source_code=3D%5Btrackingcode%5D>

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><a href=3D"https://americanliberty.news/defense-news/iran-=
linked-outlet-says-nuclear-bomb-is-the-only-answer/phouck/2026/06/">https:/=
/americanliberty.news/defense-news/iran-linked-outlet-says-nuclear-bomb-is-=
the-only-answer/phouck/2026/06/</a><div><div class=3D"elementor-element ele=
mentor-element-49c2c17 elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-title e=
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16px"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-container" style=3D"box-sizing:border-=
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dth:921.7px"><h1 class=3D"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default" s=
tyle=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;line-height:1;font-size:42px;paddi=
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ot;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,53,91);text-transform:capitalize=
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ize:inherit;word-break:break-word"><a href=3D"https://americanliberty.news/=
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n: middle;"></span><span class=3D"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-i=
nfo__item elementor-post-info__item--type-author" style=3D"box-sizing:borde=
r-box;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;display:inl=
ine-block;color:rgb(121,119,119)">Patrick Houck</span></a></li><li class=3D=
"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-3f4a653 elementor-inline-=
item" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px;paddi=
ng:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;display:flex;font-size:inherit;wo=
rd-break:break-word"><a href=3D"https://americanliberty.news/2026/06/28/" s=
tyle=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(17,17,17);text-decoration:none;marg=
in:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;outline:none;display:=
flex;font-size:inherit"><span class=3D"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-p=
ost-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-date" style=3D"box-sizing:bo=
rder-box;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;display:=
inline-block;color:rgb(121,119,119)">June 28, 2026</span></a></li></ul></di=
v></div><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-4fd0213 elementor=
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al,sans-serif;font-size:16px"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-container" sty=
le=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-alig=
n:baseline;float:left;width:921.7px"><div class=3D"elementor-divider" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:=
baseline;display:flex"><span class=3D"elementor-divider-separator" style=3D=
"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:bas=
eline;direction:ltr;display:flex;width:921.7px"></span></div></div></div><d=
iv class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-dbc6d53 elementor-widget el=
ementor-widget-theme-post-featured-image elementor-widget-image" style=3D"b=
ox-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:basel=
ine;text-align:center;width:921.7px;color:rgb(75,76,84);font-family:Roboto,=
Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-c=
ontainer" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;padding:0px 0px 30px;bo=
rder:0px;vertical-align:baseline;float:left;width:921.7px"><img width=3D"10=
24" height=3D"683" src=3D"https://americanliberty.news/wp-content/uploads/2=
026/06/Nuclear_explosion-1024x683.jpg" class=3D"gmail-attachment-large gmai=
l-size-large gmail-wp-image-179872" alt=3D"" style=3D"box-sizing: border-bo=
x; height: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px; padd=
ing: 0px; border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-color: currentco=
lor; border-image: initial; border-radius: 0px; box-shadow: none; display: =
inline-block;">Julius71, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons</div></div><d=
iv class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-c8cb88b elementor-widget el=
ementor-widget-theme-post-content" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0p=
x;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;width:921.7px;font-size:16=
px;line-height:26px;color:rgb(75,76,84);font-family:Roboto,Helvetica,Arial,=
sans-serif"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-container" style=3D"box-sizing:b=
order-box;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;float:l=
eft;width:921.7px"><div class=3D"gmail-code-block gmail-code-block-15" styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:8px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-a=
lign:baseline;clear:both"><div style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;pa=
dding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline"></div></div><p class=3D"gmail=
-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;pad=
ding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline"><span style=3D"box-sizing:bord=
er-box;font-weight:bolder;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:=
baseline">TEHRAN =E2=80=94</span>=C2=A0An Iranian=C2=A0<a class=3D"gmail-gl=
ossaryLink gmail-cmtt_Social gmail-Issues" aria-describedby=3D"tt" href=3D"=
https://americanliberty.news/glossary/cancel-culture/" tabindex=3D"0" role=
=3D"link" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;padding:0px;border-widt=
h:0px 0px 1px;border-style:none none dotted;border-color:currentcolor curre=
ntcolor rgb(0,0,0);vertical-align:baseline;outline:none;color:rgb(0,0,0);te=
xt-decoration:none">media</a>=C2=A0outlet linked to the Islamic Revolutiona=
ry Guard Corps said Iran has =E2=80=9Cno choice=E2=80=9D but to develop a n=
uclear bomb, escalating pressure on a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire already s=
trained by new missile and drone attacks across the Gulf.</p><p class=3D"gm=
ail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;=
padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">The article,=C2=A0<a href=
=3D"https://nypost.com/2026/06/28/world-news/iran-must-develop-nuclear-bomb=
-to-protect-peace-and-calm-irgc-media-says-despite-pledge-to-trump/" target=
=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noreferrer noopener" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;colo=
r:rgb(17,17,17);text-decoration:none;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vert=
ical-align:baseline;outline:none">published Sunday by the state-linked Fars=
 News Agency</a>, argued that Tehran must negotiate with the United States =
and Israel from a position of nuclear strength.</p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-blo=
ck-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0p=
x;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">The piece was titled =E2=80=9C<a href=
=3D"https://farsnews.ir/user1709101231232001644/1782631218166590563/%DA%86%=
D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87-%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AC%D8%B2-%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%AE%D8%AA-%D8%A8=
%D9%85%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%85-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%A=
A%D9%87%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%85=
%D9%BE-%D8%AA%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%B0%D8%A7%DA%A9%D8%B1%D9%87-%D8%B5%D8%AD%DB%8C=
%D8%AD" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noreferrer noopener" style=3D"box-sizing:b=
order-box;color:rgb(17,17,17);text-decoration:none;margin:0px;padding:0px;b=
order:0px;vertical-align:baseline;outline:none">No choice but to build the =
atomic bomb</a>.=E2=80=9D</p><h2 class=3D"gmail-wp-block-heading" style=3D"=
box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 6px;font-weight:400;line-height:30px;f=
ont-size:24px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-family:Os=
wald,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,53,91);text-transform:uppercase">Nuclear pledge=
 under pressure</h2><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizi=
ng:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:bas=
eline">The article directly undercuts Iran=E2=80=99s recent pledge under a =
memorandum of understanding with Washington not to pursue nuclear weapons.<=
/p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;mar=
gin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">Under that=
 agreement, Iran also committed to allowing International Atomic Energy Age=
ncy inspectors to regain access to its nuclear sites after oversight was su=
spended last year.</p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-si=
zing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:b=
aseline">But Iranian officials have not yet granted inspectors access to si=
tes hit by U.S. strikes in 2025, and Iran=E2=80=99s stockpiles of enriched =
uranium remain unaccounted for.</p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" st=
yle=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;ver=
tical-align:baseline">IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said Friday that =
Iran=E2=80=99s stated intentions are not enough.</p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-bl=
ock-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0=
px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">=E2=80=9CIn order to have certainty,=
 we need to have a very strong system of verification as soon as practicabl=
e,=E2=80=9D Grossi told reporters.</p><h2 class=3D"gmail-wp-block-heading" =
style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 6px;font-weight:400;line-heig=
ht:30px;font-size:24px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-=
family:Oswald,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,53,91);text-transform:uppercase">Fars =
argues for deterrence</h2><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"bo=
x-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-ali=
gn:baseline">The Fars article claimed Iran must achieve nuclear deterrence =
to secure =E2=80=9Cpeace and calm=E2=80=9D and force negotiations on more f=
avorable terms.</p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizin=
g:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:base=
line">It compared Iran=E2=80=99s standoff with Washington to China=E2=80=99=
s position before it developed nuclear weapons, arguing that U.S. diplomacy=
 with Beijing became serious only after China obtained an atomic bomb.</p><=
p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:=
0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">The article al=
so framed nuclear weapons as a way to balance power against the United Stat=
es and Israel, both of which it said possess atomic weapons.</p><p class=3D=
"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20=
px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">The argument marks a sha=
rp shift in tone from Iran=E2=80=99s formal diplomatic position and gives v=
oice to hard-line factions skeptical of the ceasefire process.</p><h2 class=
=3D"gmail-wp-block-heading" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 6=
px;font-weight:400;line-height:30px;font-size:24px;padding:0px;border:0px;v=
ertical-align:baseline;font-family:Oswald,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,53,91);tex=
t-transform:uppercase">Gulf attacks raise stakes</h2><p class=3D"gmail-wp-b=
lock-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:=
0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">The nuclear rhetoric comes as Iran =
and the United States trade new strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, the wo=
rld=E2=80=99s most important energy chokepoint.=C2=A0<span style=3D"box-siz=
ing:border-box;font-weight:bolder;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertica=
l-align:baseline">(RELATED:=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://americanliberty.news/de=
fense-news/wounded-soldiers-say-pentagon-downplayed-severity-of-injuries-su=
stained-in-iran-war/sdrake/2026/06/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noreferrer no=
opener" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(17,17,17);text-decoration:=
none;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;outline:none=
">Wounded Soldiers Say Pentagon Downplayed Severity Of Injuries Sustained I=
n Iran War</a>)</span></p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"bo=
x-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-ali=
gn:baseline"><span style=3D"background-color:transparent">Iran launched dro=
ne and missile attacks targeting Bahrain and Kuwait after recent U.S. strik=
es on Iranian military sites, including surveillance, communications, and d=
rone facilities.</span></p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"b=
ox-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-al=
ign:baseline">Bahrain hosts the U.S. Navy=E2=80=99s Fifth Fleet. Kuwait als=
o hosts key U.S. military assets.</p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" =
style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;v=
ertical-align:baseline">Kuwaiti air defenses successfully intercepted incom=
ing ballistic missiles and drones with no reported casualties.</p><p class=
=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px=
 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">Bahraini authorities =
reported that Iranian strikes caused damage to a residential building near =
the international airport in Muharraq, though no casualties were recorded.<=
/p><div class=3D"gmail-wp-block-embed__wrapper" style=3D"box-sizing:border-=
box;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline"><div class=
=3D"gmail-twitter-tweet gmail-twitter-tweet-rendered" style=3D"box-sizing:b=
order-box;margin:10px 0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;di=
splay:flex;max-width:550px;width:550px"></div></div><p class=3D"gmail-wp-bl=
ock-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0=
px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">The latest exchanges follow Iranian =
attacks on commercial tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz, one of th=
e world=E2=80=99s most important energy chokepoints. The waterway carries r=
oughly 30% of global oil shipments and about 20% of liquefied natural gas s=
upplies.</p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:borde=
r-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">A=
n estimated $500 million in oil and gas trade passes through the strait eac=
h day, with China, India and South Korea among the largest recipients of th=
ose exports.</p><h2 class=3D"gmail-wp-block-heading" style=3D"box-sizing:bo=
rder-box;margin:0px 0px 6px;font-weight:400;line-height:30px;font-size:24px=
;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-family:Oswald,sans-ser=
if;color:rgb(0,53,91);text-transform:uppercase">Hormuz dispute threatens ta=
lks</h2><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-bo=
x;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">Tehra=
n has linked the attacks to broader demands in ceasefire talks, including i=
ts claim to administer the Strait of Hormuz and its insistence on a full Is=
raeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon.=C2=A0<span style=3D"box-sizing:bord=
er-box;font-weight:bolder;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:=
baseline">(RELATED:=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://americanliberty.news/defense-ne=
ws/trump-rebukes-netanyahu-suggests-syria-should-take-lead-against-hezbolla=
h/phouck/2026/06/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noreferrer noopener" style=3D"b=
ox-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(17,17,17);text-decoration:none;margin:0px;pa=
dding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;outline:none">Trump Rebukes Ne=
tanyahu, Suggests Syria Should Take Lead Against Hezbollah</a>)</span></p><=
p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:=
0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">Those demands =
have collided with U.S. efforts to keep the strait open to international sh=
ipping and prevent Iran from using maritime traffic as leverage.</p><p clas=
s=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0p=
x 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">Planned follow-up ta=
lks between U.S. and Iranian officials in Switzerland were postponed indefi=
nitely after the latest reciprocal strikes, according to reports.</p><p cla=
ss=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0=
px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">The delay is a majo=
r setback for the interim ceasefire agreement reached earlier this month, w=
hich was intended to halt fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.</p><h2 =
class=3D"gmail-wp-block-heading" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px =
0px 6px;font-weight:400;line-height:30px;font-size:24px;padding:0px;border:=
0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-family:Oswald,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,53,91=
);text-transform:uppercase">Iran defends military buildup</h2><p class=3D"g=
mail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px=
;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">Iranian officials continue=
 to defend the country=E2=80=99s military posture as necessary self-defense=
.</p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;m=
argin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">Foreign =
Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Friday that Iran=E2=80=99s milit=
ary capabilities protect the country=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9Cinherent right to l=
egitimate self-defence=E2=80=9D while also supporting =E2=80=9Cpeace and st=
ability in the region.=E2=80=9D</p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" st=
yle=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;ver=
tical-align:baseline">Baghaei also criticized Gulf nations for what he desc=
ribed as aggression against a Muslim neighbor and accused them of ignoring =
Israel=E2=80=99s nuclear arsenal.</p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" =
style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;v=
ertical-align:baseline">The comments reflect Tehran=E2=80=99s effort to fra=
me its military escalation as defensive, even as regional governments conde=
mn Iranian strikes as violations of sovereignty.</p><h2 class=3D"gmail-wp-b=
lock-heading" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 6px;font-weight=
:400;line-height:30px;font-size:24px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:=
baseline;font-family:Oswald,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,53,91);text-transform:up=
percase">Ceasefire faces major test</h2><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragrap=
h" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0p=
x;vertical-align:baseline">The Fars article does not represent an official =
change in Iranian nuclear policy. But its publication by an outlet tied to =
the IRGC signals growing internal pressure on Tehran to harden its position=
.</p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;m=
argin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">For Wash=
ington, the timing is especially significant.</p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block=
-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;=
border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">The Trump administration is trying to p=
reserve a truce while demanding a long-term pause on Iranian nuclear enrich=
ment and renewed international inspections.</p><p class=3D"gmail-wp-block-p=
aragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;padding:0px;bo=
rder:0px;vertical-align:baseline">Iran=E2=80=99s hard-liners appear to be m=
oving in the opposite direction, arguing that only a nuclear deterrent can =
protect the regime and force its enemies to negotiate.</p><p class=3D"gmail=
-wp-block-paragraph" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 20px;pad=
ding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline">That widening gap now threaten=
s to turn a fragile ceasefire into another round of open confrontation.<a h=
ref=3D"https://secure.winred.com/trump-national-committee-jfc/lp-prsp-email=
-iran-v5-db?utm_term=3D%5Btrackingcode%5D&amp;source_code=3D%5Btrackingcode=
%5D" style=3D"font-weight:bolder;background-color:transparent;box-sizing:bo=
rder-box;color:rgb(17,17,17);text-decoration:none;margin:0px;padding:0px;bo=
rder:0px;vertical-align:baseline;outline:none">uclear. Let him know if you =
support this crucial effort.</a></p><div class=3D"gmail-code-block gmail-co=
de-block-17" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:8px 0px;padding:0px;bord=
er:0px;vertical-align:baseline;clear:both"><div style=3D"box-sizing:border-=
box;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline"></div></div>=
</div></div><div class=3D"elementor-element elementor-element-b6afdfe eleme=
ntor-author-box--layout-image-left elementor-author-box--image-valign-middl=
e elementor-widget elementor-widget-author-box" style=3D"box-sizing:border-=
box;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;width:921.7px=
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e:16px"><div class=3D"elementor-widget-container" style=3D"box-sizing:borde=
r-box;margin:10px 0px;padding:5px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline;float:=
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ay:flex"></div></div></div><br class=3D"gmail-Apple-interchange-newline"></=
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Subject: [Salon] Iran analyst claims Iranian strikes destroyed 8 US-linked
 targets in Bahrain, Kuwait. . .. attacks targeted Ali Al Salem base,
 US Fifth Fleet facilities
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*https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-analyst-claims-iranian-strikes-d=
estroyed-8-us-linked-targets-in-bahrain-kuwait/3980607
<https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-analyst-claims-iranian-strikes-d=
estroyed-8-us-linked-targets-in-bahrain-kuwait/3980607>*

6/28/26

*Iran analyst claims Iranian strikes destroyed 8 US-linked targets in
Bahrain, Kuwait**Military expert says attacks targeted Ali Al Salem base,
US Fifth Fleet facilities*
[image: Content media]

*An Iranian military analyst on Sunday claimed that the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) destroyed eight US-linked targets in
recent missile and drone strikes on American military positions in Bahrain
and Kuwait.*

*Speaking to Iran's Fars News Agency, security and military affairs analyst
Morteza Simiyari said the strikes targeted eight locations, including
strategic shelters, radar systems, communications systems and watchtowers
at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait.*

*He claimed the operation also targeted maritime control and naval
data-processing facilities linked to the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.*

*Simiyari said the facilities had been active in recent days and had been
restored after sustaining damage during previous confrontations, but were
=E2=80=9Ccompletely destroyed=E2=80=9D in the latest operation.*

*He claimed the strikes showed Iran had entered =E2=80=9Ca new posture in
asymmetric warfare,=E2=80=9D arguing that the IRGC had escalated what he de=
scribed
as the =E2=80=9Crules of managed war.=E2=80=9D*

*Simiyari also claimed US forces failed to locate Iran's missile storage
facilities and maritime command systems despite what he described as =E2=80=
=9Cblind
strikes=E2=80=9D on previously targeted positions.*

*The remarks came after the IRGC said it targeted US positions in the
region in response to US strikes on Iranian facilities.*

*Bahrain said it =E2=80=9Csuccessfully=E2=80=9D intercepted and destroyed =
=E2=80=9Ca number of=E2=80=9D
Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting its territory.*

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir=
=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><b style=3D"background-color:transparent"><fo=
nt face=3D"georgia, serif"><a href=3D"https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/=
iran-analyst-claims-iranian-strikes-destroyed-8-us-linked-targets-in-bahrai=
n-kuwait/3980607" target=3D"_blank">https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/ir=
an-analyst-claims-iranian-strikes-destroyed-8-us-linked-targets-in-bahrain-=
kuwait/3980607</a></font></b></div><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><b=
 style=3D"background-color:transparent"><br></b></div><div dir=3D"ltr" clas=
s=3D"gmail_attr"><span style=3D"background-color:transparent">6/28/26</span=
></div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div><b><font face=3D"georgia, ser=
if"><br></font></b></div><div><h1 style=3D"line-height:1.2141em;margin-top:=
0px;margin-bottom:0.5em;max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"g=
eorgia, serif" size=3D"4"><i>Iran analyst claims Iranian strikes destroyed =
8 US-linked targets in Bahrain, Kuwait</i></font></h1><h2 style=3D"line-hei=
ght:1.27275em;max-width:100%"><font face=3D"georgia, serif" size=3D"2" colo=
r=3D"#000000"><i>Military expert says attacks targeted Ali Al Salem base, U=
S Fifth Fleet facilities</i></font></h2><div style=3D"max-width:100%;margin=
-bottom:1.15em;line-height:1.5em;color:rgba(0,0,0,0.65)"><img alt=3D"Conten=
t media" src=3D"https://web-cdnprod.aa.com.tr/uploads/Contents/2026/06/28/t=
humbs_b_c_80b8c9626cac4a6168a9f2c72ec376b2.jpg" style=3D"margin:auto 0px au=
to auto;display:block;clear:both" width=3D"412" height=3D"232"></div><p sty=
le=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">=
An Iranian military analyst on Sunday claimed that the Islamic Revolutionar=
y Guard Corps (IRGC) destroyed eight US-linked targets in recent missile an=
d drone strikes on American military positions in Bahrain and Kuwait.</font=
></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"g=
eorgia, serif">Speaking to Iran&#39;s Fars News Agency, security and milita=
ry affairs analyst Morteza Simiyari said the strikes targeted eight locatio=
ns, including strategic shelters, radar systems, communications systems and=
 watchtowers at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait.</font></b></p><p style=3D"=
max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">He cla=
imed the operation also targeted maritime control and naval data-processing=
 facilities linked to the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.</font></b></p><p style=
=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">Si=
miyari said the facilities had been active in recent days and had been rest=
ored after sustaining damage during previous confrontations, but were =E2=
=80=9Ccompletely destroyed=E2=80=9D in the latest operation.</font></b></p>=
<p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, s=
erif">He claimed the strikes showed Iran had entered =E2=80=9Ca new posture=
 in asymmetric warfare,=E2=80=9D arguing that the IRGC had escalated what h=
e described as the =E2=80=9Crules of managed war.=E2=80=9D</font></b></p><p=
 style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, ser=
if">Simiyari also claimed US forces failed to locate Iran&#39;s missile sto=
rage facilities and maritime command systems despite what he described as =
=E2=80=9Cblind strikes=E2=80=9D on previously targeted positions.</font></b=
></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georg=
ia, serif">The remarks came after the IRGC said it targeted US positions in=
 the region in response to US strikes on Iranian facilities.</font></b></p>=
<p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, s=
erif">Bahrain said it =E2=80=9Csuccessfully=E2=80=9D intercepted and destro=
yed =E2=80=9Ca number of=E2=80=9D Iranian missile and drone attacks targeti=
ng its territory.</font></b></p></div></div>
</div>
</div></div>

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Subject: [Salon] The end of ambiguity: How the Washington framework broke
 the post-Taif order
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*https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260628-the-end-of-ambiguity-how-the-wa=
shington-framework-broke-the-post-taif-order/
<https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260628-the-end-of-ambiguity-how-the-wa=
shington-framework-broke-the-post-taif-order/>*

6/28/26

*The end of ambiguity: How the Washington framework broke the post-Taif
order*
[image: A view of destruction following Israeli air strikes in the town of
Mayfadoun, Nabatieh Governorate, southern Lebanon, on June 23, 2026.
[Houssam Shbaro - Anadolu Agency]]

*The framework agreement signed in Washington on June 26 between the United
States, Israel, and Lebanon is being analyzed in most capitals as a
diplomatic development. In Lebanon, it is being experienced as something
closer to a political earthquake. Within hours of the signing, Hezbollah=E2=
=80=99s
secretary-general called it =E2=80=9Cnull and void.=E2=80=9D Parliament Spe=
aker Nabih
Berri, the principal intermediary between Hezbollah and the state, called
it =E2=80=9Cincitement to civil war.=E2=80=9D Hezbollah supporters blocked =
roads in
Beirut=E2=80=99s southern suburbs with burning tires. And Kataeb leader Sam=
y
Gemayel congratulated the president and prime minister on =E2=80=9Can achie=
vement
accomplished by the Lebanese state.=E2=80=9D*

*The reactions do not describe a country debating the merits of an
agreement. They describe a country discovering that the arrangement it has
lived under since 1990 has been formally terminated.*

*The post-Taif order was built on ambiguity. The Taif Accord of 1989 ended
the civil war by distributing power across Lebanon=E2=80=99s confessional
communities through a set of formal and informal arrangements that left the
most dangerous questions deliberately unanswered. The most dangerous
question of all, whether the Lebanese state was sovereign over its own
territory or whether sovereignty was shared with Hezbollah, was resolved
not by answering it but by agreeing never to ask.*

*The state and the resistance coexisted through institutional opacity: each
operated within its own sphere, each maintained its own logic, and neither
was forced to confront the other=E2=80=99s claims. This was not a failure o=
f
governance. It was governance itself. The ambiguity was the architecture.*

*The framework agreement ends the ambiguity.*

*The text commits Lebanon to a =E2=80=9Csequenced process=E2=80=9D in which=
 the Lebanese
Armed Forces will restore =E2=80=9Ceffective sovereign authority over all L=
ebanese
territory, pending the verified disarmament of non-state armed groups.=E2=
=80=9D The
language is precise. =E2=80=9CEffective sovereign authority.=E2=80=9D =E2=
=80=9CAll Lebanese
territory.=E2=80=9D =E2=80=9CTo the exclusion of all non-state actors.=E2=
=80=9D =E2=80=9CVerified
disarmament.=E2=80=9D Each phrase answers the question that the post-Taif o=
rder was
designed to avoid. Is the state sovereign over the south? Yes, says the
document. Does sovereignty include Hezbollah=E2=80=99s territory? Yes. Does
sovereignty require Hezbollah=E2=80=99s disarmament? Yes. Is the disarmamen=
t
subject to external verification? Yes.*

*The Lebanese government signed this document at the State Department,
witnessed by the US Secretary of State, on the same day the Shia community
was marking Ashura in processions through the destroyed streets of
Nabatieh. The timing was not designed to provoke, but it did. Ashura
commemorates the refusal to submit to illegitimate authority.*

*The framework agreement commits the Lebanese state to dismantling the
institution that a significant portion of its population considers the only
legitimate guarantor of their security.*

*The community was commemorating resistance while the state was signing its
terms of resolution.*

*Netanyahu removed any ambiguity about what the agreement means for Israel:
=E2=80=9CWe will maintain the buffer zone until Hezbollah disarms and as lo=
ng as
there is a threat to the State of Israel.=E2=80=9D Since Israel defines the=
 threat
and controls the verification timeline, the agreement produces not a
process for ending the occupation but a legal framework for extending it
indefinitely, conditioned on a requirement, Hezbollah=E2=80=99s disarmament=
, that
every actor involved knows will not be met.*

*The Lebanese domestic response to the agreement did not follow the usual
pattern of managed disagreement within the confessional system. It followed
a pattern that Lebanon has not seen since the years preceding the civil
war: absolute rejection from one side, celebration from the other, and the
language of existential conflict entering the political discourse within
hours.*

*Berri=E2=80=99s statement is the most structurally significant. The Speake=
r of
Parliament is not a commentator. He is the chairman of the legislative body
of the state that signed the agreement. He is the leader of the Amal
Movement, the Shia community=E2=80=99s state-aligned political organization=
. He is
the intermediary who facilitated every round of the Washington talks.*

*For Berri to call the agreement =E2=80=9Cincitement to civil war=E2=80=9D =
is to say that
the state he sits atop has produced a document that threatens to unravel
the political order he has spent three decades managing.*

*Berri is not rejecting the agreement from outside the system. He is
warning, from inside the system, that the system cannot survive what it has
just signed.*

*His position reveals the impossible geometry of post-agreement Lebanese
politics. Berri cannot endorse the framework without endorsing Hezbollah=E2=
=80=99s
disarmament, which would destroy his communal base. He cannot reject it
without breaking with the government his parliamentary bloc supports, which
would destroy his institutional position. He cannot remain silent because
the agreement forces a response from every actor in the political system.
The result is the language of civil war, deployed not as a threat but as a
diagnosis: this is where the agreement leads if it is implemented.*

*Hezbollah=E2=80=99s rejection went further than opposition. Qassem=E2=80=
=99s declaration
that the agreement is =E2=80=9Cnull and void=E2=80=9D is not the language o=
f political
disagreement. It is the language of an organization that does not recognize
the authority of the entity that signed the document. Mohammad Raad, head
of Hezbollah=E2=80=99s parliamentary bloc, called the agreement =E2=80=9Cth=
e Lebanese
authority=E2=80=99s complete submission to America and the Zionist enemy.=
=E2=80=9D The
phrasing is deliberate: =E2=80=9Cthe Lebanese authority,=E2=80=9D not =E2=
=80=9Cthe Lebanese
government.=E2=80=9D The distinction delegitimizes the state itself, not me=
rely the
officials who happen to occupy it.*

*On the other side, Gemayel=E2=80=99s congratulations framed the agreement =
as a
national achievement, the state asserting its sovereignty over its own
territory for the first time since Taif. This reading is shared, with
varying degrees of enthusiasm, by the Lebanese Forces, segments of the
Sunni establishment, and the Druze leadership. For these communities, the
framework agreement is what they have demanded for three decades: the state
reclaiming its monopoly on force. Their celebration is genuine. It is also
premature. The agreement commits Lebanon to delivering an outcome,
Hezbollah=E2=80=99s disarmament, that the Lebanese state has never had the =
capacity
or the political consensus to deliver.*

*The fracture the agreement has produced runs along every fault line in
Lebanese society simultaneously. Shia politics is split between Berri=E2=80=
=99s
state track and Hezbollah=E2=80=99s rejection. The broader national divide =
between
communities that have long demanded disarmament and communities that have
long defended against the resistance has been formalized in an
international document. The coexistence that held the system together, the
deliberate ambiguity about sovereignty, about the resistance, about who
controls what and who can see what, has been replaced by a text that
answers every question the system was built to avoid.*

*This is not a ceasefire agreement. It is the death certificate of the
post-Taif order, issued from Washington and signed by one side of the
Lebanese political equation without the consent of the other.*

*Whether what follows is a new political settlement, a prolonged crisis, or
something worse depends on whether the political class can construct a new
form of coexistence to replace the one that just died. The history of
Lebanese politics suggests that such reconstructions are possible. It also
suggests that they are preceded by periods of intense instability, during
which the language of civil war stops being a warning and becomes a
description.*

*The agreement was signed on Ashura. The old order ended on the day the
Shia community commemorates the original refusal to accept an unjust
settlement. Whether the new order that emerges from this moment is more
just than what preceded it, or merely differently unjust, is a question
that no framework signed in Washington can answer. That answer will come
from the streets of Dahiyeh, the halls of parliament, and the villages of
the south, where the consequences of what was signed will be lived long
after the ceremony is forgotten.*

*The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not
necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.*

--000000000000dd300d065555e37f
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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir=
=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><b style=3D"background-color:transparent"><fo=
nt face=3D"georgia, serif"><a href=3D"https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/202=
60628-the-end-of-ambiguity-how-the-washington-framework-broke-the-post-taif=
-order/" target=3D"_blank">https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260628-the-e=
nd-of-ambiguity-how-the-washington-framework-broke-the-post-taif-order/</a>=
</font></b></div><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><b style=3D"backgrou=
nd-color:transparent"><br></b></div><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr"><=
span style=3D"background-color:transparent">6/28/26</span></div><div dir=3D=
"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><br></font></b=
></div><div><h1 style=3D"line-height:1.2141em;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:=
0.5em;max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><font face=3D"georgia, serif" siz=
e=3D"4"><i>The end of ambiguity: How the Washington framework broke the pos=
t-Taif order</i></font></h1><div style=3D"max-width:100%;margin-bottom:1.15=
em;line-height:1.5em;color:rgba(0,0,0,0.65)"><img src=3D"https://i0.wp.com/=
www.middleeastmonitor.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/AA-20260623-41763000-4=
1762983-DESTRUCTION_AFTER_ISRAELI_AIR_STRIKES_IN_SOUTHERN_LEBANON-1-scaled-=
e1782645436880.jpg?fit=3D920%2C613&amp;ssl=3D1" alt=3D"A view of destructio=
n following Israeli air strikes in the town of Mayfadoun, Nabatieh Governor=
ate, southern Lebanon, on June 23, 2026. [Houssam Shbaro - Anadolu Agency]"=
 style=3D"margin:auto 0px auto auto;display:block;clear:both" width=3D"412"=
 height=3D"275"></div><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><f=
ont face=3D"georgia, serif">The framework agreement signed in Washington on=
 June 26 between the United States, Israel, and Lebanon is being analyzed i=
n most capitals as a diplomatic development. In Lebanon, it is being experi=
enced as something closer to a political earthquake. Within hours of the si=
gning, Hezbollah=E2=80=99s secretary-general called it =E2=80=9Cnull and vo=
id.=E2=80=9D Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, the principal intermediary bet=
ween Hezbollah and the state, called it =E2=80=9Cincitement to civil war.=
=E2=80=9D Hezbollah supporters blocked roads in Beirut=E2=80=99s southern s=
uburbs with burning tires. And Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel congratulated the=
 president and prime minister on =E2=80=9Can achievement accomplished by th=
e Lebanese state.=E2=80=9D</font></b></p><blockquote style=3D"color:rgba(0,=
0,0,0.65);margin-left:2px;margin-right:6px;padding-left:16px;border-left-wi=
dth:3px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.1);max-width=
:100%;font-style:italic"><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georg=
ia, serif">The reactions do not describe a country debating the merits of a=
n agreement. They describe a country discovering that the arrangement it ha=
s lived under since 1990 has been formally terminated.</font></b></p></bloc=
kquote><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"geo=
rgia, serif">The post-Taif order was built on ambiguity. The Taif Accord of=
 1989 ended the civil war by distributing power across Lebanon=E2=80=99s co=
nfessional communities through a set of formal and informal arrangements th=
at left the most dangerous questions deliberately unanswered. The most dang=
erous question of all, whether the Lebanese state was sovereign over its ow=
n territory or whether sovereignty was shared with Hezbollah, was resolved =
not by answering it but by agreeing never to ask.</font></b></p><blockquote=
 style=3D"color:rgba(0,0,0,0.65);margin-left:2px;margin-right:6px;padding-l=
eft:16px;border-left-width:3px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rg=
ba(0,0,0,0.1);max-width:100%;font-style:italic"><p style=3D"max-width:100%"=
><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">The state and the resistance coexisted th=
rough institutional opacity: each operated within its own sphere, each main=
tained its own logic, and neither was forced to confront the other=E2=80=99=
s claims. This was not a failure of governance. It was governance itself. T=
he ambiguity was the architecture.</font></b></p></blockquote><p style=3D"m=
ax-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">The fra=
mework agreement ends the ambiguity.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:10=
0%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">The text commits L=
ebanon to a =E2=80=9Csequenced process=E2=80=9D in which the Lebanese Armed=
 Forces will restore =E2=80=9Ceffective sovereign authority over all Lebane=
se territory, pending the verified disarmament of non-state armed groups.=
=E2=80=9D The language is precise. =E2=80=9CEffective sovereign authority.=
=E2=80=9D =E2=80=9CAll Lebanese territory.=E2=80=9D =E2=80=9CTo the exclusi=
on of all non-state actors.=E2=80=9D =E2=80=9CVerified disarmament.=E2=80=
=9D Each phrase answers the question that the post-Taif order was designed =
to avoid. Is the state sovereign over the south? Yes, says the document. Do=
es sovereignty include Hezbollah=E2=80=99s territory? Yes. Does sovereignty=
 require Hezbollah=E2=80=99s disarmament? Yes. Is the disarmament subject t=
o external verification? Yes.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;colo=
r:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">The Lebanese government s=
igned this document at the State Department, witnessed by the US Secretary =
of State, on the same day the Shia community was marking Ashura in processi=
ons through the destroyed streets of Nabatieh. The timing was not designed =
to provoke, but it did. Ashura commemorates the refusal to submit to illegi=
timate authority.</font></b></p><blockquote style=3D"color:rgba(0,0,0,0.65)=
;margin-left:2px;margin-right:6px;padding-left:16px;border-left-width:3px;b=
order-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.1);max-width:100%;fon=
t-style:italic"><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif=
">The framework agreement commits the Lebanese state to dismantling the ins=
titution that a significant portion of its population considers the only le=
gitimate guarantor of their security.</font></b></p></blockquote><p style=
=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">Th=
e community was commemorating resistance while the state was signing its te=
rms of resolution.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27=
,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">Netanyahu removed any ambiguity abou=
t what the agreement means for Israel: =E2=80=9CWe will maintain the buffer=
 zone until Hezbollah disarms and as long as there is a threat to the State=
 of Israel.=E2=80=9D Since Israel defines the threat and controls the verif=
ication timeline, the agreement produces not a process for ending the occup=
ation but a legal framework for extending it indefinitely, conditioned on a=
 requirement, Hezbollah=E2=80=99s disarmament, that every actor involved kn=
ows will not be met.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,=
27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">The Lebanese domestic response to =
the agreement did not follow the usual pattern of managed disagreement with=
in the confessional system. It followed a pattern that Lebanon has not seen=
 since the years preceding the civil war: absolute rejection from one side,=
 celebration from the other, and the language of existential conflict enter=
ing the political discourse within hours.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-wid=
th:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">Berri=E2=80=
=99s statement is the most structurally significant. The Speaker of Parliam=
ent is not a commentator. He is the chairman of the legislative body of the=
 state that signed the agreement. He is the leader of the Amal Movement, th=
e Shia community=E2=80=99s state-aligned political organization. He is the =
intermediary who facilitated every round of the Washington talks.</font></b=
></p><blockquote style=3D"color:rgba(0,0,0,0.65);margin-left:2px;margin-rig=
ht:6px;padding-left:16px;border-left-width:3px;border-left-style:solid;bord=
er-left-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.1);max-width:100%;font-style:italic"><p style=3D=
"max-width:100%"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">For Berri to call the agr=
eement =E2=80=9Cincitement to civil war=E2=80=9D is to say that the state h=
e sits atop has produced a document that threatens to unravel the political=
 order he has spent three decades managing.</font></b></p></blockquote><p s=
tyle=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif=
">Berri is not rejecting the agreement from outside the system. He is warni=
ng, from inside the system, that the system cannot survive what it has just=
 signed.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><=
font face=3D"georgia, serif">His position reveals the impossible geometry o=
f post-agreement Lebanese politics. Berri cannot endorse the framework with=
out endorsing Hezbollah=E2=80=99s disarmament, which would destroy his comm=
unal base. He cannot reject it without breaking with the government his par=
liamentary bloc supports, which would destroy his institutional position. H=
e cannot remain silent because the agreement forces a response from every a=
ctor in the political system. The result is the language of civil war, depl=
oyed not as a threat but as a diagnosis: this is where the agreement leads =
if it is implemented.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27=
,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">Hezbollah=E2=80=99s rejection wen=
t further than opposition. Qassem=E2=80=99s declaration that the agreement =
is =E2=80=9Cnull and void=E2=80=9D is not the language of political disagre=
ement. It is the language of an organization that does not recognize the au=
thority of the entity that signed the document. Mohammad Raad, head of Hezb=
ollah=E2=80=99s parliamentary bloc, called the agreement =E2=80=9Cthe Leban=
ese authority=E2=80=99s complete submission to America and the Zionist enem=
y.=E2=80=9D The phrasing is deliberate: =E2=80=9Cthe Lebanese authority,=E2=
=80=9D not =E2=80=9Cthe Lebanese government.=E2=80=9D The distinction deleg=
itimizes the state itself, not merely the officials who happen to occupy it=
.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font fa=
ce=3D"georgia, serif">On the other side, Gemayel=E2=80=99s congratulations =
framed the agreement as a national achievement, the state asserting its sov=
ereignty over its own territory for the first time since Taif. This reading=
 is shared, with varying degrees of enthusiasm, by the Lebanese Forces, seg=
ments of the Sunni establishment, and the Druze leadership. For these commu=
nities, the framework agreement is what they have demanded for three decade=
s: the state reclaiming its monopoly on force. Their celebration is genuine=
. It is also premature. The agreement commits Lebanon to delivering an outc=
ome, Hezbollah=E2=80=99s disarmament, that the Lebanese state has never had=
 the capacity or the political consensus to deliver.</font></b></p><p style=
=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">Th=
e fracture the agreement has produced runs along every fault line in Lebane=
se society simultaneously. Shia politics is split between Berri=E2=80=99s s=
tate track and Hezbollah=E2=80=99s rejection. The broader national divide b=
etween communities that have long demanded disarmament and communities that=
 have long defended against the resistance has been formalized in an intern=
ational document. The coexistence that held the system together, the delibe=
rate ambiguity about sovereignty, about the resistance, about who controls =
what and who can see what, has been replaced by a text that answers every q=
uestion the system was built to avoid.</font></b></p><blockquote style=3D"c=
olor:rgba(0,0,0,0.65);margin-left:2px;margin-right:6px;padding-left:16px;bo=
rder-left-width:3px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.=
1);max-width:100%;font-style:italic"><p style=3D"max-width:100%"><b><font f=
ace=3D"georgia, serif">This is not a ceasefire agreement. It is the death c=
ertificate of the post-Taif order, issued from Washington and signed by one=
 side of the Lebanese political equation without the consent of the other.<=
/font></b></p></blockquote><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27)">=
<b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">Whether what follows is a new political se=
ttlement, a prolonged crisis, or something worse depends on whether the pol=
itical class can construct a new form of coexistence to replace the one tha=
t just died. The history of Lebanese politics suggests that such reconstruc=
tions are possible. It also suggests that they are preceded by periods of i=
ntense instability, during which the language of civil war stops being a wa=
rning and becomes a description.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;c=
olor:rgb(27,27,27)"><b><font face=3D"georgia, serif">The agreement was sign=
ed on Ashura. The old order ended on the day the Shia community commemorate=
s the original refusal to accept an unjust settlement. Whether the new orde=
r that emerges from this moment is more just than what preceded it, or mere=
ly differently unjust, is a question that no framework signed in Washington=
 can answer. That answer will come from the streets of Dahiyeh, the halls o=
f parliament, and the villages of the south, where the consequences of what=
 was signed will be lived long after the ceremony is forgotten.</font></b><=
/p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;color:rgb(27,27,27);font-style:italic"><b><fo=
nt face=3D"georgia, serif">The views expressed in this article belong to th=
e author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East=
 Monitor.</font></b></p></div></div>
</div>
</div></div>

--000000000000dd300d065555e37f--

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Subject: [Salon] The United States Is Now a Guarantor of Last Resort
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https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/26/united-states-middle-east-iran-gulf-ua=
e-saudi-last-resort/?ct=3Dt(EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_1_21_2025_13_26_COPY_01)
The United States Is Now a Guarantor of Last Resort
The Gulf region has shown it=E2=80=99s ready to carry the diplomatic burden=
 of
managing Iran.
By Amir Handjani <https://foreignpolicy.com/author/amir-handjani/>, a board
member at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
[image: Yousif al-Obaidli, the director-general of the Sheikh Zayed Grand
Mosque, accompanies U.S. President Donald Trump on a tour of the mosque in
Abu Dhabi on May 15, 2025.]Yousif al-Obaidli, the director-general of the
Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque, accompanies U.S. President Donald Trump on a
tour of the mosque in Abu Dhabi on May 15, 2025.Yousif al-Obaidli, the
director-general of the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque, accompanies U.S.
President Donald Trump on a tour of the mosque in Abu Dhabi on May 15,
2025. Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP

June 26, 2026

Every administration since President Barack Obama=E2=80=99s first term has =
promised
to look past the Middle East. Under Obama and later President Joe Biden,
that meant the Indo-Pacific; under President Donald Trump, it means
bringing the United States back home=E2=80=94the Western Hemisphere first a=
nd the
Indo-Pacific second. Each was pulled back in by a crisis it could not avoid=
.

The 2026 Iran war suggested a different outcome. The Gulf states, working
with Turkey and Pakistan, showed they could carry the diplomatic burden of
managing Iran themselves, and a share of the security burden, too, provided
Washington stayed guarantor of last resort, not manager of first resort.
That distinction is what would let Washington=E2=80=99s real priorities sur=
vive the
next crisis instead of being shelved by it.

The war produced a division of labor. Doha, Riyadh, and Islamabad handled
the diplomacy with Tehran that no U.S. administration can do credibly.
Pakistan, bound to Saudi Arabia by a defense pact signed five months
earlier, supplies a conventional backstop that lets Riyadh treat its
deterrence as a regional job. Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have floated
a consortium to manage Hormuz without U.S. ownership. What is left for
Washington is deterring an existential strike, keeping naval power within
reach, and selling the weapons that make everyone else=E2=80=99s deterrence
credible.

Look back to 2015 for the contrast. That May, as the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA) was being primed, many Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC) rulers skipped
<https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/obama-convenes-camp-david-summit-gul=
f-state-leaders>
Obama=E2=80=99s
Camp David summit and sent deputies instead, widely read as a snub over a
nuclear deal Washington handed them rather than shaped with them. In May
2026, Trump said he held off
<https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/18/politics/trump-iran-resumed-attack-plans> o=
n
fresh strikes because Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates
asked him to give negotiations more room. This marked the moment when the
Gulf arrived as an independent player. When the war threatened to spiral,
the Gulf, Turkey, and Pakistan built the off-ramps that helped Trump end it=
.

Gulf states no longer need Washington to mediate with Tehran. Saudi
Arabia opened
its own channel
<https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/10/iran-and-saudi-agree-to-restore-r=
elations>
in
2023, after a decade of U.S.-led diplomacy that shut it out. Riyadh and Abu
Dhabi were never much exercised over enrichment percentages. Their
complaint: The JCPOA solved the one problem Washington cared about, while
ignoring Iranian missiles, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps=E2=80=99 p=
roxies,
and a sanctions windfall headed for Hezbollah and the Houthis. When Biden
revived the same closed-door track in 2021, the Gulf was briefed rather
than consulted, tipping Riyadh toward Beijing to broker instead.

Chinese mediation didn=E2=80=99t stop Iran from targeting Saudi Arabia when=
 the war
started in February as Tehran=E2=80=99s missiles and drones hit Saudi pipel=
ines and
airbases. What it did buy was direct access to Tehran to begin the hard
work of de-escalation. Reports described Qatar offering to curb its own gas
output
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/06/12/qatar-pursued-secret-talks=
-with-iran-shield-gas-complex-strikes/>
if
Iran spared the Ras Laffan complex, as well as the UAE releasing billions
in frozen Iranian assets
<https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/13/uae-denies-false-reports-of-fund-transfer-=
to-iran.html>
in
exchange for being left alone. Both governments denied it, but the
plausibility of either suggests GCC capitals are cutting deals with Tehran.

Economic stakes add to the urgency. Saudi Arabia=E2=80=99s Vision 2030 and
comparable national strategies rely on a Gulf that can draw capital and
tourism as they try and diversify from oil revenues . That model needs
regional stability, the very thing Iran=E2=80=99s missiles and drones put a=
t risk,
which is why ending the war became a priority for Gulf governments. A Gulf
that can manage Iran on its own terms needs less of Washington=E2=80=99s at=
tention,
which is the precondition for any U.S. pivot elsewhere.

None of this adds up to a common Gulf position. The UAE wants reparations
from Iran for the damage it caused to its critical infrastructure, and its
dispute with Riyadh over oil policy grew sharp enough that Abu Dhabi walked
out of OPEC mid-crisis. Qatar and Oman argued for dialogue with Iran
throughout the fighting. Saudi Arabia expelled
<https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/saudi-arabia-expels-iran-military=
-attache-and-four-team-members>
Iranian
diplomats in March after repeated strikes, while keeping its 2023 channel
open and backing Pakistani mediation to end the war. The GCC has never had
 a unified Iran policy, yet together it produced something no single player
could have managed alone.

The one place Gulf states have held firm is against Trump=E2=80=99s attempt=
 to
extract a political trophy from the affair. He has pressed
<https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/26/trump-muslim-majority-nations-abr=
aham-accords-00936785>
Saudi
Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, and Turkey to join the Abraham Accords as the
price of winding down a war they did more than he did to end. Riyadh=E2=80=
=99s
answer has been unambiguous: no normalization with Israel without real
movement toward Palestinian statehood. Islamabad=E2=80=99s was blunter, cal=
ling the
idea incompatible with its own principles.

This same realignment could extend to Israel. A Washington genuinely freed
from Middle East crisis management would be less inclined to underwrite
open-ended military options on Israel=E2=80=99s behalf. Without that assump=
tion of
unconditional backing, Tel Aviv has more reason to treat a diplomatic
settlement with the Palestinians as a safer path to security than force
that has not solved the problem.

Iran=E2=80=99s integration into this order, a Tehran that trades and negoti=
ates
rather than threatens through proxies and missiles, is the outcome a
sustainable Gulf system needs over the long run. An Iran with a stake in
regional stability costs less to manage than one isolated and looking to
make that isolation costly. But the interests of Saudi Arabia, the UAE,
Turkey, and Pakistan diverge enough that integration will have a ceiling.

Riyadh can live with an Iran that talks directly with it rather than
through Washington, backed by plenty of U.S. hardware and a Pakistani
defense pact. The same logic applies to Abu Dhabi, with more force. The UAE
has two primary security partners, Washington and, since the Abraham
Accords, Israel, but neither could fully insulate it from a far larger
neighbor sitting across a narrow strait. The UAE absorbed more missiles and
drones during the war than any other country including Israel.. That
exposure, more than diplomacy, pushed Abu Dhabi toward accommodation rather
than further escalation by the war=E2=80=99s end. The UAE also has the most=
 to gain
economically from Iran=E2=80=99s integration, given its trade ties and Duba=
i=E2=80=99s
decades as a financial hub for Iran-linked businesses , so a real appetite
for economic engagement with Tehran sits alongside continued distrust of it
on security grounds.

Turkey cares less about Iran=E2=80=99s economic integration than about cont=
aining
Iranian influence in Syria and Iraq, where the two have long backed
opposing sides. Ankara=E2=80=99s enthusiasm is about being a co-architect o=
f the
new order, not about welcoming a Shiite rival into it. Pakistan=E2=80=99s l=
imits
are more structural. Islamabad shares a long and often violent border with
Iran through Balochistan on one side and archrival India on the other. It
is also bound to Saudi Arabia by a defense pact that functions partly as a
hedge against Iran, a commitment that leaves Pakistan unable to champion
Iran=E2=80=99s full integration without making itself less valuable to its
wealthier patrons across the Gulf.

Together these interests describe an order that absorbs Iran economically
while keeping it at arm=E2=80=99s length militarily. That ceiling is what m=
akes a
smaller U.S. role so attractive. Yet the militaries that are taking on this
burden still depend on American parts, munitions, and training to keep
functioning. Washington can shrink toward guarantor of last resort because
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and Pakistan are each independently and
collectively committed to keeping Iran=E2=80=99s reentry plausible without =
letting
it dominate the region. It only requires them to keep managing Iran
themselves, which the war showed they are willing to do.

A regional order that gives Tehran a seat at the table on terms its
neighbors control beats trusting a guarantor that started a war it could
not finish and stuck the Gulf with the bill. The enmity between Tehran and
Washington is 47 years old, and deterrence, sanctions, and back channels
have never dissolved it. The war may have forced the region to build
something else. Whether it can do so sustainably will decide if Washington
ever gets the homecoming it keeps promising itself.

Amir Handjani is a board member at the Quincy Institute for Responsible
Statecraft and a partner at KARV, a strategic advisory firm based in New
York. X: @ahandjani <http://www.twitter.com/ahandjani>

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><br><div><a href=3D"https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/26/u=
nited-states-middle-east-iran-gulf-uae-saudi-last-resort/?ct=3Dt(EMAIL_CAMP=
AIGN_1_21_2025_13_26_COPY_01)">https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/26/united-=
states-middle-east-iran-gulf-uae-saudi-last-resort/?ct=3Dt(EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_1=
_21_2025_13_26_COPY_01)</a></div><div><div class=3D"gmail-hed-heading" styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:inherit;color:rgb(17,17,17);font-family:tiempos,georgia,ser=
if;font-size:20px"><h1 class=3D"gmail-hed" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font=
-size:2.6em;margin:0.4em 0px 0px;line-height:1.15em;letter-spacing:-0.5px">=
The United States Is Now a Guarantor of Last Resort</h1></div><h2 class=3D"=
gmail-dek-heading" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:1.1em;font-weight:=
200;line-height:1.25em;color:rgb(17,17,17);margin:0.25em 0px 1em;font-famil=
y:&quot;Tiempos Headline&quot;,georgia,serif">The Gulf region has shown it=
=E2=80=99s ready to carry the diplomatic burden of managing Iran.</h2><div =
class=3D"gmail-author-bio" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;display:flex;font-fa=
mily:Solido,sans-serif;background-image:initial;background-position:initial=
;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initia=
l;background-clip:initial;font-size:0.7em;line-height:1.25em;color:rgb(0,0,=
0);padding:0.1em 0px;margin:0px 0px 1.75em"><div class=3D"gmail-author-bio-=
text" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit">By=C2=A0<a rel=3D"author" href=3D"https:=
//foreignpolicy.com/author/amir-handjani/" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;back=
ground-color:transparent;color:rgb(17,17,17)"><span style=3D"box-sizing:inh=
erit;font-weight:bolder">Amir Handjani</span></a>, a board member at the Qu=
incy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.</div></div><span class=3D"gmail-=
image-attachment gmail--ratioscale gmail-horizontal-orientation gmail-no-ba=
ckground-color" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;display:block;width:796.725px;b=
ackground:transparent;height:0px;overflow:hidden;padding-bottom:531.15px"><=
img width=3D"1024" height=3D"683" alt=3D"Yousif al-Obaidli, the director-ge=
neral of the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque, accompanies U.S. President Donald T=
rump on a tour of the mosque in Abu Dhabi on May 15, 2025." class=3D"gmail-=
image gmail--fit gmail-horizontal-orientation gmail-lazy-image-loaded" src=
=3D"https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/GettyImages-221457=
8262-1.jpg?quality=3D90" style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; border-style: none; =
contain-intrinsic-size: 3000px 1500px; block-size: auto; height: auto; opac=
ity: 1; left: 0px; top: 0px; width: 796.725px;"></span>Yousif al-Obaidli, t=
he director-general of the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque, accompanies U.S. Pres=
ident Donald Trump on a tour of the mosque in Abu Dhabi on May 15, 2025.<sp=
an class=3D"gmail-caption" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;border-bottom:1px so=
lid rgb(102,102,102);padding:1em 0px 0.5em;margin:1em 0px 0px;font-family:s=
olido,arial,sans-serif;line-height:1.25em;opacity:0.75;display:block;max-wi=
dth:none;font-size:0.7rem">Yousif al-Obaidli, the director-general of the S=
heikh Zayed Grand Mosque, accompanies U.S. President Donald Trump on a tour=
 of the mosque in Abu Dhabi on May 15, 2025.=C2=A0<span class=3D"gmail-attr=
ibution" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.75em;padding-left:0.25em;t=
ext-transform:uppercase">Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP</span></span><div class=
=3D"gmail-post-content-main" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;color:rgb(0,0,0);f=
ont-family:tiempos,georgia,serif;font-size:20px"><div class=3D"gmail-myfp-a=
rticle gmail-js-myfp-container gmail-myfp-article--center" style=3D"box-siz=
ing:inherit;font-family:Solido,Arial,sans-serif;margin-bottom:1em"><p class=
=3D"gmail-myfp-article__message gmail-js-myfp-message" style=3D"box-sizing:=
inherit;line-height:1rem;width:796.725px;text-align:center;font-size:0.7rem=
;margin:0px"><span style=3D"font-family:solido,arial,sans-serif;font-size:0=
.7em;text-transform:uppercase;background-color:transparent">June 26, 2026</=
span></p></div><p style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.9em">Every admini=
stration since President Barack Obama=E2=80=99s first term has promised to =
look past the Middle East. Under Obama and later President Joe Biden, that =
meant the Indo-Pacific; under President Donald Trump, it means bringing the=
 United States back home=E2=80=94the Western Hemisphere first and the Indo-=
Pacific second. Each was pulled back in by a crisis it could not avoid.</p>=
<p style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.9em">The 2026 Iran war suggested=
 a different outcome. The Gulf states, working with Turkey and Pakistan, sh=
owed they could carry the diplomatic burden of managing Iran themselves, an=
d a share of the security burden, too, provided Washington stayed guarantor=
 of last resort, not manager of first resort. That distinction is what woul=
d let Washington=E2=80=99s real priorities survive the next crisis instead =
of being shelved by it.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.9em">=
The war produced a division of labor. Doha, Riyadh, and Islamabad handled t=
he diplomacy with Tehran that no U.S. administration can do credibly. Pakis=
tan, bound to Saudi Arabia by a defense pact signed five months earlier, su=
pplies a conventional backstop that lets Riyadh treat its deterrence as a r=
egional job. Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have floated a consortium to m=
anage Hormuz without U.S. ownership. What is left for Washington is deterri=
ng an existential strike, keeping naval power within reach, and selling the=
 weapons that make everyone else=E2=80=99s deterrence credible.</p><p style=
=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.9em">Look back to 2015 for the contrast.=
 That May, as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was being prim=
ed, many Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) rulers=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.=
pbs.org/newshour/politics/obama-convenes-camp-david-summit-gulf-state-leade=
rs" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(17,1=
7,17)">skipped</a>=C2=A0Obama=E2=80=99s Camp David summit and sent deputies=
 instead, widely read as a snub over a nuclear deal Washington handed them =
rather than shaped with them. In May 2026, Trump said he=C2=A0<a href=3D"ht=
tps://www.cnn.com/2026/05/18/politics/trump-iran-resumed-attack-plans" styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(17,17,17)">h=
eld off</a>=C2=A0on fresh strikes because Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the Unit=
ed Arab Emirates asked him to give negotiations more room. This marked the =
moment when the Gulf arrived as an independent player. When the war threate=
ned to spiral, the Gulf, Turkey, and Pakistan built the off-ramps that help=
ed Trump end it.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.9em">Gulf st=
ates no longer need Washington to mediate with Tehran. Saudi Arabia=C2=A0<a=
 href=3D"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/10/iran-and-saudi-agree-to-r=
estore-relations" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;=
color:rgb(17,17,17)">opened its own channel</a>=C2=A0in 2023, after a decad=
e of U.S.-led diplomacy that shut it out. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were never m=
uch exercised over enrichment percentages. Their complaint: The JCPOA solve=
d the one problem Washington cared about, while ignoring Iranian missiles, =
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps=E2=80=99 proxies, and a sanctions win=
dfall headed for Hezbollah and the Houthis. When Biden revived the same clo=
sed-door track in 2021, the Gulf was briefed rather than consulted, tipping=
 Riyadh toward Beijing to broker instead.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:inherit=
;font-size:0.9em">Chinese mediation didn=E2=80=99t stop Iran from targeting=
 Saudi Arabia when the war started in February as Tehran=E2=80=99s missiles=
 and drones hit Saudi pipelines and airbases. What it did buy was direct ac=
cess to Tehran to begin the hard work of de-escalation. Reports described Q=
atar offering to=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/=
06/12/qatar-pursued-secret-talks-with-iran-shield-gas-complex-strikes/" sty=
le=3D"box-sizing:inherit;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(17,17,17)">=
curb its own gas output</a>=C2=A0if Iran spared the Ras Laffan complex, as =
well as the UAE=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/13/uae-denies-=
false-reports-of-fund-transfer-to-iran.html" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;ba=
ckground-color:transparent;color:rgb(17,17,17)">releasing billions in froze=
n Iranian assets</a>=C2=A0in exchange for being left alone. Both government=
s denied it, but the plausibility of either suggests GCC capitals are cutti=
ng deals with Tehran.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.9em">Ec=
onomic stakes add to the urgency. Saudi Arabia=E2=80=99s Vision 2030 and co=
mparable national strategies rely on a Gulf that can draw capital and touri=
sm as they try and diversify from oil revenues . That model needs regional =
stability, the very thing Iran=E2=80=99s missiles and drones put at risk, w=
hich is why ending the war became a priority for Gulf governments. A Gulf t=
hat can manage Iran on its own terms needs less of Washington=E2=80=99s att=
ention, which is the precondition for any U.S. pivot elsewhere.</p><p style=
=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.9em">None of this adds up to a common Gu=
lf position. The UAE wants reparations from Iran for the damage it caused t=
o its critical infrastructure, and its dispute with Riyadh over oil policy =
grew sharp enough that Abu Dhabi walked out of OPEC mid-crisis. Qatar and O=
man argued for dialogue with Iran throughout the fighting. Saudi Arabia=C2=
=A0<a href=3D"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/saudi-arabia-expels-=
iran-military-attache-and-four-team-members" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;ba=
ckground-color:transparent;color:rgb(17,17,17)">expelled</a>=C2=A0Iranian d=
iplomats in March after repeated strikes, while keeping its 2023 channel op=
en and backing Pakistani mediation to end the war. The GCC has never had =
=C2=A0a unified Iran policy, yet together it produced something no single p=
layer could have managed alone.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size=
:0.9em">The one place Gulf states have held firm is against Trump=E2=80=99s=
 attempt to extract a political trophy from the affair. He has=C2=A0<a href=
=3D"https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/26/trump-muslim-majority-nations-=
abraham-accords-00936785" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;background-color:tran=
sparent;color:rgb(17,17,17)">pressed</a>=C2=A0Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan=
, and Turkey to join the Abraham Accords as the price of winding down a war=
 they did more than he did to end. Riyadh=E2=80=99s answer has been unambig=
uous: no normalization with Israel without real movement toward Palestinian=
 statehood. Islamabad=E2=80=99s was blunter, calling the idea incompatible =
with its own principles.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.9em"=
>This same realignment could extend to Israel. A Washington genuinely freed=
 from Middle East crisis management would be less inclined to underwrite op=
en-ended military options on Israel=E2=80=99s behalf. Without that assumpti=
on of unconditional backing, Tel Aviv has more reason to treat a diplomatic=
 settlement with the Palestinians as a safer path to security than force th=
at has not solved the problem.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:=
0.9em">Iran=E2=80=99s integration into this order, a Tehran that trades and=
 negotiates rather than threatens through proxies and missiles, is the outc=
ome a sustainable Gulf system needs over the long run. An Iran with a stake=
 in regional stability costs less to manage than one isolated and looking t=
o make that isolation costly. But the interests of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, T=
urkey, and Pakistan diverge enough that integration will have a ceiling.</p=
><p style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.9em">Riyadh can live with an Ir=
an that talks directly with it rather than through Washington, backed by pl=
enty of U.S. hardware and a Pakistani defense pact. The same logic applies =
to Abu Dhabi, with more force. The UAE has two primary security partners, W=
ashington and, since the Abraham Accords, Israel, but neither could fully i=
nsulate it from a far larger neighbor sitting across a narrow strait. The U=
AE absorbed more missiles and drones during the war than any other country =
including Israel.. That exposure, more than diplomacy, pushed Abu Dhabi tow=
ard accommodation rather than further escalation by the war=E2=80=99s end. =
The UAE also has the most to gain economically from Iran=E2=80=99s integrat=
ion, given its trade ties and Dubai=E2=80=99s decades as a financial hub fo=
r Iran-linked businesses , so a real appetite for economic engagement with =
Tehran sits alongside continued distrust of it on security grounds.</p><p s=
tyle=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.9em">Turkey cares less about Iran=E2=
=80=99s economic integration than about containing Iranian influence in Syr=
ia and Iraq, where the two have long backed opposing sides. Ankara=E2=80=99=
s enthusiasm is about being a co-architect of the new order, not about welc=
oming a Shiite rival into it. Pakistan=E2=80=99s limits are more structural=
. Islamabad shares a long and often violent border with Iran through Baloch=
istan on one side and archrival India on the other. It is also bound to Sau=
di Arabia by a defense pact that functions partly as a hedge against Iran, =
a commitment that leaves Pakistan unable to champion Iran=E2=80=99s full in=
tegration without making itself less valuable to its wealthier patrons acro=
ss the Gulf.</p><div id=3D"gmail-adPlaceholder-1" class=3D"gmail-in-article=
-dynamic-ad" aria-hidden=3D"true" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;text-align:ce=
nter"></div><p style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-size:0.9em">Together these =
interests describe an order that absorbs Iran economically while keeping it=
 at arm=E2=80=99s length militarily. That ceiling is what makes a smaller U=
.S. role so attractive. Yet the militaries that are taking on this burden s=
till depend on American parts, munitions, and training to keep functioning.=
 Washington can shrink toward guarantor of last resort because Saudi Arabia=
, the UAE, Turkey, and Pakistan are each independently and collectively com=
mitted to keeping Iran=E2=80=99s reentry plausible without letting it domin=
ate the region. It only requires them to keep managing Iran themselves, whi=
ch the war showed they are willing to do.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:inherit=
;font-size:0.9em">A regional order that gives Tehran a seat at the table on=
 terms its neighbors control beats trusting a guarantor that started a war =
it could not finish and stuck the Gulf with the bill. The enmity between Te=
hran and Washington is 47 years old, and deterrence, sanctions, and back ch=
annels have never dissolved it. The war may have forced the region to build=
 something else. Whether it can do so sustainably will decide if Washington=
 ever gets the homecoming it keeps promising itself.</p><div style=3D"box-s=
izing:inherit"></div><div class=3D"gmail-article-end gmail-content-gated" s=
tyle=3D"box-sizing:inherit;color:rgba(0,0,0,0.8);font-family:solido,arial,s=
ans-serif;line-height:1.65em;font-size:0.9em"></div></div><div style=3D"box=
-sizing:inherit"><p style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px 0px 0.5em"><span=
 style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;font-weight:bolder">Amir Handjani</span>=C2=A0=
is a board member at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and a =
partner at KARV, a strategic advisory firm based in New York. X:=C2=A0<a hr=
ef=3D"http://www.twitter.com/ahandjani" style=3D"box-sizing:inherit;backgro=
und-color:transparent;color:rgb(17,17,17)">@ahandjani</a></p></div></div></=
div>

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/26/who-has-profited-most-from-the-war=
-on-iran

EXPLAINER
Who has profited most from the war on Iran?

*Defence contractors, energy companies and investment banks saw profits
soar as war and uncertainty upended markets.*
Listen (12 mins)


[image: INTERACTIVE - WAR BENEFIT - COVER - JUNE 26, 2026-1782455901]
(Al Jazeera)
By Hanna Duggal <https://www.aljazeera.com/author/hanna-duggal>
Published On 26 Jun 202626 Jun 2026

Nearly four months since the United States and Israel first launched
strikes on Iran, sending energy prices soaring and disrupting global trade,
the two sides are holding talks in Switzerland with a memorandum of
understanding
<https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/what-the-trump-iran-14-point-plan=
-says-about-lebanon-hormuz-and-uranium>
in
place establishing a 60-day ceasefire and framework for negotiations on
Iran=E2=80=99s nuclear programme, sanctions relief and the future of the St=
rait of
Hormuz.

A lasting deal could ease the economic pain felt by businesses and
consumers worldwide. But, for some companies, the conflict has proven
immensely profitable.

Defence contractors, oil and gas producers and investment banks are among
the sectors that have seen profits soar as war and uncertainty have upended
global markets.

So, who exactly has profited the most?
Energy firms

In terms of hard, cold dollars, no one sector has benefitted more directly
from the war than energy. Before the war, about one-fifth of the world=E2=
=80=99s
oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Disruptions to shipping through the narrow waterway sent crude prices
soaring and triggered sharp swings in global energy markets.

At one point, Brent crude briefly touched $126 a barrel, its highest price
in four years. The price has since dropped
<https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/25/oil-prices-back-to-pre-war-levels=
-on-rising-middle-east-supply>
to
pre-war levels of about $72 per barrel.

Higher prices translated into a massive cash flow windfall for some oil
producers who were also able to benefit from larger price gaps between
regional energy markets.

Saudi Aramco=E2=80=99s first-quarter profits rose by 25 percent to $32.5bn =
compared
with the same period a year earlier. The firm leveraged its 1,200km
East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, to
maintain exports at a capacity of seven million barrels per day, while
selling oil at higher prices.

British Petroleum (BP) reported first-quarter profits of $3.2bn =E2=80=93 m=
ore than
double the previous year and roundly beating analyst expectations of
$2.67bn.

Following regional strikes on Qatar=E2=80=99s Ras Laffan facility, Shell=E2=
=80=99s co-owned
Pearl GTL =E2=80=93 a gas-to-liquids plant converting raw natural gas into =
liquid
fuels =E2=80=93 saw its Train 2 processing unit sustain severe damage. Shel=
l
estimated repairs will take a year to complete. Despite this, the group
maintained a strong balance sheet, reporting profits of $6.9bn compared
with about $5.6bn in the previous year=E2=80=99s first quarter.

Despite seeing 15 percent of its global production shut down across Qatar,
Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, TotalEnergies reported adjusted net
income of $5.4bn compared with $4.2bn in the same quarter a year prior. It
maintained 210,000 barrels per day of onshore UAE production by routing
exports through the Fujairah Terminal, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

Rystad Energy, an independent energy research firm, analysed the cash flow
of major oil companies in April, at the height of market volatility,
comparing returns at under $65 per barrel pre-war against $100 per barrel
during the war, and found that Saudi Aramco stood to gain the most from
higher prices.

Thomas Liles, senior vice president of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy,
told Al Jazeera: =E2=80=9CEach one of those players is going to end up in a=
 net
positive place if we see higher prices persist throughout the year. It=E2=
=80=99s
really just a question of how much of that cash flow they end up capturing.=
=E2=80=9D

The beneficiaries extend beyond oil majors. With about one-fifth of global
LNG supplies normally being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, US LNG
firms such as Venture Global and Cheniere Energy are well positioned to
gain as buyers seek more secure supplies.

=E2=80=9CI would say probably most companies without a very concentrated Mi=
ddle
East or, let=E2=80=99s say, west of Hormuz exposure stand to benefit. Some =
of that
is going to include US shale oil players, Canadian oil sands players, the
IOCs [International Oil Companies], producers in Latin America, LNG players
like Venture Global who sell more into the spot market, so there are a
number of winners here for different reasons,=E2=80=9D Liles told Al Jazeer=
a.

But analysts caution the windfall may be short-lived =E2=80=93 a tentative =
US-Iran
ceasefire has already pushed prices lower, and prolonged high energy costs
risk weakening demand and tipping economies towards recession.
Defence contractors

Within days of the first US-Israel strikes on Iran at the end of February,
the heads of the world=E2=80=99s largest arms manufacturers
<https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/9/which-us-and-israeli-military-comp=
anies-are-profiting-from-the-iran-war>
met
at the White House and agreed to ramp up weapons production as US munitions
stockpiles dwindled.

Executives from RTX, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, BAE
Systems, L3Harris and Honeywell attended the talks. All are sitting on
billions of dollars in orders, backlogs that are likely to grow as
governments rush to replenish their arsenals.

Only weeks before the conflict, US President Donald Trump approved a $500bn
increase in defence funding sought by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. On
March 19, Hegseth defended a further request of $200bn in additional
funding from Congress by telling reporters, =E2=80=9CIt takes money to kill=
 bad
guys.=E2=80=9D

Investors have already begun betting on a prolonged boom. The strongest
performances came from Boeing, RTX, L3Harris and Northrop Grumman, all of
which reported solid revenue growth and either raised or reaffirmed their
full-year guidance.

Boeing=E2=80=99s revenue climbed 14 percent to $22.2bn in the first three m=
onths of
the year from higher aircraft deliveries. Though the company remained
loss-making, it significantly narrowed its net loss to $7m from $31m in the
same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, Northrop Grumman=E2=80=99s orders ba=
cklog
hit a record $95.6bn, boosted by the addition of classified programmes and
F-35-related work.

The war is reinforcing an already lucrative model, experts say. US defence
contracts account for a substantial share of revenues for munitions
producers. Between 2020 and 2024, private firms received $2.4 trillion in
Pentagon contracts =E2=80=93 more than half of the department=E2=80=99s dis=
cretionary
spending, according to
<https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/sites/default/files/papers/Profits-of-=
War_Hartung-Semler_Costs-of-War_Quincy-FINAL.pdf>
the
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and the Costs of War project at
Brown University=E2=80=99s Watson School of International and Public Affair=
s,
published last year. One-third ($771bn) of those contracts went to just
five companies: Lockheed Martin, RTX, Boeing, General Dynamics and Northrop
Grumman.
Freight and insurance companies

The disruption has created longer voyages and shipping bottlenecks have in
effect removed almost 7 percent of the global tanker fleet from
circulation, according to European financial services firm Kepler
Cheuvreux, sending freight rates =E2=80=93 the cost of shipping cargo =E2=
=80=93 to historic
highs.

Rates on the benchmark Middle East Gulf to East Asia route, a direct
measure of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, jumped from about 100
Worldscale points before the conflict to more than 500. Worldscale is an
index used to price tanker freight rates, where 100 represents a standard
baseline rate for a given route. For a very large crude carrier (VLCC)
hauling 260,000 tonnes of oil, that translates into millions of dollars per
trip.

The main beneficiaries have been specialist tanker operators such as
Frontline and DHT Holdings, whose earnings rise directly with freight
rates. Frontline, the world=E2=80=99s fifth-largest oil tanker shipping com=
pany,
reported revenues of more than $536m in the first quarter, while DHT
secured charter rates of more than $100,000 a day for some of its vessels.

The conflict has also been profitable for marine insurers.

Within days of the outbreak of hostilities, war-risk premiums for vessels
transiting the Strait of Hormuz surged fivefold. Insurance costs that
previously stood at about 0.25 percent of a ship=E2=80=99s value climbed to=
 1.5
percent and, in some cases, as high as 10 percent. Leading insurers,
including Gard, Skuld and NorthStandard, have increased premiums for Gulf
transits from a baseline of 0.15-0.25 percent of vessel value to as high as
1.5 percent.

For a tanker worth $100m, a single voyage through the Gulf could cost in
the region of $1.5m to insure.

War-risk insurance is mandatory for vessels operating in conflict zones and
insurers have been able to rapidly reprice policies as the Gulf=E2=80=99s r=
isk
profile deteriorated. Analysts say demand for standalone war-risk cover is
likely to remain elevated long after the fighting ends as shipowners and
cargo operators reassess the risks of operating in the region.

Constantin Gurdgiev, professor of finance at Monfort College of Business,
University of Northern Colorado, says insurers face three competing forces:
the ability to rapidly reprice policies and pass on risks to customers,
growing exposure from vessels already insured and stranded in conflict
zones, and a lasting shift in the Gulf=E2=80=99s risk profile that is likel=
y to
keep demand for war-risk cover elevated long after the fighting ends.

=E2=80=9CAs long as we are not seeing a dramatic increase in losses sustain=
ed by
civilian vessels, the second effect will be dominated by the first and the
third effects, driving up short and medium-term profitability of the war
insurers.=E2=80=9D Gurdgiev told Al Jazeera: =E2=80=9CHowever, if ongoing h=
ostilities
accelerate and spread more to the civilian infrastructure, the second
effect can drive substantial losses to the insurance companies.=E2=80=9D
Wall Street banks

The war has also been good for Wall Street.

The conflict triggered sharp swings in oil, currencies and bond markets,
prompting investors to rapidly reposition their portfolios and driving a
surge in trading activity. For the biggest US banks, volatility translated
into higher fees and stronger trading revenues.

The six largest US investment banks =E2=80=93 JPMorgan Chase, Bank of Ameri=
ca,
Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo =E2=80=93 collecti=
vely
earned nearly $48bn in profits in the first three months of 2026.

JPMorgan, the largest US bank, reported a 13 percent increase in profits,
with a net income of $16.5bn, compared with $14.6bn in the same period a
year prior. Bank of America made $8.6bn compared with about $7.4bn, while
Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo each generated
more than $5bn in quarterly profits compared with profits between $4.1 to
$4.9bn in the same period a year earlier.

The biggest gains came from trading desks specialising in fixed income,
currencies and commodities (FICC).
Prediction market punters

The conflict has generated scrutiny over a pattern of suspiciously timed
trades on prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi =E2=80=93 onlin=
e
exchanges where speculators place wagers on the outcome of real-world
events.

On March 23, $580m in oil futures flooded the market, resulting in a sudden
spike in volume =E2=80=93 nine times the normal =E2=80=93 roughly 16 minute=
s before Trump
announced a pause in strikes on Iranian power plants.

In April, at least 50 newly created accounts collectively made hundreds of
thousands of dollars betting on a US-Iran ceasefire in the moments before
Trump announced it on social media.

A Yale University analysis
<https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2026/03/25/from-iran-to-taylor-swift-infor=
med-trading-in-prediction-markets/>
of
trading patterns found that suspicious accounts were winning nearly 70
percent of their bets across more than 200,000 flagged cases =E2=80=93 a hi=
t rate
so far above what random chance would predict that researchers say it is
statistically almost impossible to occur without some form of prior
knowledge. Estimated profits from these trades reached $143m.

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<div dir=3D"ltr"><a href=3D"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/26/who-ha=
s-profited-most-from-the-war-on-iran">https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6=
/26/who-has-profited-most-from-the-war-on-iran</a><div><br></div><div><div =
class=3D"gmail-post-label gmail-post-label--large" style=3D"box-sizing:bord=
er-box;font-size:1.4375rem;color:rgb(89,89,89);font-weight:700;line-height:=
1.3;margin-bottom:10px;margin-top:0px"><span class=3D"gmail-post-label__tex=
t" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">EXPLAINER</span></div><div class=3D"gmai=
l-breadcrumbs" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.1875rem;line-heig=
ht:1;color:rgb(89,89,89);margin-bottom:10px"><span style=3D"font-size:2.5re=
m;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent">Who has profited most from=
 the war on Iran?</span></div><p class=3D"gmail-article__subhead" style=3D"=
box-sizing:border-box;font-size:1.5rem;font-family:Georgia,Times,&quot;Time=
s New Roman&quot;,serif;line-height:1.5;color:rgb(89,89,89);margin:0px"><em=
 style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">Defence contractors, energy companies and =
investment banks saw profits soar as war and uncertainty upended markets.</=
em></p><div class=3D"gmail-rich-share" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;displ=
ay:flex;margin:24px 0px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Roboto,&quot;Helvetica=
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tial;font-style:inherit;font-variant:inherit;font-stretch:inherit;font-size=
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gn:inherit;height:24px;font-weight:400">Listen (12 mins)</button></div><div=
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"><div class=3D"gmail-responsive-image" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;back=
ground:rgb(224,224,224);border-radius:10px;overflow:hidden;margin:0px auto"=
><img src=3D"https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/INTERACTI=
VE-WAR-BENEFIT-COVER-JUNE-26-2026-1782455901.png?resize=3D770%2C513&amp;qua=
lity=3D80" alt=3D"INTERACTIVE - WAR BENEFIT - COVER - JUNE 26, 2026-1782455=
901" style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; display: block; m=
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ail-article-info gmail-m--t-20 gmail-m--desktop-b-30 gmail-m--b-mobile-20" =
style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:30px;display:f=
lex;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Roboto,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Helvetic=
a,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:medium"><div class=3D"gmail-byline gmail-bylin=
e--no-avatars" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><div class=3D"gmail-byline-c=
ontent" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;display:flex"><div class=3D"gmail-co=
ntributors-list gmail-contributors-list--byline" style=3D"box-sizing:border=
-box;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.5;margin:0px"><span class=3D"gmail-contri=
butors-list__by-prefix" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(89,89,89)"=
>By=C2=A0</span><a href=3D"https://www.aljazeera.com/author/hanna-duggal" s=
tyle=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:inherit;te=
xt-decoration:none">Hanna Duggal</a></div></div></div><div class=3D"gmail-a=
rticle-dates" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:0.875rem;line-height=
:1;color:rgb(89,89,89);display:flex"><div class=3D"gmail-date-simple" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:0.875rem;display:flex"><span class=3D"g=
mail-screen-reader-text" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;height:1=
px;width:1px;overflow:hidden;white-space:nowrap">Published On 26 Jun 2026</=
span><span aria-hidden=3D"true" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">26 Jun 2026=
</span></div></div></div><div class=3D"gmail-wysiwyg gmail-wysiwyg--all-con=
tent" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:7px 0px 30px;overflow:hidden;fo=
nt-size:20px;line-height:1.5;font-family:Georgia,Times,&quot;Times New Roma=
n&quot;,serif;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0p=
x 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">Nearly four months since the United States and =
Israel first launched strikes on Iran, sending energy prices soaring and di=
srupting global trade, the two sides are holding talks in Switzerland with =
a=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/what-the-trump-i=
ran-14-point-plan-says-about-lebanon-hormuz-and-uranium" target=3D"_blank" =
rel=3D"noopener" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparen=
t;color:rgb(0,89,165)">memorandum of understanding</a>=C2=A0in place establ=
ishing a 60-day ceasefire and framework for negotiations on Iran=E2=80=99s =
nuclear programme, sanctions relief and the future of the Strait of Hormuz.=
</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">=
A lasting deal could ease the economic pain felt by businesses and consumer=
s worldwide. But, for some companies, the conflict has proven immensely pro=
fitable.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-heig=
ht:1.5">Defence contractors, oil and gas producers and investment banks are=
 among the sectors that have seen profits soar as war and uncertainty have =
upended global markets.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px=
 30px;line-height:1.5">So, who exactly has profited the most?</p><h2 id=3D"=
energy-firms" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-height:1.3;font-family:Ro=
boto,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px 0px 1=
0px;font-size:2rem">Energy firms</h2><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;marg=
in:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">In terms of hard, cold dollars, no one sec=
tor has benefitted more directly from the war than energy. Before the war, =
about one-fifth of the world=E2=80=99s oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) =
passed through the Strait of Hormuz.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;m=
argin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">Disruptions to shipping through the nar=
row waterway sent crude prices soaring and triggered sharp swings in global=
 energy markets.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;l=
ine-height:1.5">At one point, Brent crude briefly touched $126 a barrel, it=
s highest price in four years. The price has since=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://=
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/25/oil-prices-back-to-pre-war-levels-on-risin=
g-middle-east-supply" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener" style=3D"box-sizin=
g:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(0,89,165)">dropped</a>=
=C2=A0to pre-war levels of about $72 per barrel.</p><div class=3D"embed-par=
agraph-wrapper" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px"></div><=
p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">Highe=
r prices translated into a massive cash flow windfall for some oil producer=
s who were also able to benefit from larger price gaps between regional ene=
rgy markets.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-=
height:1.5">Saudi Aramco=E2=80=99s first-quarter profits rose by 25 percent=
 to $32.5bn compared with the same period a year earlier. The firm leverage=
d its 1,200km East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Ho=
rmuz, to maintain exports at a capacity of seven million barrels per day, w=
hile selling oil at higher prices.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;mar=
gin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">British Petroleum (BP) reported first-qua=
rter profits of $3.2bn =E2=80=93 more than double the previous year and rou=
ndly beating analyst expectations of $2.67bn.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:bor=
der-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">Following regional strikes on =
Qatar=E2=80=99s Ras Laffan facility, Shell=E2=80=99s co-owned Pearl GTL =E2=
=80=93 a gas-to-liquids plant converting raw natural gas into liquid fuels =
=E2=80=93 saw its Train 2 processing unit sustain severe damage. Shell esti=
mated repairs will take a year to complete. Despite this, the group maintai=
ned a strong balance sheet, reporting profits of $6.9bn compared with about=
 $5.6bn in the previous year=E2=80=99s first quarter.</p><p style=3D"box-si=
zing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">Despite seeing 15 perc=
ent of its global production shut down across Qatar, Iraq and the United Ar=
ab Emirates, TotalEnergies reported adjusted net income of $5.4bn compared =
with $4.2bn in the same quarter a year prior. It maintained 210,000 barrels=
 per day of onshore UAE production by routing exports through the Fujairah =
Terminal, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-=
box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">Rystad Energy, an independent ener=
gy research firm, analysed the cash flow of major oil companies in April, a=
t the height of market volatility, comparing returns at under $65 per barre=
l pre-war against $100 per barrel during the war, and found that Saudi Aram=
co stood to gain the most from higher prices.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:bor=
der-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">Thomas Liles, senior vice pres=
ident of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, told Al Jazeera: =E2=80=9CEach=
 one of those players is going to end up in a net positive place if we see =
higher prices persist throughout the year. It=E2=80=99s really just a quest=
ion of how much of that cash flow they end up capturing.=E2=80=9D</p><div c=
lass=3D"embed-paragraph-wrapper" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px =
0px 30px"></div><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-=
height:1.5">The beneficiaries extend beyond oil majors. With about one-fift=
h of global LNG supplies normally being shipped through the Strait of Hormu=
z, US LNG firms such as Venture Global and Cheniere Energy are well positio=
ned to gain as buyers seek more secure supplies.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:=
border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">=E2=80=9CI would say probab=
ly most companies without a very concentrated Middle East or, let=E2=80=99s=
 say, west of Hormuz exposure stand to benefit. Some of that is going to in=
clude US shale oil players, Canadian oil sands players, the IOCs [Internati=
onal Oil Companies], producers in Latin America, LNG players like Venture G=
lobal who sell more into the spot market, so there are a number of winners =
here for different reasons,=E2=80=9D Liles told Al Jazeera.</p><p style=3D"=
box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">But analysts cau=
tion the windfall may be short-lived =E2=80=93 a tentative US-Iran ceasefir=
e has already pushed prices lower, and prolonged high energy costs risk wea=
kening demand and tipping economies towards recession.</p><h2 id=3D"gmail-d=
efence-contractors" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-height:1.3;font-fam=
ily:Roboto,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px=
 0px 10px;font-size:2rem">Defence contractors</h2><p style=3D"box-sizing:bo=
rder-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">Within days of the first US-I=
srael strikes on Iran at the end of February, the heads of the world=E2=80=
=99s largest=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/9/which-=
us-and-israeli-military-companies-are-profiting-from-the-iran-war" target=
=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-colo=
r:transparent;color:rgb(0,89,165)">arms manufacturers</a>=C2=A0met at the W=
hite House and agreed to ramp up weapons production as US munitions stockpi=
les dwindled.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line=
-height:1.5">Executives from RTX, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman=
, BAE Systems, L3Harris and Honeywell attended the talks. All are sitting o=
n billions of dollars in orders, backlogs that are likely to grow as govern=
ments rush to replenish their arsenals.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-bo=
x;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">Only weeks before the conflict, US P=
resident Donald Trump approved a $500bn increase in defence funding sought =
by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. On March 19, Hegseth defended a furth=
er request of $200bn in additional funding from Congress by telling reporte=
rs, =E2=80=9CIt takes money to kill bad guys.=E2=80=9D</p><p style=3D"box-s=
izing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">Investors have alread=
y begun betting on a prolonged boom. The strongest performances came from B=
oeing, RTX, L3Harris and Northrop Grumman, all of which reported solid reve=
nue growth and either raised or reaffirmed their full-year guidance.</p><p =
style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">Boeing=
=E2=80=99s revenue climbed 14 percent to $22.2bn in the first three months =
of the year from higher aircraft deliveries. Though the company remained lo=
ss-making, it significantly narrowed its net loss to $7m from $31m in the s=
ame period a year earlier. Meanwhile, Northrop Grumman=E2=80=99s orders bac=
klog hit a record $95.6bn, boosted by the addition of classified programmes=
 and F-35-related work.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px=
 30px;line-height:1.5">The war is reinforcing an already lucrative model, e=
xperts say. US defence contracts account for a substantial share of revenue=
s for munitions producers. Between 2020 and 2024, private firms received $2=
.4 trillion in Pentagon contracts =E2=80=93 more than half of the departmen=
t=E2=80=99s discretionary spending,=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://costsofwar.wats=
on.brown.edu/sites/default/files/papers/Profits-of-War_Hartung-Semler_Costs=
-of-War_Quincy-FINAL.pdf" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:t=
ransparent;color:rgb(0,89,165)">according to</a>=C2=A0the Quincy Institute =
for Responsible Statecraft and the Costs of War project at Brown University=
=E2=80=99s Watson School of International and Public Affairs, published las=
t year. One-third ($771bn) of those contracts went to just five companies: =
Lockheed Martin, RTX, Boeing, General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman.</p><di=
v class=3D"embed-paragraph-wrapper" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0=
px 0px 30px"></div><h2 id=3D"gmail-freight-and-insurance-companies" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-height:1.3;font-family:Roboto,&quot;Helvetic=
a Neue&quot;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:2rem"=
>Freight and insurance companies</h2><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;marg=
in:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">The disruption has created longer voyages =
and shipping bottlenecks have in effect removed almost 7 percent of the glo=
bal tanker fleet from circulation, according to European financial services=
 firm Kepler Cheuvreux, sending freight rates =E2=80=93 the cost of shippin=
g cargo =E2=80=93 to historic highs.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;m=
argin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">Rates on the benchmark Middle East Gulf=
 to East Asia route, a direct measure of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz=
, jumped from about 100 Worldscale points before the conflict to more than =
500. Worldscale is an index used to price tanker freight rates, where 100 r=
epresents a standard baseline rate for a given route. For a very large crud=
e carrier (VLCC) hauling 260,000 tonnes of oil, that translates into millio=
ns of dollars per trip.</p><div class=3D"embed-paragraph-wrapper" style=3D"=
box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px"></div><p style=3D"box-sizing:bor=
der-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">The main beneficiaries have be=
en specialist tanker operators such as Frontline and DHT Holdings, whose ea=
rnings rise directly with freight rates. Frontline, the world=E2=80=99s fif=
th-largest oil tanker shipping company, reported revenues of more than $536=
m in the first quarter, while DHT secured charter rates of more than $100,0=
00 a day for some of its vessels.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;marg=
in:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">The conflict has also been profitable for =
marine insurers.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;l=
ine-height:1.5">Within days of the outbreak of hostilities, war-risk premiu=
ms for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz surged fivefold. Insurance c=
osts that previously stood at about 0.25 percent of a ship=E2=80=99s value =
climbed to 1.5 percent and, in some cases, as high as 10 percent. Leading i=
nsurers, including Gard, Skuld and NorthStandard, have increased premiums f=
or Gulf transits from a baseline of 0.15-0.25 percent of vessel value to as=
 high as 1.5 percent.</p><div class=3D"gmail-container--connatix-ads" style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box"></div><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0=
px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">For a tanker worth $100m, a single voyage thro=
ugh the Gulf could cost in the region of $1.5m to insure.</p><p style=3D"bo=
x-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">War-risk insurance=
 is mandatory for vessels operating in conflict zones and insurers have bee=
n able to rapidly reprice policies as the Gulf=E2=80=99s risk profile deter=
iorated. Analysts say demand for standalone war-risk cover is likely to rem=
ain elevated long after the fighting ends as shipowners and cargo operators=
 reassess the risks of operating in the region.</p><div class=3D"embed-para=
graph-wrapper" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px"></div><p=
 style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">Consta=
ntin Gurdgiev, professor of finance at Monfort College of Business, Univers=
ity of Northern Colorado, says insurers face three competing forces: the ab=
ility to rapidly reprice policies and pass on risks to customers, growing e=
xposure from vessels already insured and stranded in conflict zones, and a =
lasting shift in the Gulf=E2=80=99s risk profile that is likely to keep dem=
and for war-risk cover elevated long after the fighting ends.</p><p style=
=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">=E2=80=9CAs =
long as we are not seeing a dramatic increase in losses sustained by civili=
an vessels, the second effect will be dominated by the first and the third =
effects, driving up short and medium-term profitability of the war insurers=
.=E2=80=9D Gurdgiev told Al Jazeera: =E2=80=9CHowever, if ongoing hostiliti=
es accelerate and spread more to the civilian infrastructure, the second ef=
fect can drive substantial losses to the insurance companies.=E2=80=9D</p><=
h2 id=3D"gmail-wall-street-banks" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;line-heigh=
t:1.3;font-family:Roboto,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-se=
rif;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:2rem">Wall Street banks</h2><p style=3D"b=
ox-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">The war has also =
been good for Wall Street.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px =
0px 30px;line-height:1.5">The conflict triggered sharp swings in oil, curre=
ncies and bond markets, prompting investors to rapidly reposition their por=
tfolios and driving a surge in trading activity. For the biggest US banks, =
volatility translated into higher fees and stronger trading revenues.</p><p=
 style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">The si=
x largest US investment banks =E2=80=93 JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Ci=
tigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo =E2=80=93 collective=
ly earned nearly $48bn in profits in the first three months of 2026.</p><p =
style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">JPMorga=
n, the largest US bank, reported a 13 percent increase in profits, with a n=
et income of $16.5bn, compared with $14.6bn in the same period a year prior=
. Bank of America made $8.6bn compared with about $7.4bn, while Citigroup, =
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo each generated more than $5bn=
 in quarterly profits compared with profits between $4.1 to $4.9bn in the s=
ame period a year earlier.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px =
0px 30px;line-height:1.5">The biggest gains came from trading desks special=
ising in fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC).</p><div class=3D"=
embed-paragraph-wrapper" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px=
"></div><h2 id=3D"gmail-prediction-market-punters" style=3D"box-sizing:bord=
er-box;line-height:1.3;font-family:Roboto,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Helvet=
ica,Arial,sans-serif;margin:0px 0px 10px;font-size:2rem">Prediction market =
punters</h2><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-heig=
ht:1.5">The conflict has generated scrutiny over a pattern of suspiciously =
timed trades on prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi =E2=80=93=
 online exchanges where speculators place wagers on the outcome of real-wor=
ld events.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-he=
ight:1.5">On March 23, $580m in oil futures flooded the market, resulting i=
n a sudden spike in volume =E2=80=93 nine times the normal =E2=80=93 roughl=
y 16 minutes before Trump announced a pause in strikes on Iranian power pla=
nts.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1=
.5">In April, at least 50 newly created accounts collectively made hundreds=
 of thousands of dollars betting on a US-Iran ceasefire in the moments befo=
re Trump announced it on social media.</p><p style=3D"box-sizing:border-box=
;margin:0px 0px 30px;line-height:1.5">A Yale University=C2=A0<a href=3D"htt=
ps://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2026/03/25/from-iran-to-taylor-swift-informed-=
trading-in-prediction-markets/" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener" style=3D=
"box-sizing:border-box;background-color:transparent;color:rgb(0,89,165)">an=
alysis</a>=C2=A0of trading patterns found that suspicious accounts were win=
ning nearly 70 percent of their bets across more than 200,000 flagged cases=
 =E2=80=93 a hit rate so far above what random chance would predict that re=
searchers say it is statistically almost impossible to occur without some f=
orm of prior knowledge. Estimated profits from these trades reached $143m.<=
/p></div></div></div>

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 https://x.com/CraigMokhiber/status/2071222123691999371
There are many shocking provisions in the scandalous =E2=80=9Cagreement=E2=
=80=9D signed by Lebanon and the Israeli regime, but none more shocking tha=
n point 13 whereby Lebanon purports to give up its international legal clai=
ms against the Israeli occupation. But a news flash for the US-Israel Axis:=
 Article 47 of the 4th Geneva Convention explicitly states that protected p=
ersons in occupied territories cannot be deprived of the benefits of the Co=
nvention=E2=80=9Cby any agreement concluded between the authorities of the =
occupied territories and the Occupying Power." The rights and protections g=
uaranteed under IHL=20
cannot legally be signed away or contractually waived, not by Lebanese offi=
cials, not by the occupying Israeli regime, and not by its complicit US all=
y. Point 13 is null and void as a matter of law, and the other provisions o=
f this absurd surrender deal will eventually follow it into the trash bin o=
f history.     On Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 05:29:11 PM GMT+5, Chas Freeman =
via Salon <salon@listserve.com> wrote: =20
=20
 https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/what-lebanon-actually-signed-=
away-in-its-deal-with--israel
6/28/26

What Lebanon actually signed away in its deal with 'Israel'

What's worse than signing away sixty southern Lebanese villages to the Isra=
eli occupation in exchange for nothing? Doing it when a far better alternat=
ive was sitting on the table. And what's worse than that? Doing it in the n=
ame of "sovereignty."

Lebanese and Israeli officials are both calling Friday's trilateral framewo=
rk, signed in Washington under US sponsorship, "historic." In a narrow sens=
e, they are right. The Lebanese state has legitimized the continued occupat=
ion of the South, handed "Israel" an outcome it could never have secured th=
rough war, and thrown a lifeline to a Netanyahu government that badly neede=
d one.

Yet, calling Friday's framework "trilateral" is somewhat misleading. The wo=
rd suggests three sides walked into the room, when in essence, there was on=
e. The Lebanese delegation arrived with its friends and enemies already set=
tled, just as the US and Israeli delegations did.

Lebanon's friends, by this framework's own logic, are Washington and the oc=
cupation. Its enemies, based on the March 2 governmental decree to criminal=
ize the Resistance, are Hezbollah and, behind it, Iran.

The Resistance is now the enemy

The text states plainly that "Israel's" military actions in Lebanon are "so=
lely a consequence" of the threat posed by "non-state armed groups," and th=
at ending this threat through their disarmament will "eliminate any future =
need" for Israeli military action in Lebanon.

In other words, the Lebanese authority has signed onto the idea that "Israe=
l," an enemy state under Lebanon's own law, is no longer the aggressor; Hez=
bollah is. Contrary to what a chronically online vocal minority might want =
you to believe, the Israeli regime is not an enemy state in Lebanese law on=
ly; roughly 87% of the Lebanese population views "Israel" as an enemy.

The Lebanese state goes on to commit, in its own words, to rejecting "the c=
laims of any state or non-state actor to use force on its behalf without it=
s explicit authorization," and to treating any such claim as "illegal" and =
"contrary to Lebanese national interests." Resistance to occupation, someth=
ing international law has never required a government's permission to exerc=
ise, becomes a domestic crime the moment a government decides to call it on=
e.

This matters because of who exactly the Lebanese state has just declared a =
threat to itself, as Hezbollah's constituency is not a fringe. Beyond being=
 the largest political party in the country, recent polling puts opposition=
 to disarmament at somewhere between 92 and 96 percent among Lebanon's Shia=
 community. A government cannot describe more than a third of its own popul=
ation as a security threat and call that an act of sovereignty.

Redeployment is not withdrawal

Search the entire text of the framework for the word withdrawal, and you wi=
ll not find it. "Israel" commits only to "progressively redeploy," a phrase=
 that appears nowhere in international law and exists only for to avoid the=
 obligations that come with acknowledging an occupation.

Aaron David Miller, who spent twenty-four years at the US State Department =
negotiating Arab-Israeli normalization deals, pointed it out. "Israel had p=
retty good lawyers," he wrote. "The word withdrawal doesn't appear, redeplo=
yment does."

Netanyahu and his war minister have also removed any ambiguity about what r=
edeployment actually means. "Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon," war mi=
nister Israel Katz said after the signing, "and will maintain the security =
zone in the south, and will preserve the army's freedom of action." Netanya=
hu described the same outcome as "a major achievement" that the occupation =
"will maintain as long as Hezbollah has not disarmed and as long as there i=
s a threat to the State of Israel," a condition that "Israel" alone gets to=
 assess.

Even the two pilot zones offered as evidence of Israeli concessions are not=
 what they appear to be. One sits south of the Litani River, outside the "s=
ecurity zone" that the Israeli occupation already controls. The other, Neta=
nyahu explained, is "a small part of the expanded security zone we gained o=
ver the past two weeks, which the Israeli army does not need, and it says s=
o in the clearest possible terms."

However, to no one's surprise, Netanyahu is lying. The occupation never act=
ually established control over those areas to begin with, so Netanyahu is o=
ffering up land he only ever claimed to have taken.

Lebanon is being asked to celebrate the return of land the Israeli military=
 says has no value to it, or even putting territories that were never occup=
ied under the so-called pilot zone model, while the original security zone,=
 including the area occupied specifically to allegedly "push back the Radwa=
n Force," stays put regardless of what happens with disarmament.

Still no ceasefire

For all the talk of de-escalation, the framework does not contain a ceasefi=
re either.

"Israel" is not named anywhere in relation to halting its own attacks. The =
document conditions calm not on "Israel" ending its aggression, withdrawing=
 from occupied territory, releasing prisoners, or allowing the displaced to=
 return, but on Hezbollah ceasing fire and withdrawing.

What is being sold as a cessation of hostilities is structured, in practice=
, as the removal of Lebanese citizens from their own land, not the removal =
of an occupying army from it.

No court, no compensation, no answers on the prisoners

Ironically, the Lebanese government, headed by the former President of the =
International Court of Justice, signed away its own legal recourse.

The text commits both sides to "the cessation of all hostile or adverse act=
ions in international political or legal fora," language that independent l=
awmaker Halima El Kaakour challenged directly to the president and prime mi=
nister. "Does this mean not pursuing the enemy for its war crimes and crime=
s against humanity?" she asked, warning that the clause "deprives Lebanon o=
f the possibility of substantial financial compensation" and amounts to ens=
hrining impunity rather than building peace.

Under this clause, Lebanon gives up any path to the ICC, any formal complai=
nt at the UN Security Council, any pursuit of accountability for the Black =
Wednesday massacre, the pager attacks, or any of the killings carried out o=
ver the past three years.

The same passage leaves Lebanese prisoners and the forcibly disappeared in =
legal limbo. There is no commitment from "Israel" to disclose their fate, a=
llow Red Cross visits, or guarantee their release, the obligations internat=
ional humanitarian law already requires.

The fine print

Almost everything written into this framework imposes a hard, specific obli=
gation on Lebanon while leaving "Israel" and the United States with languag=
e soft enough to mean whatever they need it to mean later.

Lebanon's commitment to disarm "all non-state armed groups" across the enti=
re country is unconditional and described as irreversible. The Israeli regi=
me's "redeployment," by contrast, depends on a "Security Annex" that has no=
t been published, verified by criteria the US will set, with Washington cas=
t as a neutral arbiter despite being "Israel's" principal sponsor and arms =
supplier.

Reconstruction is structured the same way. Funds are barred from reaching a=
ny "individual" affiliated with a non-state armed group, not just organizat=
ions. Given how much of the South's population has some connection to the R=
esistance, this clause functions less like counterterrorism financing and m=
ore like a blanket ban on rebuilding most of the destroyed villages in the =
South.

Even the word "communities" appears only once in the entire text, and it re=
fers to Israeli communities. South Lebanon, where the actual destruction ha=
ppened, is treated as a depopulated piece of land, empty of a "community" i=
n need of protection.

April 8: The original sin

To understand just how little weight Lebanon's own diplomacy carried in any=
 of this, and how easily its government let itself be used by the same regi=
me bombing it, it helps to go back to how these talks actually started.

President Joseph Aoun signaled willingness for direct talks with the occupa=
tion regime back in early March, only for "Israel" to publicly humiliate th=
e offer. Sources told=C2=A0Reuters=C2=A0that Lebanon had "nothing tangible =
to offer at a negotiating table." Foreign Minister Gideon Saar was asked wh=
ether talks with Lebanon were planned and answered, "No." For roughly four =
weeks, the same government that insisted only it had the standing to negoti=
ate a ceasefire could not get "Israel" to even sit down, while the bombing =
continued.

The turning point came on April 8, when Pakistan's prime minister announced=
 a ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon, as part of the Islamabad=
 track Iran had insisted on. Within hours, the 'Israeli' regime made clear =
it was not committing to any ceasefire in Lebanon specifically. Simultaneou=
sly, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declared that securing a ceasefire was a "s=
overeign matter" only the Lebanese government could negotiate, rejecting an=
y truce that arrived through Iran.

In doing so, Salam handed legitimacy to the massacre that followed within h=
ours, on what has since become known as Black Wednesday, when Israeli attac=
ks murdered more than 350 people across Lebanon in ten minutes.

The killings drew international condemnation, the kind that under any gover=
nment with a spine would have hardened Beirut's position rather than soften=
ed it. Instead, the Lebanese state kept pursuing the same direct, bilateral=
 channel, the first of its kind in decades, with the same regime that had j=
ust massacred hundreds of its people in minutes.

Then, just as suddenly, Netanyahu reversed course entirely. He framed it as=
 responding to Lebanon's "repeated requests" for talks, the same requests h=
is government had spent a month publicly mocking. "Israel" was not respondi=
ng to an improvement in Lebanese diplomacy. It was responding to Iran, whic=
h had just made an end to hostilities in Lebanon a non-negotiable piece of =
any wider de-escalation.

Netanyahu was not about to let Tehran dictate the terms of Israeli activity=
 in Lebanon, so he made sure Beirut delivered those terms to him directly i=
nstead.

What Pakistan got that Washington didn't

The contrast with what Iran actually negotiated for Lebanon in the Islamaba=
d track versus what Lebanon's own government did in Washington is immense.

The Islamabad memorandum called for an immediate ceasefire on the Lebanon f=
ront, full Israeli withdrawal from the South and all Lebanese territory wit=
hin two months, extension of Lebanese state authority over the entire count=
ry, and a Hezbollah weapons question handled through an internal national s=
ecurity strategy rather than as a precondition for anything. Both sides ret=
ained the right to self-defense if attacked, and the threshold for declarin=
g the danger over was never left to "Israel" alone to decide.

The Washington framework inverts every one of those terms. There is no imme=
diate ceasefire. There is no timeline at all. The Lebanese state's authorit=
y expands only gradually, based on Israeli judgment, through pilot zones, a=
fter weapons are removed, not before.

"Israel" keeps the so-called "freedom of military action" throughout the So=
uth whenever it perceives a threat, while Lebanon's army is confined to spe=
cific zones it must first earn through performance. And withdrawal, such as=
 it is, depends entirely on "Israel's" own assessment of whether the threat=
 has ended.

The Iran-US memorandum required full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as a c=
ondition of any comprehensive deal. Lebanon's government had that outcome s=
itting in front of it, unconditional and on a clock, without having to give=
 up anything in return. It chose this framework instead.

A sovereign decision, as long as 'Israel' signs off first

What makes this hardest to defend is the gap between what Lebanese official=
s are telling the public and what "Israel's" own officials are saying about=
 the exact same document.

President Aoun's office described Friday's signing as the first step toward=
 restoring "the sovereignty of the Lebanese state over all its territory, w=
ithout the loss of a single inch," and promised the Lebanese people they wo=
uld return to a fully liberated land, with "no more occupation, no prisoner=
s, no dependency, and no tutelage." Prime Minister Salam went further, sayi=
ng the framework "aims to secure an Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese te=
rritory" and restore full state sovereignty.

War minister Katz called the same agreement "a historic event and an import=
ant political and security achievement for Israel." Asked what that achieve=
ment actually was, he proclaimed that "Israel will not withdraw from Lebano=
n," adding that it "will maintain the security zone in the south, and will =
preserve the army's freedom of action."

Netanyahu opened his address on Saturday the same way. "I want to tell you =
about a major achievement for the State of Israel," he said, before explain=
ing that the achievement was that "Israel" "remains, first and foremost, in=
 the security zone in southern Lebanon," a presence he said it "will mainta=
in as long as Hezbollah has not disarmed."

Both governments are describing the same piece of paper. One says it secure=
s full withdrawal and total sovereignty. The other says, in plain language,=
 on the record, on the same day, that nobody is withdrawing and that stayin=
g put is the achievement. Either Lebanon's government did not read the docu=
ment it signed, or it is telling its own people something it knows is not t=
rue.

A recipe for civil war

Israeli settlers received a far clearer picture of the agreement from their=
 national broadcasters than the Lebanese population.=C2=A0Channel 13=C2=A0h=
ost Rafi Droker said plainly that "the Israeli plan in Lebanon is to divide=
 the country and plunge it into a civil war to force the Lebanese governmen=
t to confront Hezbollah militarily," and military correspondent Alon Ben-Da=
vid confirmed it was "the Israeli goal from the beginning."

It is not hard to see how that would actually play out. The framework asks =
the Lebanese army, a national institution built on cross-sectarian consensu=
s, to enter the South and dismantle Hezbollah's positions under Israeli and=
 US supervision.

Hezbollah is not going to disarm voluntarily, and the army has no mandate, =
no appetite, and no realistic capacity to force the issue without turning i=
ts own ranks, and the country around them, against each other.

A force meant to hold Lebanon together would become the instrument that tea=
rs it apart, fighting a domestic enemy on behalf of the same regime still o=
ccupying its land.

Lebanon already tried this in 1983

This is not the first time a Lebanese government has signed an agreement wi=
th "Israel" under US sponsorship that promised peace and delivered occupati=
on.

In 1983, the Gemayel government signed the May 17 Agreement after the 1982 =
invasion, with a written, named Israeli commitment to withdraw all forces w=
ithin eight to twelve weeks. It collapsed within a year, rejected by the po=
litical forces strong enough to block it, and canceled by the Lebanese parl=
iament in March 1984.

The 2026 framework does not even reach the bar that the May 17 Agreement se=
t.

The earlier document at least named Israeli withdrawal as an obligation, ho=
wever, conditional in practice. This one does not contain the word at all. =
And unlike 1983, when Israeli troops occupied Beirut, and the Lebanese stat=
e was negotiating, effectively with a gun to its head, today's government h=
as no such excuse. There is no foreign army in the capital, and Hezbollah's=
 military capacity is reconstituting rather than collapsing, with its drone=
 and anti-tank tactics already producing real losses on the IOF. Iran is ne=
gotiating with Washington from a position of regional strength, not weaknes=
s, and made a Lebanon ceasefire a centerpiece of those talks. Lebanon had d=
iplomatic leverage in 2026 that it simply did not have in 1983, and chose n=
ot to use it.

It is worth letting Hezbollah have the last word here, since this is the si=
de the entire framework was built to silence. Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah=
 addressed Netanyahu directly on the day the agreement was signed. "You hav=
e reached an agreement with one who possesses nothing," he said. "The state=
 of hostility toward Israel will remain, and whoever shakes hands with the =
enemy is complicit in its crimes."
--=20
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<div>                https://x.com/CraigMokhiber/status/2071222123691999371=
<br>There are many shocking provisions in the scandalous =E2=80=9Cagreement=
=E2=80=9D signed by Lebanon and the Israeli regime, but none more shocking =
than point 13 whereby Lebanon  purports to give up its international legal =
claims against the Israeli occupation. But a news flash for the US-Israel A=
xis:  Article 47 of the 4th Geneva Convention explicitly states that protec=
ted persons in occupied territories cannot be deprived of the benefits of t=
he Convention=E2=80=9Cby any agreement concluded between the authorities of=
 the occupied territories and the Occupying Power.&quot; The rights and pro=
tections guaranteed under IHL <br>cannot legally be signed away or contract=
ually waived, not by Lebanese officials, not by the occupying Israeli regim=
e, and not by its complicit US ally. Point 13 is null and void as a matter =
of law, and the other provisions of this absurd surrender deal will eventua=
lly follow it into the trash bin of history.            </div>            <=
div class=3D"yahoo_quoted" style=3D"margin:10px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1=
px solid #ccc;padding-left:1ex;">                        <div style=3D"font=
-family:'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:13px;color=
:#26282a;">                                <div>                        On =
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 05:29:11 PM GMT+5, Chas Freeman via Salon &lt;salo=
n@listserve.com&gt; wrote:                    </div>                    <di=
v><br></div>                    <div><br></div>                            =
                    <div><div id=3D"yiv5130414253"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div cl=
ass=3D"yiv5130414253gmail_quote yiv5130414253gmail_quote_container"><div di=
r=3D"ltr" class=3D"yiv5130414253gmail_attr"><b style=3D"background-color:tr=
ansparent;"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><a rel=3D"nofol=
low noopener noreferrer" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://english.almayade=
en.net/news/politics/what-lebanon-actually-signed-away-in-its-deal-with--is=
rael">https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/what-lebanon-actually-si=
gned-away-in-its-deal-with--israel</a></font></b></div><div dir=3D"ltr" cla=
ss=3D"yiv5130414253gmail_attr"><b style=3D"background-color:transparent;"><=
br></b></div><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"yiv5130414253gmail_attr"><span style=
=3D"background-color:transparent;">6/28/26</span></div><div dir=3D"ltr"><di=
v dir=3D"ltr"><div><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><br><=
/font></b></div><div><h1 style=3D"line-height:1.2141em;margin-top:0px;margi=
n-bottom:0.5em;max-width:100%;"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, se=
rif" size=3D"4"><i>What Lebanon actually signed away in its deal with 'Isra=
el'</i></font></h1><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" =
face=3D"georgia, serif">What's worse than signing away sixty southern Leban=
ese villages to the Israeli occupation in exchange for nothing? Doing it wh=
en a far better alternative was sitting on the table. And what's worse than=
 that? Doing it in the name of "sovereignty."</font></b></p><p style=3D"max=
-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Lebanese a=
nd Israeli officials are both calling Friday's trilateral framework, signed=
 in Washington under US sponsorship, "historic." In a narrow sense, they ar=
e right. The Lebanese state has legitimized the continued occupation of the=
 South, handed "Israel" an outcome it could never have secured through war,=
 and thrown a lifeline to a Netanyahu government that badly needed one.</fo=
nt></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"=
georgia, serif">Yet, calling Friday's framework "trilateral" is somewhat mi=
sleading. The word suggests three sides walked into the room, when in essen=
ce, there was one. The Lebanese delegation arrived with its friends and ene=
mies already settled, just as the US and Israeli delegations did.</font></b=
></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgi=
a, serif">Lebanon's friends, by this framework's own logic, are Washington =
and the occupation. Its enemies, based on the March 2 governmental decree t=
o criminalize the Resistance, are Hezbollah and, behind it, Iran.</font></b=
></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%;"><font size=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=
=3D"georgia, serif">The Resistance is now the enemy</font></h2><p style=3D"=
max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The tex=
t states plainly that "Israel's" military actions in Lebanon are "solely a =
consequence" of the threat posed by "non-state armed groups," and that endi=
ng this threat through their disarmament will "eliminate any future need" f=
or Israeli military action in Lebanon.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:=
100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">In other words, t=
he Lebanese authority has signed onto the idea that "Israel," an enemy stat=
e under Lebanon's own law, is no longer the aggressor; Hezbollah is. Contra=
ry to what a chronically online vocal minority might want you to believe, t=
he Israeli regime is not an enemy state in Lebanese law only; roughly 87% o=
f the Lebanese population views "Israel" as an enemy.</font></b></p><p styl=
e=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Th=
e Lebanese state goes on to commit, in its own words, to rejecting "the cla=
ims of any state or non-state actor to use force on its behalf without its =
explicit authorization," and to treating any such claim as "illegal" and "c=
ontrary to Lebanese national interests." Resistance to occupation, somethin=
g international law has never required a government's permission to exercis=
e, becomes a domestic crime the moment a government decides to call it one.=
</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=
=3D"georgia, serif">This matters because of who exactly the Lebanese state =
has just declared a threat to itself, as Hezbollah's constituency is not a =
fringe. Beyond being the largest political party in the country, recent pol=
ling puts opposition to disarmament at somewhere between 92 and 96 percent =
among Lebanon's Shia community. A government cannot describe more than a th=
ird of its own population as a security threat and call that an act of sove=
reignty.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%;"><font size=3D"2" color=
=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Redeployment is not withdrawal</font><=
/h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia=
, serif">Search the entire text of the framework for the word withdrawal, a=
nd you will not find it. "Israel" commits only to "progressively redeploy,"=
 a phrase that appears nowhere in international law and exists only for to =
avoid the obligations that come with acknowledging an occupation.</font></b=
></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgi=
a, serif">Aaron David Miller, who spent twenty-four years at the US State D=
epartment negotiating Arab-Israeli normalization deals, pointed it out. "Is=
rael had pretty good lawyers," he wrote. "The word withdrawal doesn't appea=
r, redeployment does."</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font =
color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Netanyahu and his war minister ha=
ve also removed any ambiguity about what redeployment actually means. "Isra=
el will not withdraw from Lebanon," war minister Israel Katz said after the=
 signing, "and will maintain the security zone in the south, and will prese=
rve the army's freedom of action." Netanyahu described the same outcome as =
"a major achievement" that the occupation "will maintain as long as Hezboll=
ah has not disarmed and as long as there is a threat to the State of Israel=
," a condition that "Israel" alone gets to assess.</font></b></p><p style=
=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Eve=
n the two pilot zones offered as evidence of Israeli concessions are not wh=
at they appear to be. One sits south of the Litani River, outside the "secu=
rity zone" that the Israeli occupation already controls. The other, Netanya=
hu explained, is "a small part of the expanded security zone we gained over=
 the past two weeks, which the Israeli army does not need, and it says so i=
n the clearest possible terms."</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;">=
<b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">However, to no one's sur=
prise, Netanyahu is lying. The occupation never actually established contro=
l over those areas to begin with, so Netanyahu is offering up land he only =
ever claimed to have taken.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><=
font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Lebanon is being asked to ce=
lebrate the return of land the Israeli military says has no value to it, or=
 even putting territories that were never occupied under the so-called pilo=
t zone model, while the original security zone, including the area occupied=
 specifically to allegedly "push back the Radwan Force," stays put regardle=
ss of what happens with disarmament.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:1=
00%;"><font size=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Still no c=
easefire</font></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000"=
 face=3D"georgia, serif">For all the talk of de-escalation, the framework d=
oes not contain a ceasefire either.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100=
%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">"Israel" is not name=
d anywhere in relation to halting its own attacks. The document conditions =
calm not on "Israel" ending its aggression, withdrawing from occupied terri=
tory, releasing prisoners, or allowing the displaced to return, but on Hezb=
ollah ceasing fire and withdrawing.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100=
%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">What is being sold a=
s a cessation of hostilities is structured, in practice, as the removal of =
Lebanese citizens from their own land, not the removal of an occupying army=
 from it.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%;"><font size=3D"2" colo=
r=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">No court, no compensation, no answers=
 on the prisoners</font></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D=
"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Ironically, the Lebanese government, head=
ed by the former President of the International Court of Justice, signed aw=
ay its own legal recourse.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><f=
ont color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The text commits both sides t=
o "the cessation of all hostile or adverse actions in international politic=
al or legal fora," language that independent lawmaker Halima El Kaakour cha=
llenged directly to the president and prime minister. "Does this mean not p=
ursuing the enemy for its war crimes and crimes against humanity?" she aske=
d, warning that the clause "deprives Lebanon of the possibility of substant=
ial financial compensation" and amounts to enshrining impunity rather than =
building peace.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=
=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Under this clause, Lebanon gives up an=
y path to the ICC, any formal complaint at the UN Security Council, any pur=
suit of accountability for the Black Wednesday massacre, the pager attacks,=
 or any of the killings carried out over the past three years.</font></b></=
p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, =
serif">The same passage leaves Lebanese prisoners and the forcibly disappea=
red in legal limbo. There is no commitment from "Israel" to disclose their =
fate, allow Red Cross visits, or guarantee their release, the obligations i=
nternational humanitarian law already requires.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"=
max-width:100%;"><font size=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"=
>The fine print</font></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#=
000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Almost everything written into this framewo=
rk imposes a hard, specific obligation on Lebanon while leaving "Israel" an=
d the United States with language soft enough to mean whatever they need it=
 to mean later.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=
=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Lebanon's commitment to disarm "all no=
n-state armed groups" across the entire country is unconditional and descri=
bed as irreversible. The Israeli regime's "redeployment," by contrast, depe=
nds on a "Security Annex" that has not been published, verified by criteria=
 the US will set, with Washington cast as a neutral arbiter despite being "=
Israel's" principal sponsor and arms supplier.</font></b></p><p style=3D"ma=
x-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Reconstru=
ction is structured the same way. Funds are barred from reaching any "indiv=
idual" affiliated with a non-state armed group, not just organizations. Giv=
en how much of the South's population has some connection to the Resistance=
, this clause functions less like counterterrorism financing and more like =
a blanket ban on rebuilding most of the destroyed villages in the South.</f=
ont></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D=
"georgia, serif">Even the word "communities" appears only once in the entir=
e text, and it refers to Israeli communities. South Lebanon, where the actu=
al destruction happened, is treated as a depopulated piece of land, empty o=
f a "community" in need of protection.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width=
:100%;"><font size=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">April 8:=
 The original sin</font></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D=
"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">To understand just how little weight Leba=
non's own diplomacy carried in any of this, and how easily its government l=
et itself be used by the same regime bombing it, it helps to go back to how=
 these talks actually started.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><=
b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">President Joseph Aoun sig=
naled willingness for direct talks with the occupation regime back in early=
 March, only for "Israel" to publicly humiliate the offer. Sources told<spa=
n>&nbsp;</span><em style=3D"max-width:100%;">Reuters</em><span>&nbsp;</span=
>that Lebanon had "nothing tangible to offer at a negotiating table." Forei=
gn Minister Gideon Saar was asked whether talks with Lebanon were planned a=
nd answered, "No." For roughly four weeks, the same government that insiste=
d only it had the standing to negotiate a ceasefire could not get "Israel" =
to even sit down, while the bombing continued.</font></b></p><p style=3D"ma=
x-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The turni=
ng point came on April 8, when Pakistan's prime minister announced a ceasef=
ire across all fronts, including Lebanon, as part of the Islamabad track Ir=
an had insisted on. Within hours, the 'Israeli' regime made clear it was no=
t committing to any ceasefire in Lebanon specifically. Simultaneously, Prim=
e Minister Nawaf Salam declared that securing a ceasefire was a "sovereign =
matter" only the Lebanese government could negotiate, rejecting any truce t=
hat arrived through Iran.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><fo=
nt color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">In doing so, Salam handed legi=
timacy to the massacre that followed within hours, on what has since become=
 known as Black Wednesday, when Israeli attacks murdered more than 350 peop=
le across Lebanon in ten minutes.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;=
"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The killings drew inte=
rnational condemnation, the kind that under any government with a spine wou=
ld have hardened Beirut's position rather than softened it. Instead, the Le=
banese state kept pursuing the same direct, bilateral channel, the first of=
 its kind in decades, with the same regime that had just massacred hundreds=
 of its people in minutes.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><f=
ont color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Then, just as suddenly, Netan=
yahu reversed course entirely. He framed it as responding to Lebanon's "rep=
eated requests" for talks, the same requests his government had spent a mon=
th publicly mocking. "Israel" was not responding to an improvement in Leban=
ese diplomacy. It was responding to Iran, which had just made an end to hos=
tilities in Lebanon a non-negotiable piece of any wider de-escalation.</fon=
t></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"g=
eorgia, serif">Netanyahu was not about to let Tehran dictate the terms of I=
sraeli activity in Lebanon, so he made sure Beirut delivered those terms to=
 him directly instead.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%;"><font si=
ze=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">What Pakistan got that W=
ashington didn't</font></h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"=
#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The contrast with what Iran actually negot=
iated for Lebanon in the Islamabad track versus what Lebanon's own governme=
nt did in Washington is immense.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"=
><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The Islamabad memorandu=
m called for an immediate ceasefire on the Lebanon front, full Israeli with=
drawal from the South and all Lebanese territory within two months, extensi=
on of Lebanese state authority over the entire country, and a Hezbollah wea=
pons question handled through an internal national security strategy rather=
 than as a precondition for anything. Both sides retained the right to self=
-defense if attacked, and the threshold for declaring the danger over was n=
ever left to "Israel" alone to decide.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:=
100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The Washington fr=
amework inverts every one of those terms. There is no immediate ceasefire. =
There is no timeline at all. The Lebanese state's authority expands only gr=
adually, based on Israeli judgment, through pilot zones, after weapons are =
removed, not before.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font co=
lor=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">"Israel" keeps the so-called "freed=
om of military action" throughout the South whenever it perceives a threat,=
 while Lebanon's army is confined to specific zones it must first earn thro=
ugh performance. And withdrawal, such as it is, depends entirely on "Israel=
's" own assessment of whether the threat has ended.</font></b></p><p style=
=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The=
 Iran-US memorandum required full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as a cond=
ition of any comprehensive deal. Lebanon's government had that outcome sitt=
ing in front of it, unconditional and on a clock, without having to give up=
 anything in return. It chose this framework instead.</font></b></p><h2 sty=
le=3D"max-width:100%;"><font size=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, =
serif">A sovereign decision, as long as 'Israel' signs off first</font></h2=
><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, s=
erif">What makes this hardest to defend is the gap between what Lebanese of=
ficials are telling the public and what "Israel's" own officials are saying=
 about the exact same document.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;">=
<b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">President Aoun's office =
described Friday's signing as the first step toward restoring "the sovereig=
nty of the Lebanese state over all its territory, without the loss of a sin=
gle inch," and promised the Lebanese people they would return to a fully li=
berated land, with "no more occupation, no prisoners, no dependency, and no=
 tutelage." Prime Minister Salam went further, saying the framework "aims t=
o secure an Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese territory" and restore ful=
l state sovereignty.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font co=
lor=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">War minister Katz called the same a=
greement "a historic event and an important political and security achievem=
ent for Israel." Asked what that achievement actually was, he proclaimed th=
at "Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon," adding that it "will maintain t=
he security zone in the south, and will preserve the army's freedom of acti=
on."</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" =
face=3D"georgia, serif">Netanyahu opened his address on Saturday the same w=
ay. "I want to tell you about a major achievement for the State of Israel,"=
 he said, before explaining that the achievement was that "Israel" "remains=
, first and foremost, in the security zone in southern Lebanon," a presence=
 he said it "will maintain as long as Hezbollah has not disarmed."</font></=
b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georg=
ia, serif">Both governments are describing the same piece of paper. One say=
s it secures full withdrawal and total sovereignty. The other says, in plai=
n language, on the record, on the same day, that nobody is withdrawing and =
that staying put is the achievement. Either Lebanon's government did not re=
ad the document it signed, or it is telling its own people something it kno=
ws is not true.</font></b></p><h2 style=3D"max-width:100%;"><font size=3D"2=
" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">A recipe for civil war</font></=
h2><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia,=
 serif">Israeli settlers received a far clearer picture of the agreement fr=
om their national broadcasters than the Lebanese population.<span>&nbsp;</s=
pan><em style=3D"max-width:100%;">Channel 13</em><span>&nbsp;</span>host Ra=
fi Droker said plainly that "the Israeli plan in Lebanon is to divide the c=
ountry and plunge it into a civil war to force the Lebanese government to c=
onfront Hezbollah militarily," and military correspondent Alon Ben-David co=
nfirmed it was "the Israeli goal from the beginning."</font></b></p><p styl=
e=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">It=
 is not hard to see how that would actually play out. The framework asks th=
e Lebanese army, a national institution built on cross-sectarian consensus,=
 to enter the South and dismantle Hezbollah's positions under Israeli and U=
S supervision.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D=
"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Hezbollah is not going to disarm voluntar=
ily, and the army has no mandate, no appetite, and no realistic capacity to=
 force the issue without turning its own ranks, and the country around them=
, against each other.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font c=
olor=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">A force meant to hold Lebanon toge=
ther would become the instrument that tears it apart, fighting a domestic e=
nemy on behalf of the same regime still occupying its land.</font></b></p><=
h2 style=3D"max-width:100%;"><font size=3D"2" color=3D"#000000" face=3D"geo=
rgia, serif">Lebanon already tried this in 1983</font></h2><p style=3D"max-=
width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">This is not=
 the first time a Lebanese government has signed an agreement with "Israel"=
 under US sponsorship that promised peace and delivered occupation.</font><=
/b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"geor=
gia, serif">In 1983, the Gemayel government signed the May 17 Agreement aft=
er the 1982 invasion, with a written, named Israeli commitment to withdraw =
all forces within eight to twelve weeks. It collapsed within a year, reject=
ed by the political forces strong enough to block it, and canceled by the L=
ebanese parliament in March 1984.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;=
"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The 2026 framework doe=
s not even reach the bar that the May 17 Agreement set.</font></b></p><p st=
yle=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">=
The earlier document at least named Israeli withdrawal as an obligation, ho=
wever, conditional in practice. This one does not contain the word at all. =
And unlike 1983, when Israeli troops occupied Beirut, and the Lebanese stat=
e was negotiating, effectively with a gun to its head, today's government h=
as no such excuse. There is no foreign army in the capital, and Hezbollah's=
 military capacity is reconstituting rather than collapsing, with its drone=
 and anti-tank tactics already producing real losses on the IOF. Iran is ne=
gotiating with Washington from a position of regional strength, not weaknes=
s, and made a Lebanon ceasefire a centerpiece of those talks. Lebanon had d=
iplomatic leverage in 2026 that it simply did not have in 1983, and chose n=
ot to use it.</font></b></p><p style=3D"max-width:100%;"><b><font color=3D"=
#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">It is worth letting Hezbollah have the las=
t word here, since this is the side the entire framework was built to silen=
ce. Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah addressed Netanyahu directly on the day t=
he agreement was signed. "You have reached an agreement with one who posses=
ses nothing," he said. "The state of hostility toward Israel will remain, a=
nd whoever shakes hands with the enemy is complicit in its crimes."</font><=
/b></p></div></div></div></div></div></div>-- <br>Salon mailing list<br><a =
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