U.S. Warns Gulf of Possible Short, Intense Renewal of Iran War After Midterms
There are new signs that the American and Israeli militaries are preparing a potential wave of strikes to muscle Tehran to the negotiating table
Oct. 27, 2026
DUBAI—The U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, people briefed on the conversations said.
The communications through diplomatic and military channels are among a growing number of indications that the U.S. and Israel are readying to launch a new round of heavy combat operations against Iran, risking a major escalation in hopes of degrading Tehran’s strength and pushing it toward negotiations.
The U.S. military is bringing in a Patriot system from Texas to beef up its missile defenses and has moved troops off bases where they were vulnerable in preparation for an escalation, officials familiar with those moves said.
U.S. forces in the region have been restocking their munitions, and bomber aircraft and jet fighters are preparing for strikes, some of the officials said. An additional aircraft carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary unit are also poised to join an armada of roughly 20 other warships operating in the Middle East next month, although some ships could rotate out.
President Trump hasn’t decided to go ahead but is leaning toward a large postelection attack that could target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites, people familiar with his thinking said.
The alternative would be to try to cut a deal. Diplomatic efforts by regional mediators continued but had yet to bear fruit.
“We may do another little Epic Fury,” Trump said at a rally last week, referring to the heavy U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign in the spring. “Or they’ll agree.”
The White House said it wouldn’t comment on “sensitive military plans that may or may not exist.”
“President Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” the White House said.
The president has said he won’t attack Iran before the midterms.
The moves and related planning are meant to give Trump options should he decide to carry out a strike, people familiar with the planning said. The Defense Department said its job is to deliver such options.
Israel also has prepared plans and targets for a new attack, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued to push for a resumption of strikes in hopes of degrading Iran’s strength and ultimately toppling the regime.
A return to airstrikes would mean a pivot from the Trump administration’s economic pressure campaign. Tighter sanctions coupled with a naval blockade have cut off Iran’s oil sales for months, shut down much of its air links and cut into overland trade, tightening the squeeze on the country’s already spiraling economy.
“If there is a need to target a growing threat like missile reconstitution, President Trump should make that case publicly and with as much detail as possible,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a U.S. think tank. “Otherwise, at the moment, the U.S. has a winning hand through maintaining sanctions and the blockade. It should stay the course.”
Many analysts believe Iran isn’t likely to capitulate under further attacks. Iran weathered more than 20,000 strikes by the U.S. and Israel during the most active phase of the war. It nevertheless has continued to attack ships in the Persian Gulf, target U.S. troops and warships, and bring tough demands to the negotiating table.
“I believe one of the biggest mistakes Israel and the United States continue to make is assuming that another round of strikes against Iran, including attacks on critical infrastructure or the elimination of senior officials, could somehow bring down the regime,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence official.
Further bombing could cause the regime to further dig in and become more committed to its missile and nuclear programs, he said.
The U.S. and Israel destroyed much of Iran’s nuclear program in the shorter conflict of June 2025.
Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday that his agency hasn’t identified any activity to repair or reconstruct any of the facilities damaged by attacks in either of the two wars.
But he said his inspectors haven’t had access to the facilities to check and said the IAEA hasn’t been able to verify that Iran hasn’t diverted nuclear material. The U.S. has pushed Iran to allow inspectors to return, but it has resisted.
One of the remaining sites that has raised concern—Pickaxe Mountain—sits under hundreds of feet of rock.
Trump could use a fresh round of strikes to declare victory and then reduce America’s involvement in the war, even if those strikes don’t deliver a decisive blow, said Seth Jones, a defense and security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“I don’t think anything is going to permanently set back their program,” Jones said of Iran’s nuclear work, but strikes would allow Trump to “start to walk away and say that you had again set back Iran’s nuclear program this time.”
Iran has warned through public and private channels that it would respond to any attack with harsh strikes on economic and civilian targets across the region. It made similar threats ahead of the war, then hit U.S. bases and diplomatic facilities as well as energy facilities and airports across the Gulf.
Any Iranian retaliation this time would come as the U.S. and its Gulf allies are scrambling to restock supplies of missile defenses strained by waves of Iranian attacks so far in the war.
Despite the damage done by the U.S. and Israel, Iran retains a stockpile of hundreds to thousands of missiles and has used the lull in fighting to shore up its defenses and prepare new plans for retaliation.
The country is assembling new ballistic missiles from stockpiled parts. Israeli officials are concerned by the speed with which Iran has been rebuilding.
Middle East mediators are scrambling to revive talks with Iran to head off a new wave of combat. So far they have had little luck, with the U.S. insisting on discussing Iran’s nuclear program and Tehran laying out tough demands for resuming talks.
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Appeared in the October 28, 2026, print edition as 'U.S. Plans To Renew Striking Iran After Midterms'.