21
OCT
2026
According to the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP) in an analysis published in mid-September ("The Decline of Russian Power in the Western Balkans"), the non-EU countries of Southeast Europe represent a central security problem for the EU due to unresolved political conflicts, ongoing rivalries and continuing ethnic tensions. The war in Ukraine has led to Russia largely losing the ability to influence political developments in the region, writes the DGAP. However, in addition to China, Turkey and Iran, Moscow continues to compete with the United States and especially the EU for influence in the region. The United States increasingly relied on "illiberal" transactions. Its strategy aims at partnerships with the countries of Southeast Europe, in which geopolitical interests would be linked with economic investment opportunities - such as energy businesses, the construction of transport corridors or the construction of AI data centers. Individuals and organizations from the environment of the Trump clan in particular benefited from this. 1]
At the same time, the DGAP emphasizes that all countries in southeastern Europe that are not yet part of the EU are interested in a rapprochement with the Federation of States. However, there was a two-part accession process: on the one hand were the leaders Montenegro and Albania, the so-called WB2 (“Western Balkans 2”), which were the most advanced in the accession negotiations; on the other hand were the remaining WB4 – Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia. The DGAP advises the Federal Government, in particular for Bosnia and Herzegovina and for Kosovo, which are still furthest away from EU membership, to initiate talks on tailor-made association plans.[ 2] Similar proposals were also discussed at a conference of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) and the Zentrum Liberale Moderne at the beginning of October, at which the future of EU enlapment, models of gradual integration and the Russian influence on the EU integration process were discussed. 3]
Officially, the EU is aiming for the inclusion of more states in the coming years. Among the most promising candidates for accession are Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova. However, new restrictions for future Member States are being discussed. Accordingly, the new members are to receive significantly fewer rights than the previous 27 EU countries for many years and to be able to be punished for violations of the rules. For example, they are to commit themselves in writing - this is what is provided for by a current initiative by the EU Commission - not to block decisions that require unanimity for up to 15 years. In addition, during a "trial period of up to ten years", the new members should not be given unrestricted access to the internal market or to the common agricultural policy. In addition, a gradual integration is planned, in which accession candidates will gradually be integrated into individual policy areas of the EU, such as transport and environmental policy, depending on their progress. A reduction in the reduction of the EU Commission is also up for debate. Accordingly, in future, only two-thirds of the Member States will have to appoint a commissioner at the same time. A rotation principle is intended to ensure that all member states are represented alternately.[ 4] EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen underlined the strategic importance of enlargement: It is not a mere "nice-to-have", but a "geopolitical necessity". 5]
The DGAP warns of growing differences between the strategies of Washington and the EU. International organizations such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe no longer enjoy the same political support as they used to. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the new US approach has already led to changes; there, for example, Washington has been able to force the resignation of High Representative Christian Schmidt (CSU) in cooperation with Milorad Dodik, the strong man of the Republika Srpska. 6] The background is, among other things, conflicting interests of the USA and Western European countries, especially in gas and raw materials business in Bosnia and Herzegovina. So far, the country has been supplied with Russian natural gas via the TurkStream pipeline. In the future, this will be replaced by US liquid gas (LNG), which will be imported via a terminal on the Croatian island of Krk. The construction of a new pipeline to Bosnia and Herzegovina is planned. 7] The CSU politician Schmidt held the democratically unlegitimized post of the High Representative, who is endowed with far-reaching, quasi-colonial powers. Schmidt stood in the way of the US plans. His executive successor was the US diplomat Louis Crishock.
Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul (CDU) was most recently in the region at the beginning of October to strengthen the German position there. He took part in a meeting of foreign ministers as part of the "Berlin Process", which was launched twelve years ago by the then Chancellor Angela Merkel. It is intended to closely connect the six non-EU countries of Southeast Europe - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. While all countries in the region were represented with their foreign ministers, only his counterparts from Austria, Croatia and Slovenia and EU enlienment Commissioner Marta Kos took part on the EU side in addition to Wadephul. Other EU countries do not participate in the "Berlin Process" or, such as Italy, France, Greece and Poland, only sent state secretaries or high-ranking officials. Next year, elections will take place in several European countries, in which EU policy plays a controversial role. This should make the enlargement process even more difficult, especially since every accession must be ratified by all 27 EU member states. In Montenegro, Wadephul struck a admonishing tone and spoke of a "punsroads" in the EU enlaration process. At the end of October, Chancellor Friedrich Merz will participate in another summit. 8]
[1], [2] Nikola Xaviereff: The decline of Russian power in the Western Balkans. dgap.org 09/14/2026.
[3] Florian Feyerabend: The future of EU expansion: EU integration as a geopolitical necessity. kas.de 06.10.2026.
[4] Christoph B. Schiltz: Dispute in the EU - Why Germany is slowing down the next major enlargement. welt.de 06.10.2026.
[5] Elisabeth Postl: More power, more members – Brussels' delicate balancing act. handelsblatt.com 06.07.2026.
[6] Nikola Xaviereff: The decline of Russian power in the Western Balkans. dgap.org 09/14/2026. S. also fight for Bosnia-Herzegovina.
[7] S. also US liquid gas for Eastern and Southeastern Europe.
[8] Hans von der Burchard: "We have not delivered" - Wadephul warns Europe against breaking the word. welt.de 02.10.2026.