Re: [Salon] Is Israel's sunset approaching?

[Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com>]

Comment on "Is Israel's sunset approaching?" (2)

We thank James Spencer for this comment on today’s newsletter:

An interesting piece as ever, for which thank you. A couple of thoughts:

It's not just on the Democrat side that there is a generational divide in the US: "Young Republicans are fueling the GOP’s generational divide on Israel". Some of that may be questioning US support specifically for Israel, and some merely general MAGA isolationism. Interestingly, there is a similar shift in Germany - Israel's staunch defender within the EU - particularly with the rise of AfD: "Germany’s rising far-right AfD is split over Israel. Jews call party ‘a danger’ either way". Over the next ~15 years, that's likely to have a major impact on Western support for Israel.

On asabiyyah, there have indeed been many Israelis who did not like being down range of Iranian ballistic missiles, but there was a very rapid return of reservists scattered globally following HAMAS's attack, most secular Jews came off their pre 07 Oct 23 protests against the Judicial Overhaul to answer their mobilisation orders, and again from their protests over the continuation of the Gaza conflict before the attacks on Iran. That suggests that asabiyyah is still reasonably strong within the Jewish Israeli population (although the success of the judicial overhaul is likely to alienate many secular Jewish Israelis.)

The West is concerned about the "theocrats" in Iran getting nuclear weapons. However, as a nuclear weapons-state - Israel - gets increasingly theocratic, even Israel's current supporters in the West may begin to get concerned.

In addition to your points, I'd note that the characters currently in power are unusual: both Netanyahu and Trump are consummate politicians; both have been able to keep fractious coalitions together. However, both are also in their late 70s, so probably not much longer in power. Much of the future trajectory will depend on their successors, whoever they may be.

Finally, what happens if Israel does collapse? The West is unlikely to accept 7 million immigrants... 

The Editor replies:

Israel’s collapse, as we have discussed before, besides being a calamity of unfathomable proportions for Jews, would lead to comprehensive changes in the entire regional system. 

The current crop of Arab rulers, who have put all their eggs in the Israeli basket, would all likely go directly into history’s dustbin. Their dictatorships, installed and maintained by the West to protect Israel, would no longer be required in the same way so the potential would arise for a more normal political life to develop in the Arab world and a much improved relationship between Islam and the West. 

In Palestine itself, Hamas would presumably take charge, like other successful national liberation movements. Recall the famous words of Margaret Thatcher’s spokesman, Bernard Ingham, before the fall of the apartheid regime in South Africa, that anyone who believed the ANC would ever form the government there was "living in cloud cuckoo land".

The most profound impact, however, would likely be felt in countries where Zionism is strongest, like the US, UK, Germany, Canada and Australia. There the impact would be as keenly felt as the Algerian War of Independence was in France, which dramatically reshaped the nation's political landscape and social fabric. Algeria’s liberation led directly to a severe political crisis in France and significant political instability, including terrorist acts and an attempted coup by military personnel. Its loss marked the definitive end of the French colonial empire and the mass exodus of around 900,000 European-Algerians (pieds-noirs), for which the French government was unprepared, as well as social tensions and a sense of betrayal among the repatriates. All this should be expected in the West.

Regarding Israel’s nuclear weapons, Israel’s nuclear doctrine is famously characterised by a policy of deliberate ambiguity, often referred to as "nuclear opacity" (Hebrew - Amimut). Despite this, it is universally acknowledged that Israel possesses nuclear weapons and a sophisticated delivery capability.

The "Begin Doctrine" states that Israel will not allow any enemy state that seeks its destruction to obtain nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction.

The "Samson Option", widely discussed by analysts, refers to Israel's ultimate deterrence strategy: the threat of massive nuclear retaliation as a "last resort" if the state faces an existential threat or is on the verge of being overrun.

While the spectre of nuclear conflict between Iran and Israel is frequently discussed and naturally evokes profound fear, it is highly improbable due to a confluence of strategic, logistical, and geopolitical factors. Firstly, the historical precedent for nuclear weapon use is unique: the U.S. bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. This sole instance occurred under very specific conditions that are entirely absent in the contemporary Middle East. Crucially, the U.S. knew with absolute certainty Japan possessed no nuclear retaliatory capability, nor did it have nuclear-armed allies. Furthermore, Japan's insular geography limited the immediate impact of nuclear fallout on non-belligerent nations. This set of circumstances allowed for a calculated use of force without fear of direct nuclear counter-attack or widespread collateral damage.

Unlike the U.S. in 1945, neither Israel nor the U.S. can possess 100% certainty that Iran lacks latent nuclear capabilities or the capacity for rapid weaponisation, even after a conventional or nuclear strike. The mere possibility, however small, of Iranian nuclear retaliation, or the transfer of nuclear materials to proxies, transforms the risk calculus from a contained operation into a potentially suicidal gamble.

Furthermore, Iran is roughly 75 times larger than Israel. A few, or even five, atomic bombs would not destroy it. To genuinely "end" Iran through nuclear means would require an immense number of warheads, escalating the conflict to apocalyptic proportions – a highly improbable scenario.

A fundamental principle of international relations dictates that the use of a particular weapon legitimises its use against the aggressor. If Israel were to employ nuclear weapons against Iran, it would, in effect, declare that such an act is justifiable, thereby inviting nuclear retaliation against itself. With its population highly concentrated around urban centers like Tel Aviv, Israel is exceptionally vulnerable. A single nuclear weapon could cause catastrophic devastation. This imbalance in vulnerability makes a nuclear first strike by Israel a profoundly irrational and self-destructive act, particularly given the uncertainty regarding Iran's immediate nuclear capabilities.

Besides that, Iran borders three declared nuclear powers: Pakistan, Russia, and China. Any significant nuclear attack on Iran would risk widespread radioactive contamination affecting them, as well as Arab states and Azerbaijan. It is inconceivable that these nations would remain silent or inactive in the face of such an environmental catastrophe or regional destabilisation, potentially inviting retaliatory measures or severe international condemnation that would isolate Israel globally outweighing any strategic gain.

The primary goal of Israel's nuclear opacity and presumed arsenal, however, is deterrence – to dissuade potential adversaries from launching existential attacks by presenting an unacceptable cost. This may be one of the reasons Iran stopped the war when it did: rather than push Israel into a corner it was safer to leave Israel bloodied so it collapses politically over a period of time.

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On Mon, Jul 7, 2025 at 6:20 AM Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com> wrote:

Is Israel's sunset approaching?

Summary: Israel's recent military setbacks against Iran and Hamas, a significant loss of international support, particularly among US Democrats, and a weakening of internal social cohesion ("asabiyyah") within Israeli society, as well as a shift towards religious rather than pragmatic decision-making, means at 76 years old Israel is showing signs of decline and may not reach 88 years like the Crusader Kingdom of Jerusalem. 

English control over Ireland lasted 800 years. The French occupation of Algeria lasted 132 years. The Crusader Kingdom of Jerusalem in Palestine lasted 88 years. Whether Israel, which is just 76 years old, will make it to 88 looks increasingly unlikely following Benjamin Netanyhau’s June 13 surprise attack on Iran. Though Bibi and the systematically deceitful Western media celebrated the war as a “historic success” the truth is plain to anyone with a smartphone and a critical mind: the US had to intervene because Israel was perhaps one or two weeks away from total defeat. Even with US help Israel failed to eliminate Iran’s nuclear enrichment program and Iran is now more not less likely to acquire nuclear weapons in future. Not only did Israel fail to achieve regime change, the expansion of bombing to include civilian targets drove Iranians to rally around the flag giving the regime greater control over the country than before the campaign started.

Israel’s reputation as a military power, meanwhile, was shattered. Its vaunted air defences failed as missile stocks nearly collapsed. Iranian missiles sowed confusion as many strategic targets were struck including the Haifa and Ashdod refineries, the Weizmann Institute and the nuclear facility at Dimona. Much more was undoubtedly covered up because Israel systematically censors the media and satellite images are withheld.

In desperation, ordinary Israelis publicly apologised to Iran and called on their government to stop the war. Israeli analysts declared the country to be on the verge of total collapse. Thousands fled to neighbouring countries in kilometre long queues. El Al received 25,000 applications for flights in 24 hours. The statistics from the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University tell the story: 29 fatalities, 3508 injured, 15,000 internally displaced, 41,650 property claims. 

Then when the war ended, while Iranians danced in the streets Israelis looked stunned and ashen-faced. Trump himself stated: "Israel got hit really hard. Oh Boy, those ballistic missiles took out a lot of buildings". "It was the United States of America that saved Israel".

The Weizmann Institute in Rehovot is a brain centre for Israel’s nuclear and military dominance; training Dimona scientists, feeding Unit 8200, developing AI, and powering cyber and surveillance warfare

In his magnum opus, the Muqaddimah, the North African polymath Ibn Khaldun (1332-1406 CE) presented his most profound contribution about the trajectory of dynasties and civilizations, his theory of cyclical rise and fall which likened civilizations to living organisms, with a natural lifespan of birth, growth, maturity, and decay. 

There are multiple reasons beyond the recent war with Iran to believe Israel is now entering the decay phase.

Firstly, the genocide. Since Israel broke a two-month truce in March and imposed a total siege on Gaza it has inflicted enormous civilian suffering on the Palestinians but still has not achieved any of its war aims, namely defeating Hamas, freeing its prisoners or displacing the population. In some cases the IDF is now reoccupying territory in Gaza which it already ‘cleansed’ three times and June was one of the deadliest months this year for the IDF. As Andreas Krieg explained in his recent Arab Digest podcast, when Israel is not winning against Hamas it is losing. 

Secondly, the demise of Israel’s reputation internationally. Israel has irrevocably lost longstanding widespread international public support, to be replaced by growing indifference, opposition, and outright revulsion. The victory of Zohran Mamdani over Netanyahu’s lawyer Andrew Cuomo in the race to become the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City in the 2025 election underlined this. 

The speed with which this transformation is happening is genuinely remarkable. Consider the "sea change" reported recently by CNN in sympathy levels for Israelis and Palestinians among rank-and-file Democrats in the United States. Polling showed between 2017 and now their sympathies swung from +13% for Israelis to +43% for Palestinians and among "young" (18-49) Democrats from +14% for Israelis to +57% for Palestinians - an astonishing 71-point swing. Any Democratic candidate running for president in 2028 should take note. 

A third crucial factor pointing to Israel's decline is changes within Israeli society itself. In the Muqaddimah Ibn Khaldun wrote that the cycle of civilization is primarily driven by the concept of 'asabiyyah, which can be translated as "social cohesion" or "group solidarity." When a group with strong 'asabiyyah conquers and establishes a state or dynasty, they are fueled by their collective purpose. Then as the new ruling group settles into urban life, they become accustomed to luxury and ease. Their 'asabiyyah gradually weakens over generations (he often suggested a lifespan of about three generations or around 100-120 years) which leads to internal divisions and a loss of the original vigour and discipline. Eventually, the weakened dynasty becomes vulnerable to another group with strong 'asabiyyah, often from the periphery or a more "barbaric" region, thus restarting the cycle.

In the Israeli context, the founding generation enjoyed strong 'asabiyyah characterised by a spirit of self-reliance and focused dedication to consolidating the newly established state. Later generations however have, in many cases, exhibited a diminished sense of civic responsibility and a greater preoccupation with individualistic pursuits and factional agendas. Social issues common to other Western societies have become prevalent, like drug addiction, family instability, and sexual abuse. Even before October 7 2023 Israeli commentators were making apocalyptic predictions about collapse. "Jews will kill Jews," warned ex-Prime Minister Yair Lapid in April.

A significant, related change has been Israel’s orientation towards religion. The founding generation was largely secular which aligned with the views of Western colonial powers which helped create Israel. Contemporary Israeli society has become increasingly religious, resulting in a less pragmatic approach to decision-making and increased friction with the international community. While the founding generation were acutely aware of and grateful for external international support, contemporary Israeli leaders have exhibited hubris, bragging about their genocidal intent and even displaying disdain towards their primary ally, the United States. Historically, hubris and a detachment from geopolitical realities often contributes to a state’s decline.

A fourth important factor is Israel’s relationship with Arab regimes. For years, Arab countries have provided security for Israel, often at little direct cost to Israel itself. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Morocco, Bahrain and Jordan all use their influence to advance Israel’s interests and suppress the spirit of resistance within their own populations. Above all, the Palestinian Authority has played an outsized role in maintaining Israel’s security arrangements. In the wake of the genocide, however, the long-term viability of this system is increasingly being called into question. Arabs want freedom, justice and self-determination, as well as a return to the Islamic fold, as evidenced by last year’s Syrian revolution, and sooner or later they are going to get it, stripping the West of its client regimes and Israel of the protection they provide. 

Israelis are persistently aware of their state's artificiality, forcibly inserted in the region in contradiction of both history and geography. This manifests as constant insecurity, a sense that the current inability of the surrounding region to expel this implanted body is an exceptional situation and that one day the original state of affairs will return. Even after normalisation with some Arab governments, this sense of unease regarding the long-term durability of these arrangements perseveres and the experience with the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, where the initial suppression of Hamas was followed by Gaza becoming the epicentre of Palestinian resistance serves as a cautionary example.

For colonial powers the idea of decolonisation always appears unthinkable, or at least a very distant and undesirable prospect, until after it occurs. The fall of Rome seemed unthinkable at the time but inevitable to historians afterwards. The sun even set on the British Empire and once it had, something that had once seemed immutable became in retrospect a historical inevitability.

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