Western Media Ignores Mecca-Alliance-Sought Regional Security Meeting in Tehran; Would Republican Midterm Wipeout Force Trump into Iran and Ukraine Retreats?
Today’s Iran war update is comparatively short due to the current low level of kinetic action as the Israel elections start and the US midterms are now a week away But the press is also following the fallout (from the big money vantage) of the Lula win in Brazil, European protests, and the Anthropic IPO and other “AI funding versus the clock” stories, and skipping over not only Iran/Saudi-Ansar Allah conflict developments, but also the sharp escalation of Israel ethnic cleansing on the West Back, particularly in Hebron.
We’ll briefly turn to the West Bank horrors before turning to a potentially fundamental shift in Middle East politics, that of key states closely or at least somewhat allied with the US exploring a regional security alliance with Iran. We said from the very outset of the Iran war that one way for the conflict to end would be for Gulf States to pull away from the US and come to a modus vivendi with Iran. The abject failure of the US to defend the petrostates and the punishment they suffered as a result of hosting US forces and allowing use of their airspace appears finally to have sunk in, at least to a degree with Saudi Arabia.
The flip side is these kingdoms are still very much US dependencies. The UAE dollar and the Saudi riyal are both pegged to the US dollar. If you think the Europeans, who were dominant global players not that long ago, are having trouble divorcing themselves from the US from a military and economic perspective, imaging how much harder it is for these fragile Middle East states. So as much as the opening meeting between Mecca Alliance members and Tehran is promising, perhaps even seminal, it seems unlikely to get very far unless the US is willing to use it as cover for an exit. As we will see below, Robert Barnes’ take on potential US election outcomes makes that possibility less remote than it might seem.
As for the other Mecca Alliance members Pakistan and Turkiye…..the very well-connected Trita Parsi recounted on a fresh Mario Nawfal talk that Iran does not trust Pakistan as a mediator, that it has come to see Islamabad as a message-carrier for/advocate of the US. And as for Turkiye, Erdogan’s middle name is double-dealing. One of many many examples that no less that DW recounted: Turkey lets Azov fighters go back to Ukraine, breaking deal with Russia.
But Israel has agency and will continue on its murderous, self-destructive aggression until it runs out of steam. We’ll skip over pre-election speculation since the results will come in in relatively short order, and we can then look at what comes next. For those who care to follow it closely, Aljzaeera has turned its live feed entirely over to the Israel election.
To the West Bank. From Aljazeera in UN panel accuses Israel of ‘extermination’ in West Bank, genocide in Gaza:
A United Nations commission of inquiry has accused Israel of committing crimes against humanity in the occupied West Bank, including extermination, torture and rape, while also continuing “to commit genocide in Gaza” despite a ceasefire brokered by the United States.
The report, published on Monday by the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, examined killings and physical and mental harm inflicted by state actors from October 7, 2023, through September of this year.
Note this report does not include the pre-election surge in violence in the West Bank, widely seen as intended to burnish Netanyahu’s Amalek bona-fides. The pretext was two IDF soldier deaths in the West Bank, see Associated Press on October 24 in Israeli military says 2 soldiers were killed in West Bank attack that also left 2 gunmen dead for more on the backstory.
Back to the Aljazeera summary:
The commission found that the situation in the West Bank, which Israel has occupied since 1967, had “deteriorated gravely” since the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023.
It said Israeli military operations, reinforced by sustained violence by settlers, amounted to a “widespread and systematic attack” on civilians, and that Israeli authorities “intended to collectively punish” residents of the occupied West Bank for the Hamas-led attack on Israel.
“The Israeli authorities and forces have committed the crimes against humanity of extermination, torture, rape and other forms of sexual violence in the West Bank, as well as persecution based on intersecting discriminatory grounds, with nationality, race and ethnicity at its core,” the report said.
Interestingly, remarks by Ali Bagheri Kani, Deputy for Foreign Policy and International Security at Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretariat, suggest that yesterday’s quadrilateral meeting in Tehran was not intended as a one-off event.
– According to Bagheri, there was no discussion about expanding the format to include other countries. Instead, the emphasis was on continuing consultations among Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey within the same framework.
– He also revealed that the participants discussed the timing and location of future meetings, although no final decision was reached. Mohsen Rezaei reportedly tasked Bagheri himself with following up on preparations for further consultations in the near future.
– As I wrote yesterday, this suggests that the quadrilateral format may be emerging as a more regular diplomatic channel, rather than simply a one-time initiative aimed at addressing the current Iran-US crisis.
On the assault on Hebron:
Predictable harassment of foreign media. They act like they have something to hide, no?
And ongoing indignities:
Now to the outreach to Iran via Mecca Alliance members. Again, I would curb my optimism, with one big caveat. If these feelers continue, it could allow for Trump to depict progress as faster than it is, both to try to calm nervous markets and to even take credit in some manner. That matters because even halting talks could give Trump cover for not engaging in his much-promised devastating attack. Think of this as the Trump analogue to Peneolope in the Odyssey unravelling at night the shroud she was weaving during the day, to hold her suitors at bay, or Scheherazade telling stories every that she didn’t wrap up to the serially sexually betrayed King Shahriyâr who had resolved to kill every women he had sex iwht, enticing him to stay her execution day by day for the famed one thousand and one nights, when he finally pardoned her.
Even though (due also to this being a slow Middle East news day ex the Israel elections), many in the independent commentary sphere have been excited about the talks in Tehran, PressTV did not make it the biggest story on its landing page:
By contrast, I found no front-page mention of these talks at BBC, the Middle East version of Bloomberg, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, or the Guardian. The Washington Post did deign to take note of the talks, but its story is literally at the very end of its long landing page, which IMHO is burying it:
Anadolu Agency did not showcase the meetings either. From its landing page:
From the PressTV account, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia hold security meeting in Tehran:
Delegations from Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have begun a meeting in Tehran, with regional security, the consequences of US-Israeli military aggression and support for the Palestinians and Lebanese among the main topics of discussion.
The meeting, which kicked off on Monday, was proposed by Pakistan and held with Iran’s support and cooperation.
Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Major General Mohsen Rezaei is hosting the gathering.
Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman and Turkish National Intelligence Organization Director Ibrahim Kalin are representing their respective countries.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also attended the four-way meeting.
Before the meeting, the three representatives met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
After the meeting, Rezaei told reporters that regional cooperation should have begun long ago and that the visits by senior Turkish, Pakistani and Saudi officials showed that US threats do not have much of an impact on countries around the world.
The top security official pointed out that a new and positive atmosphere has taken shape in the region and that the results of the Iranian nation’s resistance in the face of US-Israeli aggression are becoming more tangible every day.
On the outcome of the summit, Rezaei said the Pakistani, Saudi and Turkish delegations believed that the solution to the region’s problems lies in the four countries working together.
As we’ll see soon from Twitter comments, a big belief was that the motivation for these talks was for the Saudis, with help from their friends, to press Iran to get Ansar Allah to back off from attacks. This seems probable if misguided. Ansar Allan has agency. Even though it has gotten financial support from Iran, its drone and missile technology and manufacture are largely indigenous. Iran is widely believe to have pushed Ansar Allah earlier to enter the war and mess with Red Sea shipping, and it demurred then. Ansar Allah also has clear demands for ending its attacks on the Saudis, and has no reason to back down given that it clearly has the upper hand.
To return briefly to media coverage, Anadolu Agency, readers had to scroll way way down the page to see Iran says 4-nation talks back regional security free of outside interference.
Note the failure in the headline to name all the participants, particularly Turkiye. The subhead also presents the results as underwhelming:
Talks with senior officials from Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan created a new, positive atmosphere, says secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
From the body of the stary:
The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said participants in four-nation talks in Tehran on Monday agreed that security in West Asia should be based on regional states, with external interference prevented.
Mohsen Rezaei made the remarks following a meeting of delegations from Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Iran to discuss regional security, Israeli activities in the region, and developments in Palestine and Lebanon.
“We concluded that West Asia’s security must be based on the countries of the region, and any external interference must be prevented,” he said.
Rezaei said regional countries should have begun cooperating earlier, arguing that the Turkish, Pakistani, and Saudi delegations’ visits to Tehran demonstrated that US threats had no effect at the global level.
He said talks with senior officials from the three countries had created a new, positive atmosphere.
“The four countries believe that cooperation among them offers a way out of the crises facing the region,” he added.
From the ample speculation on Twitter. A take similar to ours (which I saw after completing the overview above) from AJ. Note he adds that any proposals have ot go though the approval process in Iran:
All photos, no bite…
Based on my assessment and analysis here is the reading of the current situation and the developments over the last 48 hours:
1. The Tehran meeting is HIGHLY UNLIKELY (about 15%) to change the course of the war, because the decisions that set it sit in Washington, and Jerusalem, none of which was at the table.
2. Perhaps it can change Saudi Arabia’s place in the next round of target selection: if US strikes resume after 3 Nov (likely, 55-65%), Iran sparing Saudi territory is now a realistic possibility (40-50%), with risk displaced to the other Gulf nations.
3. A written Saudi-Iran undertaking is unlikely (about 25%) and a 14-day Houthi pause is unlikely (about 20%).
4. Decisions are still needed from the Supreme Leader, Iranian Parliament and for Turkey to ratify the Mecca Agreement and for Saudi Arabia to endorse any proposed deal.
More to follow.
Signal, not noise!
This rumor has made the rounds in the YouTube commentary community: