Yemen war puts Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan defence pact to first test
Turkey and Pakistan are moving to back Saudi Arabia militarily as the Mecca Alliance faces its first major test in the escalating Yemen war.
Saudi Arabia has received military backing from Turkey and Pakistan amid its escalating conflict with the Houthis [Getty]
Saudi Arabia's defence alliance with Turkey and Pakistan has moved from words to action for the first time, as escalating fighting in Yemen puts the two-month-old pact's collective defence commitments to the test.
The three members of the Mecca Alliance agreed at an emergency meeting in Riyadh on Sunday to begin the "practical implementation" of their collective defence commitments following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
They also agreed to make previously agreed military forces and capabilities available for rapid deployment to the kingdom.
But the move does not necessarily mean Turkish and Pakistani forces will join Saudi Arabia in directly fighting the Houthis.
Instead, experts told The New Arab that Pakistan could concentrate on territorial defence and military support inside Saudi Arabia, while Turkey provides capabilities including surveillance, air defence and drones.
For Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King's College London's School of Security Studies, the decision marks a significant evolution of the alliance.
"This is the first point at which I would describe the Mecca Pact as operational rather than primarily declaratory," Krieg told The New Arab.
"The critical development is not simply that the three governments have invoked collective defence. It is that Turkey and Pakistan are altering their military posture in response to attacks on Saudi Arabia and have committed to deploy previously agreed capabilities," Krieg said.
"That is the threshold the pact had to cross if it was going to have any deterrent credibility."
What will Pakistan and Turkey actually do?
The Mecca Alliance was established in August amid growing regional instability. Its collective defence principle means an attack against one member is treated as a threat to all three.
The arrangement has drawn comparisons with NATO's Article 5, but Krieg cautioned against taking the comparison too far.
"I would describe the pact as Article 5 language without Article 5 infrastructure," he said.
NATO has spent decades developing integrated military commands, common doctrine and joint planning. The Mecca Alliance has existed for only two months.
"This is meaningful activation, but it is the operationalisation of a flexible alliance rather than the creation of a unified war-fighting structure," Krieg said. "Yemen is now providing its first real operational laboratory."
The three countries have not publicly disclosed exactly which forces or military capabilities Turkey and Pakistan will deploy.
Krieg expects their roles to be substantially different.
Pakistan could provide territorial and air defence, training, advisers and manpower to protect strategic infrastructure, but is likely to be cautious about offensive operations against the Houthis partly because of its relationship with Iran.
Turkey could provide intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, radar and air defence, unmanned systems, electronic warfare and naval surveillance.
"That allows all three states to say collective defence is functioning without requiring all three to fight the same war in the same way," Krieg said.
What does it change inside Yemen?
For Saudi Arabia, the most important effect may not be additional forces fighting inside Yemen but greater protection from attacks at home.
Maysaa Shuja al-Deen, a senior researcher at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, said the Houthis were likely among the threats Saudi Arabia had in mind when the agreement was designed.
Saudi Arabia is "the more vulnerable member state in this alliance, security-wise", she told The New Arab.
The Houthis have developed increasingly sophisticated missile and drone capabilities with Iranian support, allowing the group to strike targets well beyond territory it controls in Yemen.
Shuja al-Deen said Saudi Arabia's size and extensive economic infrastructure make defending against such attacks particularly demanding.
"No, it will not change the military situation inside Yemen," she said of the immediate effect of Turkish and Pakistani support.
Rather, "it will make the Saudis less vulnerable" to Houthi attacks.
That could nevertheless affect the war.
Saudi Arabia remains the principal external supporter of the Yemeni government and other anti-Houthi forces. If Riyadh reduced that support, Shuja al-Deen said, those forces would be placed in "huge trouble".
Stronger Saudi defences against missiles and drones - and the possibility of renewed Houthi ground operations towards the Saudi border - could therefore allow Riyadh to sustain its support for anti-Houthi forces for longer.
"When they become stronger in that sense, they can continue to support these anti-Houthi camp forces," she said.
Shuja al-Deen also warned that the threat to Saudi Arabia may not remain confined to missiles and drones.
She believes Houthi preparations and rhetoric indicate the group could eventually attempt another ground incursion across the Saudi border, although she stressed that it was unclear when such an operation might take place.
"I think the Houthis... are going to invade or to expand through the Saudi territories at some point in this war," she said. "I'm not sure when, but it seems from their preparation and from their discourse and media that they are going to do something like that."
The assessment comes amid heightened military activity in the Houthi stronghold of Saada along the Saudi border, where weapons and equipment have been moved towards frontier areas in recent weeks.
That possibility further increases the importance of the territorial defence Pakistan can provide, while Turkish and Pakistani support against missiles and drones could make Saudi Arabia better able to withstand Houthi pressure.
Turkish drones and Pakistani military expertise could provide additional support, Shuja al-Deen added, but she did not expect large numbers of Turkish or Pakistani troops to enter Yemen.
"Yemenis have plenty of fighters on both sides," she said.
Are Turkey and Pakistan now part of the Yemen war?
Direct Turkish or Pakistani intervention against the Houthis could risk widening a conflict already entangled with the regional confrontation involving Iran.
Shuja al-Deen said she did not currently expect the Houthis to retaliate directly against either country. Turkey is geographically removed from Yemen, while Pakistan occupies a sensitive position in Iran's regional calculations and maintains an important relationship with Tehran.
"I don't think they are going to widen the conflict at this moment to that extent," she said.
Krieg similarly expects Pakistan to remain wary of offensive action against the Houthis because Islamabad has strong incentives to avoid confrontation with Iran.
Turkey, meanwhile, is attempting to strengthen Saudi Arabia's position without closing the door to diplomacy.
Krieg said Ankara's preferred outcome was not the military destruction of the Houthis but a stronger Saudi negotiating position that could eventually produce a settlement.
Is the alliance aimed at Iran?
When Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan established the pact, they sought to reassure Iran that it was not intended as an anti-Iranian military bloc.
Its first activation has now come amid a war involving the Houthis, an armed movement closely aligned with Tehran.
Shuja al-Deen said the members had been explicit from the beginning that Iran was not the target.
But "it seems now, very obviously, that the Yemen war is the first test for this agreement", she said.
Krieg also cautioned against viewing the alliance simply as an emerging Sunni bloc designed to confront Iran.
"Iran and the Houthis are the immediate catalyst, but they are not the fundamental explanation," he said.
Instead, he sees the alliance as part of a broader Saudi effort to reduce the risks of relying overwhelmingly on the United States for its security.
Riyadh continues to depend on Washington for advanced aircraft, intelligence, missile defence, logistics and other high-end military capabilities, and is not attempting to replace its US security relationship.
"In that sense, I think Mecca is best understood as a supplement to the US architecture rather than an alternative to it," Krieg said.
Saudi Arabia brings financial resources and political weight to the arrangement, while Turkey contributes technology and its growing defence industry and Pakistan offers manpower, established military institutions and strategic depth.
"The Houthis triggered its first activation, but the alliance is really about how Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan intend to operate in a regional order where American power remains important but American reliability can no longer be taken for granted," Krieg said.