January 28 2026: The U.S. sent a carrier force to threaten Iran. It made a number of extensive demands.
Trump Threatens Iran With ‘Massive Armada’ and Presses a Set of Demands (archived) – NY Times
Mr. Trump’s threat of a second direct attack on Iran by U.S. forces in eight months came as the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, along with other naval ships, bombers and fighter jets, took up positions in the region in striking distance of the country.
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Mr. Trump gave no specifics about the deal he was demanding, saying only that a “massive Armada” was heading toward Iran and that the country should make a deal. But U.S. and European officials say that in talks, they have put three demands in front of the Iranians:
– a permanent end to all enrichment of uranium and disposal of its current stockpiles,
– limits on the range and number of their ballistic missiles, and
– an end to all support for proxy groups in the Middle East, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis operating in Yemen.
August 15 2026: Due to Iranian counter measures the carrier mission largely failed It is leaving the Middle East.
Navy Carrier’s Problems Are Tied to Attacks on U.S. Base Early in War (archived) – NY Times
The aircraft carrier U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln’s supply problems began soon after the first day of the war, as Iranian missiles and attack drones fell on a Navy base in Bahrain.
The Iranian attack, retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli assault on Tehran, destroyed much of the base. And as it went up in smoke, so did a major logistics hub that the Navy has relied on for decades.
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The loss of the hub in Bahrain has contributed to a host of reported problems on carriers supporting operations against Iran, as Democratic senators raise concerns about the Lincoln’s 5,000 sailors and their nearly nine-month deployment.
The carrier will be replaced by a different one. But the U.S. has only ten of these and to keep one ship on station requires two additional ones for refit and training. Six of the ten carriers will thus be bound near the Strait which leaves just one ready to take care of the rest of the world.
They are doing high-fives in Beijing.
The demands towards Iran are gone. The first concern for Trump is now political survival.
Vance says low oil prices now ‘goal number one’ in Iran war as US threatens new economic pressure – NBC News via MSN
Keeping gas prices low is now the United States’ “goal number one” in the Iran war, Vice President JD Vance has said, as Washington threatened an indefinite naval blockade and signaled it would soon intensify economic pressure on Tehran.
The comments appeared to be the latest shift in the public rationale for the conflict, with Vance ranking Iran’s nuclear ambitions second.
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The international oil benchmark of Brent Crude sits just above $87 dollars a barrel, 45% higher than it was in January. The average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. is now higher than $4; before the conflict it was lower than $3.
I continue to marvel at the size of the U.S. defeat.
The long term consequence is that others will learn from Iran.