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Unwinnable by Design: the End of American Military Dominance
In conversation with Lt Col (Ret'd) Daniel L Davis
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Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis of the popular Deep Dive podcast delivered a clear-eyed assessment of why the United States can no longer deliver decisive victories beyond its own hemisphere. The most expensive military on the planet, he argued, is not the most powerful—and recent events in Iran and Ukraine prove it.
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Davis pushed back immediately on the idea of American supremacy. The U.S. can dominate its near abroad—Venezuela, Cuba, even speculative talk of Greenland—because no regional peer exists to contest it. Beyond that, the picture collapses.
In the Middle East, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific, “we are definitely in the backseat.”
The notion of winning a decisive victory anywhere outside the Western Hemisphere “is gone.”
Iran is the clearest demonstration. Despite months of buildup and a massive armada, the stated goal of preventing a nuclear weapon was always a ruse. As Trump, his Secretary of War, and others repeatedly claimed, the nuclear program had already been destroyed in Operation Midnight Hammer. The real objective was regime change.
Assassinating the Supreme Leader and senior commanders failed.
A ground invasion was never feasible: Iran is three to four times the size of Iraq, protected by vast mountain ranges that would turn any advance into suicide.
An air-only campaign was equally futile. Iran spent two decades burying missile cities under granite mountains, rendering them impervious to conventional—and even nuclear—weapons.
The result?
The Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, U.S. assets are being wasted, and the lesson remains unlearned.
The same pattern plays out in Ukraine.
Western air defenses are effectively nonexistent. Russia’s military-industrial complex has surged—producing hypersonics, jet-powered drones, and volume that the West cannot match.
Ukrainian stocks are exhausted; American and European inventories have shrunk to “minuscule levels.”
Russia is stronger than in 2022.
The United States is weaker.
“There is nothing the United States can do to win a war… against a quality opponent” in the Middle East, against Russia, or against China.
This is not merely a tactical problem. The $1.5 trillion defense budget is pouring money into proven failures—another $22.9 billion for Tomahawk missiles, thousands more vulnerable PAC-3 and THAAD interceptors—while ignoring the industrial reality.
Russia and China plan in five- to twenty-year horizons. America tinkers for short-term contractor profits.
Without a fundamental rethink, the U.S. risks not just stalemate but outright military defeat and eventual bankruptcy, forcing the abandonment of hundreds of overseas bases.
Public opinion has already offered its verdict. The Iran conflict is the most unpopular American war since polling began—worse than Vietnam or Iraq at comparable stages.
MAGA voters are peeling away as diesel tops five dollars a gallon and fertilizer costs soar.
Trump’s claim that the price is “worth paying” lands on deaf ears. The midterms, Davis predicts, will be a Republican bloodbath. The rational exit—declare victory, “put lipstick on a pig,” and leave—remains available, yet unused.
Twenty-first-century warfare has moved far beyond Desert Storm or World War II. Electronic warfare, rapid drone iteration, and sustained industrial output now decide outcomes more than traditional formations.
The United States lacks the organizations, mentality, and capacity to compete.
Expeditionary warfare itself should be retired. Short, punitive operations once worked—if America had left after achieving limited aims. Instead, as Davis recalled with a Hotel California lyric, “You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.”
The conversation ends on a sober note: power has limits. Recognizing them is not weakness. It is the only path that avoids sowing the seeds of America’s own defeat.
You can watch the full video here:
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