Hello MAGA, Let’s Discuss Trump Costing Republicans Six Senate Seats
Stop pretending. Abandon ship.
Kalshi T Minus 5 and Counting
- Alaska: 76% D
- Iowa: 54% R
- Maine: 72% D
- North Carolina: 93% D
- Ohio: 60% D
- Texas: 59% D
That’s a loss of five Senate Seats.
Nate Silver
- Alaska: 51.3% D – Essentially a tossup
- Iowa: 59.4% D
- Maine: 74.0% D
- North Carolina: 92.5% D
- Ohio: 74.4% D
- Texas: 70.2% D
That’s a loss of five Senate Seats with Alaska a tossup
Polymarket
- Alaska: 79% D
- Iowa: 52% R
- Maine: 74.0% D
- North Carolina: 95% D
- Ohio: 63% D
- Texas: 62% D
I think the betting markets have this correct and Silver is off.
But if the betting markets are wrong on Alaska and Silver is wrong on Iowa, that still a Democrat pickup of four.
If Silver is wrong on Alaska (tossup) but correct on Iowa, that’s the +6 clean sweep scenario.
Iowa and Alaska Polls
Neither of those look any good for Republicans.
I fail to understand the betting markets on Iowa and Nate Silver’s odds on Alaska.
Otherwise everyhing else lines up.
Polymarket Balance of Power
Balance of Power Estimates
- Polymarket: 66% D Sweep
- Kalshi: 63% D Sweep
- Nate Silver: 67.4% D Sweep
- Mish: 65% D sweep
I was the first to 65% and I am reluctant to go any higher for now.
Trump to Spend Time in Texas
Trump: “We have a very good candidate, Ken Paxton, and he’s running against Talafreako…I’m going to help Ken Paxton, and I’m going to spend a lot of time in Texas.” pic.twitter.com/lHVc3oYhBF https://t.co/dd9REr52xj
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) September 23, 2026
Sounds like good news for Democrats.
Yes, Send in Trump
Nearly 7 months into Donald Trump’s reckless war, and there’s STILL no plan or no end in sight.
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) September 22, 2026
Meanwhile, Americans are stuck with HIGHER costs and gas prices.
What exactly are Americans paying for? https://t.co/A9Fj4vebzB
Former President George W. Bush and Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, are rallying Republican donors behind GOP Senate candidates in key midterm races — while leaving Texas Republican nominee Ken Paxton out of the effort. MORE: https://t.co/CBNTbSUMSr pic.twitter.com/iFElEwMmpA
— NEWSMAX (@NEWSMAX) September 22, 2026
Listen to these Idiots
Vance on Trump’s ban on CNN, MS NOW, and Politico: “It’s not a ban, it’s a refusal to grant access” pic.twitter.com/y3tpkqY5d5
— FactPost (@factpostnews) September 22, 2026
Lesson of the Day
Votes to kick undocumented farm workers out of the country
— Sean O’Neill (@SeanOhhhh) September 23, 2026
Melts down because she can’t find help for her farm pic.twitter.com/bk7UCl7WVy
Yeah, Round em all up. Deport them all. Then vote for Trump.
Actually, I have no idea who she voted for. But in general, farmers voted for Trump.
I do not wish farmers harm, but nor do I have much sympathy for for any farmer who voted for Trump.
Hello Alaska
The find out stage has arrived in Alaska. https://t.co/IBdFIBSvrS
— Nurses Against Dick Pics. 🪷🇺🇦 (@ClaudetteGGibs1) September 23, 2026
Blame Game Starts Already
Seriously, get a f’n grip on reality.
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) September 23, 2026
Trump gets 100% of the blame for what happens in the midterms.
Blame Thune. What a hoot.
One Hell of an Effort
It took a lot of really really bad decisions to get here but he did it https://t.co/UL2wwAeDHp
— Molly Jong-Fast (@MollyJongFast) September 21, 2026
But hey, have you seen the DOW?! That’s what we should be talking about.
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