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Comment on "David v Goliath in Gaza"
We thank Arthur Milner for this comment on today's newsletter:
“… the resistance is now on track to win the war even if it takes a few more months.”
What do you mean by “win the war”?
And we thank Hugh Miles for this reply:
What a Palestinian ‘win’ in Gaza would look like is still unclear because the war is still not over (and they might still lose) but at a minimum, this means denying the occupation forces their war aims and being ready to continue the liberation struggle.
When you consider the imbalance of power between the two sides – a nuclear armed state vs a militia – this would indeed be a historic, extraordinary victory.
When viewed in the context of other national liberation struggles, the cost is also both normal and predictable.
The Palestinians have lost 100,000 dead and wounded so far and counting.
But the Russians sacrificed 30 million people in World War II to fight off Hitler. The Vietnamese sacrificed 3.5 million people against the Americans. The Algerians lost six million against the French over 132 years.
Depending on how it goes, a Palestinian victory could, however, be much more than just surviving to fight another day. As we wrote in today’s article it could mean the end of Zionism and the complete collapse of Israel. Such a prospect is never discussed in Western media but it is openly discussed in Israel. Some may think this unlikely but one year before the Berlin Wall came down who thought they would see the end of communism in their lifetimes?
As we wrote in today’s article, such a prospect has been given a great boost because of the shocking tactics Israel has employed in the war which have served to delegitimise it internationally and which could now lead to rapid developments in the BDS movement, as well as legal action against Israeli individuals and companies involved in the genocide. The economic and legal impact of this, combined with the Palestinians’ victory on the battlefield, could lead to large swathes of the Israeli population simply losing confidence in the future of their state and voting with their feet. In that case a tipping point could be reached in a matter of weeks, as happened at the sundown of other settler colonial projects like the French occupation in Algeria. 500,000 Israelis leaving the country out of a population of 9 million people is not an insignificant proportion. The demise of the apartheid regime in South Africa is another pertinent comparison. It also had full superpower support and every technological, military and financial advantage before it collapsed.
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David v Goliath in Gaza
Summary: despite Israeli claims and contrary to much of the reporting in Western media outlets, Israel’s war in Gaza is not going well but as it persists with its genocidal campaign risks grow of a regional conflagration.
The war on Gaza has come at an immense cost. At the time of writing the Gaza Ministry of Health says over 27,000 Palestinians have been killed and 66,000 wounded and more than half the buildings have been destroyed or damaged.
There is no way of knowing exactly how many of the dead are Hamas fighters as it is impossible to establish a methodical way of measuring numbers killed, but Israel has repeatedly spoken of the group being “severely weakened”, a claim amplified systematically, deliberately and voluntarily in compliant Western media.
However U.S. intelligence agencies recently estimated Hamas has lost just 20% to 30% of its fighters, far short of Israel’s goal of destroying the group and as many of the hostages have also not been released and rockets continue to be fired from Gaza, Israel has failed to achieve any of its stated war objectives.
Assuming no hitherto unknown way of eliminating the tunnels unexpectedly emerges, and the Palestinian resistance does not run out of weapons and ammunition, which seems unlikely, the resistance is now on track to win the war even if it takes a few more months.
Put simply, this is because neither the Israeli military nor public can stomach long wars and Israel’s internal divisions, which predated 7 October and which we have written about in the past, have been tearing the country apart.
There are many signs things are going badly for the Israelis. The IDF says 560 soldiers have been killed so far. Given its record for truth telling it is safe to say that means the real number is several times higher. Nearly half a million Israeli citizens have fled the country, Sunday was the busiest day since October 7 with 30,000 Israelis leaving Ben Gurion Airport, the economy is suffering and 300,000 additional psychiatric patients are reported to need treatment due to war-related trauma. Israeli mental health bosses have warned the national mental health system is on the verge of collapse.
More importantly, huge political rifts continue growing wider both within the government and among the general public.
An Israeli soldier interrogating a wounded Palestinian in West Gaza city [photo credit: IDF]At the public level, the hostages’ relatives are wreaking havoc for Netanyahu, blocking traffic outside his house in Jerusalem and in December bursting into a committee meeting in Israel’s parliament.
On the governmental level, Israel’s war cabinet, which has overall responsibility for the Gaza campaign, is deeply split about strategy and how to bring the hostages home.
IDF Chief of Staff and war cabinet member Gadi Eisenkot has said it was time to “say bravely that it is impossible to return the hostages alive in the near future without an agreement [with Hamas]”, and that Israel should consider halting the fighting for a “significant” period of time as part of any such deal.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on the other hand have repeatedly argued that the only way to bring the hostages home is to continue the war by maintaining intense military pressure on Hamas.
Then there is the extreme right in the Netanyahu government, such as the Ministers of Finance, National Security and Heritage. They endorse the rebuilding of settlements in Gaza, the “voluntary emigration” of Palestinians and even dropping a nuclear bomb.
These internal disputes over how to prosecute the war go to the heart of Israel’s military strategy and are crippling national morale and the war effort.
Furthermore, as Sami Hamdi explained in last Thursday’s podcast, the longer the war goes on the greater the chance it will spread in the region, potentially with very far-reaching consequences.
The biggest risk in terms of escalation remains the possibility of a full-blown conflict with Iran. So many potential clash points exist between the US and Iran throughout the region if the war does not stop this seems almost inevitable sooner or later. Whether it happens in days, weeks, months or years, nobody can say.
In Yemen, the US and its partners are steadily being sucked into a quagmire of their own making by picking a fight with the Huthis which they can never hope to win.
The US and UK may just about protect their own vessels but after 9 years of war with Saudi Arabia the resilience of the Huthis to withstand external attacks is undiminished and protecting the 50 odd merchant ships passing through the Bab Al Mandeb each day is a losing proposition. In fact, since the US began its strikes on the Huthis last month the rate of attacks has actually increased.
If these strikes continue, the Huthis have already warned there will be consequences. And it could be Saudi Arabia taking the first hits. A limited strike like the one on the Abqaiq–Khurais crude oil stabilisation plant in 2019 would be manageable, but if a bigger war breaks out the Saudis could soon be in very serious trouble. Their nightmare scenario: Huthis invade from the south, Iran-backed militia from Iraq attack from the north, sleeper cells in the Eastern Province, Kuwait and Bahrain strike from the east, thousands of missiles hit targets throughout Saudi Arabia and the regime collapses.
In the West Bank, with Palestinian deaths closing in on 400 and settler vigilantes rampaging unchecked, another powder keg could explode at any time.
If the Palestinians there lose what little faith they have left in the Palestinian Authority they can simply confiscate PA police weapons and turn them on Occupation troops and settlers, opening a new front against Israel.
Egypt and Jordan could also see significant escalations in 2024 if the war continues, more remote possibilities to be sure but nothing can be ruled out.
Egypt is in far worse shape economically than it was in January 2011 when the country erupted in popular revolution and Jordan has been witnessing the largest wave of solidarity with Palestine in its history, including a general strike observed by millions.
So far the vast majority of Jordanians and Egyptians have stopped short of directly accusing their leaders of betrayal and complicity in Israel’s genocide but this could change at any time and if it does history shows the situation can unravel fast.
Some in the US administration and thoughtful Israelis understand that continuing the war poses more danger to Israel now than stopping it. They can see that the longer it goes on, the more Israel delegitimises itself, threatening the very existence of the state.
Preventing Israel’s demise requires an immediate end to the war but, crucially, in a way in which Hamas cannot be seen to win. The obvious way to achieve this would be through the peace talks now going on in Paris.
If Hamas can be persuaded to accept a temporary truce, which it currently refuses without guarantees for a longer-term ceasefire, this would serve both to save Israel’s face and at the same time relieve the pressure on Joe Biden by showing the world he has done his utmost to end the bloodshed. This could then be extended and extended until it became permanent.
Ironically, Biden is actually keener to stop the war and save Israel than Netanyahu, whose main priority is staying out of prison. Unfortunately for Biden however, within his administration support for Netanyahu, though dented, remains strong, with the Israeli PM even claiming he has more support than the president. Just as the UK has to have its Gaza policy dictated by the US, so Biden has little choice but to go along with Netanyahu because he cannot afford to be seen to be undermining him or letting Israel down.
Biden’s desire to stop the war is not because he has any sympathy for the Palestinians. Rather it is for political reasons due to the massive shift in public sentiment both in America and internationally as the world recoils from the genocidal tactics the IDF is deploying.
In America, thus far the shift has been restricted mainly to young people, not Washington's powerful lobbies, but divisions are deepening and splintering the Democratic caucus.
Internationally, the US is facing mounting accusations of double standards and hypocrisy, especially, as Tharwa Boulifi observed in last Friday’s newsletter, after the bombshell International Court of Justice ruling.
Members can leave comments about this newsletter on the Today's Newsletter page of the Arab Digest website
Copyright © 2024 Arab Digest, All rights reserved.
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London, W1B 3HH
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