Kellogg’s Homework
The “Deep State” continues to pressure the new U.S. Administration to “not give in to any of Moscow's proposals and create from day one of direct negotiations, a position of strength that will eventually force Moscow to compromise and send a clear message to China, Iran and North Korea that the United States is back in strength and glory.”
The decision by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg, to postpone his trip to Kyiv made big news, especially since it coincided with Trump expressing sympathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin given Biden’s push for Ukraine to join NATO. Another factor was Zelensky’s erratic interview with American blogger Lex Fridman, where former comedian mixed complaints about insufficient Western aid with expletive-laden language.
Kellogg will most likely make this trip sooner or later, after January 20, when his boss suffix “elect” will be dropped and Trump officially becomes President. However, he should use the remaining time to do some homework.
At this point, Trump’s ideas to end the war are not clear, and conditions for peace declared by Moscow and Kyiv are almost diametrically opposed. In addition, Russia is waging war not only with Ukraine but with over 50 countries, often called the “collective West,” who are using Ukraine as a proxy. They invested heavily in this war and wanted to get something back. Their goal, at least until recently, was not to save nonexistent freedom and democracy in Ukraine but to inflict strategic defeat on Russia to preserve the unipolar world order under Western leadership. It was Josep Borrell, the former European Union’s foreign policy chief, who described the West as an idyllic “garden” of prosperity and the rest of the world as “mostly a jungle,” which explains why, for them, Russia’s insistence on transitioning to the multipolar world order is unacceptable.
Trump will try to end the war: “I want people to stop dying.”
Many unsolicited advisors to Kellogg warned him not to yield to any Moscow demands and, “from the first day of direct negotiations, to establish a position of strength that would ultimately force Moscow to compromise and send a clear message to China, Iran, and North Korea” that “the United States is back.” Still, Trump wants to bring the war to a conclusion by seeking a cease-fire and negotiating a settlement by repeating, “I want everyone to stop dying.”
This is an honorable goal, but it would be impossible to achieve without understanding the roots of this conflict. The following two sources could help Kellogg and his team do some homework and bring the summary to Trump’s attention.
The first is a declassified, after 30 years of waiting, 70-paragraph telegram written by E. Wayne Merry, a leading political analyst at the US Embassy in Moscow, in March 1994, criticizing American policies aimed at radical economic reforms in Russia. Due to objections from the U.S. Treasury Department, Merry could not obtain permission to publish the telegram. Still, it became public only after the National Security Archive filed a lawsuit under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). Its essence lies in the fact that the radical market reforms of “Shock Therapy,” pushed by Washington and led by American advisers, was the wrong economic recipe and destructive for Russia. In the same place, Merry warned of the long-term consequences of these reforms, which would recreate hostile relations between Russia, the United States, and the West.
Of course, Merry’s opinions are not a sensation since there are many other materials about the catastrophic events in Russia in the ’90s. For example, the report of the US Congressional delegation from September 2000 states that after the collapse of the USSR, President Clinton’s predecessors, from Truman to Reagan, could only dream of such American-Russian relations, which he inherited. American values, including free enterprise and democracy, enjoyed astounding prestige and popularity among Russians. Building ties with the United States was a top priority for the Russian leadership. Until 1993, Moscow harmoniously cooperated with Washington on almost the entire range of international issues, including arms control that culminated in the START-2 treaty, which reduced the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia by 66%, and missile defense, on which President Bush and President Yeltsin began negotiations aimed at amending the 1972 ABM Treaty, necessary to account for the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. However, the congressmen continued the years of “bad advice.” The culmination of the Clinton administration’s fatally flawed macroeconomic policy towards Russia came in August 1998, when Russia’s default on its debts and the ruble’s devaluation led to its complete economic collapse. By all accounts, this disaster was more serious than America’s collapse in 1929.
In August 1999, in an article titled “Who Robbed Russia?” Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, who is now one of the most outspoken critics of Russia, writes: “What makes the situation with Russia so sad is that the Clinton administration may have squandered one of the most valuable assets imaginable, namely the idealism and goodwill of the Russian people that emerged after 70 years of communist rule. The catastrophe in Russia may haunt us for several more generations.”
Closer to current events, Kellogg’s negotiators need to read Scott Horton’s book Provoked. In it, Horton describes the history of collective actions by all successive US administrations after the end of the Cold War. From the expansion of NATO to the east, the economic policy of “shock therapy,” the Balkan and Chechen wars, the color revolutions, accusations of election interference, and ultimately the brutal conflict in Ukraine, all show who is to blame and what really happened. Here are some quotes from well-known American experts.
“Scott Horton has become an invaluable chronicler of the devastation caused by our interventionist foreign policy. In his new book, Provoked, he tears the covers off the mountains of lies used to justify Washington’s embezzlement of billions of dollars and countless Ukrainian lives in a futile war with Russia. Truth is the best disinfectant, and Scott Horton’s crucial report on this terrible chapter of U.S. foreign policy is like a general cleaning. Read this book and get copies for your friends… and opponents!” says Ron Paul, a former congressman from Texas.
“Provoked is manna from heaven for anyone who wants to know where the extreme Russophobia in the West came from, as well as the central role the United States played in causing the Ukraine war. Horton provides a detailed account of America’s foolish and dishonest behavior toward Russia in the years since the Cold War ended.” – John J. Mearsheimer, R. Wendell Harrison, Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago.
“Scott Horton’s important new book traces America’s journey to war and intervention through a succession of presidencies and builds a case that points to a frightening, potential final destination for the United States: isolation and alienation from most of the world. Scott’s message is simple. Stop now before it’s too late.” — Col. Douglas Macgregor, U.S. Army (ret.)
“Scott Horton is a treasure. He is also the neocons’ nightmare. He knows their deceptions and lies, and he is fearless in exposing the disasters they have wrought. Provoked is the most thoroughly researched, rationally grounded, and compellingly presented assault on war and defense of peace written in English in the post-9/11 era. It will become the standard against which all similar works are measured and indispensable reading for all who need to understand how the American government has time and again brought civilization to a terrifying precipice.” — Judge Andrew P. Napolitano, NY Times best-selling author and commentator, Host of Judging Freedom Podcast.
“Scott Horton is perhaps the country’s most incisive and, without question, its most indefatigable advocate for a sane U.S. foreign policy towards Russia. If you really want to know how we’ve arrived at this, the most dangerous point in relations with Russia since the Cuban Missile Crisis, then read this.” — James W. Carden, former State Department adviser, senior consultant to the American Committee for U.S.-Russia Accord.
In the remaining time before the start of direct negotiations, Kellogg should bring to Trump’s attention the summary of these documents to better understand the roots of this conflict, reach an honorable exit from this war, and start a new page for US-Russia relations that would benefit both nations and the world.