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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. The two main architects of the war on Iran are preparing to face voters for the first time since the start of the conflict in February. Neither would have expected to still be engaged in a confrontation that continues to roil energy markets and may well be about to escalate. Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies facing their strongest challenge from a bloc led by former general Gadi Eisenkot. Polls suggest none of the groups will get a majority in parliament, which could mean weeks of horse-trading, or even another election, before someone emerges strong enough to form a government. In Israel, unlike in the US, the war against Iran was broadly popular. What has hurt Netanyahu is that it’s turned into a months-long battle with no end in sight and the fact the Islamic Republic, the theocratic government in Tehran, has survived. Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles on display beside a portrait of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in Tehran on Sept. 28. Photographer: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images For Donald Trump, it’s been a political disaster. Fuel prices are soaring and his popularity among American voters has dived. The US president won’t be on the ballot for the Nov. 3 midterm elections, but if his Republican Party loses the House of Representatives and, especially, the Senate, his decision to start the Iran war will be one of the main reasons. Whatever voters decide, fears of a new US-Israeli bombing campaign are growing. Trump has threatened more strikes, perhaps soon after the midterms, and Netanyahu has, in recent days, vowed to achieve regime change in Iran. Trump welcomes Netanyahu to his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach on Dec. 29, 2025. Photographer: Joe Raedle/Getty Images Tehran says it would retaliate fiercely, a worrying prospect for Gulf Arab states and their economies. They were targeted with thousands of Iranian drones and missiles before a truce in April. Many have come under attack since then too, while Saudi Arabia is already facing daily fire from the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. For Trump and Netanyahu, the failure to secure the quick victory they envisaged could be costly. — Paul Wallace |