Brazil widens lead in China’s soybean market as US shipments fall despite Trump-Xi deal
China’s Brazilian soybean imports up 13.7 per cent in June compared to a year earlier; US figures fell 20.6 per cent over the same period
SCMP
Total arrivals of the oilseed reached 13.55 million tonnes, a record for the month, lifted by Brazilian supply and by the clearing of cargoes that had been delayed at Chinese ports.
The half-year figures set the June result in a longer decline. Imports from the US fell 42.4 per cent between January and June, to 9.31 million tonnes, against a Chinese pledge to take at least 25 million tonnes a year through 2028. Brazilian volumes over the same period rose 9.1 per cent, to 34.75 million tonnes.
The commitment is annual, and June shipments reflect purchases made weeks or months earlier, which leaves room for buying to be concentrated later in the year.
Record trade with China as the US market closes
What arrived at Chinese ports in June reflects a broader shift in where Brazil sells, and that shift is being reinforced from Washington.
Its calculations rest on trade ministry figures compiled from the Comex Stat database between July 3 and July 10. Over the same six months, sales to the United States fell 13 per cent, to US$17.4 billion, leaving Brazil with a surplus of US$19.8 billion with China, equivalent to 47 per cent of its total trade surplus.
The measure closes a Section 301 investigation into practices that included illegal deforestation, access to the ethanol market and disagreements over Pix, a free payment system created by Brazil’s Central Bank and widely used nationwide.
Coffee, beef, orange juice, oil and gas and aerospace components were left out of the measure, which concentrates the burden on manufacturers.
China was one of the central parties in the negotiations that preceded the tariff. According to Brazil’s Development, Industry and Trade minister Marcio Elias Rosa, US officials raised critical minerals during the talks and argued that exploration should be denied to entities that do not operate on market terms, in a reference to Beijing.
Washington also asked for zero tariffs on industrial goods, machinery, chemicals, aerospace and automotive products, as well as ethanol, and for Brazil not to regulate digital platforms.
Soybean revenue rises, but not volume
The soybean trade that anchors the relationship with China is growing in revenue while tonnage remains flat, limiting how much more it can carry.
Iron ore volumes followed the same direction, reaching 135 million tonnes, a record for the first half, worth US$9.2 billion. Beef exports rose 50 per cent to US$4.8 billion as shippers filled a 1.1 million-tonne quota before a 55 per cent surcharge applies to anything above it, and that quota was nearly exhausted in June.