Andrei Martyanov joined me for a blunt conversation after the BRICS summit: why Moscow says trust with Europe is finished, why the turn east is already a fact, and why he sees no recovery for Germany or NATO as currently constituted. Andrei is sceptical about the prospects for a normalisation of relations with Europe after the Ukraine war ends.
He quotes Sergei Lavrov — “there will never be trust again” — and argues that Russian society now views Europe with contempt, not envy. Some business may resume after the war ends at world prices. But privileged relations will not.
In this discussion we cover:
• War tourism in Ukraine, the Boris Johnson train episode, and Western virtue-signalling
• Why Andrei says Europe’s elites are driven by fear, Russophobia and ideology — not strategy
• AfD, Merz and the illusion that a “normal” German policy toward Russia is coming
• Germany’s energy shock, collapsing industry, and why he thinks the damage is beyond repair
• BRICS as an economic bloc: BRICS Pay, Iran, SCO, and a communiqué that barely mentioned Ukraine
• Bessent, Siluanov and why Moscow assumes the West will cheat anyway
• Europe’s lack of military capability, nuclear reality, and the idea that elites cannot hide in bunkers
• Lavrov’s verdict: no trust, no privileged partnership, Russia’s turn to the east is permanent
• India, energy density, and why he says civilization is energy
• Russia’s mixed economy, Rostec and why Western MBA forecasts keep failing
• How he thinks the war ends militarily — Sloviansk–Kramatorsk, then open ground — and why NATO, not Ukraine, is the strategic issue
You can watch the full conversation here:
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