The Pew Research Center released its annual global public opinion survey on popular perceptions of the U.S. and China yesterday, which found that China is viewed more favorably in 25 of the 36 countries surveyed. The U.S. had a higher favorability rating in just six countries, with the two strategic rivals roughly equal in the remaining five. | Laura Silver, Pew’s associate director, characterized views of the U.S. as being “at or near historic lows.” | It’s not hard to understand why. Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump has pursued a foreign policy agenda that has alienated U.S. partners and allies, while also displaying an erratic approach to decision-making. That explains why less than 35 percent of people expressed confidence in him in 28 of the 36 countries polled, although confidence in Xi Jinping was not markedly better. | A closer look at the country-by-country results suggests that a good deal of the popular backlash to the U.S. stems from Trump’s tariffs, particularly in South and Southeast Asia. Seven of the nine countries where America’s favorability rating lagged that of China by 20 percent or more were hit hard by Trump’s trade war, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Elsewhere, like Mexico and Canada, a combination of tariffs and sovereignty concerns due to Trump’s provocations and threats were likely factors. | The low favorability for the U.S. among its NATO allies suggests a reaction to Trump’s disregard for the alliance. That his confidence rating is near or below 20 percent in Italy, Greece and Turkey—where it is at just 6 percent—makes it clear that Trump’s close ideological alignment with foreign leaders does not necessarily endear him to their populations. | There is also something to be learned, however, from the countries where favorability of the U.S. not only outpaces that of China but remains solid and even high: Poland, the Philippines, South Korea, India, Japan and Israel. All face significant security threats on their land or maritime borders, and all depend heavily on the U.S. for security guarantees, even as all except Poland were hard hit by Trump’s tariffs. This suggests that Trump could be turning the “Two Asias” phenomenon—developed by Evan Feigenbaum and Robert Manning back in 2012 to describe the region’s preference for security ties with the U.S. and economic ties with China—into a global dynamic. | We also shouldn’t ignore the five countries where respondents’ views of the U.S. and China were roughly equal and generally favorable for both: Brazil, Colombia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana. All have historically maintained relatively close political ties with the U.S., particularly Colombia and Kenya, but all have also benefited significantly from Chinese trade and investment. | One might expect popular opinions of the U.S. in these countries to be more negative, given America’s spotty historical record in South America and its general neglect of Africa. Instead, these countries’ populations clearly still consider America to have something valuable to offer. But their equal esteem for China suggests they do not wish to choose between the two global powers in what Washington has increasingly framed as a zero-sum strategic competition. | All of that said, it’s also important not to read too much into these results, particularly with regard to Trump as a causal factor. While U.S. favorability ratings have taken a hit since he returned to the White House, particularly among America’s NATO allies, this has historically been the case for all Republican presidents, who are generally less popular in Europe than their Democratic counterparts. | Moreover, the decline began in the last two years of the Biden administration, when America’s median favorability rating went from 58 percent to roughly 50 percent, and confidence in then-President Joe Biden “to do the right thing” dropped from 54 percent to roughly 40 percent. Though correlation is not causality, that does correspond to the first year of the war in Gaza, when Biden’s steadfast support for Israel went against the grain of global opinion. | Perhaps most striking, however, is the change in views in the countries surveyed on whether America and China respect the personal freedoms of their people, a question Pew last asked in 2021. As back then, more people in these countries believe the U.S. does so compared to those who think the same thing is true about China. | But the perception of the U.S. in that regard has dropped significantly over the past five years—by 25 percentage points or more in France, Spain, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Canada and South Korea. As China’s ratings on this question remained stable or climbed slightly, that means the perceived “freedom gap” between the two countries has narrowed. | Of course, geopolitics isn’t a popularity contest. But soft power matters, as does America’s perceived commitment to its values, at home and abroad. And while Trump is not uniquely responsible for America’s tarnished reputation these days, he has made a big contribution to it. |
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