Don’t assume US decline will lead to its fall, warns Chinese scholar
Factors such as the US dollar and its lead in emerging technologies mean the US will be hard to supplant, academic Zheng Yongnian warns
Although the US is in decline, underestimating the country could still prove a “fatal mistake”, according to a prominent Chinese commentator.
“The United States is still a hegemony in decline. Even with its relative decline, it remains a hegemony because no nation or force is currently capable of truly taking its place,” Zheng Yongnian, dean of the school of public policy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, said.
In a recent interview with the Greater Bay Area Review, which is published by the university’s think tank The Institute for International Affairs, Qianhai, Zheng noted there was a “big gap” between being in decline and being “replaced” as the global hegemon.
He said the idea of the US being overtaken “remains purely hypothetical”, citing the dominance of the dollar as the primary reserve currency, alongside America’s superior military capabilities and edge in emerging technologies.
Gallup’s latest global approval ratings show that China has overtaken the US for the first time in almost two decades, with median approval of US leadership falling to 31 per cent last year while China’s climbed to 36 per cent.
Zheng said US hegemony was being “transformed and upgraded” by shifting towards dominance in space, cyberspace and setting global technological standards.
He added that the measures of imperial dominance no longer applied and Washington did not “necessarily care” about controlling land and resources. Instead it was building a new hegemony rooted in technology, and held a clear advantage in core algorithms, advanced computing power and chip architecture.
The US continues to dominate the global AI market as a result of its technological expertise and strategic positioning of leading companies, accounting for over 55 per cent of the market in 2025, according to market intelligence firm International Data Corporation.
“Today, American decline and resurgence coexist … Underestimating the US could lead to a fatal mistake,” Zheng said.
He added that Washington was hyping up China’s progress in AI, claiming it was only “days behind” the US and using the perceived threat to mobilise domestic resources.
After last year’s trade tensions, Beijing and Washington are now trying to forge a relationship based on “constructive strategic stability” following the meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing in May.
Alibaba, which owns the South China Morning Post, said there was “no basis” for its inclusion on the list, while Baidu said the accusations were “baseless”.
In retaliation, Beijing announced last month that it would add 10 American firms to its export control list, including two rare earth firms, while restricting 46 US firms from government contracts.