| Houthi forces patrol Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, this month. Mohammed Huwais/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images |
Geography is power
Vivian Nereim, our lead reporter in the Gulf states, said something the other day that stuck with me. A colleague had asked her a question about the Houthi militia in Yemen, which recently conquered the Bab al-Mandab, a strait that connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. It’s become an important artery for Saudi Arabia’s oil exports since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
| Sources: Global Energy Monitor (pipelines); Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute (Houthi-controlled areas). The New York Times |
Her answer: “Geography can be power, even for the most seemingly unlikely group.” Just as Iran’s proximity to the Strait of Hormuz allowed its forces to disrupt traffic there, debilitating the energy economy, the Houthis’ strikes along the Red Sea coast have given them command of a waterway that may play an even bigger role in global shipping. A lot more than oil passes through it on the way to the Indian Ocean. “A few guys with a few drones can pose a big threat,” Vivian said. (She meant the Houthis, but it’s true of the Iranians, too.)
Back in February, when the United States and Israel went to war with Iran, most of us didn’t know much about this stateless militia in Yemen backed by Iran, let alone the straits on either side of the Arabian Peninsula. Now Iran and its Houthi allies control the two main routes for shipping oil out of the Middle East.
| Sources: Kpler (ship position data); Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute (Houthi stronghold); Global Energy Monitor (pipeline routes). The New York Times |
Who are these guys?
Just as a reminder, here’s the nickel tour: The Houthis started out in the 1990s as a religious movement in northern Yemen that became a motley group of Islamist fighters waging civil war against the government in the 2010s. They believe their power emanates from God. They declare death to America and Israel and “a curse upon the Jews.” Supplied by Iran, they battled a Saudi-led coalition until the United Nations brokered a fragile peace in Yemen in 2022. The following year, they started attacking shipping in the Red Sea.
Nicholas Kulish, who writes about technology and war, yesterday took note of the conventional image of them: “Men on the backs of pickup trucks, firing AK-47s into the desert air.”
But, Nicholas reports, they’re growing more sophisticated. A report from Anthropic last week suggested that people in northern Yemen — that’s a Houthi stronghold — had used the company’s A.I. assistant to “develop guided weapons,” specifically a multistage ballistic missile with a range of 1,200 miles. “The would-be weapons designers were careful to avoid the company’s safeguards,” Nicholas wrote, “hiding the true purpose of the guidance systems they were designing from the very system helping them design it.” That’s a long way from guys in sandals carrying long guns in the bed of a Toyota Hilux.
| Houthi fighters. Mohammed Huwais/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images |
What do they want?
Vivian answered that question, too. “The Houthis describe themselves as the liberators and legitimate leaders of Yemen,” she told my colleague Katrin Bennhold. That pits them against Yemen’s Saudi-backed government. “They also want money, like access to Yemeni oil revenue and war reparations from Saudi Arabia, among other things. And they’re picking this moment to make a big push,” Vivian said.
How far that push is going to take them, and how effective their entrepreneurial battlefield tactics are going to be, remains an open question. The Houthi rebels have proved adept at battling far wealthier and more powerful actors — and forcing them to stand down.
Keep an eye on the Houthis, then. A former U.S. special envoy for Yemen was blunt about them last week. “They use every opportunity to build their capability, to test their capability, such that they are now the most lethal nonstate actor in the entire Middle East,” he said.
Related: The Houthis said they shot down a Saudi fighter jet but denied targeting Mecca.