Republican Voter Preference Drops to Record Low -11 Percent in New National Poll
Likely voters favored Democratic candidates over Republicans by 11 percentage points in New York Times/Siena poll.
Trump Approval Hits New Low Two Weeks Before Midterms
The New York Times reports Trump Approval Hits New Low Two Weeks Before Midterms, Poll Finds
President Trump’s approval rating hit a new low just a few weeks before the midterm elections, driven down by broad disapproval of his handling of the economy, the war in Iran and high gas prices, according to a new national poll from The New York Times and Siena University.
Just 36 percent of likely voters said that they approved of Mr. Trump’s performance, while 59 percent said that they disapproved. That is his lowest approval rating recorded in any Times/Siena poll. More than two-thirds of independent voters said that they disapproved of the way he has handled his job as president.
Likely voters said that they preferred Democratic candidates over Republicans by 11 percentage points in their congressional districts in the final Times/Siena national poll before the midterm elections, a slight improvement for Democrats since last month. The metric is widely seen as a strong indicator of political momentum.
The national political environment is bleak for Republicans. Americans broadly disapprove of economic conditions under the Trump administration, with three-quarters rating the economy as fair or poor. A majority of voters blame Mr. Trump for the decline: 69 percent disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, 65 percent disapprove of his handling of the war in Iran and nearly three-quarters disapprove of his handling of gas prices, which are above $4 a gallon.
Among all registered voters, including those who are less likely to vote, Mr. Trump’s approval rating was even worse, with 34 percent approving of his job performance. Mr. Trump built his 2016 and 2024 wins partly on the strength of his support among white voters without a college degree, but the poll found that group is about evenly split in its approval of his job, with 48 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.
A majority of likely voters now see the Democratic Party as the party of the working class — a shift from 2022, when voters gave the Republican Party the edge. Voters also see Democrats as more likely to keep their promises than Republicans, a striking reversal from two years ago, when Republicans held an advantage on that question.
And majorities across nearly every demographic group now view Democrats as more understanding and able to fix the problems of average Americans.
How Sentiment Changed Over Time
Data for the following MishTalk charts is from NYT 2026-10-21 Toplines. These charts are registered voters as opposed to likely voters.
NYT/Siena Poll National Voter Preference Over Time
The poll shows a +12 (Registered Voters), national preference for Democrats in the NYT/Siena Oct 12-19 2026 poll up from +2 on Sep 22-27 2025.
The NYT chart is likely voters.
Trump’s Handling Job as President Over Time
Trump’s Handling the Economy Over Time
Biggest Unforced Political Error in History
It’s easy to spot the timeframe in which all hell broke loose for Trump. Trump’s War with Iran started on February 28, 2026.
Between mid-January and mid-May Trump’s net strong-approval fell from -21 percent to -35 percent.
Voters were already upset over inflation, jobs, and tariffs, then Trump made one of the biggest unforced political errors in history by starting a deeply unpopular war.
Trump had a chance at walking away by signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran that opened the Strait of Hormuz
The US–Iran MOU—known as the Islamabad Memorandum—was drafted on June 14, 2026, virtually signed on June 15, and formally signed on June 17, 2026, starting a 60-day window for peace and nuclear negotiations
Trump broke the MOU blaming Iran. The MOU ceased August 17, 2026.
Oil prices surged at the start of the war, then diesel prices followed with even steeper increases as a result of Iran targeting refineries in the Mideast and Ukraine targeting Russian refineries.
Trump blames everyone but himself for rising energy prices. Voters accurately blame Trump.
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