[Salon] If the U.S. and Israel hit Iranian power plants and refineries, Iran will hit similar targets across the region




Iran has made its doctrine very clear during this war. If the U.S. and Israel hit Iranian power plants and refineries, Iran will hit similar targets across the region. That will be devastating for regional economies and will create major new disruptions for the global economy. The White House and CENTCOM know this—it would be genuinely insane to escalate the war in this manner.

Consequently, if the U.S. proceeds with these strikes over the weekend, it will be because they expect they can hit Iran without triggering a commensurate response. The only way that happens is if they make clear to the Iranians that this will be the last strike of the war. Trump might need to repeat Midnight Hammer—one big operation that allows him to bring the war to an end while declaring himself the victor.

If that's what it takes for Trump to walk away from the conflict, Iran might be willing to absorb a limited strike on some carefully chosen energy sector targets before undertaking a proportional response. We then get Trump declaring he is done and diplomacy resumes, with the U.S. fully subcontracting the negotiations to regional countries, who will set the agenda with Iran.

It's time for Trump to cut his losses and walk away.


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