Trade Deals Are Picking Up Globally, Just Not with Trump
Trump fosters new deals for India and Canada, not the US.
Modi Is Hedging Against Trump, One Deal at a Time
The New York Times reports Modi Is Hedging Against Trump, One Deal at a Time
France. New Zealand. The Seychelles. Malaysia. Slovakia. Italy.
In the past year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India has zigzagged around the world at a breathless pace, pursuing new partners or bolstering ties with existing ones, jolted into action by a grim reality: India’s only way to combat the global turbulence unleashed by President Trump and fortify its economy is to spread its bets widely.
Since August 2025, Mr. Modi has paid official visits to at least 20 countries, and is set to visit more in the coming days, including a trip to Uzbekistan that starts on Saturday. Many of these meetings have been businesslike, resembling the urgent, closed-door discussions of Wall Street bankers negotiating deals.
After Uzbekistan, Mr. Modi will visit Kyrgyzstan for the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a 10-member regional security group, where he is expected to sit down with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.
Among the economic benefits for India that Mr. Modi has scored in his meetings are submarine technology from Germany, student visas from France, and cheaper Scotch whisky — arguably India’s most popular alcoholic beverage — from the United Kingdom.
Who Is Modi Doing Deals With?
- India and France have developed an especially close partnership, centered on artificial intelligence and governance, and on doubling bilateral trade within the next five years.
- Mr. Modi and Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, reaffirmed Norway’s commitment to creating one million jobs in India under an agreement India signed in October with the European Free Trade Association.
- President Lee Jae Myung of South Korea promised investment in India and shipbuilding assistance. India aims to become one of the world’s top five shipbuilders by 2047.
- Mr. Modi became the first Indian prime minister to visit New Zealand in four decades. The meeting focused on maritime security, building on a defense cooperation agreement signed last year, and doubling bilateral trade.
- India signed a major free trade agreement with the European Union, the world’s largest economic bloc, in January. Roughly two decades of trade negotiations had been sped up by the newly upended world order.
- The E.U. deal — which Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, labeled the “mother of all deals” — marked a move away from India’s longstanding policy of protectionism. As part of the agreement, India agreed to make concessions, including slashing tariffs on European cars and wine, among other products.
- India struck a deal with the United Kingdom, where the latter reduced tariffs on garments, and the former slashed duties on alcohol.
Meanwhile In Canada
Canada has rapidly expanded its global trade network in 2026 to diversify its economy away from the United States following a breakdown in bilateral negotiations and an escalating cross-border trade war.
Under Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Canadian government has pivoted sharply toward alternative international markets, securing or advancing major deals across Asia, South America, and Europe.
Trade talks between the US and Canada broke down and it will be a struggle to get them going again.
Canada – United Arab Emirates (UAE)
- Status: Negotiations successfully concluded on July 24, 2026.
- Agreement: The Canada-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) marks the fastest trade negotiation in Canadian history, wrapping up in just 47 days.
- Key Benefits: It will dramatically lower or remove tariffs across aerospace, engineering, clean tech, and agri-food industries. Alongside the trade pact, a Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement officially took effect on May 19, 2026, which unlocked a $70 billion investment commitment from the UAE into Canadian infrastructure, ports, mines, and LNG projects
Canada – Indonesia
- Status: Implementation framework finalized with domestic legislation passing into law.
- Agreement: The Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (ICA-CEPA) received Royal Assent on May 6, 2026 (via Bill C-18), cementing the legal framework ahead of its official 2026 enforcement date.
- Key Benefits: Canada’s first-ever free trade agreement with an ASEAN country will eliminate or reduce tariffs on over 95% of current Canadian exports. This significantly boosts the global competitiveness of Canadian agriculture (wheat, soybeans), potash, wood, and clean technology in a market of over 300 million consumers.
Canada – China
- Status: Strategic electric vehicle and agricultural access deal announced in January 2026.
- Agreement: Prime Minister Carney brokered a targeted partnership with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a high-profile visit to Beijing.
- Key Benefits: Under the agreement, Canada agreed to admit 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a reduced tariff rate. In return, China granted Canada significantly improved market access for its canola and agricultural exports, aiding Canada’s long-term goal of increasing its total exports to China by 50% by 2030.
Canada – Ecuador
- Status: Signed in July 2026.
- Agreement: Following a year of intense text iterations launched in 2024, Canada formalized a comprehensive bilateral free trade agreement with Ecuador.
- Key Benefits: This agreement enhances commercial pathways into South America, heavily lowering tariff thresholds for Canadian industrial machinery, manufacturing exports, and financial service entities
Canada Ongoing and Upcoming Trade Negotiations
- The Philippines & Thailand: Deepening market access across Southeast Asia to integrate supply chains.
- Turkey: Free trade text negotiations remain ongoing.
- Japan & Australia: Strategic partnerships signed earlier in the year are laying the groundwork for binding critical mineral alliances and defense procurement integrations.
- India: Aims to reach $70 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, with a CEPA targeted for late 2026.
Voluntary vs Involuntary Deals
That’s a lot of deals Trump is responsible for, just not with the US.
The only deals Trump can get for the US are through coercion and force, generally detrimental to all sides.
And most of those deals are imaginary.
No country wants to make one-sided deals with the US that Trump is unlikely to honor anyway.
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