- Hardliners in the Iranian elite increasingly agree on the need to exit the Non-Proliferation Treaty and build nuclear weapons, according to the Financial Times. This is a predictable failure of a war ostensibly fought to prevent Iran from going nuclear, creating the possibility of more proliferation in the region.
- First, the war encouraged Iran to pursue a nuclear deterrent by demonstrating that their existing deterrence against attack needs upgrading. While Iran avoided weaponizing its latent nuclear capabilities for years when it had the opportunity, it may now feel it has no choice.
- Second, by wiping out the top ranks of Iran's leadership, the war empowered more hardline elements in Tehran's ruling elite. The assassination of the Ayatollah Khamenei voided his fatwa against nuclear weapons, clearing the way for his more hawkish son and heir to break the taboo.
- The U.S. could contain and deter even a nuclear Iran, but diplomacy remains the only realistic way to close Tehran's path to a nuclear weapons program. The Obama administration successfully pursued the JCPOA with Tehran. By breaking that deal, imposing "maximum pressure" sanctions, and then attacking Iran, the Trump administration has made a similarly productive deal less likely and more costly to achieve.
- Still threatening to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, President Trump is encouraging Iran to pursue the same course as North Korea, which alone among the original "axis of evil" has avoided being attacked by the U.S. If Washington still hopes to convince Iran to forgo nuclear weapons, the best course is to stop the war and demonstrate to Tehran that they don't need nukes to gain additional deterrence.
Learn more with a DEFP explainer: A security dilemma made worse: How war with Iran backfired |
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Iran's limited missile range |
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Iran's missiles, with a maximum range of under 1,600 miles, cannot reach anywhere close to the United States homeland.
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