Good News, 75 Percent Says Tariffs Important in Midterm Vote
Well, that’s good news for Democrats, not Republicans.
Tariffs Backfiring on Trump
I am pleased to report that ridiculus tariffs are backfiring on Trump.
A Cato Institute/Morning Consult poll shows 75% of Americans Say Tariffs Will Be Important to Their Vote in the Midterms
74% Say President Trump’s Tariffs Have Raised Prices; 53% Say Tariffs Have Weakened the Economy, 70% Say the President Needs Congressional Approval to Impose Tariffs
A new Cato Institute/Morning Consult survey of 4,150 registered voters finds that three in four (75%) say tariffs will be important to their vote in this November’s midterm elections.
Nearly the same share—74%—say that Trump’s tariffs increased the prices of things they buy at the store, including 66% of Republicans and 84% of Democrats. Majorities say the tariffs are a tax on Americans (57%) and believe they have weakened the US economy (53%), while just 23% say the tariffs have improved their personal quality of life.
Overall, 57% have an unfavorable opinion of President Trump’s handling of trade policy (an increase from 54% in March), while 43% have a favorable view.
Together, these findings suggest tariffs could pose a political liability for Republicans in the midterms, particularly among independents and voters concerned about higher prices. The survey finds that a plurality of Americans plan to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress over the Republican candidate by 47% to 42%, with 11% unsure.
eds Congressional Approval to Impose Tariffs
A new Cato Institute/Morning Consult survey of 4,150 registered voters finds that three in four (75%) say tariffs will be important to their vote in this November’s midterm elections.
Nearly the same share—74%—say that Trump’s tariffs increased the prices of things they buy at the store, including 66% of Republicans and 84% of Democrats. Majorities say the tariffs are a tax on Americans (57%) and believe they have weakened the US economy (53%), while just 23% say the tariffs have improved their personal quality of life. Overall, 57% have an unfavorable opinion of President Trump’s handling of trade policy (an increase from 54% in March), while 43% have a favorable view.
Together, these findings suggest tariffs could pose a political liability for Republicans in the midterms, particularly among independents and voters concerned about higher prices. The survey finds that a plurality of Americans plan to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress over the Republican candidate by 47% to 42%, with 11% unsure.
Most Believe Tariffs Have Driven Up Prices
While Americans like the idea of boosting American manufacturing, the public has soured on the inflationary impacts of President Trump’s tariffs. According to the fall survey, nearly three-fourths (74%) say Trump’s tariffs have increased the prices of what they buy at the store, with nearly half (49%) who say the tariffs have worsened their personal quality of life. The perception that tariffs have caused price increases is bipartisan: majorities of Democrats (84%), Republicans (66%), and independents (73%) all agree. Similarly, neither a majority of Democrats nor Republicans feel the tariffs have improved their personal quality of life, with 16% of Democrats, 11% of independents, and 33% of Republicans who say that tariffs have helped them personally.
Where Tariffs Raise Prices
Q: Where do tariffs raise prices?
A: Everywhere
Even 66 percent of Republicans understand this.
Most Think Tariffs Are a Tax on Americans
On the 2024 campaign trail, President Trump assured voters, “A tariff is a tax on a foreign country. That’s the way it is, whether you like it or not. A lot of people like to say, ‘Oh, it’s a tax on us.’ No, no, no. It’s a tax on a foreign country … it’s a tax that doesn’t affect our country.”
However, most Americans disagree. The fall survey found that a majority (57%) view tariffs as a tax increase on Americans. This includes 29% who think tariffs are primarily a tax increase on Americans and 28% who think tariffs are both a tax increase on Americans and foreign countries equally. Only 21% agree with the president that tariffs are only a tax increase on other countries, while 8% think they are not a tax increase and 14% don’t know. Notably, 40% of Republicans also view tariffs as a tax on Americans, as well as 54% of independents and 74% of Democrats. This demonstrates that a substantial share of the president’s own party don’t agree with him about tariffs not being a tax.
Tax on US Consumers
The above chart shows that Trump has managed to brainwash 29 percent of the poopulation.
Americans Support the Goals of “Buy American,” But Not If It Costs Them More
While Americans have soured on Trump’s trade policy, Americans like many of the goals associated with tariffs more than the tariffs themselves. Americans, including members of President Trump’s own party, are quite price sensitive.
Americans like the idea of making more things in America: for instance, the March survey found that 70% say the country would be better off with more factory workers, 53% initially would support a tariff on foreign-made blue jeans to encourage domestic production, and in August a plurality (45%) would favor a tariff on most imports to encourage companies to create more jobs and make more products in America.
Yet, the August survey found Americans wouldn’t pay even $100 a year in higher household costs in order to bring manufacturing home. Only 38% said they’d be willing to accept even $100 in additional household costs to encourage companies to create more jobs and manufacture more products in America.
How Much Would You Pay to Support US Manufacturing
That chart surprises me. I think it’s about right, but I would have guessed people would say more but not do so in practice.
But people are so damn fed up with price hikes they admit how they would act.
Americans Aren’t Convinced Tariffs Achieve Their Intended Goals
Americans are skeptical that tariffs actually achieve their intended goals. Only 42% think that tariffs are “effective” at encouraging Americans to buy American-made products instead of foreign-made imported products, while 41% say they are “ineffective” and 17% don’t know either way, according to the August survey.
There exists a significant partisan divide: 62% of Republicans believe tariffs are effective at nudging people to buy American products; conversely, 60% of Democrats think tariffs are ineffective. Independents are more likely to say tariffs are ineffective (46%) than effective (27%).
More say Trump’s tariffs harmed US manufacturing
Two-thirds of Americans prefer free trade with exceptions for national security
Methodology
The Cato Institute, in collaboration with Morning Consult, conducted the Cato 2026 Fall Trade and Populism National Survey from August 13–16, 2026, among 4,150 registered voters. The modeled margin of error for the full sample is ±2 percentage points. Cato, in collaboration with Morning Consult, conducted the Cato 2026 Spring Trade National Survey from March 27–29, 2026, from a sample of 2,002 registered voters. The modeled margin of error for the full sample is ±2 percentage points.
There is more discussion and many more charts in the article. I encourage a closer look.
Thanks CATO!
Senate Odds Jumped to 60 Percent Range for Democrats
In case you missed it, please see Nate Silver Senate Odds Jumped to 60 Percent Range for Democrats
Let’s discuss Silver’s three models plus the betting markets.