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Donald Trump’s description of the Iran war as “small potatoes” constitutes an effort to pacify US public opposition to the war in the hope that increased economic and calibrated military pressure will force the Islamic Republic to succumb. James argues on TRT World that Iran is unlikely to play ball. Like Mr. Trump, Iran does not want a return to all-out war. But unlike, Iran has no interest in a pro-longed period of no peace no war. The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Transcript [Host John-Paul Davies] Now to our top story in particular the US-Iran war and Donald Trump’s words used to describe that war in recent days. Let’s get more on this by speaking to adjunct senior fellow James M. Dorsey from Rajaratnam School of International Studies joins us live from Singapore. A very warm welcome to you James. Look, Donald Trump has described the war this week as small potatoes. He also said in the week that he he couldn’t care less if Iran signed an agreement. He’s also historically described it as a little skirmish, a little detour. Is this minimisation do you think a strategy? [James M. Dorsey] Well what Trump is trying to achieve is two things. One is obviously downplay the war in advance of the midterm elections given that the war is extremely unpopular with the American public but also he’s preparing for a prolonged period of no war no peace. In other words he wants to give time for the economic sanctions to have effect while maintaining the military pressure on Iran. The problem with that is that Iran may not play ball. While Iran like the United States doesn’t necessarily want to see a return to an all-out fight, the low war no peace situation is not one that is sustainable for Iran. [Host John-Paul Davies] I just want to dig into those words a little bit more James. I’ll come back to the point you just made there but seeing that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer wrote on X about this small potatoes remark. Tell that to the families of the 18 troops that we’ve lost and the Americans suffering from from record high prices and you’ve alluded to it in your first answer there. Midterm elections eight weeks on Tuesday. Behind all the bluster and all the talk does it reflect you think that Donald Trump is actually under a whole deal of pressure right now quite apart from the midterm elections? [James M. Dorsey] I think first of all to be fair to Trump 18 losses are 18 losses in every life counts but it is a small number compared to other American wars that America has waged. I think more importantly the question in my mind is to what degree Trump really cares about the midterm elections? Of course he cares. But on the other side he has repeatedly said that Americans needed to pay a price at the gas pump for a greater good which is a non-nuclear Iran and Iran that has no nuclear weapons. And he is also to some degree drawn a distinction between himself as not being on the ballot and his party the Republican Party. So the question is to what degree he really feels that pressure? No doubt he does to some degree but maybe not to the degree that a lot of people assume. [Host John-Paul Davies] Yeah that’s interesting because you mentioned the 18 people who’ve died this last week and just in terms of the approach the US are taking to this war right now James you’ve got that you’ve also got US sanctions being broadened. Trump has also mentioned the Iranian nuclear facility and the possibility of attacking Pickaxe Mountain. So behind this talk of minimisation do you actually expect what is dual escalation, that’s what we’re seeing, to continue? Will that be the actual action that we’re seeing? [James M. Dorsey] I think what we’re seeing is an attempt both by Trump and Iran to calibrate escalation. The problem with that is that it easily spins out of control and ultimately is unsustainable. There’s speculation that the Iranians are preparing for what is an October surprise, with other words something big just in advance of an American election. We’ve seen that throughout the history of the Islamic Republic occur going back to 1979-1980 when the US hostages were released on the day that President Ronald Reagan took office because Iran did not want to give that to then President Jimmy Carter. Whether that is the Iranian strategy or not remains to be seen but the fact of the matter is that from an Iranian perspective this is not a sustainable situation and therefore I think we are going to see escalation and ultimately the risk of that returning to an all-out conflagration. [Host John-Paul Davies] James do you think so because we we’ve talked about this quite a bit over obviously the weeks of this war and there’s a view that actually this war of attrition really suits Iran that they’re in no rush to get out or do whatever you know what or exit in whatever way that’s possible and actually this war of attrition is something that sits okay with them? [James M. Dorsey] Being in no position or being under pressure on the one hand and wanting to sustain or not sustain a no peace no war situation are two different things. Iran is under pressure there’s no question the sanctions are hitting hard the question there is not so much what degree of pressure that puts on Iran but what degree of ability to absorb pain Iran has and Iran has demonstrated over 47 years that it has an incredible capability of absorbing pain so from Iran’s perspective maintaining this status quo with other words allowing the pressure to build is not something that is in Iran’s interest. [Host John-Paul Davies] Yeah James one other thing that is noticeable is what’s happening with South Korea. they are considering deploying troops to the Strait of Hormuz their economy is under intense pressure but are we hearing this now because as with some other European and Asian powers the US are actually applying huge geopolitical pressure on them to get involved and to help out a bit? [James M. Dorsey] I think there’s no doubt about it you could argue that Trump has had two successes this week You saw on Monday the European Union issue a statement in support of operation economic outcast in other words in support of the strengthened economic boycott and blockade of Iran the question is how Iran how Europe is going to implement that support and on the other hand you see the debate in South Korea on whether or not to contribute some in some form militarily to the security and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz those are diplomatic successes and in some ways Trump is probably going to see that as the effectiveness of his strategy of bullying and coercing others [Host John-Paul Davies] James, really grateful for your time and your insight thank you for being on TRT World. [James M. Dorsey] John-Paul always a pleasure. Thank you. You're currently a free subscriber to The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. |