For the First Time, Kalshi Sees 52 Democrat Senate Seats
For those counting, that would be a pickup of five seats. Iowa on deck for six.
Note the 59 percent Kalshi Senate Odds at 59 percent for Democrats, a new high.
Polymarket Balance of Power
The Polymarket Balance of Power odds are at a record high 60 percent for Democrats as well.
Texas Senate
The Polymarket Texas Senate odds are also a record high 57 percent for Talarico.
Iowa Senate
The weirdest poll is the traditionally overweight-for-republicans Rasmussen has the Iowa Senate: Democrat Turek Leads by 5 Points
The betting markets don’t seem to believe it with Kalshi at 60 percent Republican and Polymarket at 61 percent republican.
In contrast, Nate Silver Classic has it 55 percent for Democrats but Deluxe at 46.7 percent.
Let’s call this one a tossup until we get more polls.
Dumbest Political Blunder in History
Trump running on lower gas prices and no more foreign wars and then starting a war with Iran that literallly everyone except Pete Hegseth knew was going to be a quagmire has to be on the shortlist for dumbest political blunders in American history. https://t.co/ihXsPYWIlF
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 18, 2026
Approval Rating
Holy shit, I have NEVER seen a President with approval ratings LOWER than 20% on the economy.
— BrooklynDad_Defiant!☮️ (@mmpadellan) September 17, 2026
NINETEEN PERCENT????
WOW. pic.twitter.com/ScaxpiUVdZ
Backlash
This inflation is not only on Trump – its also on Congressional Republicans who abandoned their basic constitutional duties and empowered Trump to turn tariff dials like a caffeinated child (plus cheering the price-hiking Iran war). They’ve fully earned the voter backlash too.) https://t.co/C2w3du1WFa
— Jessica Riedl 🧀 🇺🇦 (@JessicaBRiedl) September 17, 2026
Texas Polls
With two new polls out today, it has now been 10 straight polls that we track showing Talarico with a lead over Paxton.
— Matthew Watkins (@MWatkinsTrib) September 17, 2026
The last poll showing a Paxton lead was Emerson in August. But that’s the same firm that is showing Talarico up 1 in its latest poll today. Exempting that one,… pic.twitter.com/Lwn4ThIpRE
Looking Ahead
- There is no reason to believe Trump will do anything to fix anything.
- There is every indication he will continue to say stupid things that will cost him votes.
For example …
Trump Says He Could Ban Fishing
Trump: “I could’ve banned fishing. The power of this office is crazy. I could’ve banned fishing. I think I’m gonna do that.” pic.twitter.com/4zgac0te4d
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 17, 2026
Trump “Quite Impressed” With His Own Intelligence
Trump
— Marlene Robertson🇨🇦 (@marlene4719) September 17, 2026
“I was quite impressed with my intelligence.
I’m a high IQ person after all.”
Only someone with extreme cognitive impairment that’s made worse by advanced dementia would make such an irrational and embarrassing statement. pic.twitter.com/Hj0b41ASyp
I look Forward to This
👏👏👏
— Chris Rossini (@ChrisRossini) September 17, 2026
The Epstein Class keeps running away.
Massie keeps running them down. https://t.co/qtW1WXalcy
Ted’s Warning
Ted’s warning: If Dems win they will stop Trump’s war, lower Trump’s gas prices, lower Trump’s food prices, put a muzzle on Trump’s ICE, stop Trump’s ballroom, stop Trump from looting America, and stop Trump from protecting the Epstein Class.
— 💙🌊 Zero Dark Twenty-Nine 🌊🌊🖋️🧫 (@herotimeszero) September 16, 2026
Hmm, I think I can live with that. https://t.co/uFhS6zB3Ax
Trump Explains Trade Deficits
President Trump Explains Trade Deficits:
— Steven Huffman (@Poeslawisalive) September 17, 2026
“If we buy 2 billion dollars worth of Bananas from Brazil, we’re actually losing 2 billion dollars. So if we stop eating bananas, we actually save 2 billion dollars”.
It’s just simple Economics. pic.twitter.com/IiY99a7Azq
Note: That is not a direct quote on bananas but it accurately represents what Trump said.
More on Trade Deficits
Trump: “If we stopped trading with every country that we have a deficit with…which would be very easy to do, we would make at least $1.5 trillion a year.”
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) September 17, 2026
Dumbest. President. Ever. pic.twitter.com/apdkhRCS8Y
That was an accurate quote.
Even Fox News Sees It
When FOX. FUCKING. NEWS. is forced to report that 63% of voters feel the Trump administration made the economy WORSE and would actually prefer Democrats win in November, you know HELL ITSELF has FROZEN OVER.
— ThePatrioticBlonde™🇺🇸 (@ImBreckWorsham) September 17, 2026
That had to taste like VINEGAR going down. pic.twitter.com/hLj8vKVspL
And Finally
Tonight, the president of the United States was speaking on the concrete slab that used to be the Rose Garden to fishermen. He explained that he made a regulatory decision based on whether he’d prefer to be electrocuted by a boat battery or eaten by sharks in a crash. pic.twitter.com/A1c2kNN44L
— Jim Stewartson, Decelerationist 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇺🇸 (@jimstewartson) September 18, 2026
Trump would prefer to be electrocuted than face sharks.
Hmm. Why doesn’t he just ban sharks?
What to Expect
Expect more asinine comments by Trump on his IQ, fishing, sharks, Iran, the ballroom, whatever.
Then in 46 days expect a well-deserved Republican bloodbath.
I’m not voting for Democrats though. I will vote Libertarian. I refuse to vote for the lesser of two evils.
Related Posts
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September 16, 2026: The House Adjourns Early to Stop a Hegseth Impeachment Vote
Rep Massie is having fun. Hegseth would have been impeached.
September 17, 2026: Good News, 75 Percent Says Tariffs Important in Midterm Vote
Well, that’s good news, but for Democrats, not Republicans.