The Weizmann Institute in Rehovot is a brain centre for Israel’s
nuclear and military dominance; training Dimona scientists, feeding Unit
8200, developing AI, and powering cyber and surveillance warfare
In his magnum opus, the Muqaddimah, the North African polymath Ibn
Khaldun (1332-1406 CE) presented his most profound contribution about
the trajectory of dynasties and civilizations, his theory of cyclical
rise and fall which likened civilizations to living organisms, with a
natural lifespan of birth, growth, maturity, and decay.
There are multiple reasons beyond the recent war with Iran to believe Israel is now entering the decay phase.
Firstly, the genocide. Since Israel broke a two-month truce in March
and imposed a total siege on Gaza it has inflicted enormous civilian
suffering on the Palestinians but still has not achieved any of its war
aims, namely defeating Hamas, freeing its prisoners or displacing the
population. In some cases the IDF is now reoccupying territory in Gaza
which it already ‘cleansed’ three times and June was one of the deadliest months this year for the IDF. As Andreas Krieg explained in his recent Arab Digest podcast, when Israel is not winning against Hamas it is losing.
Secondly, the demise of Israel’s reputation internationally. Israel
has irrevocably lost longstanding widespread international public
support, to be replaced by growing indifference, opposition, and
outright revulsion. The victory of Zohran Mamdani over Netanyahu’s lawyer Andrew Cuomo in the race to become the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City in the 2025 election underlined this.
The speed with which this transformation is happening is genuinely remarkable. Consider the "sea change" reported recently by CNN
in sympathy levels for Israelis and Palestinians among rank-and-file
Democrats in the United States. Polling showed between 2017 and now
their sympathies swung from +13% for Israelis to +43% for Palestinians
and among "young" (18-49) Democrats from +14% for Israelis to +57% for
Palestinians - an astonishing 71-point swing. Any Democratic candidate
running for president in 2028 should take note.
A third crucial factor pointing to Israel's decline is changes within
Israeli society itself. In the Muqaddimah Ibn Khaldun wrote that the
cycle of civilization is primarily driven by the concept of 'asabiyyah, which can be translated as "social cohesion" or "group solidarity." When a group with strong 'asabiyyah conquers
and establishes a state or dynasty, they are fueled by their collective
purpose. Then as the new ruling group settles into urban life, they
become accustomed to luxury and ease. Their 'asabiyyah gradually
weakens over generations (he often suggested a lifespan of about three
generations or around 100-120 years) which leads to internal divisions
and a loss of the original vigour and discipline. Eventually, the
weakened dynasty becomes vulnerable to another group with strong 'asabiyyah, often from the periphery or a more "barbaric" region, thus restarting the cycle.
In the Israeli context, the founding generation enjoyed strong 'asabiyyah
characterised by a spirit of self-reliance and focused dedication to
consolidating the newly established state. Later generations however
have, in many cases, exhibited a diminished sense of civic
responsibility and a greater preoccupation with individualistic pursuits
and factional agendas. Social issues common to other Western societies
have become prevalent, like drug addiction, family instability, and sexual abuse. Even before October 7 2023 Israeli commentators were making apocalyptic predictions about collapse. "Jews will kill Jews," warned ex-Prime Minister Yair Lapid in April.
A significant, related change has been Israel’s orientation towards
religion. The founding generation was largely secular which aligned with
the views of Western colonial powers which helped create Israel.
Contemporary Israeli society has become increasingly religious,
resulting in a less pragmatic approach to decision-making and increased
friction with the international community.
While the founding generation were acutely aware of and grateful for
external international support, contemporary Israeli leaders have
exhibited hubris, bragging about their genocidal intent and even displaying disdain
towards their primary ally, the United States. Historically, hubris and
a detachment from geopolitical realities often contributes to a state’s
decline.
A fourth important factor is Israel’s relationship with Arab regimes.
For years, Arab countries have provided security for Israel, often at
little direct cost to Israel itself. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Morocco, Bahrain and Jordan all use their influence to advance Israel’s interests and suppress the spirit of resistance within their own populations. Above all, the Palestinian Authority
has played an outsized role in maintaining Israel’s security
arrangements. In the wake of the genocide, however, the long-term
viability of this system is increasingly being called into question.
Arabs want freedom, justice and self-determination, as well as a return
to the Islamic fold, as evidenced by last year’s Syrian revolution, and
sooner or later they are going to get it, stripping the West of its
client regimes and Israel of the protection they provide.
Israelis are persistently aware of their state's artificiality,
forcibly inserted in the region in contradiction of both history and
geography. This manifests as constant insecurity, a sense that the
current inability of the surrounding region to expel this implanted body
is an exceptional situation and that one day the original state of
affairs will return. Even after normalisation
with some Arab governments, this sense of unease regarding the
long-term durability of these arrangements perseveres and the experience
with the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, where the initial suppression
of Hamas was followed by Gaza becoming the epicentre of Palestinian
resistance serves as a cautionary example.
For colonial powers the idea of decolonisation always appears
unthinkable, or at least a very distant and undesirable prospect, until
after it occurs. The fall of Rome seemed unthinkable at the time but
inevitable to historians afterwards. The sun even set on the British
Empire and once it had, something that had once seemed immutable became
in retrospect a historical inevitability.
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