Rumors the US Makes Last-Minute Peace Offer to Iran
I treat all rumors as suspect. However, the Saudi concern over war escalation is believable.
Saudi Concern
Saudi Crown Prince spoke to President Trump on Saturday and expressed concern over his plans for massive new strikes against Iran.
Axios reports Saudi Crown Prince raises concerns over Trump’s plans for massive Iran strikes.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke to President Trump on Saturday and expressed concern over his plans for massive new strikes against Iran, according to two U.S. officials and a third source with knowledge of the call.
Why it matters: Trump is seriously considering attacking Iranian energy targets in the coming days in response to Iran’s missile strike on a U.S. base in Jordan and its continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. He has yet to issue final orders.
The big picture: Such an attack could lead to an unprecedented escalation in the five-month war, which has repeatedly paused as Trump opened the door to negotiations — only to resume when those diplomatic efforts failed.
Zoom in: Iran has threatened to retaliate by launching attacks against energy and infrastructure facilities in Israel and the Gulf countries.
- “The Saudis expressed concern and asked for clarity about the plan of action,” one U.S. official told Axios.
- A second source with knowledge of the call said MBS urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes.
- The White House and the Saudi embassy in Washington declined to comment.
What to watch: Qatari mediators held separate talks Saturday with Araghchi, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Omani officials in an effort to secure an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- The talks made progress, a source with knowledge of the discussions said, though it remains unclear whether that will be enough to defuse the crisis.
A Peace Proposal
I am skeptical of rumors of a deal.
A Believable Threat
The Wall Street Journal reports Iran Stokes the Middle East War With Drone Attacks on Kuwait
Iran fired a drone barrage into Kuwait on Saturday, hitting a U.S. ally following President Trump’s vow to intensify military strikes in a rapidly expanding Middle East war.
Kuwait said it shot down the Iranian volley, but the renewed fire added more tension to a region bracing for more conflict. Trump ordered the military to launch a fresh attack on Iran to bring Tehran to the negotiating table, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz—once the passageway for 20% of the world’s crude oil—effectively closed. One ship near the strait was damaged after being struck by a projectile on Friday and another in a separate incident reported a nearby explosion, according to U.K. Maritime Trade Operations group, a security group affiliated with the British Navy.
Iranian and American leaders are both escalating their war rhetoric. Trump said Friday during a televised cabinet meeting that the U.S. “will be hitting them very hard.”
“At some point, they’re going to say, ‘We just can’t take it anymore,’” Trump said.
Ali Abdollahi, a senior Iranian military commander, said that the U.S. is accelerating a wider regional war and that Iran considers countries in the region cooperating with the U.S. as complicit.
“Any country that chooses to serve as a defensive shield for the criminal and aggressive United States will be consumed by the flames of war,” Abdollahi said, according to Iranian state media.
Trump has gone back and forth on the U.S. relying on military might or diplomacy with Iran. Earlier this week he said, “very friendly negotiations” were under way, before accusing Iranian diplomats of being dishonorable.
“They always want to talk, but they break their words so often,” Trump said, later adding, “All they do is make me angry.”
The frustration is mutual. Iranian diplomats have expressed exhaustion over the repeated breakdowns in negotiations with the U.S. From their perspective, officials say, there is a lack of trust between the two countries and the prospects for diplomacy deteriorate every time Trump threatens military force.
Stay Tuned
Supposedly that threat is off for now.
At Least 67 Ships Have Been Attacked or Boarded
Also consider Tankers Are Being Blown Out of the Water. See How Mideast Strikes Are Piling Up.
At least 17 seafarers have been killed and dozens more injured in the regional maritime attacks.
The attacks on commercial ships have been among the most devastating during wartime in a generation. Most of the attacks have originated from Iran, but the U.S. has launched attacks on and boarded more than a dozen ships that violated the Trump administration’s naval blockade.
I truly don’t understand tankers taking the Omam Route.
Pay Iran the toll and you wont get hit.
Trump would block oil from Iran, but would he block a Chinese or Japanese ship carrying oil from Saudi Arabia?
Warning from Iran
Even if the US made an offer to Iran, I have serious doubts it would be one Iran would accept.
Deal aside, I would not at all be surprised by another weekend Trump TACO.