Comments on "A deal too far?"
We thank Alastair Newton for this comment on today’s newsletter:
Just before the Newsletter was circulated, I posted on the Arab Digest Facebook page the text of a note I had circulated to my clients along similar lines to this assessment to which I would add the following:
1. It is very likely that the US was looking to head off offers from both Beijing and Moscow to support Saudi Arabia's longstanding nuclear aspirations. Through his volte-face yesterday Donald Trump has made it, if anything, more likely that MbS will turn to one or other (or both) of these decidedly more dependable potential partners;
2. Although the Israelis will certainly be relieved that the deal now looks unlikely to go through, they too will certainly have been shaken by Mr Trump's seeming willingness to go ahead without a Saudi/Israel Abraham Accord (and I simply do not believe that, as an unnamed White House official has claimed, the President was blindsided as Energy Secretary Chris Walsh "got ahead of his skis" even though the latter has a lengthy record of going off-piste);
3. As for the Iranians, smiles all round in Tehran, I am sure, especially among the hardliners who will seize upon the US's clear willingness to abandon 'gold standard' non-proliferation conditions to argue even more strongly that any deal with the US must protect Iran's own nuclear programme.
In short, the bottom line is that the only parties which will be happy with the way in which this has all unfolded (so far!) are China, Russia and Iran.
And we thank James Spencer for this comment:
The Abraham Accords seem to be an obsession of Trump's, or whoever is whispering in his ear: At the end of May, when the 14 Point MOU was being signed, "Trump links Abraham Accords to any Iran deal". The Arab states ignored it then, and KSA will probably ignore this demand now.
While "Saudi crown prince said he personally 'doesn't care' about the Palestinian issue", it is an issue which resonates with the Arab Street (who see a rather less sanitised version of the carnage than Western media portray.) Domestically, Vision 2030 seems to be running into some stiff headwinds, and there is the possibility of the expensive Yemen campaign re-igniting, so making such an unpopular move at a time like this would be unwise, even for an autocratic ruler.
To submit to Trump's naked blackmail would be embarrassing no matter the subject (let alone the Palestinian-Israeli conflict), even at a good time. MbS has other options (Russia, China - even Europe!), and would probably gain kudos domestically and regionally if he stood up to Trump, who is also famous for always chickening out.
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A deal too far?
Summary: the announcement of a nuclear deal between the US and Saudi Arabia has raised concerns about an arms race in a region riven with war but Donald Trump’s demand that the Saudis join the Abraham Accords has thrown into question whether the deal can go ahead.
Wednesday’s announcement that the US and Saudi Arabia have signed a nuclear cooperation deal has raised concerns that it could trigger a nuclear arms race in the Gulf. As ever with Donald Trump’s deals detail is in short supply. The US Department of State released a statement noting that the agreement will:
Expand American nuclear technology exports
Create high-paying U.S. jobs and long-term economic growth
Strengthen America's energy and national security posture
Reinforce global nonproliferation standards
Deepen the strategic partnership between the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
It is worth noting that the reference to non proliferation comes fourth in a list that sets out the benefits that are intended to accrue to the US. Non proliferation is dealt with under the US Atomic Energy Act Section 123 which details the curbs that any country that enters an agreement on nuclear matters with the US must abide by as set out in nine non proliferation criteria. The 123 though it stops countries from enriching or reprocessing material acquired from the US does not prevent those countries from enrichment of nuclear material acquired elsewhere.
What Trump’s deal ignored was the so-called ‘Gold Standard’ which was part of the deal that the US signed with the United Arab Emirates in 2009. It saw the UAE voluntarily renouncing the pursuit of enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) technologies and capabilities. Additionally and equally important the UAE agreed to ratify the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Model Additional Protocol which among other things significantly strengthens the IAEA’s inspection powers. The protocol was included in the 2015 Barack Obama negotiated JCPOA with Iran that Trump walked away from in 2018.
Trump’s deal represents a break from precedent. As noted by the Arms Control Association: “The United States has not in recent years negotiated a 123 agreement with a state that had not signed an additional protocol.”
Trump’s demand that Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in exchange for nuclear tech puts MbS in a tight spot over Riyadh's stance on Palestine.After the deal was signed Trump announced via his Truth Social platform that the agreement would only go ahead if Saudi Arabia agreed to join the Abraham Accords:
The Civil Nuclear Deal (There will be no enrichment of material!) being made between the United States Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia, which pertains only to non-military use such as the ones that Iran and UAE (and others) already have, will be approved, but is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords.
Setting aside that the president seems to have forgotten that he killed the JCPOA and that he is apparently ignorant of the Gold Standard that the UAE agreed to, the claim that this deal is no different from the ones the US made with Iran and the UAE is demonstrably false.
And what of the Saudis who have stipulated that they will not even consider joining the Abraham Accords unless and until there is a fair resolution to the issue of Palestine? Trump’s transactional bullying may have worked in the US real estate market (though there is much evidence to suggest it did not) but on the world stage and with a volatile region that he has made ever more dangerous and violent such tactics are only likely to further exacerbate tensions.
Already as we have noted in recent podcasts the Gulf states and other Arab countries are casting about for allies more reliable and less likely to plunge the region into all out war than Donald Trump’s America.
And one wonders how the UAE ruler Mohammed bin Zayed is feeling after Wednesday’s announcement. Relations between him and Saudi Arabia’s Mohamed bin Salman have been tense on a number of fronts as they jockey for regional ascendancy. There will be unease in Abu Dhabi that the Saudis appear to have gotten a deal with far less restraints placed upon it than the one the UAE signed in 2009. The Emiratis may push to have the same deal as the Saudis thus increasing the risk of proliferation and that from a state with an assertive and aggressive foreign policy and the moniker of 'Little Sparta.'
Equally though the Saudi crown prince will be affronted by Trump’s near instant decision to use the nuclear deal to force him into joining the Abraham Accords. He has, after all, been very publicly put in the most awkward of situations. To join the accords to acquire the nuclear deal means abandoning the Palestinians. Arabs and Muslims everywhere would see such a step as a betrayal from MbS who strives to project himself as the leader of both camps.
Given the demand he has put on the crown prince whether the deal sees the light of day remains something of an uncertainty but what is not uncertain is that Donald Trump’s slender grasp of the complexities of a region he is attempting to reshape is driving it into deeper and ever more dangerous turmoil.
For more on the situation we urge you to listen to our most recent podcasts from Giorgio Cafiero the CEO of Gulf State Analytics based in Washington DC and from London the Gulf defence and security analyst Andreas Krieg:
Giorgio Cafiero “The GCC, Iran and Trump’s busted flush”
Andreas Krieg “No war, no peace”
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