El-Sayed's Small Victory Spells Big Trouble for Israel
The Michigan Senate primary was closer than polls had predicted, but Abdul El-Sayed's victory shouldn't be dismissed. In some ways, it is more consequential for Israel and U.S. Jews than Mamdani's rise in NYC
Eli W. Kowaz • August 05 2026
Abdul El-Sayed walks off stage after an election night event at the Majestic Theatre in Detroit. Credit: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/אי־פי
Abdul El-Sayed barely defeated Rep. Haley Stevens on Tuesday to become Michigan's Democratic Senate candidate. His surprisingly narrow win indicates he could have a hard time in the general election. But in a year most pundits expect to be favorable to Democrats, a win by El-Sayed against Republican candidate Mike Rogers shouldn't be ruled out.
The Israeli media has jumped to label El-Sayed as "Michigan's Mamdani." Superficially, it fits: a young and charismatic Muslim politician who became a national figure by criticizing Israel and AIPAC. But there's a major difference between the two that must be understood. Mamdani is a mayor, a position lacking foreign-policy power, as he himself recently conceded when discussing the idea of arresting Prime Minister Netanyahu in New York. El-Sayed, however, could become a U.S. Senator, a much more powerful role when it comes to foreign affairs.
The Senate confirms nominees for key foreign policy positions, from the Secretary of State to ambassadors around the world. It also votes on weapons transfers to different countries, ratifies treaties and can pass legislation that affects America's relations with other countries. When thinking of how a politician can influence the U.S.-Israel relationship, there is no comparison between a mayor, even of the largest city in the country, and a Senator.
Unlike Mamdani, El-Sayed was born in the U.S., which makes him eligible to run for president. If he gets elected to the Senate, a future presidential run would immediately become the subject of political chatter. He has already hinted at the idea during the primary campaign, though his unimpressive result against Stevens could pour cold water on it, for the time being.
In March, after an antisemitic terror attack targeted a synagogue in the suburbs of Detroit, El-Sayed lent legitimacy to the attacker's motives, saying that "hurt people hurt people." Earlier, leaked audio revealed El-Sayed had told his staff that releasing a statement on the incident would be risky. While El-Sayed condemned the attack in a press release, the fact that this was a matter of internal deliberation is problematic, to say the least.
Asked by CNN in July whether one could be both a Zionist and a progressive, El-Sayed answered that "every definition of a Jewish state ends up in some articulation of illiberal values, every single one." The Democratic nominee speaks of a "big tent" and welcoming former Trump voters, but not liberal Jews who believe in a Jewish homeland.
Michigan's Democratic leadership, including Governor Gretchen Whitmer and outgoing Senator Gary Peters, backed Stevens. Her campaign argued that El-Sayed won't be able to win over moderates in the general election. We will have to wait another three months to find out whether they were right, but the same polls that overestimated El-Sayed in the primary also showed that many Stevens voters might not support him against Rogers.
AIPAC's decision to invest tens of millions of dollars against El-Sayed was a serious own goal. It helped him present himself as an underdog fighting back against massive outside spending, with the powerful lobby group on one side and the voters on the other. This was his closing argument, and at a time when most Americans have a negative view of Israel, it helped him secure victory.
It's important to remember that those defending Israel inside the Democratic Party are standing up for the Jewish state's legitimacy, not for its current government, which cannot and should not be defended. Yet this complex intellectual distinction crashes against the images emerging from Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon.
American friends of Israel are running out of arguments, and are counting the days until Israel's election in late October. Replacing the awful Netanyahu government is the best way to stop the drift toward candidates like El-Sayed, and regain some of the support Israel has lost in American politics.
Eli Kowaz is a writer and analyst covering Israeli politics, American Jewry, and U.S.-Israel relations. He writes The Middle Ground on Substack and was previously communications director at Israel Policy Forum.