Saudi Arabia suddenly looks vulnerable. President Trump seems unwilling to help.
By Stephen Kinzer – Boston Globe -- October 22, 2026
Scary tremors are shaking entrenched regimes around the Persian Gulf. A war that was supposed to crush Iran has metastasized into a regional conflict. It now threatens the largest and most powerful petro-state, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Never since its founding in 1932 has Saudi Arabia seemed as endangered as it is today. It is under a sustained attack from Iran-backed Houthi militants that it seems ill-equipped to resist. Its traditional protector, the United States, appears unwilling to come to its aid. Its 41-year-old leader, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, has dropped out of sight and is reportedly moving among palaces and bunkers.
Until now, Saudi Arabia was taking the fight to the Houthis in neighboring Yemen.
But this month the Houthis struck back. They shocked the region and the world by launching a missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s main airport, causing extensive damage and killing 13 people. Another strike hit the headquarters of the state-owned oil company.
Events around the Persian Gulf are unfolding at breakneck speed. The region’s entire security architecture has been thrown into doubt. Saudi Arabia’s enemies, Iran and the Houthis, hold at least partial control over both sea passages through which most of its oil is exported — the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Oil accounts for 60 percent of the Saudi Arabian government’s income.
Saudi Arabia has only a “parade army,” not a real fighting force. The al-Saud family concluded long ago that a powerful army might one day rebel. Rather than take that risk, it chose to defend itself in two other ways. To avoid upheaval at home, it maintained a web of alliances with clerics, tribal leaders, and businessmen. To defend against threats from other countries, it counted on its partnership with the United States. Both of those pillars of Saudi stability are now crumbling.
In 1945 the first Saudi king, Abdul-Aziz ibn Saud, met secretly with President Franklin Roosevelt aboard an American warship anchored near the Suez Canal. They advanced a mutually beneficial relationship: Saudi Arabia would provide access to its oil, and in exchange the United States would protect the al-Saud family regime.
That relationship began to unravel in 2017, when MBS staged a palace coup, seized absolute power, and ordered the arrest of dozens of potential challengers, including many of his relatives. He has proclaimed a series of reforms, including permitting public film showings and easing restrictions on women. By concentrating all authority in his own hands, however, he abandoned his family’s tradition of collective decision-making. That has isolated him. When a Saudi king was assassinated in 1975, the regime survived and power remained within the al-Saud family. Today, the fall of MBS could leave Saudi Arabia leaderless.
Threats to Saudi Arabia come not only from within. Its Yemeni enemy has proven astonishingly potent. The Houthis manufacture their own missiles and drones, sometimes with Chinese technology and Iranian parts. Their engineers have reportedly even used artificial intelligence to develop guided weapons. The former US envoy to Yemen, Timothy Lenderking, recently called them “the most lethal nonstate actor in the entire Middle East.”
Beyond Yemen to its south, geography looks grim for Saudi Arabia. Its bloodied but evidently unbowed archenemy, Iran, sits just across the Gulf to its east. Iraq, where pro-Iran militias are strong, looms from the north. It is a daunting panorama for a country that has a decent air force and some missile capacity, but not much more in the way of defense.
None of that would matter if the United States were still willing to honor the arrangement that dates back to the days of Ibn Saud and Franklin Roosevelt. But when MBS telephoned President Trump on Sept. 10 and asked him to bomb Yemen, Trump refused. He is struggling with unexpected resistance to his war against Iran, and apparently has no wish to open a new front.
That may make sense for the United States, which has been dragged into too many Middle East wars already. For MBS, however, it was a heavy blow. His country is being bombed. He has alienated much of his extended family and its wider network. His main ally, the United States, seems unwilling to protect him.
MBS could seek military help from a sympathetic country with a real army. Egypt, Turkey, or Pakistan might help. Their military-backed governments realize that upheaval in Saudi Arabia could spread to their countries. It could also shake the monarchies in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Another option for MBS would be to strike a deal with the Houthis. Deep-seated hostility on both sides, however, along with the fact that the Houthis claim parts of Saudi Arabia, make that difficult. The third alternative would be for MBS to try to persuade the United States to change course and come to his aid, but that also seems unlikely.
The US-Israeli attack on Iran in February was supposed to stabilize the Middle East and secure America’s dominance there. It has done the opposite. America’s old allies in the region are facing challenges they never expected. The United States isn’t there to help. And even the al-Saud family suddenly seems mortal.
Stephen Kinzer is a senior fellow at the Watson School of International and Public Affairs at Brown University.